Has Elon Musk revived interest in space? Are we on the cusp of a new space age?

[cubby]

I mean...they may think it is, but there remains a huge amount of skepticism given that the technology remains unproven, costs are a huge question mark (especially long term costs), and there are huge restrictions that come into play when it comes to the routes that the technology can realistically run (i.e. lots of long, straight lines and gentle curves).

It's cool and all, and some tech based off it may be useful some day, but not necessarily now.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...e-report-says/

Governments contract for all kinds of projects that fall through because they're not viable, because funding spins out of control, because there are tons of unexpected problems etc. etc. etc. California's "high speed rail" is a great example of this, and it went from a great idea to an insanely overbudget piece of garbage that costs far more than originally estimated and will cover maybe 1/10th the distance it was originally intended to.

And I really hear what you're saying above. There are certainly some serious questions about the economic viability of the Hyperloop, as well as getting past some technological issues. But people like @Heidelstein and other Musk Haters just crack me up with their immediate dismissal of the project, when so many governments are working on the projects. Saying something is not feasible while so many governments are working on the project is just asinine, willful ignorance on a Trumponian scale (not saying he's a Trumpkin).

Of course the projects could fall through for all kinds of reasons, ones your brought up as well as others. But my point is that the auto-elon-haters just hate for hating sake, without any thought or reason behind it.

[Edge-]

And I really hear what you're saying above. There are certainly some serious questions about the economic viability of the Hyperloop, as well as getting past some technological issues. But people like @Heidelstein and other Musk Haters just crack me up with their immediate dismissal of the project, when so many governments are working on the projects. Saying something is not feasible while so many governments are working on the project is just asinine, willful ignorance on a Trumponian scale (not saying he's a Trumpkin).

Of course the projects could fall through for all kinds of reasons, ones your brought up as well as others. But my point is that the auto-elon-haters just hate for hating sake, without any thought or reason behind it.

I really dislike this camp thing of "musk haters" and "musk devotees".

I mean, governments backing the project lends it credibility to a certain extent, but not really since governments often contract for dumbass shit that doesn't work. See the US Defense Department and shit like Star Wars or...I can't remember the name of the helicopter program that was never going to be feasible.

Right now, based on everything I've read, it really isn't feasible. The tech still has a ways to go and even then the limitations may prove insurmountable (what if they can't get the rights to the land they need for a route and there are no alternatives because this shit can't turn on the dime?). It may prove fruitful in developing similar tech that's more flexible, but as-is it's kinda a pipe dream.

https://www.wired.com/story/guide-hyperloop/

It's a bit older at this point, but Wired has a pretty good explainer on why it's not all as easy (especially the non-engineering related problems, which still remain) as Musk and the people with a financial interest in getting paid to develop a hyperloop system say.

[cubby]

I really dislike this camp thing of "musk haters" and "musk devotees".

I mean, governments backing the project lends it credibility to a certain extent, but not really since governments often contract for dumbass shit that doesn't work. See the US Defense Department and shit like Star Wars or...I can't remember the name of the helicopter program that was never going to be feasible.

Right now, based on everything I've read, it really isn't feasible. The tech still has a ways to go and even then the limitations may prove insurmountable (what if they can't get the rights to the land they need for a route and there are no alternatives because this shit can't turn on the dime?). It may prove fruitful in developing similar tech that's more flexible, but as-is it's kinda a pipe dream.

https://www.wired.com/story/guide-hyperloop/

It's a bit older at this point, but Wired has a pretty good explainer on why it's not all as easy (especially the non-engineering related problems, which still remain) as Musk and the people with a financial interest in getting paid to develop a hyperloop system say.

I'm not a fan of them either, but they exist - and we see them pop up here in this thread all the time. They literally embody "haters gonna hate", posting denunciations of anything Musk related without thought or consideration. Things like "he's an idiot" without and caveats or references.

To your point, if it were just one or two governments backing the project, like a Star Wars, then sure, who knows how it's going to turn out. But there are a couple dozen cities and governments that are working on various stages of this project, with more coming "on-line" every year. Of course nothing is guaranteed, and you point out some very prudent issues that each entity will have to address before completion. But the sure numbers of entities working on this brings it's own level of feasibility to the forefront.

I've seen that article, and it's good - even if dated. And of course the Hyperloop project is not easy - not at all. And of course people with a financial interest are going to say nice things and avoid the tough conversations. But "not feasible" - I'm leaving that up the experts, hundreds (if not thousands) of which are currently working on those projects right now.

