Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Belize]

Honestly a plumber.

Go ask a plumber next time you need a colonoscopy instead of a qualified doctor, and let us know how it turns out.

Because they're both just dealing with pipes really.

[Breccia]

GDP forecasts are...not great.

Goldman Sachs has a somber message indeed. They are now predicting 0% in Q1, and a whopping -5% in Q2. They are, however, predicting +3% in Q3 and 4% in Q4 as life returns towards normal. Overall for the year, 0.4%.

Kiplinger's uses the term "recession". They say 0.7% for the year, and have good things to say about lower imports and the housing market (because loans are cheap).

The Atlanta Fed is staying optimistic, returning to 3.1% for...some reason, I don't know, they disagree sharply with literally everyone else, like the NYFed and their recently-downgraded 1-2% ranges.

[TexasRules]

How can that dastardly Trump not remove from government the person who called this the "Kung Flu"? Weijia Jiang should name this person, not let them keep serving in the administration.

[Zaydin]

GDP forecasts are...not great.

Goldman Sachs has a somber message indeed. They are now predicting 0% in Q1, and a whopping -5% in Q2. They are, however, predicting +3% in Q3 and 4% in Q4 as life returns towards normal. Overall for the year, 0.4%.

Kiplinger's uses the term "recession". They say 0.7% for the year, and have good things to say about lower imports and the housing market (because loans are cheap).

The Atlanta Fed is staying optimistic, returning to 3.1% for...some reason, I don't know, they disagree sharply with literally everyone else, like the NYFed and their recently-downgraded 1-2% ranges.

I think some of the reasoning behind some groups staying optimistic is not wanting to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Stock market is kind of infamous for creating them.

[Omega10]

I think some of the reasoning behind some groups staying optimistic is not wanting to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Stock market is kind of infamous for creating them.

My take on it is that 0 for Q1 and -5 for Q2 are probably right, but the Q3 and Q4 numbers are inflated. Which pretty much meshes with your theory. I just hope that the -14% for Q2 prediction that was made is quite a bit off.

[Skroe]

Honestly a plumber.

And that's why in the post-Coronavirus crisis world, we need to move as much of the engineering and administration of government out of the reach of people like you.

The US doesn't have a deep state. You've made a very compelling argument to build one.

[zealo]

Honestly a plumber.

There's nothing wrong with people who are blue collar workers such as plumbers, they too have their own essential role in society, but frankly, that sort of education isn't good enough for things as important as the political executive of a nation.

[Acidbaron]

Epidemics are a highly complicated crisis, as you're dealing with people, health issues, logistics, philosophical questions as to should we save based on age or years left, economic collapses.

How bad fires and floods are they are not in the same league, and so far i know the current US administration failed horribly at both such things. This will be the same, sadly.
Since if i am reading right the team put in charge of the middle east peace "project" are now in charge of this.

If the national guard needs to be deployed to bring order and peace to stores, as there will be panic and people will get gradually worse as this goes on. Knowing this might make the Trump admin look bad, will he do it? I am putting my money on no he won't. Also that scenario is not unlikely, security guards are already being deployed here for grocery stores because people are horrible in times of crisis.

[Deja Thoris]

GDP forecasts are...not great.

Goldman Sachs has a somber message indeed. They are now predicting 0% in Q1, and a whopping -5% in Q2. They are, however, predicting +3% in Q3 and 4% in Q4 as life returns towards normal. Overall for the year, 0.4%.

Kiplinger's uses the term "recession". They say 0.7% for the year, and have good things to say about lower imports and the housing market (because loans are cheap).

The Atlanta Fed is staying optimistic, returning to 3.1% for...some reason, I don't know, they disagree sharply with literally everyone else, like the NYFed and their recently-downgraded 1-2% ranges.

Who forecasts 3% after -5% the previous quarter?

Supply chains will take a while to spin up again, and importantly, people won't just go on a huge bender and blow their cash. The 'trauma' of what they've just gone through will make them more conservative in the short term. Even if it doesn't, they can't all go on vacation travelling by airlines in Q3 can they?
The world is grinding to a halt. People better tighten their belts for a little longer.

[Paranoid Android]

And that's why in the post-Coronavirus crisis world, we need to move as much of the engineering and administration of government out of the reach of people like you.

The US doesn't have a deep state. You've made a very compelling argument to build one.

Yeah, people like Lockedout want less qualified people and incompetent in government such as Trump. Just like the Tea Baggers, they want people who make government grind to a halt, a tough thing to do, so they can bitch more about the government. If simply stated "why would you every want an idiot or a person who wants to ruin your business, organization, etc" in a leadership position.

[Breccia]

Who forecasts 3% after -5% the previous quarter?

