Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Bakis]

That's called state propaganda.

From other scientists, economists, journalists in OTHER countries?
Hah, stupid fin

Time will tell though, in reality what Sweden is doing is the same as other countries just that we don't go all out trying to shut down society and the economy but keeping the curve of the virus flattened out.

Shutdown like most others will lead to a prolonged curve cos the more shutdown the longer to reach herd immunity.

A vaccine and herd immunity is the same and only solution to pathogens. And there won't be an effective vaccine for at least 2022 by most scholars in the field.

[Puupi]

From other scientists, economists, journalists in OTHER countries?
Hah, stupid fin

Oh please do share those sources.

Svennebanan.

[Pannonian]

More and more professors, politicians and doctors across the world are praising Sweden's way of handling the disease. Been lots of articles in Swedish media about it past week.

Funny, the lastet numbers i saw comparing Sweden to my country (which had a lockdown for 4 weeks): The economy is hit in the same way for both countries, but Sweden has 4 times more deaths (compared to population).

So, maybe Sweden is a success compared to the U.S. but so is every "shithole" - compared to developed EU nations, Sweden isn't great, or even good.

[Tuor]

Time will tell though,

True.

in reality what Sweden is doing is the same as other countries

Not really, what other countries have done, was ensuring that the reprodutive number is below 1, and only then they started opening economy.

just that we don't go all out trying to shut down society and the economy but keeping the curve of the virus flattened out.

The problem is that it seems Sweden curve its starting to go exponential, which is not good.

Shutdown like most others will lead to a prolonged curve

Why don't you go out and give a look at the curves of Austria and Switzerland, they already flattening.

cos the more shutdown the longer to reach herd immunity.

Except, according to some people, the herd imunity might not even require the 70%, the spanish flu only infected like 20-30% of the world population, and then it disaperad.

A vaccine and herd immunity is the same and only solution to pathogens. And there won't be an effective vaccine for at least 2022 by most scholars in the field.

Feel free to dig on my post on this thread, i already reported the British vaccine that already started trials, and yeastherday i reported the Pfizer vaccine, that is already under trials in Germany, and about to start trials in the US.

[Bakis]

Funny, the lastet numbers i saw comparing Sweden to my country (which had a lockdown for 4 weeks): The economy is hit in the same way for both countries, but Sweden has 4 times more deaths (compared to population).

So, maybe Sweden is a success compared to the U.S. but so is every "shithole" - compared to developed EU nations, Sweden isn't great, or even good.

It's hard to compare deaths yet given there is no common way on what is to be counted and not as a death due to Covid-19.
This is common knowledge to anyone who try a minimum to read up on the crisis.

[Pannonian]

It's hard to compare deaths yet given there is no common way on what is to be counted and not as a death due to Covid-19.
This is common knowledge to anyone who try a minimum to read up on the crisis.

Alright, then look at the curve - in my country it is flattening right now, and we have comparable damage to the economy. So I'd argue, the swedish model isn't the best. At least compared to my country.

[Acidbaron]

It's hard to compare deaths yet given there is no common way on what is to be counted and not as a death due to Covid-19.
This is common knowledge to anyone who try a minimum to read up on the crisis.

Generally that information can be found what is included and what is not, it is also something you notice when looking at countries from within the same region. All in all i find it a rather macabre game trying to compete for the least deaths as if we are suddenly playing the corona world cup. Also nations that intentionally under report are going to create issues later on if a vaccine takes too long, as that means to save face for whatever reason they can't correctly map and track outbreaks.



Also this whole herd immunity debate, first of all it can't be humanely achieved in a short amount of time without a vaccine. The problem with people stating that their country is fine embracing the herd immunity is that you are not living on an island most of us are not, if you are from Australia or New Zealand you might be able to push for that as a valid strategy, however you'll damn your tourist sector by doing so. So even there you'll experience negatives for your economy.