EDIT: Wanted to make sure you understand I'm not ever remotely classifying you as a "hater" - I find discussing topics with you enlightening and enjoyable (yes, i've been taking alliteration classes).

[JohnBrown1917]

The Elon Musk Haters are in full swing I see. It's adorable how you guys come out of the woodwork any time Musk is mentioned as accomplishing something. 3 separate companies with billion dollar valuations...and you call him an idiot.

Its the engineers who deserve credit for the achievements, not Musk.


Unless you mean that he now the richest man earth, but im sure you also think that is an achievement worthy of praise.

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If he was a brilliant engineer then he wouldn't have been pushing for Hyperloop.

He does not even have any experience in it, he just hires people to do it for him and takes the credit. The luck of being born to a rich white father and mother in South Africa during Apartheid.

[cubby]

Its the engineers who deserve credit for the achievements, not Musk.
Unless you mean that he now the richest man earth, but im sure you also think that is an achievement worthy of praise.

You have a lot to learn about who is responsible for the success of a business. Remind us again how many different types of businesses did Musk bring to billion dollar value?

He does not even have any experience in it, he just hires people to do it for him and takes the credit. The luck of being born to a rich white father and mother in South Africa during Apartheid.

Yeah, Stanford's Energy Physics/Materials Science Ph.d program that Musk got into is just for idiots, right?

I mean - can you at least try and put a cohesive point together? At least do some research maybe before ringing the Hater's Gonna Hate bell?

[Vash The Stampede]

You have a lot to learn about who is responsible for the success of a business. Remind us again how many different types of businesses did Musk bring to billion dollar value?

Why did Tesla's stock skyrocket during 2020? Elon Musk deserves credit but the stock went up by 800%. He's good but he can't be 800% good.

[cubby]

Why did Tesla's stock skyrocket during 2020? Elon Musk deserves credit but the stock went up by 800%. He's good but he can't be 800% good.

Yeah, I have no idea. I believe part of it was because it was put on the S&P 500, and that added value just for being there. Otherwise, I don't know. And for the record, I find the stock market to be a terrible part of valuing anything.

For me, it has always been his success with Paypal and then SpaceX. Tesla feels like his hobby and the Hyperloop was just an essay he wrote for extra credit.

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I wish Carl Sagan was alive.

Who doesn't?

[cubby]

Do you think he'd be happy about what Musk is doing?

God you're adorable. Specifically in this case that you would think either of us would have the first inclination to what a great mind like Sagan would think of any particular subject that he never himself addressed.

But please, go on with your bullshit one line posts - ring that Haters Gonna Hate bell all night you want. It's hysterical how desperate you groupies are.

Do you think Sagan would be disappointed in your horrible argument strategy? I know we all are.

[Egomaniac]

I love how this thread, originally intended to cheerlead for TV SciFi, has now become a public forum on the worthiness of Elon Musk.

[cubby]

I love how this thread, originally intended to cheerlead for TV SciFi, has now become a public forum on the worthiness of Elon Musk.

That's how they usually diverge. Members of the Elon Must Hate Machine usually chime in with a bunch of baseless bullshit arguments, including my favorite "he's an idiot", and then just run and hide when facts and logic are even remotely brought to bear.

However, you certainly crystalize the issue. That tech his lab is working on is scary as fuck, not even remotely ready for any kind of application, and doesn't really look like it's going to help even a tiny portion of humanity. That being said, I'm glad people are working on it. If it does eventually bring what it promises, and is used wisely (which isn't even remotely a possibility), we can see a lot of benefit to people who could really use it.

[cubby]

Let's go line-by-line, shall we? It's more fun that way.

Yeah I'm sure the man who talked about mankind's shared obligation to explore space and worked closely with nasa would be thrilled about it becoming a privatized interest.

"Work closely with NASA"...hmmm. Who do we know who is working closely with NASA to explore space.... Holy FUCK do you suck at this.

The second any time anyone brings up the potential for criticism of musk your brain just flips a switch.

Wow...speaking of switches flipping, any time you're faced with someone shoving facts and reality into your face, you just go full Hater mode, eh? It's gotta suck to not see in yourself what you project onto others.

I asked a question, I wasnt making an argument. The fact you've reacted this way shows you know that Carl Sagan would probably be quite critical of elon musk.

Someone slept through their logic course at school. You don't even know that a question can be an argument, and you're still trying to pretend you know what Sagan would think, and you're doing it in the dumbest way possible. The only thing we're sure of is Sagan would be very disappointed in you.

