Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

You and most of the world. US is not special really in this, really. We have somewhat similar situation with tests - they are slow and so far only like 800 tests per day are done bottom line and we're population of 9 million. MoH hopes to increase that number to 2000 this week and they setup testing drive through labs across the country atm.

The only good news is that because local government was somewhat on the ball and started bunkering-up everything earlier than most, we don't have absolute catastrophe going on and still no deaths, but this will come.

Right now you can't get tested just because you want it, hope this will change next week.

Roche is rolling out millions of tests. Those will run on their range of mass testing machines, with maximum of 1.5 to 8k tests per 24h.

[Rumred]

Why only a week? All non-essential companies should be closing for the rest of the year, as thats roughly how long it will take to get over this.

Idk maybe people don't want an economic depression that makes the one we had in the 30's look like it was a roaring economy? If you shut down all "none essential" business for the rest of the year you are going to have hundreds of millions of people without jobs worldwide and a collapse that will make the worst-case scenario of this virus seem like a gift instead. A few months is about all we can sustain for a virus of this severity. This isn't a virus that could wipe out half the world's population. Steps need to be taken yes but shutting down the economy until the end of the year would result in a worse situation that will last far longer.

[TigTone]

I think this crisis is gonna bring out the worst in the general populace. Panic shopping is only the beginning. People are just selfish assholes.

Normally I have a little more faith in humanity but I will have to agree.

Very few people get crisis training and practice it.

Most people live life with a day to day mentality; this is now forcing them to live with their future In mind and that is frightening for those people. As we can see people will panic.

Also Kern County ,one of California’s largest counties, has it first confirmed case. A man(San Francisco native) passing through collapsed and has been hospitalized at a Bakersfield Hospital.

[Onikaroshi]

Why only a week? All non-essential companies should be closing for the rest of the year, as thats roughly how long it will take to get over this.

And how do you expect anyone to eat/live/do anything if their place of business is closed for a year? 2 weeks is going to put a strain on a lot of people alone, 4 weeks would be putting people out on the street, a year would be full economic failure, not even a year.

[ranzino]

I wonder if they gonna enforce closing shops that are not needed. So far, the shop I work at only reduced working hours by one, even though it was already said shops should close.
...

our firm is not a shop, we do packaging for L'Oreal, so they could sell nice sortiments in supermarkets. as usual in march we were doing sunblocker sortiments for the holiday season which will sell next to nothing for sure, unless germany recovers and travel is no longer prohibited. hopefully firm was paid already by L'Oreal for our fancy work
packaging cosmetics is always serious business, our health condition is paramount. directors become paranoid if we sneeze, dont even think about corona suspects. we would close for a month if real shit happens IMHO

[Svifnymr]

Those people are a bunch of ignorant assholes, truly.

It's spring break, college kids are by definition Ignorant Assholes.
From what I understand, Fort Lauderdale closed the beach yesterday, so this weeks kids have moved indoors to drink.

[PrimiOne]

After talking to a local doctor about the Coronavirus, I have a question I hope someone can answer:
There were many other disease outbreaks in recent decades: Ebola, bird flu, pig flu off the top of my head. According to an infographic someone posted some pages ago, pig flu had 30x more deaths than Coronavirus. But there was no panic then, no worldwide shutdowns. In my country at the time of pig flu, corrupt politicians used the epidemic to steal some millions from the budget under pretense of vaccine, that was it. No quarantines, some people wore masks, business as usual besides that.

Why is there such fuss and disruption over a disease outbreak less deadly than previous ones?

Less deadly? No,it's potentially way more deadly.

You can't just look at the current mortality rate and ignore the reproductive number of the virus ( how many people infect someone with covid-19). The problem with this virus is that it can infect ent300ire populations in a blink like nothing we have ever seen.

I'll make some simple maths:if gone unchecked the virus is doubling the cases around every 2/3 days ( unchecked is "suggesting" isolation instead of enforcing). This is the rate we are seeing in Italy,Spain,France,Germany...

