Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Belize]

Ah yes, the Tragic Tale of Wages-Kun and Productivity-Chan:

[IMG]https://www.wykop.pl/cdn/c3201142/comment_WyjWKGhDVaBovH6qCVecngAi1iJLxbTZ,w400.jpgMG]

...

What that fuck?

[Elegiac]

...

What that fuck?

I mean it's not factually incorrect.

[Toppy]

...

What that fuck?

When the 40 hour work week was standardized the president at the time... I think it was Nixon? Maybe Reagan. It was an ironic one. Stated that they predict that due to the skyrocketing rates of productivity, that we would eventually hit a 30 or 25 hour work week with people still making the wages needed to live happy healthy lives.

Who could have forseen that instead we'd be working even harder, often longer, for far less.

[Elegiac]

When the 40 hour work week was standardized the president at the time... I think it was Nixon? Maybe Reagan. It was an ironic one. Stated that they predict that due to the skyrocketing rates of productivity, that we would eventually hit a 30 or 25 hour work week with people still making the wages needed to live happy healthy lives.

Who could have forseen that instead we'd be working even harder, often longer, for far less.

One of capitalism's greatest scams has been convincing people the 40 hour workweek is healthy or sustainable.

[zenkai]

I mean it's not factually incorrect.

Productivity has gone up because of modern technology. For instance I design things in 3D on a computer, I could do it on paper, I have the skill set to do it and it's how it was done 20+ years ago but I would way less productive. Does a carpenter deserve to get paid more because they used a steel hammer over a wooden mallet?

[Elegiac]

Productivity has gone up because of modern technology. For instance I design things in 3D on a computer, I could do it on paper, I have the skill set to do it and it's how it was done 20+ years ago but I would way less productive. Does a carpenter deserve to get paid more because they used a steel hammer over a wooden mallet?

Considering that the increase in productivity (regardless of its source) seems to still translate to higher earnings for business owners and shareholders?

Yes. Abso-fucking-lutely.

[Belize]

When the 40 hour work week was standardized the president at the time... I think it was Nixon? Maybe Reagan. It was an ironic one. Stated that they predict that due to the skyrocketing rates of productivity, that we would eventually hit a 30 or 25 hour work week with people still making the wages needed to live happy healthy lives.

Who could have forseen that instead we'd be working even harder, often longer, for far less.

Oh no, that I understand, I'm just confused by the artist's choice to waifu-ise a line graph.

[zenkai]

Considering that the increase in productivity (regardless of its source) seems to still translate to higher earnings for business owners and shareholders?

Yes. Abso-fucking-lutely.

I'm not against people getting paid more, just saying there's more to the picture. Despite the cartoon you posted it doesn't reflect how our standard of living has gone way up compared to our grandparents or even our parents.

[kaid]

Considering that the increase in productivity (regardless of its source) seems to still translate to higher earnings for business owners and shareholders?

Yes. Abso-fucking-lutely.

Productivity used to be lock step in that more production = higher profits for companies and higher wages for workers but in the 70s it decoupled so now it just means higher profits for companie while wages no longer track with it at all. It is I think one reason production gains are slowing down. No real reason to produce more than you are if you never see any gain for it. Just produce the minimum required for the pay you are getting.

[Elegiac]

I'm not against people getting paid more, just saying there's more to the picture.

Not really.

At the end of the day it still translates to people producing more and getting paid less while their employers reap the entirety of the benefits of the increased productivity.

Despite the cartoon you posted it doesn't reflect how our standard of living has gone way up compared to our grandparents or even our parents.

You sure about that?

[Elegiac]

Trust it to an American to call someone's standard of living 'decent' when they die from being unable to afford insulin but, hey, at least they own a smartphone.

[zenkai]

Not really.

At the end of the day it still translates to people producing more and getting paid less while their employers reap the entirety of the benefits of the increased productivity.



You sure about that?

[IMG]https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-94p5dZDLfMk/XD0GT2Ngh0I/AAAAAAAAJAc/B5qSTo2N-ygHfuroNAt9sc58tgcw2moFQCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2Bshot%2B2019-01-14%2Bat%2B4.59.19%2BPM.png[/]

Not really? You don't think we have more disposable income than ever?wow...

