Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Edge-]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...262212557.html

Florida undercounted COVID cases and deaths, failed to get test results, state audit says

Florida’s COVID-19 data was so inaccurate, incomplete and delayed during the first months of the pandemic that government officials and the public may not have had necessary information to determine the effectiveness of the state’s COVID-19 precautions and the best plan to fight the virus, according to a state report released Monday.

Covering the state’s pandemic response from March to October 2020, the yearlong analysis by the Florida Auditor General found missing case and death data, unreported ethnic and racial details, and incomplete contact tracing as the coronavirus spread across the state. In addition, the report concluded that state health officials did not perform routine checks on the data to ensure accuracy and did not follow up on discrepancies.

Yet one top state health official, Department of Health spokesperson Jeremy Redfern, said the Auditor General’s report was flawed.

Redfern said “some of the conclusions come from (the auditors’) misunderstanding of the purpose of different datasets,” adding that “the report does not address the huge advancements we’ve made in modernizing our reporting systems.”

State auditors reviewed a sample of 2,600 tests taken at three state-run testing facilities and found that state-contracted laboratories failed to return results for nearly 60% of tests.

Redfern said he could not say whether any of the missing results were positive, or whether potentially positive individuals had been notified of their results.

ETHNIC, RACIAL DATA MISSING

Test results that were returned often failed to report basic demographic information. Nearly 60 percent of cases didn’t list the ethnicity of the individual and more than half didn’t list the race.

Missing demographic data wasn’t unique to Florida, said Beth Blauer, executive director of the Centers for Civic Impact at Johns Hopkins University, but it is “the most critical piece of information that we lacked.” Johns Hopkins has tracked the coronavirus since the beginning, with its COVID-19 dashboard.

POOR CONTACT TRACING

Once cases were identified, health officials were to contact all COVID-positive individuals within 48 hours of being diagnosed, according to state guidelines.

However, auditors found that the state never spoke with 23% of infected individuals. Those who the state did contact were often reached over a week after testing positive, leaving ample time for them to spread the virus to others.

Yet given how quickly the pandemic escalated to more than 80,000 cases per week in the first seven months, the state’s contact tracing wasn’t bad, Redfern said.

“We wouldn’t be able to hire enough people fast enough to meet that demand,” Redfern said. “It’s unrealistic to think that’d be sustainable.”

In January 2022, the state officially recommended that county health departments cease COVID-19 contact tracing, according to an email from Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo.

Auditors also found more than 3,000 cases of COVID-19 deaths reported by physicians that didn’t appear in the state’s list of deaths.

Many missing records were likely due to typos or clerical errors, the report concluded. However, the report found state records were missing or significantly delayed for almost 40% of missing deaths it reviewed.

Department of Health officials told auditors that death reports may take up to 60 days to appear in the official state count — “a very long time to wait to see how deadly an emerging disease is,” Blauer said.

Redfern said that auditors misunderstood death reporting requirements and that the delay in reporting did not substantially alter the state’s pandemic response.

The Department of Health responded in an email to the Auditor General that it concurs with the report’s recommendation to improve the accuracy of future data collection. The department said it will investigate discrepancies and review data policies by the end of the year.

Man, so it sounds a lot less like Florida intentionally ratfucked their numbers, but the incompetence of their leadership and the lack of seriousness they took the pandemic with resulted in the state fucking up spectacularly.

All while the current Health Department spokesperson is on full damage control mode.

I mean I have no reason to disbelieve the IG report, and it speaks to how many states have woefully underfunded departments in charge of crucial work like helping combat an active pandemic.

[PhaelixWW]

Man, so it sounds a lot less like Florida intentionally ratfucked their numbers, but the incompetence of their leadership and the lack of seriousness they took the pandemic with resulted in the state fucking up spectacularly.

It still qualifies as intentional ratfuckery when they intentionally failed to address repeated, known failures of the system in order to keep those numbers undercounted.

[Edge-]

It still qualifies as intentional ratfuckery when they intentionally failed to address repeated, known failures of the system in order to keep those numbers undercounted.

Less "they went in and meddled" and more "they didn't give enough of a fuck to address the obvious problems", was what I was getting at.

Because I guess a lot of state leadership in the US was largely unconcerned how many of their constituents died, apparently.

[Breccia]

More importantly, cases aren't really surging right now. They wouldn't want to start doing boosters now and then to have that immunity start to wane when there's a later surge. Right now, they're considering authorizing a second booster for the fall, to help combat the inevitable fall/winter surge.

Good, because this just happened.

Pfizer on Tuesday said a study showed its COVID-19 pill Paxlovid didn't significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization or death in people with a standard risk of developing severe infections.

The results could mean the antiviral could be largely limited to high-risk patient populations, where it's been shown to be effective.

