Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Edge-]

https://abc13.com/ken-paxton-positiv...-gov/11488683/

Ken Paxton, Texas AG, has covid and won't even say he's vaccinated. They just can't stop playing games with a pandemic.

[PhaelixWW]

https://abc13.com/ken-paxton-positiv...-gov/11488683/

Ken Paxton, Texas AG, has covid and won't even say he's vaccinated. They just can't stop playing games with a pandemic.

How do you win stupid prizes again?

[Poopymonster]

How do you win stupid prizes again?

By making a serious fucky wucky.

[Unholyground]

Caution: Paxlovid Interacts With Many Heart Meds — The Skeptical Cardiologist asks clinicians and patients to take note



Ugh. Tricky, since for best results, Paxlovid needs to be taken within 3 - 5 days of initial symptoms.

It still helps at quelling hospitalization even if administered after that. If they give it to you when you're already doing bad it will still help. It's best results at 3 to 5 days it doesn't mean it doesn't work after that period.

[Forogil]

It still helps at quelling hospitalization even if administered after that. If they give it to you when you're already doing bad it will still help. It's best results at 3 to 5 days it doesn't mean it doesn't work after that period.

Possibly, but we don't know as it hasn't been tested.
I don't know why they didn't test it in hospitalized patients; for Merck's pill I could understand that it would potentially increase the risk of new virus variants, but nothing similar for this one.

It could be that they believe the drug to be less efficient at that stage for some reason, or it could be that a pill is clearly useful outside hospitals and they didn't expect it to work this well.

- - - Updated - - -

And Austria now passed it covid-vaccine law, https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-di...ate/a-60490033

After an "introductory phase" ending mid-March, those who refuse to get the shot will face fines of up to €3,600 ($4,084). The mandate only applies to adults and makes exemptions for pregnant women and those with medical conditions that prevent them from getting the jab.

(Italy sort of already did something similar for those at the age of 50 or above.)

Austria currently does not have a high vaccine coverage - 74%; and I don't know how well the law will work.

Clearly it is best if everyone gets vaccinated (including pregnant women but excluding some medical conditions), but whether the fine will convince the rest - or just radicalize them further isn't clear; and it's also unclear if this requirement will be updated when we get updated vaccines for Omicron and whether it will require regular boosters.

Both Austria and Germany are also seeing rising numbers with Omicron taking hold (after a Delta-wave in early December); expect large numbers in a week or two.
France and Denmark are still seeing the Omicron-wave with cases at >3% per week, and numbers not declining yet - in contrast to the UK; no idea why.

[Edge-]

And Austria

So uh...given history and all...what's the current right wing landscape in Austria?

[Forogil]

So uh...given history and all...what's the current right wing landscape in Austria?

Everyone changes names, but:
The centre-right ÖVP is in government (with the greens) and in favor of the law.
The right-wing populists FPÖ lost a lot of steam after Ibiza; and, of course, opposed the law. I don't know if they have any bad struggling painters holding a grudge for something who will be a future threat to Europe.

[Mayhem]

So uh...given history and all...what's the current right wing landscape in Austria?

It's a new scandal every other week or so.

Right now, the anti-corruption prosecutors (had to be formed because of the EU) are having a blast at evaluating chat messages and SMS from past years shining light on corruption at every level. Seems to be an established right-wing network that has put their people into positions so they get away with everything.

Concerning covid we're the permanent cluster of Europe with our ski resorts and ski regions. The only two to three regions that aren't fucking everything up all the time are controlled by the left.

Vienna alone has established a pcr-testing program that manages to test more than all of Germany.

[Edge-]

I just wanna make sure there aren't any like, failed artists who might have a particularly visceral reaction to this.

[Mayhem]

I just wanna make sure there aren't any like, failed artists who might have a particularly visceral reaction to this.

Na, at least none that are also really good at rallying masses behind them.

[PhaelixWW]

Na, at least none that are also really good at rallying masses behind them.

You say that now, sure, but who the hell would have thought 6 years ago that so many Americans would call Trump, of all people, "charismatic".

Ugh.

[Mayhem]

You say that now, sure, but who the hell would have thought 6 years ago that so many Americans would call Trump, of all people, "charismatic".

Ugh.

