The Brexit aftermath thread

[Crispin]

Dunno about that...

If the UK decides that it wants back in, I'm willing to bet the EU will take them with open arms.

I honestly think they'd have to go through the process of regular applications.

Showing that you can just exit, and jump back in if it doesnt work out, would set a terrible precedent for other countries trying the same.

[Temp name]

You guys still don't get it. Nobody ever discussed the pound. Denmark still have the kroner. Nobody cares. But as far as trading goes, every month Britain is weakening the argument of how important they are as a trading partner Russia is doing more damaged to the economy than Brexit did.

There's a difference between being allowed to keep a currency because joined when it wasn't required to swap, and then grandfathered in to allow it, and joining after it's been a rule that you have to swap and getting an exception made.

[Slant]

There's a difference between being allowed to keep a currency because joined when it wasn't required to swap, and then grandfathered in to allow it, and joining after it's been a rule that you have to swap and getting an exception made.

There is a mechanism to prevent that swap. Denmark has employed it for 20 years. even bringing this up shows the gnorance still prevalent in the UK. It is not an issue.

[Mazza]

There is a mechanism to prevent that swap. Denmark has employed it for 20 years. even bringing this up shows the gnorance still prevalent in the UK. It is not an issue.

If I remember correctly the backdoor that both Denmark and Sweden have used to prevent swapping to the Euro is gone for new members. If the UK would rejoin without some sort of negotiated deal but through the current procedures they can not keep the pound.

I am a bit foggy on the details, but it had something to do with one of the steps that is required to join the Euro not being mandatory. These steps now all are for new members, so the UK can not do what Denmark and Sweden did.

[Nymrohd]

If I remember correctly the backdoor that both Denmark and Sweden have used to prevent swapping to the Euro is gone for new members. If the UK would rejoin without some sort of negotiated deal but through the current procedures they can not keep the pound.

I am a bit foggy on the details, but it had something to do with one of the steps that is required to join the Euro not being mandatory. These steps now all are for new members, so the UK can not do what Denmark and Sweden did.

Exactly. Opt out rights were codified as specific exemptions, negotiated on a per state basis instead of as a general option back at the Maastricht treaty. Any state that enters at a later time is bound by the treaties and would need to negotiate any exemptions and be granted those exemptions through unanimous votes.

[Slant]

Exactly. Opt out rights were codified as specific exemptions, negotiated on a per state basis instead of as a general option back at the Maastricht treaty. Any state that enters at a later time is bound by the treaties and would need to negotiate any exemptions and be granted those exemptions through unanimous votes.

I stand corrected. But I think those exemptions were due to Denmark continually failing certain convergence criteria on purpose to avoid introduction of the Euro. Unless I am mistaken, that can still be constructed today. I still see no issue.

However, I'm also fine with the UK staying out. They'll have to do a lot more learning about the EU before I would change my mind. And this includes not just Brexiteers but the general masses. It's not as simple as "re-applying and just getting in". Open arms? Doubt.

[Barzotti]

Dunno about that...

If the UK decides that it wants back in, I'm willing to bet the EU will take them with open arms.

Fuck them, the UK has been a gigantic pain in the EU's ass during more than forty years and still keeps being a pain in the ass even after the Brexit. The 2016-2022 era shows without any doubt that you can't trust the UK politicians at all (May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Truss) because negotiating in bad faith, behaving like lying pricks and spitting on the EU at any occasion is their favorite pastime. Let the old racists and xenophobics jerk off in the Union flag about their imperial glory while their economy crumbles.

If the UK leaders had acted in good faith during the Brexit negotiations and been a trustworthy partner, why wouldn't they rejoin? But they made it adamantly clear that they cannot be trusted in any shape or form. At this point, for the EU, the UK is the cheating ex who will definitely keep on cheating on you if by some weakness of mind you decide to give him/her a second chance.

[Nymrohd]

I stand corrected. But I think those exemptions were due to Denmark continually failing certain convergence criteria on purpose to avoid introduction of the Euro. Unless I am mistaken, that can still be constructed today. I still see no issue.

However, I'm also fine with the UK staying out. They'll have to do a lot more learning about the EU before I would change my mind. And this includes not just Brexiteers but the general masses. It's not as simple as "re-applying and just getting in". Open arms? Doubt.

