Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[starlord]

No he doesn't have to and if I was in his position I wouldn't either with a so called "friend" attempting to backstab you like that.

no one said he *has* to. it'd be a lot smarter thing to do.
unless, of course, he was trying to rile up "anti-SJW identity politics" types and alienate warren fans.

[Edge-]

no one said he *has* to. it'd be a lot smarter thing to do.
unless, of course, he was trying to rile up "anti-SJW identity politics" types and alienate warren fans.

Considering Sanders plays in "identify politics", this would be a strange angle for him to take.

[Dug]

no one said he *has* to. it'd be a lot smarter thing to do.
unless, of course, he was trying to rile up "anti-SJW identity politics" types and alienate warren fans.

Sanders is doing just fine

[starlord]

Considering Sanders plays in "identify politics", this would be a strange angle for him to take.

and yet here i am being berated by bernie fans for identity politics. lol.
which goes back to my original point that he embraces toxic elements.

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Sanders is doing just fine

if he lets this drag on and deepen perhaps not.

[Edge-]

and yet here i am being berated by bernie fans for identity politics. lol.
which goes back to my original point that he embraces toxic elements.

I'm not a big Sanders fan, but I disagree. Some of his supporters are hot-garbage of the highest order, but he's largely been pretty fine himself. He can't control them all, and he doesn't seem to support them (rather he's been critical of some of their behavior when it makes the news), so I can't blame him for what isn't in his control.

This whole back and forth seems to largely be folks talking past each other rather than addressing points directly and it's kinda frustrating. Lots of hyperbole that adds nothing of value.

[starlord]

I'm not a big Sanders fan, but I disagree. Some of his supporters are hot-garbage of the highest order, but he's largely been pretty fine himself. He can't control them all, and he doesn't seem to support them (rather he's been critical of some of their behavior when it makes the news), so I can't blame him for what isn't in his control.

This whole back and forth seems to largely be folks talking past each other rather than addressing points directly and it's kinda frustrating. Lots of hyperbole that adds nothing of value.

i would vote for sanders if it came down to it, it just worries me that his cult in many ways seems to not differ much from trumpsters.

[Edge-]

i would vote for sanders if it came down to it, it just worries me that his cult in many ways seems to not differ much from trumpsters.

I don't entirely disagree with you here. He's not my first choice, but I'll throw behind him if he gets the nomination.

My bigger issue, as it seems with you, is with some of his supporters, not him.

[starlord]

I don't entirely disagree with you here. He's not my first choice, but I'll throw behind him if he gets the nomination.

My bigger issue, as it seems with you, is with some of his supporters, not him.

what some people need to realize, which is i know an unpopular opinion, that there is no magic bullet for all of the issues that plague the country.
trump voters thought he would be a magic bullet too.
bernie is not known for being particularly charismatic, and he will have to work very hard to convince his fellow lawmakers to coordinate with him. people shit talk obama when he had the same issue. the real change will happen at the congressional level.
i've seen a lot of talk about how "dems should be punished for not bowing to our whims", well its not a great punishment if those people sit and home and don't participate except when their pet candidate is up.
that just means they can be safely disregarded by the establishment.

[JohnBrown1917]

Where do you get this nonsense from?

I'm seriously curious where you can get indoctrinated to believe any of these basic premises.

When you're way too deep into liberalism and you start to pretend socialists and soc dems are forming alliances with fascist groups you have gone way too far out of touch to be taken seriously.

Which explains why they'd defend Biden.

[Fabray]

Sanders is doing just fine

No he’s not, 538 has him losing basically every single primary. Every one. I’d rather him than Biden too, but the bickering that has been going on for a week now is certainly going to hand the election to Trump. Everyone here should be pretending Biden is the best candidate they’ve ever seen, not letting conservatives and Europeans concern troll you into not voting out the biggest piece of shit to take breath in your lifetime.

[Milchshake]

Ya every week someone is SURGING!.

The story of the primary appears to be a small group of voters who floating around from candidate to candidate. They all got behind Warren, left her for Pete, then left Pete and are splitting between Bernie and Bloomberg.

Or that the media loves a horse race. And this small groups flocks to the surge candidate, because the see them on TV more that week.

Overall, no candidate has "surged" past their overall high for the years. Except Bloomberg, $100 million apparently buys you a genuine surge. So hang onto your hats. The caucus is just after the Superbowl.

[Orbitus]

I find it difficult to judge someone on comments from 43 years ago that they would most certainly have something to say about now.

So, how about something they started 40+ years ago, and keep doing it now? Because Trump has been doing exactly that with his fucking racism.

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Whatever you say you digusting anti-Semite. Why don’t you just go back to making edgy Hitler-worshipping posts on 4chan instead of spreading your vile prejudice to this forum?

