Fate of Afghanistan, Taliban resurgence

[JohnBrown1917]

So I keep hearing people say that Biden "bungled" the withdrawal. Does anyone know how, exactly, and what he should have done (or not done) differently? Because as far as I can tell, the implication is that he shouldn't have withdrawn at all. Which, after 20 years, kind of paints a worse picture of his predecessors than it does of Biden himself.

Pulling out all the afghans who where working for the US before pulling out would have been nice.

[Doctor Amadeus]

Soviets did better in Afghanistan than the US.

By what metric, The Soviet Union collapsed shortly after.

[PhaelixWW]

Pulling out all the afghans who where working for the US before pulling out would have been nice.

What's the mechanism for that? Do they all get US citizenship automatically? Does the plane make a lot of pitstops, like a bus, to drop them off? Do these people get money to help them set up a new life somewhere else?

I'm honestly curious how this would even be feasible. I guarantee Trump's plan didn't account for giving all those Afghans automatic citizenship and living expenses.

[Zython]

Pulling out all the afghans who where working for the US before pulling out would have been nice.

Aside from those people personally, that wouldn't have altered the general outcome.

[bowchikabow]

So I keep hearing people say that Biden "bungled" the withdrawal. Does anyone know how, exactly, and what he should have done (or not done) differently? Because as far as I can tell, the implication is that he shouldn't have withdrawn at all. Which, after 20 years, kind of paints a worse picture of his predecessors than it does of Biden himself.

It is hard to explain it properly without also giving a lengthy explanation of how the combat support system works over there as well as how our command chain and supply chains function... But as simple as I can put it: We taught them how we grow trees, showed them how much water to use, and where to plant them. Then, overnight, we took the water and burned the ground and then said "have fun growing the apples" after they finally had their first tree grown. And then people wondered why the Afghan's.. no longer having water provided, and no longer having the ground.. didn't try to grow more trees.

[Shalcker]

By what metric, The Soviet Union collapsed shortly after.

There is still time for US to follow suit.

[JohnBrown1917]

Aside from those people personally, that wouldn't have altered the general outcome.

Nothing else could be done, aside from going back in time and never going to Afghanistan.

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What's the mechanism for that? Do they all get US citizenship automatically? Does the plane make a lot of pitstops, like a bus, to drop them off? Do these people get money to help them set up a new life somewhere else?

I'm honestly curious how this would even be feasible. I guarantee Trump's plan didn't account for giving all those Afghans automatic citizenship and living expenses.

I don't really care what Trump would have done, Biden had plenty of time to get them out instead of the current shitshow that is now going on in the airport at Kabul.

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It is hard to explain it properly without also giving a lengthy explanation of how the combat support system works over there as well as how our command chain and supply chains function... But as simple as I can put it: We taught them how we grow trees, showed them how much water to use, and where to plant them. Then, overnight, we took the water and burned the ground and then said "have fun growing the apples" after they finally had their first tree grown. And then people wondered why the Afghan's.. no longer having water provided, and no longer having the ground.. didn't try to grow more trees.

The army collapsed because they simply did not want to fight, mostly due to lack of any sort of Afghan national identity and the tribes they belong to surrendering. Why risk your life for a government you don't even recognize while you are not getting paid?

[Zython]

It is hard to explain it properly without also giving a lengthy explanation of how the combat support system works over there as well as how our command chain and supply chains function... But as simple as I can put it: We taught them how we grow trees, showed them how much water to use, and where to plant them. Then, overnight, we took the water and burned the ground and then said "have fun growing the apples" after they finally had their first tree grown. And then people wondered why the Afghan's.. no longer having water provided, and no longer having the ground.. didn't try to grow more trees.

Again, I'm asking what Biden specifically did wrong. Not the occupation apparatus over the span of the past 20 years. THAT'S well documented.

[muto]

There is still time for US to follow suit.

The greatest country in the world won’t collapse anytime soon keep dreaming.

[PhaelixWW]

There is still time for US to follow suit.

You and Kokolums can go off in a corner and dream about the US civil war that's not going to happen.

I don't really care what Trump would have done, Biden had plenty of time to get them out instead of the current shitshow that is now going on in the airport at Kabul.

Nope, sorry, you completely ignored the question.

