View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
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  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #6061
    I am Murloc!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I would imagine it was to happen it would either go the ECJ or the ICJ. Why?
    i meant enforce the settlement, as in what would be police force that forces the parties to obey the settlement. In a country, typically you have 3 branch of government. The executive branch job is to enforce, using force if necessary, the decision of the judicial branch.

    So what is the force in the world that would make the parties obey to the settlement, by force if necessary.

  2. #6062
    Quote Originally Posted by Nigel Tufnel View Post
    My other half was made redundant from her job late last year (vaguely construction/design). This was a direct result of economic uncertainty in the city, cancelled contracts & a small amount of non-payerss. I posted this here.
    This is what I'm talking about and why Art. 50 needs to be handled in a fashion that guarantees certainty, one way or another. But not simply gambling with the actual livelihood of humans "just to see what happens", which is how Brexit always felt like, considering how ill prepared the UK actually was for it, politically.
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  3. #6063
    Dreadlord Nigel Tufnel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    In a word yes, all thanks to the brexit vote. Just before the referendum in anticipation of the result and following UK/EU stupid negotiations I moved half of everything to America, more by luck than judgement investing into, tax free in the UK (ISA's, SIPP etc), funds heavily weighted with FAANG shares. Thanks to Brexit, now I am very alright Jack, without that vote happening I probably would never haved moved the money.

    Didn't everyone do this? It was bloody obvious looking back... even if you had stuck with the UK FTSE 100 that is still 25% up since the vote, and probably with 4% (at least) annual dividend income as the cream on top. Thanks again Brexit.

    The very real threat coming is a Corbyn government, I have never voted Labour ever, but if the Conservatives do not deliver a proper Brexit and in effect declare democracy dead in the UK, I will for the first time ever vote for Labours Corbyn. I suspect many Brexiteer Tories will do the same, not because he will be any good, but the financial and social destruction he will visit upon the UK will be a sight to behold. And those whining remainers who are stopping a proper Brexit deserve to experience that.

    I'll be alright you understand, my money is in and will stay in the US. And if the US fails the world is fucked, not just me.

    So Floopa and perhaps you Nigel might get Corbyn, Floopa is off to France I think. Corbyn is coming Nigel, your preparations are?

    As an aside, and just to rub a little salt in those remainer wounds, isn't this site owned by Amazon? Everytime you visit it Amazon makes a bit of money and a bit of that bit ends up with me. Keep on coming at me remainers, keep it up - you are making me very rich! And all thanks to Brexit....woohoo!
    Dude...

    You don't work? You derive an income from investments?

    You don't have a job?

    We all have pensions. I have a SIPP. I've weighted it in favour of technology, America & Asia. I have a few ISAs.

    But that's a pension & a few ISAs lol

    Please tell me you at least have a job?

    I mean I'm guessing you're not public sector?

    Anyway... this will have to wait. Gin-soaked haze is overcoming me. Gn

  4. #6064
    Seems like Thunder triggered Sargon again lol.



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  5. #6065
    Quote Originally Posted by Nigel Tufnel View Post
    But Pann - it isn't just post-Brexit: it's the here and now.

    My other half was made redundant from her job late last year (vaguely construction/design). This was a direct result of economic uncertainty in the city, cancelled contracts & a small amount of non-payerss. I posted this here.

    https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...4#post47953224

    Exactly the same thing happened in 2008. Exactly the same thing. Her's was one of the very first industries to be affected by the economic downturn.

    My point being is this: what sort of economic hit do you think people are going to accept so as to allow racist baby boomers the security of not having to talk to 'foreign' people?

    There's a certain amount of "well, collateral damage is fine if we achieve the end result" - I can assure you, if you're on the receiving end, it isn't fine.

    I linked one study above re. effect on GDP. Literally, I can link hundreds more. But there's no point. It all comes down to whether or not you're *insulated* from the economic shock or not.
    Thanks for the detailed reply. First all I am sorry to hear about what happened to your other half and I hope that things work out for you both.

    I must say that I am not comfortable with labelling those who voted differently as stupid, racist or whatever. I feel this is one of the major reasons why remain lost the referendum and has failed any headway in bringing leave supporters around to the realities of Brexit.

    I read the link you provided earlier and it was that prompted my question. The worst case scenario in the link is a fall back to WTO terms which may result in a 4% reduction in GDP growth over a ten year period. To put this in perspective current UK GDP is in the region of £2trillion per annum if we say for argument sake it will grow by 10% in the next ten years to £2.2T under the worst case scenario GDP would grow to £2.11T in ten years time.

    I appreciate that this is no consolation to your situation and in no way am I trying to trivialise your family's experience nor am I trying to paint this as a price worth paying for Brexit but it is far from the doom and gloom situation that many try to portray it as.