[Infraction]

What am I reading here? How did you go from what @starlord said to get antisemitic comments and calling him a Hitler worshipping 4channer? I mean, what the actual fuck are you talking about?

[Gestopft]

Did we talk about Tucker Carlson being worried about Bernie Sanders yet? From a recent "totally not white nationalist why would you even say that" hour:

The candidate who makes it easier for 30-year-olds to get married and have kids will win the election and will deserve to win.

The rest of his diatribe looks like the usual garbage, but I think Tucker Carlson does understand better than most at Fox why Trump won, and what his weaknesses could be.

What am I reading here? How did you go from what @starlord said to get antisemitic comments and calling him a Hitler worshipping 4channer? I mean, what the actual fuck are you talking about?

I think it was basically some sort of "if you are going to call me sexist for saying something about Warren, I'm going to call you antisemitic for saying something about Sanders." Tit for tat, two can play at that game sort of thing.

[Wyrt]

Did we talk about Tucker Carlson being worried about Bernie Sanders yet? From a recent "totally not white nationalist why would you even say that" hour:



The rest of his diatribe looks like the usual garbage, but I think Tucker Carlson does understand better than most at Fox why Trump won, and what his weaknesses could be.

Carlson has these super weird, lucid moments where it seems like he might finally see reality of what's happening to middle class, and especially young middle class, in America. And then quickly shuffles back into his hole.

[Skroe]

Ya every week someone is SURGING!.

The story of the primary appears to be a small group of voters who floating around from candidate to candidate. They all got behind Warren, left her for Pete, then left Pete and are splitting between Bernie and Bloomberg.

Or that the media loves a horse race. And this small groups flocks to the surge candidate, because the see them on TV more that week.

Overall, no candidate has "surged" past their overall high for the years. Except Bloomberg, $100 million apparently buys you a genuine surge. So hang onto your hats. The caucus is just after the Superbowl.

The fundamental polling arc of the Democratic Primary hasn't changed since July 2019: a progressive field divided between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren that lasts into Super Tuesday will see both mathematically eliminated by Joe Biden on that day.

For the benefit of others, we will review.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination


To win in the first ballot, a candidate needs to get 1990 delegates. In the second ballot, an addition 766 superdelegates participate and the win requirement turns to 2373. This is a change from 2016. It is generally believed that it will be unlikely superdelegates ever vote again as a nominee will be resolved by the first round.


Democratic states allocate their delegates proportionally (so long as the candidate gets above 15%). Most use Primaries, but some use Caucuses. In 2016, Bernie did very well in caucuses but fell flat in primaries.


The first four states re Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

The first state, Iowa, allocates its delegates proportionally. So even the winner of Iowa - in this case looking to be a narrow Joe Biden victory - gets slightly more (3) delegates than the runner up, Bernie Sanders. But because of proportionality, the field is divided widely, likely with 4 winners. As the old saying goes "there is 4 ticket sout of Iowa.

New Hampshire and Nevada are, under currently polling, between Biden and Sanders with Warren falling just shy of 15%, thus getting no delegates. A narrow win by Bernie in NH (projected) nets him 2 more delegates than Biden. Biden wins Nevada narrowly the same way, and Warren falls short again, so both Bernie and BViden get roughly the same delegates 19 and 17. At this point, after one caucus and two primaries, Biden and Sanders are tied in delegates, and nobody else has won any since Iowa, including Warren.

The last contest before Super Tuesday, South Carolina on February 29th, sees Biden way ahead. He will get almost all of SC's delegates, and Bernie will get a few or zero at current polling. He is just shy of 15%. Expect this to be the new BernieBro cry line (the inequity of the 15% threshold).

The question is now, does Warren Stay in. If she does, she ruins Bernie's chances. If she doesn't Bernie could theoretically win, but it's tough.

