Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Shalcker]

You need to work on your reading comprehension. No turnip for you today.

He doesn't need your help in crafting his narrative, nor is your help in any way noticeable.

Actually stopping him from nuclear and missile tests for a while is worth something though.

[Xeones]

He doesn't need your help in crafting his narrative, nor is your help in any way noticeable.

Actually stopping him from nuclear and missile tests for a while is worth something though.

At no point and time did he ever stop anything. While Trump was parading around twitter claiming "THREAT OVER!" the news was reporting the stories that nothing had stopped in North Korea.

[Breccia]

At no point and time did he ever stop anything.

This is correct.

The last NK nuclear test was Sept 2017. This was followed by the collapse of a nuclear test site in Oct 2017.

Perhaps their friends can tell it the best:

North Korea’s mountain nuclear test site has collapsed, putting China and other nearby nations at unprecedented risk of radioactive exposure, two separate groups of Chinese scientists studying the issue have confirmed.

The collapse after five nuclear blasts may be why North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared on Friday that he would freeze the hermit state’s nuclear and missile tests and shut down the site, one researcher said.

The last five of Pyongyang’s six nuclear tests have all been carried out under Mount Mantap at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Korea’s northwest.

One group of researchers found that the most recent blast tore open a hole in the mountain, which then collapsed upon itself. A second group concluded that the breakdown created a “chimney” that could allow radioactive fallout from the blast zone below to rise into the air.

A research team led by Wen Lianxing, a geologist with the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, concluded that the collapse occurred following the detonation last autumn of North Korea’s most powerful thermal nuclear warhead in a tunnel about 700 metres (2,296 feet) below the mountain’s peak.

The test turned the mountain into fragile fragments, the researchers found.

The mountain’s collapse, and the prospect of radioactive exposure in the aftermath, confirms a series of exclusive reports by the South China Morning Post on China’s fears that Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test had caused a fallout leak.

Radioactive dust could escape through holes or cracks in the damaged mountain, the scientists said.

The mountain’s surface had shown no visible damage after four underground nuclear tests before 2017.

But the 100-kilotonne bomb that went off on September 3 vaporised surrounding rocks with unprecedented heat and opened a space that was up to 200 metres (656 feet) in diameter, according to a statement posted on the Wen team’s website on Monday.

As shock waves tore through and loosened more rocks, a large section of the mountain’s ridge, less than half a kilometre (0.3 mile) from the peak, slipped down into the empty pocket created by the blast, leaving a scar visible in satellite images.

Wen concluded that the mountain had collapsed after analysing data collected from nearly 2,000 seismic stations.

Remember Star Trek VI? This is that. NK blew up their effectively only nuclear test site then Trump took credit for them stopping nuclear tests.

Anyone, with or without turnip breath, who claims otherwise is making a lame-ass limp-dick IMPOTUS attempt to defend Trump's dismal and complete failure in the situation.

[Shalcker]

At no point and time did he ever stop anything. While Trump was parading around twitter claiming "THREAT OVER!" the news was reporting the stories that nothing had stopped in North Korea.

Research and development didn't stop; tests did.

- - - Updated - - -

This is correct.

The last NK nuclear test was Sept 2017. This was followed by the collapse of a nuclear test site in Oct 2017.

Perhaps their friends can tell it the best:

Remember Star Trek VI? This is that. NK blew up their effectively only nuclear test site then Trump took credit for them stopping nuclear tests.

Nothing stopped them from continuing testing missiles though.

[Dontrike]

Research and development didn't stop; tests did.

- - - Updated - - -

Nothing stopped them from continuing testing missiles though.

Even though they haven't stopped testing and quite literally restarted days after Trump left the country both times.

[ringpriest]

On the "it's just posturing" side of the ledger... well, sending an aircraft carrier into the Gulf is stupid beyond words if you're actually expecting hostilities - restricted waters, easily in-range of everything Iran has, it's a dumb move; but it does make for a nice show of force, and (I have no doubt equally importantly for Trump) generates "tough-guy" headline back home - something that is always important for fascist dictators and generic military strongmen alike (<cough> Putin<cough>).

Commenting just on this bit - this is not dumb. Desert Storm (war with Iraq) used multiple carrier battle groups to establish air superiority / destroy command structure from exactly Persian Gulf and Red Sea, this was a success. Iran is next door to Iraq.