Well, after bush jr., I'd say not too many were "shocked". I mean, over here they have to hide their corruption or at least attempt to hide it but in the US it's part of the democratic process, you guys just don't call it corruption anymore but free speech.

Do we have a problem with nationalists and conspiracy theorists? For fucking sure, but which country hasn't. The good thing about nationalists is they are only working with other nationalists as long as both get something out of it which is pretty much opposed to their whole idea of how things should work.

You should be aware of all the managers we keep exporting though.

[Poopymonster]

I just wanna make sure there aren't any like, failed artists who might have a particularly visceral reaction to this.

I'm sure they are all very concerned about thew hole thing, staying at home, relaxing on their kampfy couches...

[Gaidax]

Seems like we have given up locally trying to control it and hope vaccination will handle it, it spreads like a wildfire and in a week half the country will have it anyway.

The measures in place are set to expire in February and the talk is that there is no intention to extend them, because useless anyway. Masks will stay, but that all.

[Rasulis]

Possibly, but we don't know as it hasn't been tested.
I don't know why they didn't test it in hospitalized patients; for Merck's pill I could understand that it would potentially increase the risk of new virus variants, but nothing similar for this one.

It could be that they believe the drug to be less efficient at that stage for some reason, or it could be that a pill is clearly useful outside hospitals and they didn't expect it to work this well.

The direction on who is eligible for Paxlovid is quite specific.

High-risk individuals with mild to moderate symptoms.

Not hospitalized.

Not on oxygen or increased oxygen.

BTW, the Bay Area has been gypped when it comes to Paxlovid.

Santa Clara: 200 of Paxlovid and 920 of molnupiravir.
San Mateo: 60 Paxlovid, 320 molnupiravir.
Contra Costa: 120 Paxlovid, no molnupiravir yet.
Santa Cruz: 20 Paxlovid, 280 molnupiravir.
San Francisco: 100 Paxlovid; 500 molnupiravir, of which 160 have been received.

The 17th largest and 2nd densest city in the US only received 100 Paxlovid.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't necessarily agree with their positions. However, these are not whackos either. These are doctors who actually worked in the trenches.

COVID is now an ‘endemic,’ not a ‘pandemic,’ San Francisco doctors say

Four doctors with the University of California San Francisco sent an online petition to Gov. Gavin Newsom, all public school superintendents, and every county public health officer in the state, calling for a pivot in language that recognizes the virus as an “endemic.”

They are calling for the language pivot to emphasize that California should work toward “an end to all remaining restrictions, particularly as they apply to children.”

The Change.org petition, titled “Post-Omicron Pivot for California Public Schools,” had 3,000 signatures Friday afternoon.

“We are particularly concerned about the toll that our state’s polices continue to have on children and teens. We are writing to ask California officials to acknowledge the endemic nature of COVID-19 after the omicron surge and immediately shift our public dialogue toward defining a path for removing all remaining COVID-19 restrictions in public schools,” the petition states.

The petition was signed by Dr. Jeanne Noble, director of COVID response for the UCSF Parnassus Emergency Department, Jennifer Nguyen, a pediatrician for UCSF Benioff Children’s Hospital Oakland, Dr. Vinay Prasad, an associate professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at UCSF, Dr. Jarrett Moyer, and registered nurse Laura Chinnavaso.

“An endemic phase of viral infections means … it’s not causing the terrible hospitalizations of the pandemic phase … that we’ll have enough immunity of a population so it’s kept down to low levels,” Dr. Monica Gandhi told KRON4.

The omicron variant surge is finally declining in San Francisco, the city’s top health official acknowledged Thursday.

Despite a record number in cases, most infected people reported mild or asymptomatic infections with the latest surge, city officials said.

Eighty-two percent of San Franciscans are vaccinated, and 61 percent of the city’s eligible population has received a booster shot.

The petition calls for 17 changes in California:

1. Acknowledge that any adult and most school age children have now had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated, and that forcing further mandates, particularly requiring boosters for children, is likely to increase mistrust and resentment of government and public health officials.

2. Acknowledge that many families in California vaccinated their children for the good of society since children are at lower risk of severe disease.

3. Acknowledge that vaccinated individuals of all ages in this state have been waiting for a reward for their efforts in the form of a major relaxation of restrictions which they have yet to receive.