Super Tuesday sees the following states vote:
Alabama (52) - Biden likely gets all of the Delegates
Arkansas (31) - Biden likely gets all of the Delegates
American Samoa (6) - Bernie likely wins them all.
California (415) - This is crucial. As it stands right now, Biden, Bernie and Warren engage in a three way split with Biden narrowly wining more delegates than Bernie, (26% and 25% respectively), and Warren about a third less, should she stay in. With Warren in Bernie is denied a crucial avenue of closing Biden's (thus far) ~100 delegate lead. With her out, he could in theory, win this state easily over Biden. By playing for a draw here, Biden closes a vital door for Bernie.
Colorado (67) - Likely another Biden-Bernie near split
Democrats Abroad - Bernie will almost certainly get all of them.
Massachusetts (91) - Either Warren or Biden, but a near split between them one way or the other. Recent polling has Biden. Bernie might get no delegates from here, funny enough. Massachusetts voters are funny.
Maine (24) - Likely another Biden-Warren-Bernie split, in that order (10-6-8)
Minnesota (75) - As it stands right now, Biden and Bernie get none, Warren gets some and so does Klobochar. This denies Bernie a vital avenue to advance.
North Carolina - A modest Biden victory according to current polling. He walks away with 57 delegates, while Bernie takes 29 and Warren 24. Warren in the race thus denies Bernie a gap closing mechanism again, and Biden in fact, expands the gap.
Oklahoma - Biden gets a majority. Bernie a minority. Warren none.
Tennessee - Bernie possible narrow victory over Biden. Warren none.
Texas (228) - A big prize. Biden will easily win this, likley getting 161 delegates to Bernie's 67. Warren will get none. By losing this (unlike California) she is essentially mathematically eliminated from being able to become the nominee unless she runs the board.
Utah (29) - Likely a Biden sweep of all delegates.
Virginia (99)- Likely a Biden-Bernie split, with a narrow Biden victory.
Vermont (16) - Bernie will take them all.

Thus ends Super Tuesday.

Should Warren Stay in, the breakdown looks like this:
Biden: 782
Bernie: 438
Warren: 239
Buttigeg: 10
Klobochar: 28

Biden will have opened a healthy lead... one that will be very hard for Bernie to recover from. Even if Klobochar leaves before Super Tuesday and Minnesota is split, it doesn't change it.

In the scenario Warren leaves before Super Tuesday, even if Bernie gets every single delegate she otherwise gets, he is still behind (but much closer). Generously, lets say he gets 2/3rds.

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After Super Tuesday it becomes a game of keep away. Warren will likely bow out by now, so let's think about where it ends up a month later (April 4th).

Idaho (20, March 10th) - Biden wins a majority over Bernie who gets a minority, but its a near tie.
Michigan (125, March 10th) - With Warren out, Bernie gets 2/3rds her polled share. Bernie wins 68 delegates to Biden's 57. Gap still doesn't meaningfully narrow.
Missouri (68, March 10th) - Biden wins modestly, 37-31 Bernie.
Mississippi (36, March 10th) - Biden wins big time, 22 to 14.
North Dakota (14, March 10th) - Biden wins big, but with 14 delegates it's hard to advance. Biden 9 to Bernie 5.
Washington (89, March 10th) - Bernie wins modestly over Biden, 48 delegates to 41 for Biden.

Northern Mariana (6 March 14th) Bernie wins over Biden, 4-2

The next big day is March 17th with Florida, Illinois, Georgia and Ohio. This could be the decisive day.

Arizona (67, March 17th) - Bernie wins modestly over Biden
Florida (219, March 17th) - Bernie eats 2/3rds of Warren's poll percentages, but Biden still wins big, with 144 delegate to 75 for Bernie.
Illinois (115, March 17th) - Same as above, biden wins solidly, 86 to 69.
Ohio (136, March 17th) - Biden wins modestly, 72 to 64, with the consolidation of Warren and Bloomberg voters.


Two more polls for March:

Georgia (105, March 24th) - Biden wins big here, 61 to Bernie's 44, with the consolidation of Warren voters as previously described.

Puerto Rico (51) - Biden wins here, but the delegate difference is neglible, 27-24.
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Now at the end of March, the tally is:
Biden at 1388 delegates
Sanders at 923
Warren at 239

The gap has only increased since the end of Super Tuesday at the start of the month, and Biden is well on his way to winning the nomination. Bernie needs to score big in the remaining states and pretty much wipe Biden out and force a deal at the convention, because as it stands, so long as there are a continous run of Bernie 48 - Biden 45 splits, or vice versa, it's impossible for Bernie to catch up.

There re lots of states left though. I'm going to go through the big delegate holders to llustrate the difficulty that Bernie has.

Wisconsin (84, April 7th) - A probably tie once the other candidates are removed, 42-42. A slight shift one way or the other wouldn't change things.
New York (274, April 28th) - A must win state for Bernie. Unfortunately he's still deep underwater here. Consolidating percentages, we're likely to see something like Biden getting 167 delegates and Bernie getting 107.
Pennsylvannia (186, April 28th) - Another must win state for Bernie, the same thing as New York basically applies. Biden walks out with 109 delegates and Bernie 77.

Now between the end of March tally and those last 4, I skipped a bunch of states on either side of it. So what does it look like?


Biden: 1706
Bernie: 1149
Warren: 239
Needed to win: 1990

Biden will easily get the remainder of those in states I skipped even if he loses every contest. And most of them are states where he is polling or likely to do better or just slightly worse than Bernie.

