Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[PhaelixWW]

This week:

Thursday's report:

81,033 new cases; about 5k fewer than last Thursday.

Last week:

Thursday's report:

78,460 new cases; about 10k fewer than last Thursday.

I just want to highlight, again, the fact that since you're comparing the day-of total with the backfilled total from the previous week, what you're labeling as 5k fewer cases than last Thursday is actually a 2.5k increase over last Thursday.

I know, I know, you're just doing it the same way you've always done it, but it bears showing that that method carries with it an artificial depression of the rate change. And in this case, it's obscuring the fact that we've most likely passed the inflection point into the winter surge.

[Breccia]

inflection point

Well..



It's going to be hard to refute that when cases appear to have held roughly steady for almost 2 weeks.

By the way, you'll notice I posted the entire map because (a) I'm a vindictive motherfucker who (b) needs to make a point: cases/day, right now, are higher than almost the entire length of 2020. Almost exactly one year ago to the day they were the same -- and on a massive upswing leading to the nation's worst peak. 2020 was bad, with a massive number of restrictions, lockdowns, and shutdowns across the country because things were that bad. Remember not having chicken? Remember not having toilet paper? Nov 5-ish wasn't the start of the nation's worst peak, we were already climbing and can't blame Thanksgiving. I personally believe we can blame two things at that time: indoor conditions, and people being careless.

At least the vaccine (and boosters!) will keep the sick->dead ratio lower. The deaths peak we're coming down from was the third worst, while the cases is the second worst. People are more likely to survive getting sick now, than they were a year ago/18 months ago. But part of this is still being smart about this. I get the feeling I'm talking to the wrong half of the country because the correct half either refuses to admit they need to hear science and facts, or they're already dead, but...this isn't over, don't be stupid.

- - - Updated - - -

Grand jury assembled in Trump case--

"Oh my God. You already posted that. We get it."

This is a second one. Grand juries have a time limit, and the first one's time ran out. That's right, there's so much evidence against Trump, the screen saver went on.

[Benggaul]

I just want to highlight, again, the fact that since you're comparing the day-of total with the backfilled total from the previous week, what you're labeling as 5k fewer cases than last Thursday is actually a 2.5k increase over last Thursday.

Well, actually since the backfill eventually brought last Thursday's total to over 86k as opposed to the 78k I initially posted then it's not an increase this week--yet. We won't really know if it's an increase until the backfilled totals for this Thursday are in, so if you want to say I can't claim it's a decrease, you can't really claim it's an increase of any specific amount either.

And, again, if you're interested in filling in those gaps by all means be my guest. However, anyone who's been paying attention to my dailies has seen for a while now that the decrease in cases has fallen off dramatically so it's not that hard to figure out what's happening (and I've been pointing it out periodically in my posts anyway). I'm back to work full time now while still recovering from a shattered femur, so I'm not really up to spending the extra time to make up for Florida's (and other states, to be fair) backfills. Also, because I've been doing it the same way for around a year and a half now it's easier to pick up on patterns. Methodological consistency helps mitigate the problem you highlight. At worst the indications are off a week, but still provide a decent picture overall.

[Rasulis]

California keeps bouncing around a bit as their GOP counties counteract the good work done by the smarter counties (Modoc county voted something like 70% for Trump and is currently experiencing over 200 cases per 100k pop) but it's overall been flat since the beginning of October with a few spikes here or there.

I suspect that in parts of California, Covid has reached endemic stage. Marin cases went up, but hospitalization went down to zero. San Francisco cases went up, hospitalization went down below 40. Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego cases went up, but hospitalization went down or stayed flat.

[Edge-]

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/l...s-say/2870695/

The teenage son of Virginia Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin twice tried to cast a ballot on Election Day even though he is not yet eligible to vote, election officials confirm to News4. He was unsuccessful in his attempt to vote.

News4 is not naming Youngkin's son because he is a minor and has not been charged with a crime.

Fairfax County election officials said the teen went to the Hickory precinct polling place at Great Falls Library. The location is not the polling place assigned to his home address.

Election workers were able to determine he was not eligible to vote and didn't allow him to cast a ballot. The Fairfax County Office of Elections said it is investigating the incident.

Now I'm not gonna go after the kid for being a dumb teen, shit happens. But sure is weird how we keep seeing attempted voter fraud in favor of Republicans. Sure is weird.

Also weird that the guy running for governor apparently didn't bother to teach his son about the importance of election integrity and following the rule of law. Which means not voting until you are legally eligible at the age of 18 after registering with the state.