4. Acknowledge that the public is weary from two years of restrictions, shifting messages from government officials, and a failure to acknowledge that the risk of severe COVID among children is significantly lower than in adults; indeed, it could take well over a generation for government leaders and infectious disease experts to regain the public’s trust.

5. Acknowledge the smaller risk that COVID-19 illness poses to children compared to the disproportionate toll that mitigation measures have taken on children.

6. Acknowledge the ongoing mental health crisis that is present in our children and teens due to social isolation and anxiety that has been created by this pandemic.

7. Acknowledge the ongoing educational crisis that is unfolding before us so long as children cannot see their teachers’ and peers’ faces and adequately hear and interact with them.

8. Immediately allow school children to unmask while outdoors, including during sports, by clarifying that outdoor exposures to COVID-19 are exceedingly low risk encounters and should not qualify as close contacts for the purpose of quarantines.

9. Make masks optional while indoors in school settings when California’s general mask mandate expires on February 15, 2022, or no later than February 24, 2022, twelve weeks after the last public school child became eligible for the vaccine.

10. Acknowledge the potential developmental harm that is caused to infants and toddlers who do not get to see their caregivers’ and teachers’ mouths when they are being spoken to nor see their full facial expressions in their interactions.

11. Immediately allow preschool and daycare teachers and students to unmask at all times if they so choose. If they do not choose to, please provide them with the CDC guidance on masking options, emphasizing one-way masking as a protective strategy.

12. Work towards ending the mindless testing of asymptomatic individuals with no clear purpose given that COVID-19 is here to stay.

13. Acknowledge that policies on college campuses should recognize that population’s relative low risk and high vaccination rate, thus not warranting returns to distance learning that deprive our young adults of social interaction that is formative for a lifetime.

14. Immediately shift away from a public health response that is based on case rates to one that strictly looks at hospitalizations and deaths in a broader context.

15. Acknowledge that the present Omicron variant is less deadly than prior variants.

16. Acknowledge that true COVID-19 hospitalizations remain low in this state and particularly in the Bay Area, and that we should refrain from panic-driven restrictions that inflict additional collateral damage on our most vulnerable populations, unjustified by a less deadly variant.

17. Commit to a rigorous cost-benefit analysis for all COVID restrictive policies to ensure that benefit always outweighs harm, without disproportionately prioritizing prevention of COVID-19 transmission above all other health considerations.

[PhaelixWW]

I don't necessarily agree with their positions. However, these are not whackos either. These are doctors who actually worked in the trenches.

COVID is now an ‘endemic,’ not a ‘pandemic,’ San Francisco doctors say

“An endemic phase of viral infections means … it’s not causing the terrible hospitalizations of the pandemic phase … that we’ll have enough immunity of a population so it’s kept down to low levels,”

Ahem. Say what now?




And before the inevitable rebuttal, California's better than the entire US, but not by a whole lot.



This is a discussion that needs to take place after the omicron wave is done, not while it still has a head of steam.

[Forogil]

The direction on who is eligible for Paxlovid is quite specific.

High-risk individuals with mild to moderate symptoms.

Not hospitalized.

Not on oxygen or increased oxygen.

Yes. I recall seeing that - I don't know why it is that specific.

Intuitively it would seem that stopping the virus from spreading in the body for a hospitalized patient would also be good, but you don't treat diseases on pure intuition. It could be that it would badly interact with something normally used in hospitals (the list of bad drug interactions is certainly long - Oxycodone is also on it), or it could also be that it just haven't been tested. I don't know.

...
San Francisco: 100 Paxlovid; 500 molnupiravir, of which 160 have been received.

The 17th largest and 2nd densest city in the US only received 100 Paxlovid.

So far, but it doesn't seem like it would be that difficult to manufacture - so it might be ramped up later. And, of course, if supplies are limited you really have to use them effectively.

COVID is now an ‘endemic,’ not a ‘pandemic,’ San Francisco doctors say

Not unexpected, obviously other cities and countries aren't there yet, as the Omicron-wave will be going on for a month or two more in the world.

However, some of those changes are already implemented elsewhere - in particular most countries now look at hospitalization, not cases, for the severity. It's just that the number of cases are currently so huge in many places that there are too few left at work; and requiring people to work while infected is problematic to say the least.