Who are we groupies for lol? The one participating in a cult of personality is you, it's just projection?

The groupies are the ones, like you, who jump on the Elon-Musk-Hate-Machine any time he's even mentioned. That is cult personality to a tee. I'm on record, in this and many other threads, of being highly critical of Musk in a number of areas. Where are your objective points?

[Egomaniac]

Yeah I'm sure the man who talked about mankind's shared obligation to explore space and worked closely with nasa would be thrilled about it becoming a privatized interest. I'm sure his speeches about how we were all one species of animal on a pale blue dot, was a subverted argument that man should be exploiting space for profit.

The second any time anyone brings up the potential for criticism of musk your brain just flips a switch.

I asked a question, I wasnt making an argument. The fact you've reacted this way shows you know that Carl Sagan would probably be quite critical of elon musk.

Who are we groupies for lol? The one participating in a cult of personality is you, it's just projection?

I don't think Sagan would "like" Elon Musk.

But his problems would be more about the privatization of Space Exploration than the Man at the forefront of that privatization.

[Egomaniac]

Well yeah, but the man at the forefront is kinda the one asking for and receiving a lot of the benefits of privatization.

Sure, but Sagan wouldn't going to hate him for that. He'd have plenty of reasons to dislike Elon Musk....but that wouldn't be one of them.

Elon Musk is a consequence of the decision to privatize space. He's not the cause.

Sagan would be pissed that the USA basically privatized it's Space Exploration. He'd have fought against it.

But if he came back to life today...he'd probably be working with Musk. He wouldn't like the man....but he'd work with him...because the work is important.

[Egomaniac]

Eh realistically he probably would have got twitter brained.

And if he didn't I don't think he would work with musk? Carl Sagan didn't build rockets or anything, if he did it work with him it would be more about Musk's ego than anything else. Either way it sounds like dark timeline stuff for the future Carl Sagan hoped for. The radio telescopes falling into disrepair and a drive of profit and desperste survival pushing us into space instead of exploration and understanding would probably be deeply saddening. Wishing Carl Sagan back is kinda of cruel now that I think about it.

I wasn't trying to suggest that he'd be building rockets or anything like that. I was thinking he'd be more like a liason between Musk and NASA or something along those lines.

Regardless, Elon Musk isn't the one to blame for things not working the Way Carl Sagan would have preferred.

I mean, I can fully understand why people don't like the guy...he's switches between creepy & awkward and raging asshole.

[cubby]

More fun! Here we go....

You're comparing working closely with NASA in an academic capacity vs a business capacity. Carl Sagan worked with nasa so man kind could understand and explore space, it had less to do with power or wealth.

And Elon Musk is getting us further down the path of that exploration. He might be doing it in a different way, but the end result will bolster Sagan's goals. The U.S. is now launching astronauts back into space. SpaceX has made space accessible to hundreds of new companies, because his approach lowered the cost ratio by two orders of magnitude compared to anything else.

But please, do go on about missing the overall goal and just reaching for the crumbs.

Weird that you're talking about all this logic and arguments and stuff but you've yet to address my initial question which was asking for your opinion.

Weird that you think logic and answering your question are the same thing.

I hate the privatization of space travel and I think it's only going to propagate human misery out into our solar system.

Why? How about you expand on this point, with some insight and cites rather than just shitty one-liners. I'd love to hear your reasoning.


You said...

I'm not pretending to know what carl sagan would think

and then...

Its pretty obvious where he would stand

Are you done yet? Because this is fucking hysterical. Shout if you don't understand why - we'll help explain.

You keep claiming that Sagan would be disappointed in me. Which is different in what way?

Because Sagan was a scientist, a thinker, and someone who could see their way through a problem while examining the bigger picture. SpaceX and other private ventures are taking mankind back out into space. We landed on the moon 50 years ago, and then lost interest. Privatization will take us back to the Moon and onto Mars
and further.

You're knocking private space exploration en masse without any thought or reasoning. You're doing the one thing Sagan would be disappointed in, as all scientists would be disappointed in; you're not thinking. You're just spouting nonsensical hyperbole without facts or reasoning. And that's as much an antithesis to Sagan as anything ever could be. Not because I know him, or pretend to know what he's thinking, but because of who he was. And still is to many of us.

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Sure, but Sagan wouldn't going to hate him for that. He'd have plenty of reasons to dislike Elon Musk....but that wouldn't be one of them.

Elon Musk is a consequence of the decision to privatize space. He's not the cause.

