2020-2021 NFL Thread

[Kyanion]

If the Packers traded Rodgers, I think they end up with a 30+ million dead cap hit based on his signing bonus proration. Not to mention the fans would revolt. He's going nowhere, this is a team being a bit to aggressive with a succession plan.

Edit: by the way, I think it's silly to try to groom a guy for a few years now. The cap hit for those first years is so low, and so many qbs have come in and had immediate success, that I think you're better off waiting until the last minute before replacing a top guy like Rodgers. Then you get a new guy and surround him with above average talent because you just took 25 mill off your cap when the old guy left, and you hope to hit lightning in a bottle.

Remember, other than the Patriots, the recent super bowl winning QBs include Mahomes in his second year, Eagles starting a journeyman backup, a severely limited Peyton Manning, and young Russell Wilson. There are plenty of guys out there, no need to panic and draft someone early. This is just a bad pick by the Packers.

You nailed it, the problem is basically WASTING the low cap hit years of drafting a 1st round QB. It is why it is such a luxury to have that QB under a 5 year deal and maximize 4-5 years of that limited window to pay elsewhere to build a complete team. Yes there will still be a low cap hit window in what, years 3-5, but this means Love sat for 2 years and who knows how he'll pan out when he gets to play. You basically said it yourself though, it is silly grooming a QB for a few years when so many QBs can play in year 1 and play well. Mahomes is a year 2 guy but still going past 2 would just be silly.

[eschatological]

If the Packers traded Rodgers, I think they end up with a 30+ million dead cap hit based on his signing bonus proration. Not to mention the fans would revolt. He's going nowhere, this is a team being a bit to aggressive with a succession plan.

Edit: by the way, I think it's silly to try to groom a guy for a few years now. The cap hit for those first years is so low, and so many qbs have come in and had immediate success, that I think you're better off waiting until the last minute before replacing a top guy like Rodgers. Then you get a new guy and surround him with above average talent because you just took 25 mill off your cap when the old guy left, and you hope to hit lightning in a bottle.

Remember, other than the Patriots, the recent super bowl winning QBs include Mahomes in his second year, Eagles starting a journeyman backup, a severely limited Peyton Manning, and young Russell Wilson. There are plenty of guys out there, no need to panic and draft someone early. This is just a bad pick by the Packers.

You're underestimating that the Eagles season was made on the back of Wentz having an MVP worthy season before he was injured, while Foles had a good playoff run. Three of those teams, then, had star QBs on rookie contracts (cf Seattle's inability to pay the Legion of Boom once Russell was off the rookie K), Peyton had a once-every-15-years defense. The model these days is win on a rookie contract, or win with a Hof QB/QB on an MVP-esque season, or win on a once-in-a-generation defense (which beat a rookie contract on an MVP season). This isn't the mid '00s any more, you don't let a 1st round QB sit on the bench for 2-3 years. At most, you sit him 15 games like Mahomes. You need to find out what you have by year 3, so you can be stocking up for a run in years 3-5 depending on how good the rookie QB turns out.

So to the Packers situation: Rodgers is under contract til 2024. There is no way they can let Love sit on the bench for 4 years. So at some point, they have to walk from Rodgers. They can (in a fiscally responsible way) walk away in 2022, so 2 years. That's still a lot of time for Love to sit on the bench. So the only option is to really restructure him (if he'll let them), and trade him after this season. They *have* to find if Love is viable. Plus, it's obvious Love is LaFleur's young QB he wants to build around. Plus, it'll split the fanbase as soon as Rodgers limps his way out for another series after being hit too hard again, and LaFleur will probably want to bow to that pressure and put Love in. And Rodgers won't stand for that.

It's set up to be a volatile situation.

[Mightytasty]

I think a late first rounder is worth it for a decent backup QB *shrugs*. And if Love turns out to be good, the Packers can just trade him. Looking at his tape, I think there's even a chance for Love to be really really good.

[Kyanion]

So to the Packers situation: Rodgers is under contract til 2024. There is no way they can let Love sit on the bench for 4 years. So at some point, they have to walk from Rodgers. They can (in a fiscally responsible way) walk away in 2022, so 2 years. That's still a lot of time for Love to sit on the bench. So the only option is to really restructure him (if he'll let them), and trade him after this season. They *have* to find if Love is viable. Plus, it's obvious Love is LaFleur's young QB he wants to build around. Plus, it'll split the fanbase as soon as Rodgers limps his way out for another series after being hit too hard again, and LaFleur will probably want to bow to that pressure and put Love in. And Rodgers won't stand for that.

It's set up to be a volatile situation.

