Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

Isn’t DJTJ the next guy up the ladder in the Trump Org from their indicted CFO?

It's not a ladder. Ladders have only one narrow path up and down. This is stadium seating. Weaselberg is the front gate, then the Trumps are the next level up.

If Jr is next, so are Eric and Ivanka.

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"The indictment is not likely to change the status of the Trump’s Organization’s roughly $330 million debt to Deutsche Bank, Mr. Trump’s primary lender."

Directly, probably. But
1) Trump has a history of making lenders extend -- possibly because he also has a history of going bankrupt and lenders want first crack. Deutsche Bank, and everyone else I assume, is no longer interested in giving extensions. The big DB loan is due in 2024. By then, Trump could be in real trouble. Further, in 2024 Trump is likely campaigning either for himself (not likely) or for other people. His finances will be watched with massive oversight this time. He can't illegally use campaign contributions to pay Deutsche Bank. This is Trump's last company left, he doesn't want to declare bankruptcy -- but he may be running out of options. If Deutche Bank extends, they might be forfeiting any chance of getting anything at all, by putting themselves further back in line. They don't want that. They want their money.
2) Deutsche Bank was Trump's last resort for loans after going bankrupt six times. I would be surprised if there weren't extra lines fo fine print, extra protection and insurance for Deutsche Bank, which could easily include lines like "by the way, if you commit a felony with our money, we get it back immediately before you have to give it to the cops".

This is still early on, but Deutsche Bank (and who knows who else) should be circling like vultures right now.

[beanman12345]

It's not a ladder. Ladders have only one narrow path up and down. This is stadium seating. Weaselberg is the front gate, then the Trumps are the next level up.

If Jr is next, so are Eric and Ivanka.

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Directly, probably. But
1) Trump has a history of making lenders extend -- possibly because he also has a history of going bankrupt and lenders want first crack. Deutsche Bank, and everyone else I assume, is no longer interested in giving extensions. The big DB loan is due in 2024. By then, Trump could be in real trouble. Further, in 2024 Trump is likely campaigning either for himself (not likely) or for other people. His finances will be watched with massive oversight this time. He can't illegally use campaign contributions to pay Deutsche Bank. This is Trump's last company left, he doesn't want to declare bankruptcy -- but he may be running out of options. If Deutche Bank extends, they might be forfeiting any chance of getting anything at all, by putting themselves further back in line. They don't want that. They want their money.
2) Deutsche Bank was Trump's last resort for loans after going bankrupt six times. I would be surprised if there weren't extra lines fo fine print, extra protection and insurance for Deutsche Bank, which could easily include lines like "by the way, if you commit a felony with our money, we get it back immediately before you have to give it to the cops".

This is still early on, but Deutsche Bank (and who knows who else) should be circling like vultures right now.

Maybe GETTR means Give Everything To TRump, because he's gonna need his cult to do so if he wants to continue.

[postman1782]

Maybe GETTR means Give Everything To TRump, because he's gonna need his cult to do so if he wants to continue.

And they have already started banning people. They banned Baked Alaska already, but he deserves to be in fucking prison for his role in the failed coup, especially since that fucker was supposed to be quarantined with Covid.

[Elegiac]

It'll take longer than that, I think.

The monetary judgement against the company, for these current charges, won't be enough to kill them, or enough to declare bankruptcy to try to avoid them (not that it would work). The bankruptcy comes when Deutsche Bank says they want their money now, NY says we'd like those back taxes from mis-valued buildings, or my personal favorite both. Neither of which are on the schedule yet.

There's reason to believe that schedule might have been accelerated, according to Kurt Eichenwald:

As someone who has written for decades about corporate crime, I was reading the Trump O/Weisselberg indictment going "Yeah okay..hm..yah..ok..Wait..HOLY SHIT!" The Trump Org is in deep, deep trouble. And not because of the criminal charges. Because of its bank loan covenants. In fact, if even the smallest bit of this case is true, I think the Trump Org could be dead. It's complicated but it primarily pertains to the 12th count of the indictment.

Taking this a step at a time: Like most real estate companies, the Trump Org is horribly illiquid. This means it cannot readily convert its assets into cash when needed. Worse, because of the incredible incompetence and business idiocy of Trump, cash on hand (and access rapid loans through what is known as the commercial paper market) is small. So, the company survives on loans against assets. Trump originally depended on bank loans, then jumped into high-yield (junk) bond market, which is why so many of his businesses went bankrupt. Junk bonds gave him lots of cash to spend, but he was too stupid to apply an analysis beyond "I'm great" to figure out how we was going to generate enough cash to pay interest on the bonds. He couldn't. With his dad, he tried laundering the money through Trump Castle to get past a requirement with his bank loans brought on by his junk debt, but got caught. Everything crashed down. So the bottom line... Trump knows how to borrow money, he doesn't know how to manage it.