Sagan would be pissed that the USA basically privatized it's Space Exploration. He'd have fought against it.

But if he came back to life today...he'd probably be working with Musk. He wouldn't like the man....but he'd work with him...because the work is important.

Exactly. I couldn't have said it better myself.

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Eh realistically he probably would have got twitter brained.

And if he didn't I don't think he would work with musk? Carl Sagan didn't build rockets or anything, if he did it work with him it would be more about Musk's ego than anything else. Either way it sounds like dark timeline stuff for the future Carl Sagan hoped for. The radio telescopes falling into disrepair and a drive of profit and desperste survival pushing us into space instead of exploration and understanding would probably be deeply saddening. Wishing Carl Sagan back is kinda of cruel now that I think about it.

I have to agree with you entirely on this point. Especially those pics of the giant telescope falling into irreversible disrepair - that was just maddeningly sad.

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I mean, I can fully understand why people don't like the guy...he's switches between creepy & awkward and raging asshole.

Yeah - the guy has Herculean personal issues, no doubt at all. But the guy is a brilliant engineer and a genius businessman.

[Edge-]

Yes space travel is cheaper, but at what cost, elon musk staking a territorial claim and creating a privatized state on another planet (because lets be honest that what is looking like is going to happen)?

I love me some SpaceX wizardry, but this is something that greatly concerns me.

It's like, the trope of almost every sci-fi movie where the bad guy is some form of corporate uber nation-state.

[cubby]

Elon Musk is planning on offering big loans to people so they can afford the costly ticket of going to mars... It's more than likely a one way trip at this point do you not see the direction this kind of exploration is heading towards?

Assuming this is true (and do you have a source for this - specifically the loan/cost, I haven't heard anything about Musk doing it that way), aren't we getting way ahead of ourselves, AND, at the same time, ignoring the larger accomplishment? Putting a colony on Mars.

It's not one driven by a desire for knowledge.

Why can't it be both? Of course Musk isn't driven only by a desire for knowledge, but is any space program driven only by that? Don't we also want to accomplish something? Sagan worked with NASA, right? They both sought knowledge and achieved goals. Why do those two things need to be mutually exclusive?

If they don't need to be mutually exclusive, then isn't SpaceX doing both? Aren't they pursuing knowledge AND accomplishing goals? Does it matter if the pursuit of goals also gains significant knowledge?

I think you're the one looking at the crumbs and not the direction things are heading. Yes space travel is cheaper, but at what cost, elon musk staking a territorial claim and creating a privatized state on another planet (because lets be honest that what is looking like is going to happen)?

I really want to discuss this particular issue, because I'm sincerely interested in why people are so against the privatization of space; or, more accurately, the opening of space to private groups.

Haven't we seen much faster and better results from private companies? NASA is still working on a manned launch vehicle, one that they already admitted to launching with defects, and their rocket isn't even ready, and might not be for a couple of years. That's 15+ years to get two launches (assuming the second one even happens, and NASA still won't be able to put people back into space). In those same 15 years SpaceX went from not existing, to creating three separate launch vehicles, putting U.S. people back into space, and perfecting reusable launch vehicles.

So the argument against space privatization, or private access, can't be because of accomplishments or the quest for knowledge. It has to be something else, right?

Those herculean personal issues are going to end up with more people dead than he already helped cause with his crappy covid takes. Everyone has their issues right, but we can't just let people who clearly don't have the public interest at heart have so much control over something so important.

Perhaps you're correct here, there is no argument that Musk has personal issues, but he has a lot of items in the plus column as well. And who's to say what will happen once we get to Mars? The one thing that is almost certain is that Musk won't be able/allowed to claim Mars for himself.

Carl Sagan wanted what was best for us as a species, not a small group of individuals.

(I'm asking this sincerely, in case it seems otherwise)
Why are those mutually exclusive? One could argue that while Sagan's goal was knowledge for our species, his entire life's work really only directly benefited a small group of individuals (i.e. NASA, scientists, space folk). Isn't Musk also helping our species, given his goal is to ensure the survival of it? That's his reasoning for colonizing other planets, just to be clear on what I mean.

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I love me some SpaceX wizardry, but this is something that greatly concerns me.

It's like, the trope of almost every sci-fi movie where the bad guy is some form of corporate uber nation-state.

