Dragonflight 10.X Patches & World Soul Saga Speculation Thread

[Super Dickmann]

But the assertion made by our resident sugar-addled child was that it was higher at the end. SL's entire run was helped by Classic even if it had diminishing returns, and it is factually still lower at the end.

Oh, he's wrong about that, but while BFA fails the most in comparison to its expected margin until Vanilla comes along, SL's rate of failure, per the graph is marginally lower and it never reaches the same spot. The statistical defense of BFA, much like any defense of it, is an exercise in clownery. Though mind, the graph is nonsense as well, both because of the lack of the actual required axis and because if we go by this signifier, the worst expansion is for sure Cataclysm, as it dipped the most subscribers relative to where it started.

The clarity of Sargeras as a baddie is that he doesn't appear, making him, intended to be a larger than life divine threat actually work as such, we never find him, and he's referenced (though doesn't appear) for years on end. The fact that until the very end his only presence in Legion physically is as a voice and as a cloud shows this understanding of what the writers and their success at communicating. He's not characterized, but he doesn't need to be, since he's easy to grasp and what he's involved in. Explaining why the Bald Man fails is like explaining why water is wet, but one of the key reasons he fails even as an episodic villain, let alone as Sargeras 2.0 as Steve obviously wanted him to be is because he has no clear concept. Anything from an evil overlord to Jigsaw in space to Skynet to LK 2.0 is, if not a good character, then a character. He's all of these things and none of them and even his visual design is noncommittal dross.

[Reive]

The Jailer's mediocrity is simple, they tried too hard to retroactively connect him to previous storylines.

Do you think that Lei-Shen would have been received well if it was retconned that he created the Trolls using blood magic? Or that he somehow manipulated the Lich King to start his BS? Or that he indirectly caused Deathwing to start the Cataclysm in order to force the Zandalari to seek his help?

The Jailer would have worked fine as a self-contained villain, an envious and cruel being of Death who seized an opportunity when Sylvanas shattered the Veil. He didn't need to be retroactively connected to the Legion and Scourge.

But when you try to pretend like the Legion and Scourge were all part of the Jailer's masterplan? Nah, no one is buying into that nonsense.

Also, they should have kept this design, as he looks cooler, more badass, more mysterious, and more original (and also more respectable, as he doesn't flash his tits at the screen):

a guy on wowhead wrote an article with clues and everything explaining why the primus was the real jailer. wish he was right. it would have partially redeemed the story of shadowlands imo

[Varodoc]

SL has caused irreparable damage to the setting.

Sargeras was never the big bad of the Warcraft franchise, because the Jailer manipulated him by sending the Nathrezim coven to Telogrus so that Sargeras would learn about the Void. And also the Jailer manipulated Sargeras because he had the Nathrezim infuse Argus with Death power right under Sargeras' nose.

In Shadowlands, the Nathrezim state that Sargeras and the Legion were just a pawn.

So you thought that Sargeras was the big bad of the Warcraft franchise? Well, not really, because the Jailer just used him like a tool for millennia and he didn't even have a clue.

I'm surprised the Old Gods were never manipulated by the Jailer, unless... the Jailer told Yogg-Saron to start using Death magic?

[Dracullus]

This isn't very complicated. BFA at its lowest point was beneath SL at its, with BFA only being rescued by a Classic release.

But we were talking about final sub count, now you are comparing 8.1.5 to second half of SL.

Also, you bring Classic only when it fits you, somehow forgetting that during 8.1.5 we had only BfA, but during first half of 2022 we had: SL, TBC Classic and Era/SoM running at same time.

Crazy cope tbh

Dude, it's raw data. We can argue about anything, but claiming 2+2=5 when you have answer in front of your eyes is ridicolous.

(Of course assuming this is true graph).

[Vakir]

The statistical defense of BFA, much like any defense of it, is an exercise in clownery. Though mind, the graph is nonsense as well, both because of the lack of the actual required axis and because if we go by this signifier, the worst expansion is for sure Cataclysm, as it dipped the most subscribers relative to where it started.

That's the thing, it's not defense. It's not an accurate reading of statistics, with or without a Y-axis. For the time of BFA's duration, number variance is going to be naturally chunkier, because you're seeing a game without Classic, a huge surge from Classic, and a massive drop off of Classic players that came off the fad and stopped playing at level 32 to go back to slinging slurs on League or something. SL had Classic factored into its numbers the entire run, including the release of BC Classic, which between fresh Blood Elves/Draenei, preference of content era, and paid boosts allowed another surge of players.

The graph is horrendously misleading by putting the logo of new releases too soon and too late visually relative to when they actually popped up.

[Woggmer]

Actually, now that I think about it: they could make this into a pve version of Plunderstorm for the pve whiners. Instead of dying and killing each other, you have to collect ancient mana or you will turn into a withered. And when you do, you lose and have to leave the match.