So as we are all connected and there's really no globalized effort or even unified effort in any region in the world a vaccine is needed, because sadly this virus can survive rather well. And even if Sweden does better than others, their export will be hurting regardless if the rest of the world is taking longer they might gain more market share if no stories crop out that due to relaxed measures products are living the country that are contagious.

[Bakis]

Not really, what other countries have done, was ensuring that the reprodutive number is below 1, and only then they started opening economy

Hang on, none ensured that so far and none has started to open their economy in any broaders sense either.

Why don't you go out and give a look at the curves of Austria and Switzerland, they already flattening.

I dont understand the point of this argument from you. The only thing that matter is if there is herd immunity or a vaccine. It might flatten in alot of places but then it's better to start making a complex assessment.
For example, what is the percieved immunity currently, how will it be when the extremely possible second wave hits us, etc etc.

Except, according to some people, the herd imunity might not even require the 70%, the spanish flu only infected like 20-30% of the world population, and then it disaperad.

Dont see the point of this argument either.
Either my statement of "lockdown = less exposure = longer to reach herd immunity" is true or false.
Spanish flue was in 1918, I would be extremely coutious when making connections outside recent pandemics in terms of when a pandemic might disappear.

Feel free to dig on my post on this thread, i already reported the British vaccine that already started trials, and yeastherday i reported the Pfizer vaccine, that is already under trials in Germany, and about to start trials in the US.

I think it was yesterday I read that there are currently 89 different attempts of vaccines underway. We heard it before and will hear it again that "X looks promising in it's initial trials".
That being said I do hope we end up with one soon but given there are interests in play to project hope both from politicians and the market I will be keep on taking these reports with a grain of salt. Especially given the track record of producing vaccines.
Look, historicly including recent times it take years to produce an efficiant vaccine, not months.

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Generally that information can be found what is included and what is not, it is also something you notice when looking at countries from within the same region. All in all i find it a rather macabre game trying to compete for the least deaths as if we are suddenly playing the corona world cup. Also nations that intentionally under report are going to create issues later on if a vaccine takes too long, as that means to save face for whatever reason they can't correctly map and track outbreaks.



Also this whole herd immunity debate, first of all it can't be humanely achieved in a short amount of time without a vaccine. The problem with people stating that their country is fine embracing the herd immunity is that you are not living on an island most of us are not, if you are from Australia or New Zealand you might be able to push for that as a valid strategy, however you'll damn your tourist sector by doing so. So even there you'll experience negatives for your economy.

So as we are all connected and there's really no globalized effort or even unified effort in any region in the world a vaccine is needed, because sadly this virus can survive rather well. And even if Sweden does better than others, their export will be hurting regardless if the rest of the world is taking longer they might gain more market share if no stories crop out that due to relaxed measures products are living the country that are contagious.

I agree with you, that given todays world its a symbiosis of the two. I think that is one of the key differences with Swedens way of handling it and most others, that while waiting for a vaccine we will at least be further ahead in immunity.
I will pick US as an example cos there are many Americans here as well. The lockdown just meant a halted economy with little immunity gained. When the demands for opening the economy in whatever form they can agree on comes it will undoubtfully lead to it ramping up again. People, especially people not that well of would have to decide do I need money or my health.

In regards to Swedens economy, obviously we are taking fat hit like everyone else cos we are an exporting country and without raw material or parts from subcontractors in countries that can't deliever cos of restrictions our manufacuring industry suffer. But service sector or small business are less hit than they would have been with a lockdown.

[Tuor]

Hang on, none ensured that so far and none has started to open their economy in any broaders sense either.

Germany already started slowly openning, same with Austria.

As for my country, Portugal, the R# is already below 1, the State of Emergency ends on next 2nd of May, and the SE will be replaced by a less restritive State of Calamity. The current plan is to start openning shops with area below 200m2 and barber shops, cafes will and restaurants will start reopenning after the 18 of May, and so on... Slowly.

I dont understand the point of this argument from you. The only thing that matter is if there is herd immunity or a vaccine.