I will refer you to Maxim 43: If it's stupid and it works, it's still stupid and you're lucky. And it (sending CVN's into the Gulf - I won't deign to even pretend that what the United States Navy uses for escort forces today can be called a 'battle group') was, is, and remains stupidity on an epic scale; the carriers can sit in the Arabian Sea and be just as useful for any kinetic purpose (again, if there is some intent to intimidate or provoke, then that's at least something, although still very foolish to my mind) - arguably even more useful, since, in addition to little things like 'not being mission-killed by shore-launched ASMs, small boat swarms, sabotage, mines, direct assault, and/or some combination of the above and then some because by operating it the Gulf you've put the carrier in range of everything Iran can possibly bring to bear' it can operate more effectively without having to worry about the sailing the limited waters of the Gulf for launch and recovery operations.

It's not like the US doesn't have airpower available in the region!
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...1398324666&z=5

[Masark]

I will refer you to Maxim 43: If it's stupid and it works, it's still stupid and you're lucky.

Ah, another Schlock Mercenary reader.

[rda]

I will refer you to Maxim 43: If it's stupid and it works, it's still stupid and you're lucky. And it (sending CVN's into the Gulf - I won't deign to even pretend that what the United States Navy uses for escort forces today can be called a 'battle group') was, is, and remains stupidity on an epic scale; the carriers can sit in the Arabian Sea and be just as useful for any kinetic purpose (again, if there is some intent to intimidate or provoke, then that's at least something, although still very foolish to my mind) - arguably even more useful, since, in addition to little things like 'not being mission-killed by shore-launched ASMs, small boat swarms, sabotage, mines, direct assault, and/or some combination of the above and then some because by operating it the Gulf you've put the carrier in range of everything Iran can possibly bring to bear' it can operate more effectively without having to worry about the sailing the limited waters of the Gulf for launch and recovery operations.

It's not like the US doesn't have airpower available in the region!
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...1398324666&z=5

I understand where you are coming from. It is true that the general direction of new tech was such that carriers get challenged a lot, they have been losing ground steadily and their doctrinal roles have been changing and becoming more narrow. But it is absolutely not as black and white as you imply it is. Whether moving carriers into the Gulf fighting vs Iran is a good idea or not depends on the level of anti-naval defenses Iran has there. If they have a lot (including projections on what might be hidden / deployed fast), then moving in is a bad idea, otherwise, it is not a bad idea, and the carriers can move in and aid in establishing air superiority / supporting ground operations. Whether this makes sense or not depends on the specific circumstances. It absolutely is not an automatic "carrier moving into the Gulf = stupid".

[Templar 331]

I remember when people were saying that Trump was "legitimizing Kim on the national stage", and at the time I thought, "What are the consequences of that, exactly? What does that mean?"

I'm still not sure.

It's called gaslighing. You have a dictator trying his damnedest to create nukes while the U.S. President denies this and tires his damnedest to make Kim look like he's not. Case in point....



Why is he doing this you ask? Trump thinks when Kim is finished with his weapons he'll sit at the negotiating. That will make Trump and only Trump look like he's accomplished something because no one else wants to deal with Kim. But just like last time it'll only make Trump more the fool.

[rda]

^^ This is just basic negotiation tricks. Leaving the door open for dialog and all that. Not sure what you wanted - someone has to talk like this else there can be no diplomatic progress. If the idea is that this someone should be someone other than the president - fair enough, maybe. I agree that Trump should tweet much less than he does.

[Templar 331]

^^ This is just basic negotiation tricks. Leaving the door open for dialog and all that. Not sure what you wanted - someone has to talk like this else there can be no diplomatic progress. If the idea is that this someone should be someone other than the president - fair enough, maybe. I agree that Trump should tweet much less than he does.

So Kim breaks previous agreement with Trump, Trump bends over backwards to downplay it.
Iran keeps to previous agreement with Obama, Trump screams about how bad everything is and how he'll destroy Iran if war came about.

This is not a "basic negotiation trick." It's Trump being what Trump has always been. A blow hard narcissist who thinks he's in control because someone wants something he can give them. Or worst, in the case of Iran, he takes away something from someone and holds them at gunpoint. In the case of NK, Kim has played Trump like a fiddle and gotten to test his weapons out long after their "agreement." Iran, who hasn't been bowing to Trump or shown that they've broken their end of the deal, are the enemy now.