Not to disagree, but isn't that just Island Expeditions but on a bigger map? I don't know about Suramar though, the city part of the zone makes it too dense to work with. Highmountain or Azsuna would work better.

Even places like the Barrens, Valley of Four Winds, Stormsong Valley, Uldum, or even Westfall could work.

[Super Dickmann]

Also, you bring Classic only when it fits you, somehow forgetting that during 8.1.5 we had only BfA, but during first half of 2022 we had: SL, TBC Classic and Era/SoM running at same time.

Others might be talking about the sub count, I wasn't. And indeed I am bringing up Classic only when it suits me, just observe my smooth pivot to pointing out how BFA fails more compared to expectations at its lowest point than SL ever gets. Notwithstanding this, I don't think anyone would seriously argue that the Classic surge, the most meaningful jump in subs of any release in WoW history is more so than what by the time of Classic TBC are essentially content updates baked into the cake and that this is further backed by how little these releases move the bar per the graph.

[Woggmer]

a guy on wowhead wrote an article with clues and everything explaining why the primus was the real jailer. wish he was right. it would have partially redeemed the story of shadowlands imo

One of the original early concepts for the Jailer made him look like the Primus.. I think the biggest hurdle they dealt with is... if we're going into the Underworld/Land of the Departed, how does the Lich King fit into all this? Is the Primus the Lich King?

The moment they had to make Sylvanas break the Helm of Domination and open the veil between the Shadowlands, they were pretty much dead-set on the path they were on. If they tried to diminish it then it would only raise a bunch of questions.

[Super Dickmann]

That's the thing, it's not defense. It's not an accurate reading of statistics, with or without a Y-axis. For the time of BFA's duration, number variance is going to be naturally chunkier, because you're seeing a game without Classic, a huge surge from Classic, and a massive drop off of Classic players that came off the fad and stopped playing at level 32 to go back to slinging slurs on League or something. SL had Classic factored into its numbers the entire run, including the release of BC Classic, which between fresh Blood Elves/Draenei, preference of content era, and paid boosts allowed another surge of players.

Theoretically, sure, in practice, no we can clearly see from the graph that TBC is statistical white noise, meaningless, compared to the huge jump that is Classic, which is also borne out by common sense, what with Classic being one of the biggest releases of that particular year in terms of press and initial interest, whereas TBC was a niche product to the remaining population of those servers.

[Reive]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHDF...llularWarcraft

video from bellular

[Vakir]

Others might be talking about the sub count, I wasn't. And indeed I am bringing up Classic only when it suits me, just observe my smooth pivot to pointing out how BFA fails more compared to expectations at its lowest point than SL ever gets.

...that's the point? The fall isn't as significant because many of those numbers are pillowed by the presence of an entire other game.

Notwithstanding this, I don't think anyone would seriously argue that the Classic surge, the most meaningful jump in subs of any release in WoW history is more so than what by the time of Classic TBC are essentially content updates baked into the cake and that this is further backed by how little these releases move the bar per the graph.

Yeah, no. BC absolutely was treated like a new release both in terms of bullshit MTX packages as if it was an actually sold product, boosts for getting into it ASAP but explicitly not allowing boosts for the marquee races to inflate time played, two server variations, etc.

You're not seeing these huge ups and downs but it's because at that point the variance is largely behind the scenes. You'd need information on Classic that just doesn't exist as of right now.

Theoretically, sure, in practice, no we can clearly see from the graph that TBC is statistical white noise, meaningless, compared to the huge jump that is Classic, which is also borne out by common sense, what with Classic being one of the biggest releases of that particular year in terms of press and initial interest, whereas TBC was a niche product to the remaining population of those servers.

But people sub and unsub every day. Those changes aren't always baked into one or another moment.

Classic's huge hike doesn't presuppose that BC's numbers weren't significant just because line did not go up as much because we also don't independently know how much SL gained or lost in that time.

The only thing we can be sure of is: BFA's record low was in absence of an entire other game, and then suddenly a large number went up because an entire other data set suddenly was subsumed in it.

That's it. That's literally the only thing we know for sure.

Others might be talking about the sub count, I wasn't.

Then don't "yes-and" quote reply to the baby saying something patently false! That's how this all started! You're better than that!

Auuuugh.

[Jastall]

Lmaooo Shadowlands' final sub count was higher than BFA's. That's crazy.

I'm not overly surprised, considering Shadowlands was helped by Classic (which wasn't released by BfA's lowest point) and because while BfA is getting the usual "it wasn't that bad" small popularity boost in hindsight now, when it was live a lot of people hated it for various reasons, like the terrible lore, disappointing final patch and massive overbloat of systems leading to degenerate gameplay. 9.2 wasn't amazing but to me it was definitely better than 8.3.