Not really, there is still the chance of the virus disapearing. An example, measles, it has an R0 a lot higher then Sars-cov-2, causes pandemics too, mostly in central europe, but it never reached the proportion of coronavirus. Ebola is another example, it never got as close to such a thing has herd imunity... Occasianally the virus just disapear.

It might flatten in alot of places but then it's better to start making a complex assessment.
For example, what is the percieved immunity currently, how will it be when the extremely possible second wave hits us, etc etc.

If we analise other pandemics, like the XIV century plague, or the spanish flu, yes, they all had second waves, but all of those second waves will be more localised.

Dont see the point of this argument either.
Either my statement of "lockdown = less exposure = longer to reach herd immunity" is true or false.
Spanish flue was in 1918, I would be extremely coutious when making connections outside recent pandemics in terms of when a pandemic might disappear.

Already answered in this post.

I think it was yesterday I read that there are currently 89 different (and seriuous) attempts of vaccines underway. We head it before and will hear it again that "X looks promising in it's initial trials".
That being said I do hope we end up with one soon but given there are interests in play to project hope both from politicians and the market I will be keep on taking these reports with a grain of salt. Especially given the track record of producing vaccines.

I have to agree.

Look, historicly including recent times it take years to produce an efficiant vaccine, not months.

True, but i typed something like this to @Forogil a couple of days ago, '' Hard times require hard measures'', and the point is that we have never in a situation like this where we could turn around. In 1918 there wasn't enought technology for a vaccine production, today we do have the technology, if we speed stuff, i'm sure somewhere at the end of this year, we will have a not just one, but several vaccines.

[Acidbaron]

I agree with you, that given todays world its a symbiosis of the two. I think that is one of the key differences with Swedens way of handling it and most others, that while waiting for a vaccine we will at least be further ahead in immunity.
I will pick US as an example cos there are many Americans here as well. The lockdown just meant a halted economy with little immunity gained. When the demands for opening the economy in whatever form they can agree on comes it will undoubtfully lead to it ramping up again. People, especially people not that well of would have to decide do I need money or my health.

In regards to Swedens economy, obviously we are taking fat hit like everyone else cos we are an exporting country and without raw material or parts from subcontractors in countries that can't deliever cos of restrictions our manufacuring industry suffer. But service sector or small business are less hit than they would have been with a lockdown.

If Sweden has the capacity to do so they are free to do so in my opinion, most concerns are from neighbouring nations worrying that it might spill over. I can relate to that as there's a different approach in Belgium in comparison to The Netherlands and at the height of the pandemic we ended up having to physically close borders, there was a real concern from the population that other nations might nullify part of your measures.

The economy has to be opened up again but i don't agree that the main motivator should be the economy especially not when your lockdown period has been relatively short and inconsistent over the entire nation. To stick to the subject of the US, what this virus does is expose weak systems in your nation something that happens with all crises arguably, that's why they feel forced to re open but in developed nations it should never have to come between a choice of infection, starvation or financial ruin.

Yes manufacturing is taking a rather large hit and i don't think this is the end either, once we start up again there will be work but those are generally from standing orders, the order book of this year for most big companies will be rather full for the largest part of the year. The issue is what comes after that and if globally or even in the region we are struggling that is going to be felt everywhere. As also as you said the supply of resources, parts, we are now falling victim to our optimal, profit driven margins, where redundancies in the chain do not exist.

For the time being i think the work restrictions are fine, production will be slowly ramped up again it is as you hinted going to be a case of learning to adapt to this situation for the coming months. However i do believe that a hard lockdown period was needed and nations that did not do that can be looking in to properly re opening, a lot of people can't really seem to wrap their head around the purpose of one. America is a prime example of that, where there hasn't even been a proper lockdown in place in certain areas and they are already speaking of reopening with an exit strategy that is poorly put together.

Everywhere else though, i do feel that exit strategies should slowly but surely try to re boot society.

