Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Edge-]

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/22/89348...ews-conference

Contradicting all studies on the subject, the president of the USA is claiming that protests have fueled the surge in coronavirus cases in the US.

This isn't true - https://time.com/5861633/protests-coronavirus/

We've known this for some time.

[Corvus]

Things have gone a little bit pear shaped in Australia. After being on the verge of wiping it out, running at 10 or less new cases a day for a sustained period, it has exploded back again. Most of the country was doing very well, except the two big states, Victoria and New South Wales. Unfortunately it has escaped containment in Victoria, going from sub-10 cases a day up to 400-500 a day. Small compared to the rest of the world, I know, but it could very much continue to grow from there if we aren't careful/lucky.

The whole city of Melbourne has been put in lockdown and masks are now mandatory there. The rest of the country is trying to stop it spreading from Victoria though a little bit has leaked into New South Wales. So far they seemed to have it under control but this things is slippery.

There have been problems in Victoria, with lax hotel quarantine security and a lack of proper self-isolation. Of the 3800 new cases recently, 2000 did not go into quarantine like they were meant to between being tested and the 1 or 2 days before getting results. Which helped spread it. And over in Queensland, there have been 200 cases of people going missing from 2 week self-quarantine on arriving in the state, either by not being at the location they listed when they were checked on, or outright lying about the location.

[Omega10]

Things have gone a little bit pear shaped in Australia. After being on the verge of wiping it out, running at 10 or less new cases a day for a sustained period, it has exploded back again. Most of the country was doing very well, except the two big states, Victoria and New South Wales. Unfortunately it has escaped containment in Victoria, going from sub-10 cases a day up to 400-500 a day. Small compared to the rest of the world, I know, but it could very much continue to grow from there if we aren't careful/lucky.

The whole city of Melbourne has been put in lockdown and masks are now mandatory there. The rest of the country is trying to stop it spreading from Victoria though a little bit has leaked into New South Wales. So far they seemed to have it under control but this things is slippery.

There have been problems in Victoria, with lax hotel quarantine security and a lack of proper self-isolation. Of the 3800 new cases recently, 2000 did not go into quarantine like they were meant to between being tested and the 1 or 2 days before getting results. Which helped spread it. And over in Queensland, there have been 200 cases of people going missing from 2 week self-quarantine on arriving in the state, either by not being at the location they listed when they were checked on, or outright lying about the location.

This is very sobering. This strongly implies that even after we have effective vaccines, the virus will still hang around.

The most discouraging part of the whole thing is how fast the numbers grow from almost none to a fairly large number.

[Zantos]

See above... where's your evidence?

Here is one that I linked before.Multiple daycares had spikes. Kids can spread it. This is a fact. The only thing that Might make it harder for them to do so is purely because they are so short.

As for anything else, we simply don't know. They did the smart thing and shut down back in March. Now they are undoing that decision and going full idiot and trying to reopen in person schools.

Cramped, poorly ventilated areas for 8hours a day, with hundreds of kids, isn't going to end well. Doesn't take a scientist to figure that one out.

[Deja Thoris]

Sounds encouraging! Hope it works well and stops this crap. Or as a min, cuts it down a lot.

A vaccine doesn't even exist yet. All this is is a promise that they are actually in the queue to get 100m doses "when" it becomes available.

"Hey you're in the queue for something that doesn't exist and has no timeline yet" - Super encouraging!

[Gorsameth]

Things have gone a little bit pear shaped in Australia. After being on the verge of wiping it out, running at 10 or less new cases a day for a sustained period, it has exploded back again. Most of the country was doing very well, except the two big states, Victoria and New South Wales. Unfortunately it has escaped containment in Victoria, going from sub-10 cases a day up to 400-500 a day. Small compared to the rest of the world, I know, but it could very much continue to grow from there if we aren't careful/lucky.

The whole city of Melbourne has been put in lockdown and masks are now mandatory there. The rest of the country is trying to stop it spreading from Victoria though a little bit has leaked into New South Wales. So far they seemed to have it under control but this things is slippery.

There have been problems in Victoria, with lax hotel quarantine security and a lack of proper self-isolation. Of the 3800 new cases recently, 2000 did not go into quarantine like they were meant to between being tested and the 1 or 2 days before getting results. Which helped spread it. And over in Queensland, there have been 200 cases of people going missing from 2 week self-quarantine on arriving in the state, either by not being at the location they listed when they were checked on, or outright lying about the location.

Its the same story pretty much everywhere. People cannot maintain discipline and awareness is lapsing with an increase in cases as a result.

Its pretty depressing how quickly people go back to not caring.

[Acidbaron]

Its the same story pretty much everywhere. People cannot maintain discipline and awareness is lapsing with an increase in cases as a result.

Its pretty depressing how quickly people go back to not caring.