Pfizer said it was halting enrollment in the study of standard-risk patients after Paxlovid showed a 51% risk reduction, which the company called "non-significant."

The results will be rolled into an application for full FDA approval of the drug in high-risk patients.

Pfizer said the findings won't affect its full-year 2022 revenue forecast.

/eyeroll

So yeah, this won't be a miracle pill anyone can take. Am I glad there's new hope for high-risk patients? Of course. But I'd be happier if there was something even the, erm, "most skeptical" people could just take, possibly pretending it's hydroxyvermectbleach, and be done with it.

And yeah, I'm already wary about the upcoming back-to-school surge.

[PhaelixWW]

And yeah, I'm already wary about the upcoming back-to-school surge.

I'm hopeful that it won't be that bad. There certainly wasn't a big push at that time last year. We were still coming off the delta high and we didn't see the omicron surge until the holidays.

The spring surge was late this year, due in large part to the omicron "reset" and huge initial hit. I'm thinking we might see a bit more of a gradual increase through late summer and into back-to-school, as the lingering immunity from the spring push will cause a decrease in the normal tentpoles of summer and back-to-school infection cycles, kind of like a breakwater.

Winter will still probably be the worst season, as it usually is, and for the same reasons it usually is.

Unless, of course, we see an entirely different new variant...


Edit: In related news, BA.4 and BA.5 continue to make headway against BA.2.12.1 and will likely help extend the spring surge for a few additional weeks.

[Mayhem]

I'm hopeful that it won't be that bad. There certainly wasn't a big push at that time last year. We were still coming off the delta high and we didn't see the omicron surge until the holidays.

The spring surge was late this year, due in large part to the omicron "reset" and huge initial hit. I'm thinking we might see a bit more of a gradual increase through late summer and into back-to-school, as the lingering immunity from the spring push will cause a decrease in the normal tentpoles of summer and back-to-school infection cycles, kind of like a breakwater.

Winter will still probably be the worst season, as it usually is, and for the same reasons it usually is.

Unless, of course, we see an entirely different new variant...

Winter you say? Australian summer I answer.

Seriously, this virus does not care about weather, Australia had it's highest infection rates during Jan aka summer.

[Breccia]

I'm hopeful that it won't be that bad.

Agreed, and not just because I'm on the front lines. But because it would mean we've learned something as a sentient species.

[PhaelixWW]

Seriously, this virus does not care about weather

Of course weather plays a role. It's not the only one, however.

Australia had it's highest infection rates during Jan aka summer.

And Australia celebrates things like Christmas/Hanukkah/etc., New Years, and Australia Day all in a roughly month-long time frame, with all attendant travel and group gathering, correct?

- - - Updated - - -

Agreed, and not just because I'm on the front lines. But because it would mean we've learned something as a sentient species.

The human race still tends to fail upward over time. Of course, it only takes one civilization ending catastrophe to wipe us out, so we'd rather maintain that 100% record.

Even most of the stupid people will have immune systems more capable of fighting off subsequent COVID infections by this point. Their open flouting of danger won't have as much of an impact going forward...

....at least for this specific virus.

[Forogil]

And Australia celebrates things like Christmas/Hanukkah/etc., New Years, and Australia Day all in a roughly month-long time frame, with all attendant travel and group gathering, correct?

True, but the virus-variant and government policy responses also matter.

That was when the more contagious Delta-variant spread and parts of Australia relaxed restrictions (in part to allow celebrations and in part because so many were vaccinated that the risk was low enough).

[Strawberry]

Ya'll still yapping about this non-deadly virus and taking vaccines, boosters and shit? Lol, so last year. Irrelevant even then.

[Mayhem]

Of course weather plays a role. It's not the only one, however.

Really? Doesn't seem to matter much, we're currently on to the next wave and it's 86 to 90 outside.

And Australia celebrates things like Christmas/Hanukkah/etc., New Years, and Australia Day all in a roughly month-long time frame, with all attendant travel and group gathering, correct?

Sorry, I thought we were talking about the weather. Silly me.

Fun fact, Australia had 3 waves this year already.

- - - Updated - - -

Even most of the stupid people will have immune systems more capable of fighting off subsequent COVID infections by this point. Their open flouting of danger won't have as much of an impact going forward...

Recent studies disagree with the notion that infections boost protection, in fact, it could lead to impaired protection against a new variant.

[postman1782]

Ya'll still yapping about this non-deadly virus and taking vaccines, boosters and shit? Lol, so last year. Irrelevant even then.

Guess you never had anyone get it? Have anyone die from it? And this is the deadliest virus we have had in recorded history. And the vaccines work.

[Forogil]

Guess you never had anyone get it? Have anyone die from it? And this is the deadliest virus we have had in recorded history. And the vaccines work.