[Trunksee]

Funny, the lastet numbers i saw comparing Sweden to my country (which had a lockdown for 4 weeks): The economy is hit in the same way for both countries, but Sweden has 4 times more deaths (compared to population).

So, maybe Sweden is a success compared to the U.S. but so is every "shithole" - compared to developed EU nations, Sweden isn't great, or even good.

Based off deaths and the current economy no Sweden is technically not winning on deaths but the speed of their recovery will be much faster and they wont be in store for the huge second wave coming. By doing what they are doing its stabilizing the future. When other countries spike again, and it will, do they shut down again only prolonging the recovery. Sweden wont have this problem.

[Puupi]

Based off deaths and the current economy no Sweden is technically not winning on deaths but the speed of their recovery will be much faster and they wont be in store for the huge second wave coming. By doing what they are doing its stabilizing the future. When other countries spike again, and it will, do they shut down again only prolonging the recovery. Sweden wont have this problem.

Their economy is just as hurt as their neighbours.

https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/coronakris...iantType=large

Restaurants, bars, schools and rock concerts aren't what's keeping the economies afloat.

Also this:

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/professor...-10-000-lar-do

Swedish professors have made their own models forecasting 10-20k dead in Sweden.

[Trunksee]

Their economy is just as hurt as their neighbours.

https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/coronakris...iantType=large

Restaurants, bars, schools and rock concerts aren't what's keeping the economies afloat.

I dont disagree with now. What i am trying to advise is that when other countries get the second wave are they going to react the same wave? Sweden can just keep doing what they are doing meaning they are stabilized.

[Puupi]

I dont disagree with now. What i am trying to advise is that when other countries get the second wave are they going to react the same wave? Sweden can just keep doing what they are doing meaning they are stabilized.

What they are doing is pointless economic-wise and just costs people's lives. It's anything but stable.

[dribbles]

Speak of the devil.

The UK just released their numbers today, and it looks like their official total jumped over 4.4k from yesterday, though they're reporting "only" 765 of those deaths are from yesterday, which means they're starting to catch up with some of their earlier under-reporting.

That puts the UK at an official total of 26.1k, only 5.3k shy of their IMHE prediction. Any bets on whether the IMHE ratchets up their prediction soon?

Also, UK has now "officially" passed France and Spain, and should pass Italy shortly.

Official total?

You mean the ONS (government funded organisation) massaging the figures upwards to scare a panicked people into following the UK government position in extending the now collapsing, as people are fed up, lockdown. How? Well they have very recently changed the way deaths are counted and from their updated methology two days ago a death can be counted as from Covid-19 under these circumstances and I directly quote...

If a death certificate mentions COVID-19 it will not always be the main cause of death, but may be a contributory factor.

Naughty, very very naughty.

So there you have it non corona deaths are now being counted as though they are. In plain English I heard from a friend of friend the other day that Bob went through the windscreen was then trampled on by a herd of cows before being run over by a tractor. Cause of death = Covid-19

Do all other countries report the same way?

[PhaelixWW]

I'll remember that when you criticize me for comparing the US to Europe again.

What, you'll remember that I said that such charts weren't really good for most comparisons, that at best they were useful at only the most generic of comparisons?

I mean, I'm not even using the chart to show a comparison at all. It was just the only chart I could easily find that showed Europe as a whole. I even made a specific effort to highlight only the European line. And I'm only showing the chart to show that the European rate as a whole hasn't noticeably gone down much yet. Specific areas are doing better, and specific areas are doing worse. But trying to evaluate Europe as a whole in any meaningful way is just difficult, especially now that there are vast differences in the way the different countries are handling this pandemic.

So, yeah, okay, feel free to remember that.

[Draco-Onis]

I dont disagree with now. What i am trying to advise is that when other countries get the second wave are they going to react the same wave? Sweden can just keep doing what they are doing meaning they are stabilized.