[Yuujin]

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/l...s-say/2870695/




Now I'm not gonna go after the kid for being a dumb teen, shit happens. But sure is weird how we keep seeing attempted voter fraud in favor of Republicans. Sure is weird.

Also weird that the guy running for governor apparently didn't bother to teach his son about the importance of election integrity and following the rule of law. Which means not voting until you are legally eligible at the age of 18 after registering with the state.

The tactic is always the same. Blame the other side for the things you are doing to muddy the water. The Trump campaign claimed corruption against the Dems since before he was elected president. He claimed the the Hiliary Foundation was corrupt, his own chairty got shut down. They claimed the Clintons were working with the Ukrainian government, we got him on a call asking for a favor, he claimed the election was stolen, there are documents from his lawyers showing his own administration was trying to steal the election, they claim to be against CRT being taught in school because it's liberal agenda, and now they are trying to take over school boards to teach "American Exceptionalism."

If you want to know how the Republicans plan to upset Democracy in America, all you have to do is see what they are accusing the other side of doing.

[Fugus]

The tactic is always the same. Blame the other side for the things you are doing to muddy the water. The Trump campaign claimed corruption against the Dems since before he was elected president. He claimed the the Hiliary Foundation was corrupt, his own chairty got shut down. They claimed the Clintons were working with the Ukrainian government, we got him on a call asking for a favor, he claimed the election was stolen, there are documents from his lawyers showing his own administration was trying to steal the election, they claim to be against CRT being taught in school because it's liberal agenda, and now they are trying to take over school boards to teach "American Exceptionalism."

If you want to know how the Republicans plan to upset Democracy in America, all you have to do is see what they are accusing the other side of doing.

Don't forget the double standards on enforcement to go with it. Have to remember the one woman who voted legitimately thinking she could legally vote while on parole or probation or something like that and got 5 years for it as compared to the multiple trumper troopers who knowingly and intentionally voted illegally whom I haven't seen a single one face any real consequences by comparison.

Or who they treat a BLM peaceful protest versus how they handle a Yall Queda terrorist attack on the capital building. That's not even beginning to get how they want to give one set of voters special treatment while shutting out other legal voters out of the process entirely.

[Benggaul]

I suspect that in parts of California, Covid has reached endemic stage. Marin cases went up, but hospitalization went down to zero. San Francisco cases went up, hospitalization went down below 40. Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego cases went up, but hospitalization went down or stayed flat.

Yeah, from what little I've been able to access from here it looks like that's the case (cases up; hospitalizations down). I'm hoping that will be the case for most of the nation when the next wave arrives to keep deaths to a minimum, but my optimism's taken a real hit the past few years.

[Breccia]

Another Trump cultist begs for a contempt charge. Clark, one of Trump's DoJ, apparently gave a statement but then refused to answer questions. That's doesn't count as appearing.

[Edge-]

https://www.stripes.com/veterans/202...UtU8f7dis3Dqmg

The Department of Veterans Affairs acknowledged in a letter Thursday that three members of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort had “unusually pervasive access” to VA officials during his administration.

The three men, Marvel Entertainment Chairman Ike Perlmutter, lawyer Marc Sherman and Bruce Moskowitz, a Palm Beach doctor, “sought to exert influence” over government initiatives, the VA conceded. None of the men have experience in the U.S. military or government.

The letter was signed by VA Deputy General Counsel Michael Hogan. It was sent as part of a legal case between the VA and VoteVets, a liberal-leaning advocacy group. VoteVets filed a lawsuit in 2018 that claimed the “Mar-a-Lago Three” broke the law by not adhering to the Federal Advisory Committee Act, an open government law that requires transparency of outside advisory groups.

...

“The Mar-a-Lago council was a poster child for the kind of pervasive corruption throughout the Trump administration, and had we not stepped in, the undue influence of Donald Trump’s clubhouse friends could have hurt our veterans in a lot of ways,” Jon Soltz, VoteVets chairman, said in a statement Friday. “We also have sent the message that no future administration should try this again. Let qualified people, who understand the needs of our veterans, run the VA.”

So this is pretty fuckin retarded, though I imagine it doesn't break any laws. But holy shit retarded.

But if you want a fun time, try to find pictures of Ike Perlmutter on the internet. Before Trump's term there were maybe 2-3, largely very old pictures. Now? There are still shockingly few, maybe a dozen or so tops, mostly in the background with Trump.