Then came The Apprentice which gave him lots of cash. Of course, he spent it all, then used the assets he purchased as security to borrow from banks on the assumption that "I'm great" would fix any cash flow problems. He now has huge amounts of debt against assets that are plummeting in value because of January 6 and his toxic brand name. He *needed* the presidency to survive financially. I have always believed that is why he was so desperate to keep it, because if he was President he could hit up the Russians, Saudis, etc. to bail him out. Now with him toxic and a threat to the country, those nations know that any secret payments they make to him run a huge risk of being discovered.

Which brings us to today's charges. All bank loans come with a business come with "lending covenants" - these are basically a series of requirements, some of which include "you'll behave" in minor character. But *the most important part* of any loan covenant is the "books and records" portion. It is included in every covenant for a bank loan to a business. The terms are simple: you maintain truthful books and records, you attest to us that they are truthful, and we are allowed to review them at any time. There is no "You can lie *just a little bit* on your books and records" it's all or nothing, like pregnancy: you either are or you aren't. The books and records either are truthful, or they aren't. Which brings us to count 12.

Forget Weisselberg. That is every corporate defendant, every entity that could have a loan covenant in its name. Every Trump Org bank lender in the world, right now, is looking at this indictment, looking at their covenants, and calling the Trump Org demanding they turn over every relevant book and record pertaining to these issues. If they refuse... BOOM. Loans pulled. If they do and the banks don't like what they see... BOOM. Loans pulled. If the loans come due (which 100s of millions do next year) no way they get refinanced.

There may be something I'm missing here, but I do not see how the Trump Org survives this without some sort of corrupt deal overseas. But even that seems farfetched. Instead, it may be the biggest real estate corp bankruptcy in history.

TLDR: The indictment itself is sufficient grounds for lenders to cancel the loans on grounds of covenant breach and say "we want our money now".

[Breccia]

All bank loans come with a business come with "lending covenants"

That's an important, relevant piece of information from an experienced source.

So um...

what are your feelings on the largest real estate company bankruptcy in US history being declared within the next few months?

I'm not changing my answer yet buuuuuuut it could be closer to 1 year than 3.

[postman1782]

So, when they say it's a they're as full of shit as anyone in their right mind could have expected? Who'd have guessed a platform against "cancelling" people and censorship would in fact be OK with both those things.

Yep. https://www.rawstory.com/baked-alaska-trump/

Just hilarious, but then again, almost every single right wing hate app like this, Parler, Gab, FrankSpeech, or whatever, have all banned left leaning people because they don't like facts or other shit.

[Captain N]

Conservatives: We need to be able to speak our minds freely and without consequence like the First Amendment says. We don't need to be in an echo chamber!

Also Conservatives....builds echo chamber.

[gondrin]

Trump Jr. tried to help out his father in the only way he knows how, by making it worse and admitting Trump did something illegal.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...edgdhp&pc=U531

[Corvus]

Trump Jr. tried to help out his father in the only way he knows how, by making it worse and admitting Trump did something illegal.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...edgdhp&pc=U531

And this is why drugs are bad, kay.

[postman1782]

And this is why drugs are bad, kay.

Did you see that video that he put out a couple days ago? Guy was literally higher than fucking SpaceX.

[Breccia]

Things are continuing to look bad for Donald Trump.

Now Cohen is suing him for twenty million dollars. And it's not what you were thinking. Well maybe, but it 100% wasn't what I was thinking.

Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump's former personal lawyer, on Friday filed a claim seeking $20 million in damages from the federal government, alleging top figures in the Trump administration retaliated against him by sending him back to prison after he was furloughed last year.

The claim states that government officials committed "false arrest, false imprisonment, abuse of process, wrongful confinement, and retaliation" against Cohen for, in large part, making critical statements about the former president and writing a book about his time working for Trump.

"Mr. Cohen was the personal attorney to the President of the United States and if he could be thrown in jail for desiring to write a critical book of the President one’s imagination need not go far before realizing that such unacceptable and constitutionally violative conduct could be directed at any of us," his attorney, Jeffrey Levine, said in a statement. "That is not hyperbole and not acceptable."

Levine also said that Cohen plans to file a lawsuit related to violations of his First Amendment rights, and it will name former Attorney General Bill Barr and the head of the Bureau of Prisons, Michael Carvajal.

"Wait, I missed something. I thought Cohen was in jail for paying off Trump's whore."

It's possible we covered this at the time, I honestly don't remember. Here's a summary:

Cohen was initially set to be released from federal lockup in Otisville, New York, in November 2021. He had served just over a year of his sentence when he was released early. But Cohen was sent back to prison in July 2020 after refusing to sign a home confinement agreement barring him from publishing a book or speaking to the media.

Cohen argued in his claim that his trip to meet probation officials at the federal courthouse in Manhattan that day in July was a trap. Law enforcement officials previously said Cohen, who had been released from prison because of coronavirus concerns, refused to sign the agreement prohibiting him from interacting with the media or writing a book.