Hate to be that guy, but in Belgium it is mostly the Turkish and Marocains communities that are the source of the outbreaks. People on holiday and going back and completely ignoring the guidelines and just living as they used to.

These groups were also for a large part the big source of this virus at the start, as they continue to be hard to reach as they live in their own bubble.

[wunksta]

Florida posts 173 deaths in a day. If this trend continues they would break 200 tomorrow. I pray that doesn’t happen, but DeSantis is derelict in his duty.

Hey, at least his grandchildren will be safe doing distance learning.

[Forogil]

Here is one that I linked before.Multiple daycares had spikes. Kids can spread it. This is a fact. The only thing that Might make it harder for them to do so is purely because they are so short.

The only thing except for other factors such as fewer ACE2 receptors, quicker immune system, and possibly previous experience with common cold caused by corona-viruses - and that's why your link indicate the kids don't spread it much.
The imperial college study of school closures (and other measures) also found that they had little impact - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7

However, to me this focus on schools is missing the mark, as we should consider it together with other measures - not on its own.

Closing schools and keeping malls open so that teenagers hang out there instead doesn't solve anything, except getting a few shop-assistants infected instead of teachers. Neither will we "keep the economy running" if we close down everything else, but keep schools open.

- - - Updated - - -

A vaccine doesn't even exist yet. All this is is a promise that they are actually in the queue to get 100m doses "when" it becomes available.

They sort of have a vaccine, as do several others, it's just that we don't know if any of them will work (in practice) as it's currently being tested.

Thus governments, including the US, have promised to pay for these not yet ready vaccine-candidates, in the hope that some will work.

Without that promise it would have been risky to start manufacturing vaccines in large quantities and thus vaccines would have take a bit longer to be manufactured. (Obviously assuming they work.)

Note that they cannot re-use the normal flu-vaccine process as far as I understand.

"Hey you're in the queue for something that doesn't exist and has no timeline yet" - Super encouraging!

It sort of exists, and there is actually a time-line - https://investors.biontech.de/news-r...government-600

The plan is (assuming the test show that it works) up to 100 million doses in 2020 and more than 1.3 billion before end of 2021. Note despite the coincide that the plan is to make up to 100 million does in 2020, and the US promised to buy 100 million doses, I think that the US will get substantially less than 100 million doses from them in 2020.

So far the vaccines seem to be sort of working.

[Rasulis]

Even Covid screening at schools can be problematic. Which test methods should be used?

The high accuracy test? However it requires sending the swabs to a lab and turn around could be as long as week. So the test results lag a week. Then there is the cost. At $50 - $70 per tests it is pretty prohibitive. One test per week for 12 weeks (entire semester) is $600 - $840 per student.

The FDA is reviewing an instantaneous test at the moment. The test is based on pregnancy test and you get the results right there and then. However, the test has 20% error rate during the initial and final phase of Covid infection where the virus count is lower. However, the test is expected to be cheap. In bulk it will cost around $1 - $3 per test. School districts can test their student every 2 days.

Also, those are just the cost of testing. The districts need to include the personnel cost for performing the test and maintaining the test records.

[Tuor]

[Cerilis]

Luxembourg, wtf?

[Greyvax]

Hey, at least his grandchildren will be safe doing distance learning.

FWIW It was actually Senator Rick Scott who said that. Not Governor DeSantis.

[Acidbaron]

Luxembourg, wtf?

High transit area with people working for all over the region there. It's also a place to go buy alcohol and smokes for quite a lot tax price.

[unfilteredJW]

FWIW It was actually Senator Rick Scott who said that. Not Governor DeSantis.

It’s understandable they’d get both of these mixed up as they are equally terrible people.

[Edge-]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...s-plunges-poll

Florida appears to be paying attention, approval ratings for DeSantis handling of the virus have dropped from 50% in April down to 38% as of latest polling. 57% now disapprove. It's not all good news though -

Voters are statistically tied on whether DeSantis should issue a statewide stay at home order amid the surge in cases, with 49 percent saying yes and 48 percent saying he should not.

[unfilteredJW]

He should have ordered masks 3 weeks ago. If they didn't make an impact then you go to a stay at home order until infection rates drop.

We still have a few weeks of tourist season left.

I’m sure handlers want their summer money.

[Gorsameth]

Luxembourg, wtf?

Its infected per 100k and Luxembourg only has a population of like 600k so a single hotspot will go a long way while other regions cover a much larger area and bigger population.

[wunksta]

FWIW It was actually Senator Rick Scott who said that. Not Governor DeSantis.

Ah yeah, my mistake.

[Edge-]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...-in-just-15-da

4 million confirmed cases in the US now.

Someone had a timeline of how long it took to hit each million, and I believe going from 2M-3M too 28 days. This latest addition nearly cut that time in half, taking just 15 days.

America. Is. Not. Capable. Of. Combating. A. Pandemic.