[kaid]

I'm not against people getting paid more, just saying there's more to the picture. Despite the cartoon you posted it doesn't reflect how our standard of living has gone way up compared to our grandparents or even our parents.

A lot of the "standard of living" has basically been in small inexpensive gadgets. Also a lot of peoples "standard of living" is things they don't own. It is what drive me up a wall when people talk about things like how many appliances and fridges people own when a huge chunk of the country does not own those things they rent an apartment that comes with those things. But while it is a benefit they are basically in effect paying high rental fees for the use of those items. Back in my grandfathers day it was not hard for an unskilled laborer to own a house and with a single income from a single job maintain a house and a family. These days both parents generally work to supply the buying power one wage earner used to provide.

[zenkai]

And as it has the cost of living has continued to rise. Meanwhile, we work harder for less money. Brilliant.

I work less harder and make more money than when I first started my career thanks to modern advancements. But then again, I'm smart.

- - - Updated - - -

A lot of the "standard of living" has basically been in small inexpensive gadgets. Also a lot of peoples "standard of living" is things they don't own. It is what drive me up a wall when people talk about things like how many appliances and fridges people own when a huge chunk of the country does not own those things they rent an apartment that comes with those things. But while it is a benefit they are basically in effect paying high rental fees for the use of those items. Back in my grandfathers day it was not hard for an unskilled laborer to own a house and with a single income from a single job maintain a house and a family. These days both parents generally work to supply the buying power one wage earner used to provide.

Yeah remember when as kids we had to make cloths from potato sacks, didn't throw away cloths that was torn we patched them, didn't have AC? Oh wait that was my grandparents.

[Elegiac]

Not really? You don't think we have more disposable income than ever?wow...

I don't, considering that we factually do not.

Consumer goods are for the most part more affordable for what you get, but more and more of people's income is being eaten up by healthcare, education, housing, and transportation (this chart doesn't refer to gasoline and car insurance prices over the same period).

Can argue with me but you can't argue with math.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah remember when as kids we had to make cloths from potato sacks, didn't throw away cloths that was torn we patched them, didn't have AC? Oh wait that was my grandparents.

Cool. Your grandparents also had to pay practically nothing for school or for housing by comparison to people in the modern period.

[zenkai]

I don't, considering that we factually do not.

Consumer goods are for the most part more affordable for what you get, but more and more of people's income is being eaten up by healthcare, education, housing, and transportation (this chart doesn't refer to gasoline and car insurance prices over the same period).

Can argue with me but you can't argue with math.

- - - Updated - - -



Cool. Your grandparents also had to pay practically nothing for school or for housing by comparison to people in the modern period.

I am arguing with math, because of advance in technology, things have gotten CHEAPER

[Breccia]

So before I get into this next one, an introduction is needed:

After we win, I’m going to be coming back to Michigan a lot. I’m going to be coming back every time we open a new factory or a new automobile plant. And we will do it, we will do a lot of expansion. We’re going to do a lot of expansion, I know exactly what to do folks. We’re not going to lose your jobs anymore.

We will bring back your automobile production, and we will bring back your industry. Wait until you see what we do for Michigan.

-- Donald Trump, 2016

We good? Okay, moving on.

The GM strike could cost Trump Michigan.

GM is losing $25 million a day. As I posted recently, they've already started furloughs. Meanwhile the striking workers, having gone past 14 days, are 100% missing a paycheck (the UAW will pay them a $250 weekly strike benefit, which is a hell of a lot better than nothing, but not exactly "make it rain" money, also they have their insurance back thank goodness).

Car manufacturing is 8% of Michigan's GDP and 1% of the nation's GDP. GM's stalling will hurt the nation (GDP predictions of 2.1% surely take this into account) and definitely will hurt the state.

Trump won Michigan by the narrowest margin in the state's history: roughly eleven thousand people. There are 46,000 GM strikers who are about to stop buying things other than food and utility bills, because they can't afford to. At time of writing, the only thing I can find about Trump's auto industry bailout --

"He has one planned?"