Let's see at USA. Today is 4000 (more actually but let's use that number for simpliciy) following that progression (double every 3 days).

+3 8000
+6 16000
+9 32000
+12 64000
+15 128000
+18 256000
+21 512000
+24 1 MILLION
+27 2 MILLIONS
+30 4 MILLIONS
(are you scared yet?)
+33 8 MILLIONS
(you get the concept by now but I'm gonna keep going anyway)
+36 16 MILLIONS
+39 32 MILLIONS
+42 64 MILLIONS
+45 128 MILLIONS
+48 +200 millions (this is the point that gets weird because over 50% of population infected models don't work)

Yeah...by the start of May the virus could have infected 60% of USA.

More numbers to open your eyes: 20% of people needs medical treatment 5% needs ICU.

Do you think USA can handle 50 milllions patients and 12 millions ICUs in the next 2/3 months? I tell you no,they can't.

How many of that 20% could get treatment in this scenario? We don't know.
How many will die if not? We don't know but most of the 5% that needs ICU.

The mortality rate right now is kind of low but we are already starting to see grow up in places like Lombardy and Madrid ( > 6%) ... and the moment you can not handle not even a tiny fraction of the 20% that needs treatment we can see 10% mortality rate of more....and that >10% is applied on >60% poplation.

So come June-July ( the virus does not kill in one day) we could be looking at 25-30-40 millions deaths....IN JUST 3-4 MONTHS from the beginning of the outbreak.

Does this scenario ( the one the WHO is warning) solves your doubts about why the world is in panic?

[Gaidax]

Why only a week? All non-essential companies should be closing for the rest of the year, as thats roughly how long it will take to get over this.

You can't close everything down for a year - many people will be out of means to survive.

[ranzino]

It's spring break, college kids are by definition Ignorant Assholes.
From what I understand, Fort Lauderdale closed the beach yesterday, so this weeks kids have moved indoors to drink.

yay corona party.... get them a healthy smack on the back of heads and then quarantine them, no exception.
Berlin "earned" 42 infections from last weekend parties before the overall closedown of party locations was enforced. it spreads fast, unfortunately.

[Svifnymr]

Just heard over the radio that Americans have been hoarding guns and ammunition over the Covid-19 pandemia. Think it was ammo.com or something that has something like 70% increased sales on ammunition? Guess you could try and shoot the virus out of the air or something.

When I went to the range a month or two ago, I shot up the last of my cheap 5.56. I've been spending money on a miniature game (Infinity) so didn't bother ordering a new bulk order (cheaper to buy 1000 rounds ever year instead of 100 rounds ever month or whatnot).
So yeah, guess I should have ordered last month. Everyone is cleaned out online.

I mean, I've still got plenty in my EOTWAWKI supply, so I feel fine, but it'll probably mean a price increase once ammo frees up again.

[Khaza-R]

No, there are 100+ variants of Covid-19, that you can possibly group in 3-4 different groups of variants.

Just going off the research at John Hopkins

“Preliminary evidence suggests two strains of SARS-2-CoV circulating: one associated with milder illness (~30%), the other with severe illness (70%)”

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Here is hoping to that the police will break out the water cannons and spray the retards with disinfectant.

You and me both

[Svifnymr]

yay corona party.... get them a healthy smack on the back of heads and then quarantine them, no exception.
Berlin "earned" 42 infections from last weekend parties before the overall closedown of party locations was enforced. it spreads fast, unfortunately.

While I'm sure they're spreading plenty of diseases, of all sorts, as of a few days ago the only people we had in that age-range that were infected were from a local college that just returned from a school trip to Europe, of all things. Of course, once they all go back home, it'll probably spread outward, but no one should be hanging out with college kids anyway.

[PhaelixWW]

Just going off the research at John Hopkins

“Preliminary evidence suggests two strains of SARS-2-CoV circulating: one associated with milder illness (~30%), the other with severe illness (70%)”

More scientists have come out and clarified that calling them "strains" isn't entirely accurate, as they don't appear to be genetically different enough to cause a reinfection. "Variant" is likely the more apt designation.