He's a really weird dude.

[Breccia]

Sometimes I go and look myself — when stuff comes up. This time I didn't have the time to do it.

It's not my job, in a fast-moving case, to go out and investigate every piece of evidence that was given to me. Otherwise, you're never going to write a story. You'll never come to a conclusion

-- Giuliani, under oath, admitting he did not check his sources before filing their statements under oath, as reported by CNN

"Oh CNN, they're so fake, they're so biased, they--"

They have tapes.

"..oh."

Yeah, the defamation lawsuit is pressing forward. Giuliani admitting under oath he repeated something as if it was fact when it was just Some Guy on Twitter and he was repeating it.

[Gorsameth]

I ask the 'legal experts' of MMO-C.
"sorry I didn't have time to do my homework". Does this ever actually fly in a court of law?

Sure he might not have time for everything himself but that is why big cases tend to have big teams working on them. So that someone does have time to check every piece of evidence as actually being reasonably correct.

[Breccia]

Does this ever actually fly in a court of law?

Yes. It's called Inadequate Representation.

[Poopymonster]

Yes. It's called Inadequate Representation.

Rudy gonna represent himself and then claim he had a bad lawyer?
Kinda like killing your parents and begging for mercy because you're an orphan?

[Breccia]

Rudy gonna represent himself and then claim he had a bad lawyer?

Eh, that response was a little flippant.

You know what isn't? Reckless Disregard.

You know how, if you plan ahead to track someone to their house and beat them to death with a baseball bat with nails in it, that's premeditated murder, but if you see someone on the side of the road and suddenly pull over and beat them to death with a baseball bat with nails in it, that's manslaughter? Well turns out defamation has that.

Actual Malice Standard

In The New York Times Co. v. Sullivan, 376 U.S. 254 (1964), the Supreme Court held that for a publicly-known figure to succeed on a defamation claims, the public-figure plaintiff must show that the false, defaming statements was said with "actual malice." The Sullivan court stated that"actual malice" means that the defendant said the defamatory statement "with knowledge that it was false or with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not." The Sullivan court also held that when the standard is actual malice, the plaintiff must prove actual malice by "clear and convincing" evidence, rather than the usual burden of proof in a civil case, which is the preponderance of the evidence standard. On this point, the precise language the Sullivan court uses is that the plaintiff must show "the convincing clarity which the constitutional standard demands."

Giuliani didn't need to know what he was saying was false. He's also lie-able if he just flat-out doesn't care if it's true or not, and says it as if it was true without finding out if it was true even though it's important, for example, if he's suing a state to overthrow democracy.

And Giuliani admitted such on tape.

Just making it clear how damning this is.

Actually maybe he will claim he had a bad lawyer. It's not like he has a legit defense.

[Ursus]

Now I'm not gonna go after the kid for being a dumb teen, shit happens.

I will go after him, because apparently he tried this twice in a span of 30 minutes: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...ginia-n1283376

Election workers turned the teen away after they determined he was ineligible to vote, Fairfax County election officials said. He returned 30 minutes later and requested another ballot before being turned away again, News4 reported.

The first time was probably a fraud attempt, since as the son of a candidate for governor, he almost certainly knew he had to be 18 to vote. However, there's a small chance he really was just a dumbass teen who didn't know the law.

The second attempt however, after it had already been clearly explained to him he was not old enough to vote, there is absolutely no way to write that off as anything other than an attempt at voter fraud. But of course he won't face any consequences for it and you won't hear a peep from Fox News about this, despite how concerned they are about voter fraud.

[kreationkin]

Ah yes, those who practice body/muscle manipulation to promote healing are well known for their expertise on infectious diseases.

Apparently?

While she herself is still a complete idiot, Osteopathic Physicians are more commonly known as "doctors". They just have DOs instead of MDs for all practical purposes, there is nothing stopping a DO from specializing in Infectious Disease and becoming an expert in the field, they don't just do body/muscle manipulation. They still work in hospitals, private practices, family medicine etc. and have similar training to all MDs. There are lots of reasons to think Sherri is an idiot, her degree isn't one of them.

[Ripster42]

Whoops, tautology!

Just kidding, of course, but if Florida is going to insist on voter ID they should also insist on candidate ID. Both or neither.

Tautologies are the same forwards as backwards. Not all felons are republicans, so this is not a tautology.