Since we don't know how long immunity last or whether the virus will mutate what they are doing is just plain stupid.

[PhaelixWW]

Hang on, none ensured that so far

Uh, if the infection is slowing down in a country, then that country has managed to bring the Re value to below 1. That's literally what that means.

I dont understand the point of this argument from you. The only thing that matter is if there is herd immunity or a vaccine.

No, sorry, there are other things that matter. Like not overwhelming your healthcare capacity. Not all of us live in countries or states with such a low population density.

Look, historicly including recent times it take years to produce an efficiant vaccine, not months.

We've never had this level of international motivation to come up with a vaccine before, either. With so many vaccines being developed, it's very likely that at least one of them will come to fruition in less than 12 months. There's certainly no guarantee, but this hardly equates to anything "historically".

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Based off deaths and the current economy no Sweden is technically not winning on deaths but the speed of their recovery will be much faster and they wont be in store for the huge second wave coming. By doing what they are doing its stabilizing the future. When other countries spike again, and it will, do they shut down again only prolonging the recovery. Sweden wont have this problem.

Sweden won't have that problem because their first wave just won't end.

I'm not sure why people have trouble seeing this.

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Official total?

You mean the ONS (government funded organisation) massaging the figures upwards to scare a panicked people into following the UK government position in extending the now collapsing, as people are fed up, lockdown. How? Well they have very recently changed the way deaths are counted and from their updated methology two days ago a death can be counted as from Covid-19 under these circumstances and I directly quote...

If a death certificate mentions COVID-19 it will not always be the main cause of death, but may be a contributory factor.

Naughty, very very naughty.

So there you have it non corona deaths are now being counted as though they are. In plain English I heard from a friend of friend the other day that Bob went through the windscreen was then trampled on by a herd of cows before being run over by a tractor. Cause of death = Covid-19

Do you have a few thousand links of those "Bob"s to share?

I mean, I don't know what you're even trying to support here, as your excess death far, far exceeds even the figure that you call "naughty". I mean, at worst you're looking at maybe 1% over-reporting due to this "very naughty" tallying. But the under-reporting is just massive. Are you going to ignore that your excess deaths are 36-41k right now, while your "official/naughty" count is still only 26k?

That's just a lot of "Bob"s, I guess.

[Granyala]

Sweden won't have that problem because their first wave just won't end.
I'm not sure why people have trouble seeing this.

I don't know what people expect with these herd immunity plans. I'm not seeing us reaching herd immunity anytime soon with infection values this low.

If we keep the current # of newly infected per day (say, 1200/d in Germany), napkin math would put the time frame until the remaining 65% of the population is infected (assuming a herd immunity of 70% and a current exposition level of 5%) at (83*10^6 people * 0.65)/1200 people/day = 44958 days. Or 123 years.
Needless to say, that wouldn't work.

Even if we assume, that the real infection rate is 10x of what is reported through tests, we would need 12 years to reach that 70%. Not to mention that in 12 years, that bug will mutate like crazy.

Am I missing sth. here? Must be.

[Puupi]

I don't know what people expect with these herd immunity plans. I'm not seeing us reaching herd immunity anytime soon with infection values this low.

If we keep the current # of newly infected per day (say, 1200/d in Germany), napkin math would put the time frame until the remaining 65% of the population is infected (assuming a herd immunity of 70% and a current exposition level of 5%) at (83*10^6 people * 0.65)/1200 people/day = 44958 days. Or 123 years.
Needless to say, that wouldn't work.

Even if we assume, that the real infection rate is 10x of what is reported through tests, we would need 12 years to reach that 70%. Not to mention that in 12 years, that bug will mutate like crazy.

Am I missing sth. here? Must be.

Yeah this really is the issue.

And if we are seeing daily infection numbers that which would make herd immunity possible; like 100k a day in Germany....

Needless to say what that would do to the health care system. Or well, in that scenario there wouldn't be a health care system anymore. The whole god damn society would collapse.