I guess that means you have no answer, which means your statement is just a steaming pile of... nothing.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

No one has a case here unless their isn't a 4 way split in blame for what happened. Bush for going in with little direction besides "get him". Obama for riding on the plan with little direction even though he "got him". Trump for using it as a PR stunt like everything else he does, and Biden for having a telegraphed pull out date without preparations.

[Theodarzna]

By what metric, The Soviet Union collapsed shortly after.

The Soviet's left a State that survived several years, and it cost them a fraction of the price in terms of gold and blood.

[Mihalik]

What's the mechanism for that? Do they all get US citizenship automatically? Does the plane make a lot of pitstops, like a bus, to drop them off? Do these people get money to help them set up a new life somewhere else?

I'm honestly curious how this would even be feasible. I guarantee Trump's plan didn't account for giving all those Afghans automatic citizenship and living expenses.

The plan was to identify people who directly worked for the US, people like translators who were embedded with ground troops and the civilian support staff who worked for the US, janitors, technicians, clerks etc and grant them temporary refugee status that would have been further reviewed in the US.

The Trump administration slowed this process down to a halt (cuz fuck brown people), so the idea was to ship these people to a location like the US Virgin Islands and various US army bases, where they would have been given temporary shelter while their Visa applications would have been fully processed.

This has been done before and it was done with a much larger volume of people.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnamese_Americans

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Again, I'm asking what Biden specifically did wrong. Not the occupation apparatus over the span of the past 20 years. THAT'S well documented.

In general relying on a timetable that assumed it would have months to get everyone out.

This isn't per say 100% on Biden, as the US has spent years deceiving itself about the real situation on the ground.

The Biden administration's failure was accepting the notion that the Pentagon and the US intelligence community actually knows what it is doing.

I honestly don't know how anyone in his right mind can believe that after the endless chain of epic failures of the past 20 something years.

[Breccia]

A former DoD official wrote this informed OP ED in TheAtlantic about Biden's withdraw. For the record, I don't agree with all of it -- maybe most of it.

But the ending I didn't disagree with, because...well, take a look.

Finally, critics are lobbing the usual refrain that the withdrawal has damaged U.S. credibility. “Afghanistan’s Unraveling May Strike Another Blow to U.S. Credibility,” read a headline in The New York Times; “Afghanistan’s Collapse Leaves Allies Questioning U.S. Resolve on Other Fronts,” echoed The Washington Post. The United States has spent billions of taxpayer dollars, fought for more than 20 years, and suffered thousands of casualties in this war. If that sort of commitment lacks credibility, our allies will never believe we are doing enough. Critics likewise argued that withdrawal from Vietnam would hurt our credibility. In reality, Japan and other allies questioned our ability to protect them not because we withdrew from Vietnam, but because the United States was militarily overstretched. Withdrawal did not undermine our credibility; by consolidating our efforts, it might enhance it.

I wasn't around for the Vietnam War, but did the US really get a lot of hate from countries we actually like for leaving? Or did that blow over?

Perhaps one of the few bright spots...er, not as dark spots...is knowing that everyone else already knew we were going to fail, and fail this badly, and are okay with US finally getting the message. It's not as much silver lining as less-rusted-steel lining.

[Theodarzna]

Right, it just cost them the Soviet Union.

https://faculty.washington.edu/aseem/afganwar.pdf

We shall see how America fairs, I mean few would say things are going well.

However its pretty easy to do well as a country with no enemies nearby, a mote between yourself and the world, and the best land in the world that was inhabited by people wiped out by a sneeze.

[MCMLXXXII]

The greatest country in the world won’t collapse anytime soon keep dreaming.

To be fair, that's what the Soviets kept saying too.

[Khaza-R]

I feel terrible for the Afghan people who don't want to live under Sharia law.

This might be something so insequential to people abroad. Seeing as its never been a reality for them. But as a ME person I totally understand the very crushing, reeling emotions of having your society slide back centuries into religious persecution.

[Theodarzna]

My point wasn’t really related to America, more the cost to the Soviets.

My point was that the US wasted way more time, lives and treasure and got worse results. And given how the US is doing over the last decade, we aren't exactly a thriving place.

[Specialka]

The greatest country in the world won’t collapse anytime soon keep dreaming.

Greatest by what metric ?

[jonnysensible]

Greatest by what metric ?

only superpower i assume