Cohen was presented eight conditions required for home confinement and became angered about the media gag rule, his former attorney and adviser Lanny Davis said at the time. Davis said Cohen was reluctant to sign because he had already completed his book while in prison.

However, Cohen was later released in mid-July of last year after a federal judge ordered him freed, agreeing with Cohen's attorneys that he was wrongly sent back to prison after making public statements critical of Trump.

So Cohen clearly has some legal standing.

A $20 million lawsuit to Trump's already mounting legal and fiscal worries is like that 25th raid member auto-attacking while everyone else kills the boss. But it's when people go back and check the logs that they find interesting things about their rotation, isn't it? If Cohen's case proceeds, I think he can subpoena documents and communication between Trump and the people who threw Cohen in jail for saying mean things about Trump.

You can't throw a journalist in jail for criticizing the government. Cohen's no journalist, but he did write a book and the Constitution didn't have an exception clause. We already know Trump tried to have journalists snooped, there's no telling what a discovery path will turn up.

It's small Cheetos in context, and will probably get lost in the shuffle. But Cohen has already won a case on this topic before, and "country's leader throws critic in jail" is exactly the sort of thing Putin would do. Trump would know, he worked for Putin.

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This article is a side-by-side taste test of this last week for President Biden and Individual One Trump. As such, it's fucking TheHllarious.

I've already covered most of the Trump side, but apparently he did a NYTimes interview and I missed it. Not much to see though -- he basically shrilled WITCH HUNT then ate a Big Mac and dollar menu fries.

The side-by-side article points out that Trump went to the border, Biden's biggest weak spot in his polling numbers, to try to racist dog whistle with other Party of Trump members, while his CFO was arrested, the economy showed strong recovery, and his namesake son ratted him out directly to the public, possibly while high.

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The death threats have escalated.

Trump supporters shot up an AL Dem's house, which was fortunately empty at the time.

"Hey wait, this article says there's no known motive yet."

Yeah after the murderous insurrection that the Party of Trump is defending to this day, I'm going to assume people trying to murder Democrats are Party of Trump members until evidence shows otherwise. I have enough evidence in public, between threats and actions, to say that and not feel bad when I'm wrong.

[PhaelixWW]

Now Cohen is suing him for twenty million dollars. And it's not what you were thinking. Well maybe, but it 100% wasn't what I was thinking.

A $20 million lawsuit to Trump's already mounting legal and fiscal worries is like that 25th raid member auto-attacking while everyone else kills the boss.

But Cohen is suing the federal government, not Trump.

[Aphelios]

Oh man what happened? All the trustfunder's jimmies are rustled!

[Breccia]

But Cohen is suing the federal government, not Trump.

Hmm. Well we've seen some lawsuits (elections) dismissed on the grounds of "Trump's not in charge anymore". Hopefully that happens here, too.

[Ripster42]

Hmm. Well we've seen some lawsuits (elections) dismissed on the grounds of "Trump's not in charge anymore". Hopefully that happens here, too.

The tort didn't dissolve when trump left. The threat of him exercising power did.

[Breccia]

DoJ gonna need to hire a Trump division.

Regardless of the history or legality, I despise that the US under Biden will have to defend the US under Trump.

[cubby]

Also, hey @cubby we've known Trump hides his taxes even to the point of locking them in an IRS vault he had constructed. Is this what he was hiding? Or is it something much bigger, such as "Trump is poor"?

It's more - it's the money he owes and is therefore beholden to that will show his already-known vulnerabilities. Especially how much he owes to what is essentially Russian oligarchs.

Plus - Trump is poor. In so, so many ways.

[beanman12345]

The "it is what it is" axios reaction meme guy, I forgot his name, was on PBS news. He said his sources around Trump said the one thing that is going to push Trump to run in 2024, is the fact that he hates every time he turns on the tv the news isn't wall to wall coverage of him. The host, who was part of the press corps during trumps reign, tried to be objective in the reaction, but damn it's so fkn obvious the narcissist desperately misses the attention he once got. Wouldn't surprise me if it pisses him off that WaPo stopped the count Jan 20th at noon at 30,500 something lies either. "why is nobody counting the number of my lies anymore damnit!!!"

[Gorsameth]

Regardless of the history or legality, I despise that the US under Biden will have to defend the US under Trump.

Technically they don't have to defend it, they can simply admit guilt and pay damages.

[Corvus]

With more and more troubles piling up, who in the family is going to break first and run off to make a deal?

I doubt Trump would have any qualms about throwing his own kids under the bus, though the political attack ads would just write themselves if he did that.

My money would be on Ivanka. She still has political ambitions, her brain isn't as addled by drugs but most importantly she has a young family she'd want to protect. And that might be the biggest factor.