    Anyway whatever happens I hope you are all okay.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post
    i meant enforce the settlement, as in what would be police force that forces the parties to obey the settlement. In a country, typically you have 3 branch of government. The executive branch job is to enforce, using force if necessary, the decision of the judicial branch.

    So what is the force in the world that would make the parties obey to the settlement, by force if necessary.
    Why would it need to be enforced? Do you think that it would be successful and the EU would ignore a legal judgement against them?

  6. #6066
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nigel Tufnel View Post
    Dude...

    You don't work? You derive an income from investments?

    You don't have a job?

    We all have pensions. I have a SIPP. I've weighted it in favour of technology, America & Asia. I have a few ISAs.

    But that's a pension & a few ISAs lol

    Please tell me you at least have a job?

    I mean I'm guessing you're not public sector?

    Anyway... this will have to wait. Gin-soaked haze is overcoming me. Gn
    Of course I have a job, two in fact, well one is more like a hobby. Like you I do my quarterly VAT returns for one "job" so no, not public sector either.

    One is doing ok, the hobby one, the other is booming even though perhaps 20% of my customers use my manufactured components in their end product exported to the EU.

    None will be affected by Brexit in any way whatsoever profits wise, except perhaps another shed load of paperwork for me and a little bit more to the accountants.

    Enjoy your gin, made in England I hope, where else after all.

  7. #6067
    Quote Originally Posted by szechuan View Post
    Seems like Thunder triggered Sargon again lol.
    That's actually not bad of a video.
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  8. #6068
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    And that is the flip side of this issue. Look at Scotland, always holding independence hostage in the house of commons. It's ridiculous and I'm fairly certain the British are just as irritated by that as we are with British exceptions. It's ironic really, but the British know best how the EU feels right now. You'd think it would give them an advantage...
    This isn't really accurate. Independence rarely gets mentioned in the Commons by the pro-independence party. It's usually used by the Tories to dodge questions posed by the SNP. Sturgeon brought it up last year in Holyrood after no mention of it since 2014, mostly due to pressure from her base.
    Last edited by Shadowmelded; 2018-07-16 at 08:42 AM.

  9. #6069
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I read the link you provided earlier and it was that prompted my question. The worst case scenario in the link is a fall back to WTO terms which may result in a 4% reduction in GDP growth over a ten year period. To put this in perspective current UK GDP is in the region of £2trillion per annum if we say for argument sake it will grow by 10% in the next ten years to £2.2T under the worst case scenario GDP would grow to £2.11T in ten years time.
    I'm not sure I've read that link, are they taking into account that the UK doesn't have customs in place?

  10. #6070
    Quote Originally Posted by szechuan View Post
    Seems like Thunder triggered Sargon again lol.
    I love the idea that May's fucking up Brexit because she's a Remainder. LOL.

    I'd love to see his non-"spineless" plan.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Nigel Tufnel View Post
    But Pann - it isn't just post-Brexit: it's the here and now.

    My other half was made redundant from her job late last year (vaguely construction/design). This was a direct result of economic uncertainty in the city, cancelled contracts & a small amount of non-payerss. I posted this here.

    https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...4#post47953224

    Exactly the same thing happened in 2008. Exactly the same thing. Her's was one of the very first industries to be affected by the economic downturn.

    My point being is this: what sort of economic hit do you think people are going to accept so as to allow racist baby boomers the security of not having to talk to 'foreign' people?

    There's a certain amount of "well, collateral damage is fine if we achieve the end result" - I can assure you, if you're on the receiving end, it isn't fine.

    I linked one study above re. effect on GDP. Literally, I can link hundreds more. But there's no point. It all comes down to whether or not you're *insulated* from the economic shock or not.
    I wonder how much those old farts will enjoy the price hikes if the US gets access to the NHS.

    But they'll probably just blame the Poles somehow, cause and effect isn't really their strong suit.
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  11. #6071
    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post
    is that even possible?
    Begging? But of course that is possible, but there is not much time left.
    The EU is a demoncratic institution and as such does need some time to decide how to react to such begging should it occur.

  12. #6072
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Enjoy your gin, made in England I hope, where else after all.
    Personally I perfer the the German one, but I guess English gin is not that bad for the most part.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The UK could always crash out of the EU and then apply for accession during the transition period
    A transition period without a deal?
    There is no such thing.

  13. #6073
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    You are right. Then just crash out and come back and ask for accession?
    Would they even meet the criteria after the decade those talks might take?
    And think how bad they will have to have it before they might even think about starting those talks.

  14. #6074
    Quote Originally Posted by Noradin View Post
    Begging? But of course that is possible, but there is not much time left.
    The EU is a demoncratic institution and as such does need some time to decide how to react to such begging should it occur.
    I'm unconvinced that the EU even has a response to begging. The wheels have been set in motion. I wonder how enthusiastic MEPs would be to reverse the process and how much dallying is going to be involved.