No no, that's the point. I can't find such. Maybe we don't need it yet, it's "only" GM after all, but just to be fair, I did look. All I found were his criticisms of Obama (so, credit where it's due, at least with auto manufacturers he wasn't being a hypocrite, just lying about jobs) and this article from August 2016, before the quote above from a Nov 2016 rally:

On Monday, Trump never mentioned the bailout during his address at the Detroit Economic Club, but instead highlighted that fact that there are fewer auto workers in Michigan today than their were prior to President Bill Clinton's polarizing North American Free Trade Act (NAFTA).

"Detroit is still waiting for Hillary Clinton's apology. She has been a disaster. Obama has been a disaster," he said, without going into detail about how. Trump also raised the specter of the president's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and linked it to Clinton, even though the Democrat says she does not support it.

"Hillary Clinton's Trans-Pacific Partnership will be an even bigger disaster for the auto industry, believe me, even bigger and even worse than NAFTA," Trump said Monday. "Just imagine how many more automobile jobs will be lost if the TPP is actually approved. It will be catastrophic. That is why I have announced we will withdraw from the deal before that can ever ever ever happen."

Well, we didn't get into TPP, and...um...crisis averted? US auto sales are down and are forecast to continue dropping.

“The first half of the year was marked by volatility,” said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Cox Automotive, in a June 26 presentation. “The second half will be worse.”

Risks in the second half include trade wars and tariff talks, UAW negotiations for contracts that expire Sept. 14, a big debate over fuel-economy standards, question marks about the U.S. economy, Brexit, and a slowdown in the China economy, Smoke said.

For the first half of 2019, Cox Automotive said new-vehicle sales would be down an estimated 2.2%, to about 8.4 million cars and trucks combined. The second half is expected to be down about 3.4% from a year ago, to 8.4 million, Cox said.

That would make for a projected total of 16.8 million cars and trucks combined for all of 2019, down from about 17.3 million in 2018. For 2020, Cox Automotive predicted U.S. auto sales would decline again, to 16.5 million.

Bolded for relevance. The above article was from June.

Trump's promise to Michigan has been nearly completely unfulfilled. FiveThirtyEight's list of Michigan-specific polls show Trump, at best, about even with the Democratic candidates, all of them. The most recent one, which I 100% admit is a drastic outlier, shows Biden leading by nineteen percent.

After we win, I’m going to be coming back to Michigan a lot. I’m going to be coming back every time we open a new factory or a new automobile plant. And we will do it, we will do a lot of expansion. We’re going to do a lot of expansion, I know exactly what to do folks. We’re not going to lose your jobs anymore.

We will bring back your automobile production, and we will bring back your industry. Wait until you see what we do for Michigan.

Trump promised Michigan a massive erection...but he didn't have any Cox.

[ati87]

Productivity has gone up because of modern technology. For instance I design things in 3D on a computer, I could do it on paper, I have the skill set to do it and it's how it was done 20+ years ago but I would way less productive. Does a carpenter deserve to get paid more because they used a steel hammer over a wooden mallet?

Considering that the employer is making more money per employee than before the salary of the employee's should also increase.
The real scam is that any savings and earnings an company makes should go to the mangers and not the people doing the actual job.

[Elegiac]

I am arguing with math, because of advance in technology, things have gotten CHEAPER

Yes. Consumer products.

That lowering in price, however, has been entirely negated by the spike in the costs of things like education and healthcare, which you repeatedly ignore because it isn't convenient to your narrative that "everything is fine".

[kaid]

Not really? You don't think we have more disposable income than ever?wow...

When it requires both adults in a family to earn full time wages to cover the cost of housing/food/medical bills when in the past it required one person to do so then no. There are more small nick nacks to buy now that are fairly powerful tools but overall the main costs of living have shot up enormously. What generally is happening is people are going into an amazing amount of debt to appear like they have disposable income.

- - - Updated - - -

I am arguing with math, because of advance in technology, things have gotten CHEAPER

You can't eat an iphone. Your computer can't watch your kid while you work. You can't use a DVR as an apartment your roku can't give you an MRI. Luxury goods are cheaper but necessities are WAY more expensive now than they once were.