Given that the entire crop of current public servants in Brussels probably all have had to deal with some type of mess personally because of the UK I am sure excitement for them rejoining is greatly exaggerated.

[dribbles]

Fuck them, the UK has been a gigantic pain in the EU's ass during more than forty years and still keeps being a pain in the ass even after the Brexit. The 2016-2022 era shows without any doubt that you can't trust the UK politicians at all (May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Truss) because negotiating in bad faith, behaving like lying pricks and spitting on the EU at any occasion is their favorite pastime. Let the old racists and xenophobics jerk off in the Union flag about their imperial glory while their economy crumbles.

If the UK leaders had acted in good faith during the Brexit negotiations and been a trustworthy partner, why wouldn't they rejoin? But they made it adamantly clear that they cannot be trusted in any shape or form. At this point, for the EU, the UK is the cheating ex who will definitely keep on cheating on you if by some weakness of mind you decide to give him/her a second chance.

Please don't worry about the UK trying to re-join, no serious politician here advocates for that, such have been the benefits of Brexit.

Every day the UK is outside of the EU the further and further apart we drift making re-joining less and less likely as time goes by. Fantastic.

Talk of the UK having to ditch the pound and use the euro? Will never happen, you just added 10% to the stay out option in any future UK re-join second referendum right there, not that one is even whispered about in Westminster. Wonderful.

Then you have the Liz Truss factor. If, no when, she is the next UK PM if you thought Boris was bad for UK/EU relations, Mad Liz is badder on steroids. You wait until she gets her grubby mitts on the NI protocol negotiations soon, you eurochums have seen nothing yet. I can't wait!

[Barzotti]

Please don't worry about the UK trying to re-join, no serious politician here advocates for that, such have been the benefits of Brexit.

Every day the UK is outside of the EU the further and further apart we drift making re-joining less and less likely as time goes by. Fantastic.

Talk of the UK having to ditch the pound and use the euro? Will never happen, you just added 10% to the stay out option in any future UK re-join second referendum right there, not that one is even whispered about in Westminster. Wonderful.

Then you have the Liz Truss factor. If, no when, she is the next UK PM if you thought Boris was bad for UK/EU relations, Mad Liz is badder on steroids. You wait until she gets her grubby mitts on the NI protocol negotiations soon, you eurochums have seen nothing yet. I can't wait!

Oh, I wouldn't worry too much about the UK trying to re-join, the UK politicians such as Truss are way too stupid and ignorant to make such a rational and intelligent decision. And I can't wait to see her negotiate the NI protocol, it will be a truly embarrassing albeit hilarious moment.

[Slant]

It's funny when the uninformed pretend that time and the UK/EU "drifting" apart is going to have any effect on a future application. If Ukraine can make it, so can... well, nevermind. Perhaps they can't. A lot of tutoring on the subject of the EU would be required. A lot.

[Barzotti]

It's funny when the uninformed pretend that time and the UK/EU "drifting" apart is going to have any effect on a future application. If Ukraine can make it, so can... well, nevermind. Perhaps they can't. A lot of tutoring on the subject of the EU would be required. A lot.

The odds of Ukraine joining the EU are about 0,00000001% (estimation out of my ass). The EU isn't too keen on expanding since the Eastern fiascos (Hungary, Poland) and Ukraine is even more corrupt and dysfunctional, less stable and democratic than Serbia or Albania. No country will join the EU in a foreseeable future.

[Crispin]

Please don't worry about the UK trying to re-join, no serious politician here advocates for that, such have been the benefits of Brexit.

Every day the UK is outside of the EU the further and further apart we drift making re-joining less and less likely as time goes by. Fantastic.

Talk of the UK having to ditch the pound and use the euro? Will never happen, you just added 10% to the stay out option in any future UK re-join second referendum right there, not that one is even whispered about in Westminster. Wonderful.

Then you have the Liz Truss factor. If, no when, she is the next UK PM if you thought Boris was bad for UK/EU relations, Mad Liz is badder on steroids. You wait until she gets her grubby mitts on the NI protocol negotiations soon, you eurochums have seen nothing yet. I can't wait!

Yes I’m sure she’ll destroy any goodwill you have left in the US, when she takes a piss on the NI protocol.

Next you’ll look to Russia for that brexit support, glory brexit lol.