People who expect a hard line "the crisis is over" and expect everyone to rush back to the shopping malls and spend money.

And the forecast assumed strong actions by the federal government.

Honestly, I think it's fairly damning that, even with a surge of spending, Trump's barely going to see the 3% he promised.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

Good to see Trump and Republicans coming around on socialism. It isn't bad when well regulated and monitored by a system of checks and balances. Sure, all it took was total political suicide for the entire party being the only other option for them to realize it.. but hey.. not everyone figures things out before the absolute last second. So good for them. I do look forward to how it will be spinned though.

Just remember whenever the "better system" falls apart (every 10 to 15 years because of a virus this time but usually just greed) socialism is always there to SAVE it.

[Benggaul]

Big oof. If you thought Trump sounded incoherent, rambling and confused before, you ain't heard nuttin' yet!

https://twitter.com/kenolin1/status/...338823172?s=20

[Breccia]

This article starts with what I've been saying, namely, Trump using the term "Chinese Virus" is hurting US-China relationships. I conjectured this would hurt Phase One.

The article then continues with a few points I hadn't thought of.

1) Both countries are blaming each other -- remember, China officially suggested the US military brought the virus -- because both countries screwed up dealing with the virus, and want someone to blame besides themselves. China has a much more solid propaganda network and doesn't really have elections, giving them the edge.

2) China has the means, motive, and opportunity to use the fallout to their advantage.

Experts say there are broader implications for the U.S.: The nation is not assuming the role as a global leader at a time of need. Instead, it is scrambling to address the severe shortage of test kits and other equipment, despite the virus being on its radar for months.

“There is a bigger geopolitics effect because of the Trump team's utter failure to implement obvious and needed actions that every other nation did. It just undermined American power and reputation in a way never before experienced,” Peter Singer, a senior fellow at New America, told The Hill in an interview.

“While we are about to display a basic inability to do the most simple things to save the lives of our citizens, China is now already distributing needed foreign aid and medical equipment to other nations [that are] suffering. China is doing what the U.S. used to do and now isn't even able to do for itself. This won't be forgotten on the international stage,” added Singer.

“Some Europeans are actually now concerned about the United States leadership,” echoed Cheng.

Despite the initial cover-up, experts say the international community may view China more favorably since it has offered aid to Western allies facing high transmission rates, like Italy and Spain as well as other countries like Serbia. In other words, stepping in to fill the void now may give China a competitive edge later, after the crisis passes.

Bear in mind: under Trump's leadership, "the US first nobody else second" was already a work in progress. When a situation like this unfolds when we all need to be in this together, Trump's words and actions could have significant negative consequences. I mean, even more than they already have.

The only thing worse than being sick, is being sick and alone.

[JohnBrown1917]

This article starts with what I've been saying, namely, Trump using the term "Chinese Virus" is hurting US-China relationships. I conjectured this would hurt Phase One.

No surprise, Trump taking over racist terms started by his racist fans.


Its like thee far right parties of Europe pretending that 'cultural Marxism' was not a term though up by nazis.

[Breccia]

In a trend I'm sure we're going to see more of, the 273k jobs added in February were immediately eaten by the 281k jobless filings last week.

And that's the starting point.

While economists at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute expect the economy to lose 3 million jobs by this summer, they point out that there is often a lag between when people are laid off and when they apply for benefits.

While the hope is that money and jobs come back quickly, 3 months without work for millions of people won't be paid by two $1,000 checks. And while people keep mentioning it, I haven't actually seen any $1,000/month plans before Congress.

[arandomuser]

I made a post earlier and was genuinely suprised trump didnt play the xenophobia card alot earlier

but now that i guess he realized its not a perfect situation going away in 2 weeks, and a new trade wont really stop the economic downturn ( i still think he was only playing nice at the begining for a trade deal :IE said tweet https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/...923009?lang=en "China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency,It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!") his tone vs now " its all chinas fault"
and the worst part is its highly effective for his base and the average uninformed voter.

- - - Updated - - -

I wanna post the tweet again in a different format so people can understand what the president was saying in JANUARY now that hes tilting to blaming the disease on the chinese goverments response

[Breccia]

I made a post earlier and was genuinely suprised trump didnt play the xenophobia card alot earlier

Trump is claiming it isn't racist. Wanna see the video?

It sounds like Trump is following the logic Chef set out in the South Park Dodgeball episode.

You see, it's NOT okay to make fun of an American because they're black or brown or whatever, but it IS okay to make fun of foreigners because they're from another country.

[Acidbaron]

Watching the address, even during an epidemic he cannot stop being a narcissist... Thanks for the laugh though needed it while feeling crap.

[PhaelixWW]

FFS... "We were very prepared. The only thing we weren't prepared for was... the media." -Trump