Giuliani didn't need to know what he was saying was false. He's also lie-able if he just flat-out doesn't care if it's true or not, and says it as if it was true without finding out if it was true even though it's important, for example, if he's suing a state to overthrow democracy.

That's not how I took the question. Not as a question of whether or not it was defamation, but whether you're allowed to make representations to the court that you haven't bothered to ascertain the veracity of. Remember, the ghoul didn't just make public statements, he filed court cases alleging fraud.

While she herself is still a complete idiot, Osteopathic Physicians are more commonly known as "doctors". They just have DOs instead of MDs for all practical purposes, there is nothing stopping a DO from specializing in Infectious Disease and becoming an expert in the field, they don't just do body/muscle manipulation. They still work in hospitals, private practices, family medicine etc. and have similar training to all MDs. There are lots of reasons to think Sherri is an idiot, her degree isn't one of them.

I think people often confuse it with homeopathy.

[Breccia]

Tautologies are the same forwards as backwards. Not all felons are republicans, so this is not a tautology.

Joke.

whether you're allowed to make representations to the court that you haven't bothered to ascertain the veracity of.

That is a separate legal matter, and it cost him his license already right around the time he made those statements under oath. It could always cost him more.

I'm fairly sure a lawyer is allowed to say things like "what if I told you that..." but that's not what you're talking about. You're talking about "I'm suing democracy because of Some Guy On Twitter". And yes, I agree there should be a penalty for filing a lawsuit under reckless disregard. Dominion is simply going to take all his money while we wait for that to happen. I don't know the exact legal term or penalty for that, but I assume contempt, paying the defendant's legal fees, and having your license revoked are on the list.

[Benggaul]

Friday's report:

84,846 new cases; around 500 more than last Friday...I think. For some reason I had trouble pinpointing the date from worldometers so I drew from the NYT. (EDIT: I was able to get the worldometers number and it's an increase. Oof.)

Top 10:

California: 8,106 new cases; 105 deaths
Michigan: 6,080 new cases; 48 deaths
Pennsylvania: 5,130 new cases; 72 deaths
New York: 4,760 new cases; 37 deaths
Ohio: 4,348 new cases; 102 deaths
Arizona: 3,813 new cases; 58 deaths
Wisconsin: 3,311 new cases; 2 deaths
Colorado: 3,306 new cases; 25 deaths
Minnesota: 3,294 new cases; 35 deaths
Illinois: 2,942 new cases; 29 deaths

California had another ugly bump today and unfortunately I don't think it's a mere anomaly. We're seeing cases rising in various counties there so it appears as though the Winter wave is upon them. The slightly silver lining is that it doesn't seem (from what I can tell, stupid EU blocks) as though hospitalizations are rising as much. Yet. We'll see what the next couple weeks bring. They aren't alone; it looks like cases are also rising in several other states including Michigan, Wisconsin and as I've mentioned a few times the past week, Colorado. Texas fell out of the top 10 for the day and that's partially because they're finishing up their 2-month cycle--but also because they underreport on Fridays. Gotta knock off early so they can go trample people at concerts, I guess. Taking the whole "herd immunity" thing a bit too literally. The risk level of some southern states including Louisiana has gone back up to "High" as their infections per 100k goes up, so their honeymoon period following their last outbreak is probably coming to an end as well.

1,345 deaths is nearly 300 fewer than last Friday and brings the total to 774,673. Texas may have dropped from the top ten of new cases, but they're still tops on this one. California and Ohio round out the top 3. The 7-day average is approaching 1k and continuing to fall, though whether or not we actually dip below 1k before the next wave is in full swing is a coin flip.

Related news:

Unvaccinated workers face new challenge paying for their COVID-19 testing--I've had a scrape around and I just can't seem to come up with any sympathy for them. There are very, very few people who have a legitimate reason for not getting their jab (medical experts have also said that among those with health problems only a handful really can't get it) so if they're going to continue being foolish then they can pony up for the privilege.

Congressional Democrats aim at DeathSantis in bill to override bans on COVID mandates--This is in direct response to DeathSantis' special session aimed at ignoring federal mandates and allows local governments/private businesses to impose their own COVID rules and ignore state laws that go against CDC recommendations. It has little chance of passing, but it sends a message.

DeathSantis, Social Media Posts Mislead on COVID-19’s Toll in Florida--Essentially he's running a victory lap around a pile of dead bodies as a result of his refusal to follow CDC recommendations and simple fucking science. Fuck Florida.

Stay safe, folks.

EDIT: Found the total. Yikes.