The vaccines work, and I've seen people have it with various results; so getting the vaccines is a really good idea.

However, it's not the deadliest virus in recorded history - currently it's not even the deadliest virus epidemic during my life-time. HIV/Aids have killed about 36 million, Covid-19 about 20 million - and HIV/Aids killed almost all infected, before we got the good drugs.

- - - Updated - - -

Recent studies disagree with the notion that infections boost protection, in fact, it could lead to impaired protection against a new variant.

WHO disagrees with that, and as expected finds that both prior infections, vaccinations, and especially combinations of them protect to some extent against new infections. (Clearly vaccinations are generally the safer and more predictable route; whether prior infection or vaccination gives the best protection depends on different factors - and the simple option is always to get vaccinated regardless.)

https://www.who.int/news/item/01-06-...evalence-rates

[Mayhem]

WHO disagrees with that, and as expected finds that both prior infections, vaccinations, and especially combinations of them protect to some extent against new infections. (Clearly vaccinations are generally the safer and more predictable route; whether prior infection or vaccination gives the best protection depends on different factors - and the simple option is always to get vaccinated regardless.)

https://www.who.int/news/item/01-06-...evalence-rates

"While the overall evidence suggests that hybrid immunity offers superior protection against severe outcomes due to COVID-19 compared to infection-induced or vaccine-induced immunity alone, it is unclear whether this protection will persist with new variants. For instance, evolving evidence suggests that an Omicron BA.1 infection offers only limited protection against symptomatic disease caused by the emerging sub-lineages of Omicron (BA.4 and BA.5)19. "

No, they don't.

[uuuhname]

Ya'll still yapping about this non-deadly virus and taking vaccines, boosters and shit? Lol, so last year. Irrelevant even then.

do you think diseases work on like a 9 to 5 salary job basis or something? I cannot begin to understand this mindset of people who think you can cancel a virus or something... you know West Nile virus is a thing you can still catch, right? you know that thing we all freaked out about in the early 00's? these things don't go away because you want them to....

[Forogil]

"While the overall evidence suggests that hybrid immunity offers superior protection against severe outcomes due to COVID-19 compared to infection-induced or vaccine-induced immunity alone, it is unclear whether this protection will persist with new variants. For instance, evolving evidence suggests that an Omicron BA.1 infection offers only limited protection against symptomatic disease caused by the emerging sub-lineages of Omicron (BA.4 and BA.5)19. "

Which exactly confirm what I stated, and contradict your statements.

Limited protection is better than none, and more importantly that was potentially just against symptomatic disease - in general we have seen a greater protection against serious disease and death.

And even no protection would be better than the negative protection you suggested.

However, the study didn't include uninfected persons, and didn't investigate if people actually were infected with BA.4/BA.5 and if so symptomatically or not, and how severely; so it is just a first step. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...77v1.full-text

[Mayhem]

Which exactly confirm what I stated, and contradict your statements.

Limited protection is better than none, and more importantly that was potentially just against symptomatic disease - in general we have seen a greater protection against serious disease and death.

And even no protection would be better than the negative protection you suggested.

However, the study didn't include uninfected persons, and didn't investigate if people actually were infected with BA.4/BA.5 and if so symptomatically or not, and how severely; so it is just a first step. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...77v1.full-text

I guess I misread the limited part, my bad.

I was talking about this study btw.: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...05.04.490614v1

[Forogil]

I guess I misread the limited part, my bad.

I was talking about this study btw.: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...05.04.490614v1

Interesting - but as I see it shows that the virus reduces the subsequent T-cell immunity (in various ways), so that you get less long-term immunity than for other infections - not that the immunity completely disappears or is even negated.

I don't know how important that is for the virus in humans, but I could see that it is helpful in bats that have evolved to live with viral infections to a larger extent than other mammals.

[Edge-]

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/17/flo...d-vaccine-kids

DeSantis and Florida Republicans are finally getting out of the way of people making their own health care decisions for themselves and their family and has fairly quickly reversed their stance on pre-ordering vaccines for children 1-5. Previously they weren't ordering any, and there are mixed reports on if they were forbidding pediatricians from pre-ordering them. Either way, pediatricians can no do so and work with parents as they make health care decisions for their families. Instead of the state making those health care decisions for them.

[Kent088]

Wow I just discovered this thread. This should be archived one day for the amount of start-finish updates and opinions.

I still maintain that whatever variant was spreading around Wuhan was significantly deadlier than whatever variant escaped. I remember watching videos of people dropping dead on the sidewalk(Unfortunately no one mentioned I would see a person die in the videos). And it hits the West and the death rate plummets. And I remember reading somewhere that pollution made it worse, but then in the West they weren't finding pollution or even smoking to have serious effects on death rates. That's my theory.

Now it's a vaccine discussion thread, lol