Maybe LaFleur just says fuck it and makes the switch and doesn't care about the bitching. I mean if you're going to make this draft choice you have to know the potential drama surrounding it.

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I think a late first rounder is worth it for a decent backup QB *shrugs*. And if Love turns out to be good, the Packers can just trade him. Looking at his tape, I think there's even a chance for Love to be really really good.

I mean to be fair it is a 1st and a 4th. They had to trade to even get him.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

I think a late first rounder is worth it for a decent backup QB *shrugs*. And if Love turns out to be good, the Packers can just trade him. Looking at his tape, I think there's even a chance for Love to be really really good.

Nah. If you put a first round pick into a QB, the expectation is they're your starter within 2 years now. Even with Rodgers, him sitting for 4 years was a huge outlier.

I am willing to guarantee you in 2022 one of three things happens:

1. Love hits and Rodgers is traded.
2. Love hits and gets traded.
3. Love busts and Gutekunst at the very least is out the door.

[Vetali]

GB is trying to stick with tradition and raising their next QB under their star QB. Lets say they cut Rodgers after 2022... the earliest they feasibly could, it gives them 2 years with Love including the 5th year option. Then you know what you have and you can either sign him to a mega deal or move on. Its pretty safe to assume going 5 years down the road is if you want an above average QB then you can wave goodbye 20% of your cap. Its been that way for a while now and its not changing.

Its not a great move, I would rather my team maximize their star players. If they hadn't traded up I would feel less negative about the pick.

As far as the Seahawks pick, I think they wanted to trade down but the GB trade really fucked that up. I have to wonder if after Bobby Wagner having a down year that they really knee jerked and decided to pull the trigger so they didn't lose their guy. Doesn't make sense at all, but I have a feeling they are really scared about their LB game play. Numbers show they were a glaring weak spot in their defense.

[draynay]

I got a rock. Oh wait, we got an offensive lineman. Not a flashy pick haha.

OLine picks for the Saints have been really good though, so I can't fault it, they've been nailing those picks and getting instant contributors.

[Kyanion]

OLine picks for the Saints have been really good though, so I can't fault it, they've been nailing those picks and getting instant contributors.

Oh no doubt, the pick makes a lot of sense and either he or Mccoy will replace Warford after this year (unless they trade Warford this year, which is possible). Though a part of me wonders if there was an impact player to be had that could help even more to win the Super Bowl. If Brees plays a few more years it makes plenty of sense to go OL, if this is indeed Brees last year, I wanted something more. Then again, we could have been the Packers and went QB which helps not at all in the short term.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Oh no doubt, the pick makes a lot of sense and either he or Mccoy will replace Warford after this year (unless they trade Warford this year, which is possible). Though a part of me wonders if there was an impact player to be had that could help even more to win the Super Bowl. If Brees plays a few more years it makes plenty of sense to go OL, if this is indeed Brees last year, I wanted something more. Then again, we could have been the Packers and went QB which helps not at all in the short term.

Honestly the only spot where I'm like "yeah that could use an upgrade" is maybe in their secondary. Other than that they feel like they should have the talent to make a run at the Super Bowl, but maybe the Minneapolis Miracle has just ingrained losing into their DNA.

[Kyanion]

Honestly the only spot where I'm like "yeah that could use an upgrade" is maybe in their secondary. Other than that they feel like they should have the talent to make a run at the Super Bowl, but maybe the Minneapolis Miracle has just ingrained losing into their DNA.

I don't think the Minneapolis Miracle hurt them, they came back just as strong the following 2 years only to get the Screwjob no call against the Rams and then just played poorly in the 2nd vikings playoff game. They've got the talent to get to and win the Super Bowl, no question. They just have to stay healthy which is always a crapshoot in this game.

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I always love glancing over the 'First Round Draft Grades' the experts love to push out there. One on the Ringer gives out only A's/B's/C's. Like you do know there are D's and F's right? Not every team had a good selection, I kind of wish more 'experts' had the balls too be honest and call a shit pick for what it is.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Frankly most of those As are gonna end up being Fs when we do the "let's re-grade the 2020 draft class" in another 5 years. I want to say all they grade is "did the pick fill a position of need" but honestly at this point I think they just hand out grades based on how much social media buzz was generated.

[Kyanion]

Frankly most of those As are gonna end up being Fs when we do the "let's re-grade the 2020 draft class" in another 5 years. I want to say all they grade is "did the pick fill a position of need" but honestly at this point I think they just hand out grades based on how much social media buzz was generated.

Yeah but even then not every team filled a need, or in some cases reached like mad to get their player (see Raiders, Oakland). I just want analysts to be blunt and honest on what they really think about a pick, rarely ever happens.