    It's interesting, because that's the actual gauge by which one can measure just how much the EU dreads the Brexit. In the end, we may find out just how much the EU thought it would get hurt by the quickness of the reaction and the nature of it. If they reject a withdrawal from the withdrawal, we can be sure the EU wasn't too worried (doubtful). If they jump to the occasion and instantly cancel everything, we know they think a lot more was on the line than they led us to believe, since they needed a strong position to negotiate from.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Noradin View Post
    Would they even meet the criteria after the decade those talks might take?
    And think how bad they will have to have it before they might even think about starting those talks.
    I'm fairly certain the UK would make the criteria rather easily once they set their minds on it. They would probably need some reforms to ensure democracy and fight corruption, but economically I see no problem.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
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  15. #6075
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I mean what does the EU have to gain from Brexit?
    I can think of avoiding certain harmful UK obstructions (like the fact that we had Chinese steel dumping cause they didn't let the EU retaliate) but I am not sure the UK was the only issue with further convergence; after the crisis after all, the North would not at all be willing to converge with the South and many in the East would not ever cede any sovereignty that may expose the poor level of their democracies.
    Politically, the Eu will be able to spin a Remain fabulously, even if Brussels was actually sweating while giving us a world class poker face. Economically we are certainly better of with the UK than without them in every possible measure.
    On the other hand, without the UK, the EU actually has more strive to move forward with things like an EU defense plan. The UK would surely block that as soon as they're back in the saddle. They still fear that Germany will invade their tiny island.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
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  16. #6076
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    I wonder how much those old farts will enjoy the price hikes if the US gets access to the NHS.

    But they'll probably just blame the Poles somehow, cause and effect isn't really their strong suit.
    I think if the US ends up getting there hands on the NHS and we get an American style healthcare system (here's hoping we don't), the average tax payer wouldn't really feel much change, National Insurance will stop and be replaced with personal Medical Insurance, atleast from what I understand of the American system.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    On the other hand, without the UK, the EU actually has more strive to move forward with things like an EU defense plan. The UK would surely block that as soon as they're back in the saddle. They still fear that Germany will invade their tiny island.
    If Brexit does end up getting turned around, I can't see the EU letting us have our veto back.

  17. #6077
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noradin View Post
    Begging? But of course that is possible, but there is not much time left.
    The EU is a demoncratic institution and as such does need some time to decide how to react to such begging should it occur.
    Shock poll reveals Brits would rather have a No Deal Brexit than back Theresa May's plan

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-quit-12925014

    Percentage who want to go begging the EU for anything? 0% mmm mmm mmm.

  18. #6078
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Wait, 39% want hard brexit. 20% want soft. What do the other 41 want? To go for a picnic?
    Are you THAT bad at math?
    The referendum was 52/48 in favour of Brexit and now, if you generously want to assume 41 want to picnic with the EU (I doubt it), now it is at 59/41 in favour of Brexit.

    Crucially it also shows support for letting the EU crash out over the cliff edge without a deal with the UK strengthening considerably.

    Does your math show something else?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    25% want an extension, 16% don't know, the option to revoke article 50 was not even in the poll.
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-conte..._July-2018.pdf
    If revoking article 50 had any traction in the UK the option would have been in there. Just assume nobody other than the EU might want to.
    I suppose if they come begging its possible....
    Last edited by dribbles; 2018-07-16 at 12:06 PM.

  19. #6079
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The referendum was 52/48 in favour of Brexit and now, if you generously want to assume 41 want to picnic with the EU (I doubt it), now it is at 59/41 in favour of Brexit.

    Crucially it also shows support for letting the EU crash out over the cliff edge without a deal with the UK strengthening considerably.

    Does your math show something else?
    It's a poll, not a referendum, which you do not even know the question of, or the other possibilities.

    If I asked people "how should we proceed with Brexit?" and give the options
    - May's soft Brexit plan
    - No deal
    - ask for an extension
    then you will find 0% voting for remain. What a shock.
    Heck, 41% could have voted to rename all people named "Dribbles" to "Snibbles" for all we know.

  20. #6080
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiri View Post
    It's a poll, not a referendum, which you do not even know the question of, or the other possibilities.

    If I asked people "how should we proceed with Brexit?" and give the options
    - May's soft Brexit plan
    - No deal
    - ask for an extension
    then you will find 0% voting for remain. What a shock.
    Heck, 41% could have voted to rename all people named "Dribbles" to "Snibbles" for all we know.
    Asking for an extension, perhaps forever yet never leaving ala the Norway model, is the the remain option. (1 in 4 went for it)

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