In either case, the idea is that recent illness and recovery from one should leave your antibody levels high enough to fight off even a different enough strain that would normally cause a reinfection if exposure happened a year or more down the road from recovery.

But, as everything here, nothing is conclusive. We'll know more later.

[Onikaroshi]

More scientists have come out and clarified that calling them "strains" isn't entirely accurate, as they don't appear to be genetically different enough to cause a reinfection. "Variant" is likely the more apt designation.

In either case, the idea is that recent illness and recovery from one should leave your antibody levels high enough to fight off even a different enough strain that would normally cause a reinfection if exposure happened a year or more down the road from recovery.

But, as everything here, nothing is conclusive. We'll know more later.

Too bad it takes so long to confirm things (just the way research works) would be nice if there was a "lesser" variant that kept you beefed up against the "greater" variant.

[Zantos]

Surprised that most of the plans being put into place to combat this issue are all coming from a state level. The federal government doesn't seem to really be doing, well, anything to curb this. They have a travel ban in place right now, but they arn't putting in any polices or restrictions. Just suggestions. Heck, my county just banned gatherings of 250 people or more. More and more cities are having to be the ones to shut down cinemas and bars.

We need the government to start directing these efforts and getting everyone on the same page. Heck, even that stimulus package wont really do much, if it passes through congress even. The rumored number is $1,000. If thats for a month, well, it won't ensure the bills get paid.

We are quickly heading toward italy levels of infections. My state alone just doubled in the past day.

[Onikaroshi]

Surprised that most of the plans being put into place to combat this issue are all coming from a state level. The federal government doesn't seem to really be doing, well, anything to curb this. They have a travel ban in place right now, but they arn't putting in any polices or restrictions. Just suggestions. Heck, my county just banned gatherings of 250 people or more. More and more cities are having to be the ones to shut down cinemas and bars.

We need the government to start directing these efforts and getting everyone on the same page. Heck, even that stimulus package wont really do much, if it passes through congress even. The rumored number is $1,000. If thats for a month, well, it won't ensure the bills get paid.

We are quickly heading toward italy levels of infections. My state alone just doubled in the past day.

1000 is barely rent in a lot a places, it's a joke.

[Egomaniac]

More scientists have come out and clarified that calling them "strains" isn't entirely accurate, as they don't appear to be genetically different enough to cause a reinfection. "Variant" is likely the more apt designation.

In either case, the idea is that recent illness and recovery from one should leave your antibody levels high enough to fight off even a different enough strain that would normally cause a reinfection if exposure happened a year or more down the road from recovery.

But, as everything here, nothing is conclusive. We'll know more later.

As far as I'm concerned, even if it's proven that re-infection is impossible, if people want to act like it is...let them. An overabundance of caution isn't going to make people less safe. I'm far more concerned about the people that are acting like they won't get sick at all.

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Too bad it takes so long to confirm things (just the way research works) would be nice if there was a "lesser" variant that kept you beefed up against the "greater" variant.

You've pretty much described vaccines.

[Shadowferal]

hmm..anyone know why the 80,000 or so recovered cases aren't being put on the news?

Funny that you mention that, I'm near certain that such a number is likely greater for the simple facts are too few tests done, and that there are people that probably had it, recovered, and never knew it. (so no tests needed on those individuals)

Give it a week before governors start feeling the heat...people with nothing to do isn't good at all.

[Yunru]

Oh the fun:


Is it realy worth keeping store open for 3 more days. Just to sell those 2 games.

[Shadowferal]

yay corona party.... get them a healthy smack on the back of heads and then quarantine them, no exception. Berlin "earned" 42 infections from last weekend parties before the overall closedown of party locations was enforced. it spreads fast, unfortunately.

Florida?
They'll need the national guard. (I'm sure that will go well)