[Darththeo]

I just don't get how a 43 year old qb playing on a new team with a new coaching staff for a year is going to really tell us anything.

If Brady has success with Tampa AND the Patriots tank bad, it will be arguable the success was Brady's not Belichick.
If Brady has no success and Patriots still win the AFC east, it will be arguable the success was Belichik.

Anything else, not going to tell us much.

[xskarma]

If Brady has success with Tampa AND the Patriots tank bad, it will be arguable the success was Brady's not Belichick.
If Brady has no success and Patriots still win the AFC east, it will be arguable the success was Belichik.

Anything else, not going to tell us much.

Why should there be a "winner"? Can;t the success have been just as much both?

Even the best teams out there rarely have success for more than 1 or 2 years before sliding into decline again. Patriots kept it up for basically 20 years with only minor blips.

When you have consistent success for 20 fucking years it's not just 1 person or another, it's the total of the organizational structure, from ownership to coaching to players. Everyone had to play their part to get there.

[dwightyo39]

Why should there be a "winner"? Can;t the success have been just as much both?

Even the best teams out there rarely have success for more than 1 or 2 years before sliding into decline again. Patriots kept it up for basically 20 years with only minor blips.

When you have consistent success for 20 fucking years it's not just 1 person or another, it's the total of the organizational structure, from ownership to coaching to players. Everyone had to play their part to get there.

I agree.

It's also comical to me when pats fans say they will be done with football if the dynasty crumbles. They literally just got to enjoy 2 decades of greatness. Talk about spoiled.

[ProphetFlume]

If I'm seeing this right Brees can walk after this season (assuming we have a season). Saints let Brees walk and trade for Aaron Rodgers?

Jesus this would be a double dick punch. First Rodgers leaving, then going to that garbage team.

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Why should there be a "winner"? Can;t the success have been just as much both?

Even the best teams out there rarely have success for more than 1 or 2 years before sliding into decline again. Patriots kept it up for basically 20 years with only minor blips.

I think if Belichick royally fails it would be eyebrow raising because coaches don't age out the same as players. But even if Brady played like Favre did in his last season I don't think it should diminish him in any way. Old QBs can just die in an off-season, like Favre and Manning. Remember when Peyton's arm was so weak his final season he got benched?

[Darththeo]

Why should there be a "winner"? Can;t the success have been just as much both?

Even the best teams out there rarely have success for more than 1 or 2 years before sliding into decline again. Patriots kept it up for basically 20 years with only minor blips.

When you have consistent success for 20 fucking years it's not just 1 person or another, it's the total of the organizational structure, from ownership to coaching to players. Everyone had to play their part to get there.

Well, Patriots Haters seems to think there needs to be one. There are ones that say it was Brady others that it is Belichik. There are a lot of Brady haters that want Brady just to be a system QB (not that many people who make that argument even understand what that means.)

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Jesus this would be a double dick punch. First Rodgers leaving, then going to that garbage team.

What about the Bills? That's one other team that'd make sense either this year or next.

[eschatological]

Why should there be a "winner"? Can;t the success have been just as much both?

Even the best teams out there rarely have success for more than 1 or 2 years before sliding into decline again. Patriots kept it up for basically 20 years with only minor blips.

When you have consistent success for 20 fucking years it's not just 1 person or another, it's the total of the organizational structure, from ownership to coaching to players. Everyone had to play their part to get there.

Whoa there, cowboy. The Pats haven't drafted a pro bowler since 2013. They've succeeded on the basis of a HoF QB and a HoF coach, which are the biggest predictors of success, with one phase where they signed Randy Moss, and drafted Gronk. They've basically fumbled through almost every organizational detail other than that, including multiple "rules violations," aka cheating, Aaron Hernandez, bungling the succession of Tom Brady with Jimmy Garapolo long before TB was ready to go, and not being prepared with Stidham when he WAS ready to go, poor draft classes, poor decisions like trying to sign AB even after the shitshow that was his last year, and so on, and so forth. Oh, and former players saying the atmosphere inside the building is horrific. CF this from a former player just yesterday, Aaron Dobson:

https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/s...02002812616704

The idea of "Patriots Culture" being so vastly superior to everyone else's culture is horseshit, through and through. People put up with a lot of shit because they won a lot. That's the culture. And now that it's going away, I look forward to the franchise's mythos imploding.

[ProphetFlume]

What about the Bills? That's one other team that'd make sense either this year or next.

That'd be interesting. Bills really disappointed last year in the postseason and because of that I'm skittish at any kind of positivity toward them this season.