I think to some degree it concerns all of us knowledgeable on the subject, and I don't think it's confined to just Musk. The first Mars colony leader is going to be a living god, so long as they can enforce their will. If Musk is that person, well, we could be in trouble. Consider, however, that Musk turns 50 this year. And while aging tech is advancing rapidly, the rigors of Mars life won't lengthen one's life span. Musk reasonably won't be on Mars until he's at least 60, more than likely 65 or 70. And Mars will be very tough on the elders - lethally so. So while the trope might be alive and well, the time-frame for any affects is very narrow.

[Logwyn]

So the argument against space privatization, or private access, can't be because of accomplishments or the quest for knowledge. It has to be something else, right?

I think it comes from the historical track record for private companies during the Age of Exploration. They weren't the nicest to those they ran into and those that did the actual work. A private company's sole goal is to make a profit.

Look at Aliens. They HAD to go investigate or not get paid. Cost them their lives and the company did not really care. They wanted their specimen. I'm not suggesting SpaceX will do the same thing or up and say we have too many people and if we kill off five we will have a profit.

The private company goes up and someone develops something. Say a new power source from Martian Rock that is clean and pure and will power a house for 1000 years on just a gram of the fuel. (Being a little over the top but makes the point.) The company isn't going to just give the knowledge out for the betterment of humanity. They will patent it and then decide does marketing this, building it, and selling = profit. If it does they there you go if not it's locked in some vault for 18 years.

Addon what if the private colony does meet some advanced life form and we can communicate. Do they not become the beacon for humanity in diplomacy and dealing with this new contact?

[Egomaniac]

I think it comes from the historical track record for private companies during the Age of Exploration. They weren't the nicest to those they ran into and those that did the actual work. A private company's sole goal is to make a profit.

Look at Aliens. They HAD to go investigate or not get paid. Cost them their lives and the company did not really care. They wanted their specimen. I'm not suggesting SpaceX will do the same thing or up and say we have too many people and if we kill off five we will have a profit.

The private company goes up and someone develops something. Say a new power source from Martian Rock that is clean and pure and will power a house for 1000 years on just a gram of the fuel. (Being a little over the top but makes the point.) The company isn't going to just give the knowledge out for the betterment of humanity. They will patent it and then decide does marketing this, building it, and selling = profit. If it does they there you go if not it's locked in some vault for 18 years.

Addon what if the private colony does meet some advanced life form and we can communicate. Do they not become the beacon for humanity in diplomacy and dealing with this new contact?

Sure...but it's not like Countries have a great track record when it comes to exploring new territory either...

[cubby]

Let me say that imo these are all legitimate concerns to private space exploration, to one degree or another.

I think it comes from the historical track record for private companies during the Age of Exploration. They weren't the nicest to those they ran into and those that did the actual work. A private company's sole goal is to make a profit.

Look at Aliens. They HAD to go investigate or not get paid. Cost them their lives and the company did not really care. They wanted their specimen. I'm not suggesting SpaceX will do the same thing or up and say we have too many people and if we kill off five we will have a profit.

I think the profit motivation of a company is a double edged sword. On one hand, we have SpaceX, who developed and perfected reusable rockets while at the same time designing and building three separate launch vehicles (Falcon, Crew, Starship). And they did it all orders of magnitude faster than the government did (the reusable rocket model was originally NASA's, IIRC). Now space is two orders of magnitude cheaper and dozens of governments and companies have far easier access. So we chalk that up as a plus.

IMO Aliens is a perfect example of what could happen when space exploration ramps way up in a few centuries - interstellar capability. Going after profit over the safety and well being of their people will almost certainly happen. Bolstered by the fact that space will be almost impossible to police and/or regulate (can you imagine the efficacy of Space-OSHA?). So people are certainly going to die that shouldn't have, and the direct cause of it will be profit.

But how is that any different than the entire history of the world? Why would we expect space to be different from human behavior in toto? I realize that might actually be your argument, lol.

The private company goes up and someone develops something. Say a new power source from Martian Rock that is clean and pure and will power a house for 1000 years on just a gram of the fuel. (Being a little over the top but makes the point.) The company isn't going to just give the knowledge out for the betterment of humanity. They will patent it and then decide does marketing this, building it, and selling = profit. If it does they there you go if not it's locked in some vault for 18 years.

This will most definitely happen, perhaps not to the extreme your example provides, but to some extend for sure. I think that is more of an issue of capitalism in general rather than space exploration specifically.

Addon what if the private colony does meet some advanced life form and we can communicate. Do they not become the beacon for humanity in diplomacy and dealing with this new contact?

We as a country and/or a world could actually regulate this, requiring government officials to be stationed on private space ships.