Wealthy buyers reportedly in 'mad rush' to leave San Francisco

[Stelio Kontos]

https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/...F-15324574.php

Amid the depths of a global pandemic and financial downturn, the demand for real estate is unexpectedly rocketing in wealthy regions outside San Francisco, reports Bloomberg. Agents say that demand is soaring in affluent areas around the Bay Area such as Napa, Marin and further afield in Carmel, as people who have the means look to get away from the city. Meanwhile, the market in San Francisco and Alameda County is still well below where it was last year.

Elsewhere, Lake Tahoe has also seen a surge in real estate interest. The prospect of living out of the city on an alpine lake while maintaining a career is appealing for a new generation of young buyers, as many tech companies have signaled that remote work may be the new norm for a long time.

“I’ve never seen the demand higher for Marin County real estate than when COVID-19 hit,” Sotheby's Josh Burns told Bloomberg this week, as real estate agents see a surprising uptick in wealthy buyers leaving San Francisco.

Agent Katrina Kehl of Compass warned her sellers not to expect much interest in their recent Mill Valley listing, as the country moves through an economic crisis. To their surprise, the couple received 13 bids and the home went over the $1.7 million asking price by "a lot," Kehl told Bloomberg. Sotheby’s agent Ginger Martin added that “there’s a mad rush to get out of the city.”

Meanwhile, the rental market in San Francisco has dropped significantly, with rates for one-bedroom apartments in the city dropping by 9.2% since June 2019, and hitting a three-year low.

However, buying a new home in an isolated haven in a nearby bucolic county is not an option for lower-income San Francisco residents, and some believe the trend is only exacerbating the wealth divide.

“This is an example of another way the most advantaged, the most affluent have isolated themselves from this latest crisis,” Patrick Sharkey, a sociology professor at Princeton University, told Bloomberg. “It’s a very small segment of the population that has another home that they can go take off to.”

Whether this change in demand away from San Francisco and into the suburbs is a short-lived reaction to the pandemic, or a more permanent change, remains to be seen.

Similar trends are showing up in other large cities in the US.

New York City: https://www.wsj.com/articles/people-...at-11587916800

Chicago/Illinois: https://www.npr.org/local/309/2020/0...linois-and-why

Seattle still has more people moving here than leaving, but talk is starting about the increasing numbers who are leaving: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...le-are-moving/

With the 'rona and other current issues exacerbating things, will there be an exodus from large cities for people who can afford it? And what will happen in large cities that lose too many wealthy or middle-class residents, tax-wise?

[Sorensen]

If big cities needed to die now is as good a time as any.

[Milchshake]

Dear Suburbs and Exurbs,

Please keep your Karens and edgy Gamergate youth.
Stop hasslin city folk about our diversity.

[Daedius]

I've been a hipster these past 20 years, living out in the countryside...

"A-hyuk!"

[Kaleredar]

Napa, Marin and Carmel are already considered pretty snobby rich-people areas.

If that lowers the prices of real estate in San Francisco so the people that actually live and work there can afford it... so be it.

[Lynarii]

I mean, from the sounds of things, these aren't wealthy people moving out of the big cities. It's them buying second (or more) homes so that they can walk away from current events when they feel like it.

[Acidbaron]

Napa, Marin and Carmel are already considered pretty snobby rich-people areas.

If that lowers the prices of real estate in San Francisco so the people that actually live and work there can afford it... so be it.

Only way to truly deal with this is to get rid of real estate being used as an investment and that means taxing properties where nobody actually lives for the majority of the year to the high heavens. With the exception of a few holiday locations perhaps that are otherwise really vacant anyway and thus not city areas.

[Rasulis]

Napa, Marin and Carmel are already considered pretty snobby rich-people areas.

If that lowers the prices of real estate in San Francisco so the people that actually live and work there can afford it... so be it.