[Edge-]

Then you have the Liz Truss factor.

Man I'm glad John Oliver exposed me to the absolute unintentional hilarious of Liz Truss. Seriously, I thought it was just an American thing, but it seems to be a global thing where conservatives are largely not remotely funny when they try to be, but are unintentionally hilarious for reasons they don't understand.

[Slant]

The odds of Ukraine joining the EU are about 0,00000001% (estimation out of my ass). The EU isn't too keen on expanding since the Eastern fiascos (Hungary, Poland) and Ukraine is even more corrupt and dysfunctional, less stable and democratic than Serbia or Albania. No country will join the EU in a foreseeable future.

Er, you haven't read the news lately, have you? The EU all but begged Ukraine to start the membership process. And looking at Ukraine, while there is quite some room for improvement, strategically they are only slightly less valuable than Turkey.

And rest assured, Turkey isn't in NATO because of their regard for human rights or democracy.

[zealo]

The odds of Ukraine joining the EU are about 0,00000001% (estimation out of my ass). The EU isn't too keen on expanding since the Eastern fiascos (Hungary, Poland) and Ukraine is even more corrupt and dysfunctional, less stable and democratic than Serbia or Albania. No country will join the EU in a foreseeable future.

There's a good chance we're about to witness a government reforming speed-run in the case of Ukraine. The war will have done a lot to upset the status qou for them when the dust eventually settles.

[Barzotti]

Er, you haven't read the news lately, have you? The EU all but begged Ukraine to start the membership process. And looking at Ukraine, while there is quite some room for improvement, strategically they are only slightly less valuable than Turkey.

And rest assured, Turkey isn't in NATO because of their regard for human rights or democracy.

You should ask Turkey how the membership process is going for them, huh? Starting the membership process doesn't mean shit. It guarantees nothing. It doesn't even mean the negotiations to join the EU started. Albania, North Macedonia, Moldavia are really far from joining the EU currently even though they started the process.

There's a good chance we're about to witness a government reforming speed-run in the case of Ukraine. The war will have done a lot to upset the status qou for them when the dust eventually settles.

I think it's highly unlikely in the foreseeable future because it depends on two main factors:

- How much time and money is needed to make Ukraine up to the EU standards (in terms of economy, democracy, environment, policies against corruption...)
- How much are the big EU countries (Germany, France...) willing to pay for a new member's development.

In the Western European countries, the public opinions are strongly opposed to new enlargements because those countries are tired of paying for less developed countries while seeing little to no progress in some cases (Hungary/Poland). I can link a map if you want, but it's in french.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Interesting article on the reality of the damage that Brexit has done:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...us-for-britain

And another article warning that inflation is going to rise still further (and don't forget that Brexit is the reason why our inflation is so much worse than our EU counterparts). This is going to trigger significant rises in interest rates, and push us into a recession:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...hinktank-warns

On the other side of the scales, dribbles thinks everything is going wonderfully and Brexit is a huge success. He can't provide any facts to support this, mind you, but his "feels" tell him it must be true.

[Nymrohd]

I think any attempt at expansion of the EU will be vetoed until the unilateral veto for any decision is in itself abolished. Unless the pro-reform member states and the parliament as a whole believe they will have the means to act against bad faith actors like Hungary in the future through such reform, then we will not see any expansion and certainly not to include states whose public sector is corrupt, greatly compromised to Russia (most of the Balkans would fall there) or chronically bad faith actors (like the UK or Turkey).

[Barzotti]

I think any attempt at expansion of the EU will be vetoed until the unilateral veto for any decision is in itself abolished. Unless the pro-reform member states and the parliament as a whole believe they will have the means to act against bad faith actors like Hungary in the future through such reform, then we will not see any expansion and certainly not to include states whose public sector is corrupt, greatly compromised to Russia (most of the Balkans would fall there) or chronically bad faith actors (like the UK or Turkey).

Exactly. EU's territorial construction is pretty much over at this point. I even think it could be more likely to see countries removed from the EU by the EU, than enlargements.

Interesting article on the reality of the damage that Brexit has done:

I remember reading an article about how gas and electricity bills rose up to 54% in april. I don't even know how common people manage to live decently in the UK with such tremendous inflation. More than 50% in one single month. That's staggering.