For vaccination of children many countries have focused on what is best for the children (not vaccinating them for the good of society), and still recommended vaccinating children. The reason is not only that children can be severely ill (and the vaccines reduce that already low risk) - but also that even if they get a mild disease (or have to be quarantined - if the rules are looser for the vaccinated) they will miss school, and that isn't good either.

[Rasulis]

Ahem. [B]This is a discussion that needs to take place after the omicron wave is done, not while it still has a head of steam.

They are differentiating between admitted "with" Covid as opposed to "for" Covid. The number of patients admitted "with" Covid is high reflecting the high transmission rate of Omicron. However, the number of patients actually admitted "for" Covid ranges between one-third to one-half of that. The actual hospital bed occupancy for the Bay Area is normal. As for California, there are regions where the hospitals are stressed out. However, overall, the hospital bed occupancies for both acute and ICU are hovering at around 82%.

California Hospital Bed Occupancy by County.

California is actually doing much better than Florida, and a LOT better than Texas. The majority of Texas counties ICU bed availabilities are red.

Florida Hospital Bed Occupancy by County

Texas Hospital Bed Occupancy by County

Deeper dive into the numbers. Three California counties (Amador, Merced and Benito) ICU beds availabilities are red. However, all three are small counties with only 6, 24 and 4 ICU beds. In contrast, almost all of Texas most populated counties are red. Although, not quite as bad as Texas, Florida have some of their high population counties in red also.

[PhaelixWW]

They are differentiating between admitted "with" Covid as opposed to "for" Covid. The number of patients admitted "with" Covid is high reflecting the high transmission rate of Omicron. However, the number of patients actually admitted "for" Covid ranges between one-third to one-half of that. The actual hospital bed occupancy for the Bay Area is normal. As for California, there are regions where the hospitals are stressed out. However, overall, the hospital bed occupancies for both acute and ICU are hovering at around 82%.

First, you'll have to source the 1/3 to 1/2 claim.

New York publicized a 57% stat for the state. And New York has been hit much worse by omicron than California, which means that a much larger percentage of the people who come in for non-COVID reasons are likely to have been exposed to COVID and thus test positive. California's (and pretty much any other location's) rate is bound to be higher than that of New York. [EDIT: proportions are still proportional, derp]

More importantly, you have no idea what those percentages looked like for other waves. It's entirely possible that there was still a decent chunk of the hospitalizations during the waves last summer and winter were what would be considered incidental infection at this point. So if, theoretically, they were 80% in California before, and 70% now, that wouldn't be a terribly significant drop.

Regardless of any of that, even ignoring 50% of California's current COVID hospitalizations would place it over or just about even with the height of the delta wave last summer.

So yeah, it's too soon to start talking about making a policy change to endemic in California.

[Rasulis]

First, you'll have to source the 1/3 to 1/2 claim.

New York publicized a 57% stat for the state. And New York has been hit much worse by omicron than California, which means that a much larger percentage of the people who come in for non-COVID reasons are likely to have been exposed to COVID and thus test positive. California's (and pretty much any other location's) rate is bound to be higher than that of New York. [EDIT: proportions are still proportional, derp]

More importantly, you have no idea what those percentages looked like for other waves. It's entirely possible that there was still a decent chunk of the hospitalizations during the waves last summer and winter were what would be considered incidental infection at this point. So if, theoretically, they were 80% in California before, and 70% now, that wouldn't be a terribly significant drop.

Regardless of any of that, even ignoring 50% of California's current COVID hospitalizations would place it over or just about even with the height of the delta wave last summer.

So yeah, it's too soon to start talking about making a policy change to endemic in California.

The source from my previous post.

Roughly two-thirds of COVID-positive patients at hospitals run by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Services were admitted for something other than the virus.

Marin County hospitals on had a near-record high of 19 COVID patients — but at least 42% were incidental cases.

Berkeley is experiencing a “phenomenal” surge in cases, but only three residents have been hospitalized for COVID-19 in December.

California hospital over time bed utilization looks pretty flat. You would assume with that many patients with Covid you would see the hospital bed utilization spike way up.



Based on conversation with my father who used to be the head of a hospital, 85% utilization or lower is considered good. Too low and you ended up with people twiddling their thumbs.