I am surprised at how well the subs are holding up now, even if doubtless Season of Discovery is doing a lot of the lifting. Despite the hollering against Dragonflight's lore, it seems that the quality of its gameplay and systems are holding it up. Then again Blizzard wouldn't already have announced 3 more expansions if they weren't confident in WoW's future in the first place.

[Super Dickmann]

Yeah, no. BC absolutely was treated like a new release both in terms of bullshit MTX packages as if it was an actually sold product, boosts for getting into it ASAP but explicitly not allowing boosts for the marquee races to inflate time played, two server variations, etc.

You're not seeing these huge ups and downs but it's because at that point the variance is largely behind the scenes. You'd need information on Classic that just doesn't exist as of right now.

No, we can pretty clearly determine whether there would be a surge or not, because we can see what a surge looks like via the comparison we have to Classic. By the time of TBC, Classic has flatlined as an additional product, with its core additional playerbase locked in. If it was buoying the playerbase with an additional subscription rate, it would be visible in the graph, but it doesn't, because by that point it's not a gaming event like the Classic release mid-BFA rightly was, but is just another separate product chugging along with its own consistent playerbase.

[Varodoc]

They should have made a separate version of that graph with just Retail subscriptions.

No shit Dragonflight had Legion-level subscription numbers. There was no Classic in Legion.

It would be a lot more interesting to see how a Classic-less Dragonflight and Shadowlands would compare to Legion.

Legion did not have Classic to artifically inflate its sub count, don't forget that.

[Reive]

They should have made a separate version of that graph with just Retail subscriptions.

No shit Dragonflight had Legion-level subscription numbers. There was no Classic in Legion.

It would be a lot more interesting to see how a Classic-less Dragonflight and Shadowlands would compare to Legion.

Legion did not have Classic to artifically inflate its sub count, don't forget that.

i don't think it would change that much. major releases aside there isn't much activity on classic.

by the time shadowlands came out, era was basically dead. the subs were almost all from retail
for dragonflight is probably the same because dragonflight came out 4 months after the release of classic wrath

[Dracullus]

They should have made a separate version of that graph with just Retail subscriptions.

Explain how to do that in service with joined subscription. xD

[Vakir]

No, we can pretty clearly determine whether there would be a surge or not, because we can see what a surge looks like via the comparison we have to Classic. By the time of TBC, Classic has flatlined as an additional product, with its core additional playerbase locked in. If it was buoying the playerbase with an additional subscription rate, it would be visible in the graph, but it doesn't, because by that point it's not a gaming event like the Classic release mid-BFA rightly was, but is just another separate product chugging along with its own consistent playerbase.

That surge is the entirety of Classic suddenly existing, yes.

But while there was a big event dropoff because Classic didn't retain everyone that started with it, Classic still has a pretty big secondary audience with its own content droughts and major updates.

The extreme number surge not being present isn't indicative of anything for the same reason that we don't see huge hikes for patch releases on the graph - it's largely streamlined. They don't even put BC where it should be as visually representing it, same as Wrath.

Also, crazy to pin all the blame on Shadowlands when BFA legit took what Legion started and made it 90 times worse.

Literally nobody of worth is doing this. Nobody is downplaying that BFA is also dogshit other than Varodoc, who is both contrarian and legally bound to their weird Void gimmick.

There's a way to read a chart competently while also acknowledging that two products suck independently.

[Varodoc]

Explain how to do that in service with joined subscription. xD

That's not My problem.

I'm simply saying it would be interesting to also get the version of that graph without Classic.

I don't need to explain anything to you.

Also, crazy to pin all the blame on Shadowlands when BFA legit took what Legion started and made it 90 times worse.

BfA also had 3 patches compared to Shadowlands' 2. It had 5 raids as opposed to Shadowlands' 3. It added 10 new races. It had 6 zones at Launch instead of just 5, and actual, Suramar-sized capital cities instead of pitiful Oribos.

[Makabreska]

Welp, I can confidently say that that BfA was my fav expansion since Legion, up until DF arrived. Best zones, best classic fantasy feel, best dungeons and raids. I got over the story years ago and borrowed powers and it's grind faded away from my memories.

[Jastall]

No, we can pretty clearly determine whether there would be a surge or not, because we can see what a surge looks like via the comparison we have to Classic. By the time of TBC, Classic has flatlined as an additional product, with its core additional playerbase locked in. If it was buoying the playerbase with an additional subscription rate, it would be visible in the graph, but it doesn't, because by that point it's not a gaming event like the Classic release mid-BFA rightly was, but is just another separate product chugging along with its own consistent playerbase.

That conclusion is also helped by Season of Discovery clearly boosting subs a lot itself. It seems Classic players want Classic, as in vanilla, even if it comes with some additional spice. Even the lauded Wrath itself didn't boost subs as significantly.

That said, the graph doesn't contain enough data for any sort of in-depth analysis, and mostly shows what Blizzard wanted it to show. Its primary aim is clearly to reassure whomever the target audience was (not forum grognards for sure) that things are going well.