According to Redfin data, SF is currently considered the most competitive housing market in the US right now. Most homes get multiple offers, often with waived contingencies. Homes sell for about 6% above list price and go pending in around 19 days. Hot Homes can sell for about 15% above list price and go pending in around 11 days.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Franci...7/home/1157841

Sold for $1,925,000 on June 12, 10% over list price of $1,750,000, and was only on the market for 3 days.

On the other hand, rent in SF has gone down a lot.

[Yadryonych]

And what will happen in large cities that lose too many wealthy or middle-class residents, tax-wise?

See Detroit

[Edge-]

See Detroit

SF would have to be a single-industry city, and have that industry largely move out at the same time. It's absolutely heavily invested in tech, but it's got a broad swath of industries from tech to banking and financial services and more.

So no, not really.

[Kokolums]

I'm guessing the property value of San Francisco real estate takes a pretty plunge when the nukes hit it during the upcoming civil war. I'd get the hell out of there too.

[Rasulis]

I'm guessing the property value of San Francisco real estate takes a pretty plunge when the nukes hit it during the upcoming civil war. I'd get the hell out of there too.

Ah. Imagine watching the mushroom cloud over the horizon with this view as a background. So totally worth it.

[Yadryonych]

I'm guessing the property value of San Francisco real estate takes a pretty plunge when the nukes hit it during the upcoming civil war. I'd get the hell out of there too.

God damn, you guys are really going to cater to us the rest of the world with such a sight? Don't spoil us this much

- - - Updated - - -

SF would have to be a single-industry city, and have that industry largely move out at the same time. It's absolutely heavily invested in tech, but it's got a broad swath of industries from tech to banking and financial services and more.

So no, not really.

He was asking generally about cities though and Detroit is pretty much what would happen to any city when solvent citizens leave

[Edge-]

He was asking generally about cities though and Detroit is pretty much what would happen to any city when solvent citizens leave

Again, that's not accurate. Detroit was hit with numerous things beyond just white flight, including the collapse of local single industry and other issues that SF currently at risk of. That's ignoring huge chunks of Detroit's history and trying to reduce what is a multi-faceted issue into a single one.

[Sunseeker]

Goddamn city-folk. You talk like moving from San Fran to Carmel or Napa is moving out into the middle of Wyoming. These are affluent people moving from one affluent area to another affluent area where there are fewer poors.

Jesus grow some context.

[Kellhound]

I could never understand the desire to live there. It sucked in the 90s and, if anything, its worse now. The traffic alone is a total nightmare!

[dwarven]

Dear Suburbs and Exurbs,

Please keep your Karens and edgy Gamergate youth.
Stop hasslin city folk about our diversity.

Can we just fire city folk into the sun? We'd solve global warming overnight!

[Rasulis]

Goddamn city-folk. You talk like moving from San Fran to Carmel or Napa is moving out into the middle of Wyoming. These are affluent people moving from one affluent area to another affluent area where there are fewer poors.

Jesus grow some context.

If I still have to go to work every day, then Carmel is a bit far from SF. Although if the office is in San Jose, then it is not too bad.

On the other hand, if I can work remotely and only have to show up at the office once a week, then I would go north to Fort Bragg. Carmel on the weekend is a tourist mob scene. Fort Bragg is just as beautiful and much quieter. Not to mention the real estate price is about a third or half that of Carmel. Carmel real estate is very expensive. In Fort Bragg you could get a big seafront house for well under 1M. No chance of that happening in Carmel.

[Egomaniac]

I'm guessing the property value of San Francisco real estate takes a pretty plunge when the nukes hit it during the upcoming civil war. I'd get the hell out of there too.

Oh wow, the "upcoming" civil war is going to be nuclear! In-fucking-credible.

[Kokolums]

Oh wow, the "upcoming" civil war is going to be nuclear! In-fucking-credible.

I've been saying that for over a year.

The human race is unlikely to survive this. At best, I think the human race comes out of this in some kind of mangled state. Multiple cities across the globe nuked. The environment suffering what is effectively permanent damage. Maybe small pockets of humans hang on. But odds are we destroy all life on this planet.