This is not how negotiations work.

[Shalcker]

So Kim breaks previous agreement with Trump, Trump bends over backwards to downplay it.

What previous agreement? Could you tell me what US promised exactly to North Korea for their part of stopping tests?

I'm seeing stuff like even promised 2 million $ for Otto Warmbier care not being paid.

It doesn't look like launched missiles were ballistic either, so North Korea could still technically keep their promise.

[Cthulhu 2020]

What previous agreement? Could you tell me what US promised exactly to North Korea for their part of stopping tests?

I'm seeing stuff like even promised 2 million $ for Otto Warmbier care not being paid.

It doesn't look like launched missiles were ballistic either, so North Korea could still technically keep their promise.

http://time.com/5309425/donald-trump...ent-full-text/

Trump kept spinning #3 as him successfully stopping Nuclear tests in N. Korea. Promising to work towards the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and continuing tests, is the definition of FAILURE. I realize your short term memory is really bad when it's convenient for you, but seriously.

[Shalcker]

http://time.com/5309425/donald-trump...ent-full-text/

Trump kept spinning #3 as him successfully stopping Nuclear tests in N. Korea. Promising to work towards the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and continuing tests, is the definition of FAILURE. I realize your short term memory is really bad when it's convenient for you, but seriously.

What? That document says nothing about stopping any tests. Working toward denuclearization is a process with many steps.

And there were NO nuclear tests. The only tests that happened were missile tests - by DPRK news, MLRS and cruise, not ballistic.

There is no disagreement with that document at all.

[rda]

http://time.com/5309425/donald-trump...ent-full-text/

Trump kept spinning #3 as him successfully stopping Nuclear tests in N. Korea. Promising to work towards the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and continuing tests, is the definition of FAILURE. I realize your short term memory is really bad when it's convenient for you, but seriously.

How does this answer Shalcker's question? You say that Trump kept spinning something as a big success, fine, whatever, politicians spin things, yes. But where in the text you quoted NK is stopping tests and what for? NK "commit to work toward complete denuclearization", sure. This means "let's talk more, we are willing to listen to what you will propose".

[Shalcker]

How does this answer Shalcker's question? You say that Trump kept spinning something as a big success, fine, whatever, politicians spin things, yes. But where in the text you quoted NK is stopping tests and what for? NK "commit to work toward complete denuclearization", sure. This means "let's talk more, we are willing to listen to what you will propose".

Answer, apparently, is that US promised to talk, to which NK responded that they are willing to talk too!

...and that's the extent of their commitment as written.

[Dontrike]

NK "commit to work toward complete denuclearization", sure. This means "let's talk more, we are willing to listen to what you will propose".

That's funny in of itself. North Korea is willing to do anything like that.

[Shalcker]

That's funny in of itself. North Korea is willing to do anything like that.

What North Korea wants is security.

The problem is, the only way they can guarantee their own security is through nukes - because they are relatively small country at odds with US who has bases just across the border. They successfully developed nukes (so at least their scientists are good enough) because previous US presidents reneged on their commitments that were aimed at stopping their nuclear development program. Like building nuclear reactors for North Korea (of non-weapon-grade-producing variety, of course).

So, they are mostly safe now, but nukes get them sanctioned.

And the only way to denuclearise them now is to prove them that they'll be safe without nukes AND that US will not renege on their commitments again - or that other big players will have their back if it does.

[Breccia]

I found more "basic negotiating tricks" from the Associated Press. Turns out, NK is calling Bolton a "warmonger" for pointing out that NK's tests violated UN restrictions.

"That doesn't sound too bad. I'm sure basic negotiation tricks involve people citing UN rules and using the term 'warmonger' all the time."

How about the term "human defect"?

"Uh...could you use it in a sentence?"

It will be fit to call Bolton not a security adviser striving for security but a security-destroying adviser who is wrecking peace and security. It is not at all strange that perverse words always come out from the mouth of a structurally defective guy, and such a human defect deserves an earlier vanishing

That still sound like basic negotiation tricks? In fact, if you feel such language is part and parcel of the "basic negotiation tricks" then you should go ahead and label someone else as a "human defect" who "deserves an earlier vanishing" right now. In public. These forums. Right now. See what happens.

[rda]

I fail to understand the point you are making. Do you have one? Seems like you don't and just want to post some sarcastic comments with the general theme of Trump is bad.