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This was unscientific and done by an online delegate calculator and arbitrarily assigning percentages to Biden and Sanders harvested from Warren and the others (but especially Warren) after a post-Super Tuesday exit. It is meant to illustrate how her leaving after Super Tuesday instead of before sets Bernie behind in a way he never recovers from.

So how can Bernie win? Warren has to drop out after South Carolina, and Bernie needs to be the beneficiary of a much larger share of her voters than 2/3rds. Perhaps almost all of them. But more than that Bernie needs to find a way to scale down a current massive loss (by nearly 100 delegates) in Texas on Super Tuesday, in Florida on March 17th (144 to 75 in this), and in the combined April 29th contests (about a total of an additional 100 behind).

he needs to find a way to narrow those losses, or turn them into modest victories - somehow. He also needs to have a very big moment in California. But that requires Warren getting knocked out before Super Tuesday, because California is that day.

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Moral of the story, Sanderistas will find one cockamamie reason to excuse his loss or another, but the simple fact of the matter is, he doesn't win in contests he has to and he loses contests he can't afford to. If he is going to be the nominee, he has to get Warren to leave, the sooner the better, and find a way to beat Biden in places Biden is currently polling a lot better than Sanders (and whose elections are just 6 weeks away).

Bernie is in deep trouble. Biden will not blow him out of the water like Hillary did in 2016, but the new lower the target without Superdelegates makes the number Biden has to aim for easier to achieve compared to Hillary (1909 compared to 2383). Hillary had to get more, but Biden (or any nominee in the lead who stays in the lead) can basically win earlier.

[Ghostpanther]

Well, well. Sanders is surging according to this recent CNN poll....https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/22/polit...nal/index.html

Overall, 27% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents back Sanders, while 24% favor Biden. The margin between the two is within the poll's margin of sampling error, meaning there is no clear leader in this poll. Both, however, are significantly ahead of the rest of the field, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14% and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11%. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg lands at 5% in the poll, while Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Andrew Yang each hold 4% support. Businessman Tom Steyer has 2%. No other candidate reaches 1% support.
Sanders has gained 7 points since the last CNN poll on the race in December

[Spectral]

No he’s not, 538 has him losing basically every single primary. Every one.

This isn't really how 538's forecast works though. They're not predictions, they're odds. I recommend reading Nate Silver's primer on how the model works. The biggest thing to know is there's a ton of path dependence - if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, this creates a big bounce, it doesn't just leave him as the perpetual underdog in every state going forward. He has a very real chance in both states, so this is hardly over in Biden's favor.

That said, all evidence points to Biden remaining the current odds on favorite - it just isn't some hopeless "better fall in line now" situation.

[JohnBrown1917]

This isn't really how 538's forecast works though. They're not predictions, they're odds. I recommend reading Nate Silver's primer on how the model works. The biggest thing to know is there's a ton of path dependence - if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, this creates a big bounce, it doesn't just leave him as the perpetual underdog in every state going forward. He has a very real chance in both states, so this is hardly over in Biden's favor.

That said, all evidence points to Biden remaining the current odds on favorite - it just isn't some hopeless "better fall in line now" situation.

2020 - the battle of senile.

[Skroe]

2020 - the battle of senile.

Most of us in anti-Trump would vote for inanimate objects over Trump.

Sentience is not even a requirement. It's not like Democrats will gain 60 votes in the Senate anyway. President Joe Biden will just sign the same two year deal budgets that Trump and Obama did, because its the only budget that can get through the legislature. President Bernie Sanders too.

In fact, I kind of perversely hope Sanders does get elected just so his supporters can watch that happen. I want them to watch him sign a $800 billion defense budget four times over and no M4A, just so they can learn a lesson in how sausage is made, so maybe... just maybe... they'll start to learn the art of the horse trade.

[Fabray]

This isn't really how 538's forecast works though. They're not predictions, they're odds. I recommend reading Nate Silver's primer on how the model works. The biggest thing to know is there's a ton of path dependence - if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, this creates a big bounce, it doesn't just leave him as the perpetual underdog in every state going forward. He has a very real chance in both states, so this is hardly over in Biden's favor.

That said, all evidence points to Biden remaining the current odds on favorite - it just isn't some hopeless "better fall in line now" situation.

Yeah, I know how it works, but the odds are in his favor in almost every state. That said, NH is the one that he has a chance of winning and of course that could change predictions going forward, but then he loses SC and they could go right back. My point was more about Bernie fans already talking like they won’t back Biden. You get them together with people like you, and it suppresses enthusiasm enough for Trump to win. I get why right wing people do it, it’s a great strategy, it’d just be nice for the other side to not make it so easy for them.