The Brexit aftermath thread

[Blur4stuff]

Given that Trump somehow managed to make Canada an enemy, I'm not sure he understands how to be neighborly.

[Pann]

not sure if you guys already saw, but apparently, Trump's great plan for brexit would be to sue the EU

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.b4f2bffc4de9

Frankly, that only works if you plan to move your island to another continent, but if you intend to stay, you usually want to keep amicable relation with your neighbor.

It's been widely reported in the UK. But it is not an original idea David Davis was way ahead of him - http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/09/b...uk-sue-the-eu-

[oathy]

A lot of people wont know her.
but she is basically she's an MP right in the Center of the tory party.
Well liked and respected

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...fied-_-TWITTER

another Junior minister quit tonight ready to voice his doubts over her amazing new deal. there are two huge votes in the commons tomorrow.

the lies about the NHS are blown totally open. Yes its going to get some money but most will come from Tax rises something
they could have done years ago. But the tories are the low tax party and didn't want to blow that image.

the people voted and handed it to the Government to get things sorted. they have failed on just about every level
If this really isnt a constitutional Crisis what is? we have a government in total deadlock a situation thats going to
seriously damage a lot of people's lives and all they can do is keep arguing its madness

[Vankrys]

It's been widely reported in the UK. But it is not an original idea David Davis was way ahead of him - http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/09/b...uk-sue-the-eu-

quick question, to entertain the idea. Who would be enforcing the settlement.

[Slant]

no deal is the likely outcome as it is the default result if nobody takes any action. May has said her stuff, Barnier (on behalf of EU and its known stance) will decline and that's it. UK will crash out into darkness and without any safety net.

No Brexit happens only if May grabs her party by the collar and House of Commons in tow and confesses the invocation of article 50 was a mistake from the first second on. and she will have to swallow any pride left and will have to BEG the EU to forget the endeavour.

And they'll have to cough up money to pay for the whole party, that is what I would expect. All of the planning and the damages companies are going to sue someone for isn't going to pay for itself.

[dribbles]

Mr D, I accept you may be motivated, by among other things, a libertarian-based desire for small governance (?) I don’t entirely disagree on this point. However, are you really rich enough to be able to absorb the economic shockwaves that will result from Brexit, whichever form it takes?

https://www.rand.org/randeurope/rese...alculator.html

TTIP option is dead and so can be ignored.

All the studies - I could link source after source after source - suggest this. Literally, source after source after source.

I simply cannot take criticism of “Project Fear” from the likes of Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Farage and co. seriously. Privileged, wealthy and insulated from the reality of the real economic impact of this. E.g., Nissan uprooting from Sunderland, Airbus / Bristol, etc.

Yes, we can argue until the cows come home about this. But fundamentally, we’re not going to find out who’s right until five years down the line.

I think you’ve got it wrong. We should be inside the tent pissing out. Europhile countries who are agreed should pursue fiscal integration leaving those who don’t outside and in a close trading alliance, supporting mutually beneficial cross-border projects. With less interference from the ECJ overall.

But no. EU did its ever closer thing. Cameron was forced into a corner by UKIP. And there we go. It’s too late now. You win!

But really – Rees-Mogg or another hard brexiteer for PM? Just…. wow. Somerset Capital Management? Opposed to same sex marriage. Opposed to abortion in all circumstances, including rape. Foodbanks are “uplifting”. Climate change sceptic / abolition of environmental protections.

He’s the antichrist, Mr D.

And – getting to the point now - given the option I’d rather have Corbyn. Who may be wrong about a lot of things but at least isn’t the antichrist.

And this is the point I made to my MP recently. I suggest other people do the same.

Do not allow May to be forced out by one of the nutters on the right.

Yay France, grats.

In a word yes, all thanks to the brexit vote. Just before the referendum in anticipation of the result and following UK/EU stupid negotiations I moved half of everything to America, more by luck than judgement investing into, tax free in the UK (ISA's, SIPP etc), funds heavily weighted with FAANG shares. Thanks to Brexit, now I am very alright Jack, without that vote happening I probably would never haved moved the money.

Didn't everyone do this? It was bloody obvious looking back... even if you had stuck with the UK FTSE 100 that is still 25% up since the vote, and probably with 4% (at least) annual dividend income as the cream on top. Thanks again Brexit.

The very real threat coming is a Corbyn government, I have never voted Labour ever, but if the Conservatives do not deliver a proper Brexit and in effect declare democracy dead in the UK, I will for the first time ever vote for Labours Corbyn. I suspect many Brexiteer Tories will do the same, not because he will be any good, but the financial and social destruction he will visit upon the UK will be a sight to behold. And those whining remainers who are stopping a proper Brexit deserve to experience that.

I'll be alright you understand, my money is in and will stay in the US. And if the US fails the world is fucked, not just me.

So Floopa and perhaps you Nigel might get Corbyn, Floopa is off to France I think. Corbyn is coming Nigel, your preparations are?

As an aside, and just to rub a little salt in those remainer wounds, isn't this site owned by Amazon? Everytime you visit it Amazon makes a bit of money and a bit of that bit ends up with me. Keep on coming at me remainers, keep it up - you are making me very rich! And all thanks to Brexit....woohoo!

[Slant]

is that even possible?

I remember a debate in whether the UK could retract from article 50. It's not that trivial, since it would set a dangerous precedent. Other country could "safely" threaten the EU to leave as a negotiation tactic if they don't get what they want, knowing fully they can retract if negotiation don't go well.

So letting the UK retract from article 50 unscathed is a matter that demand reflection. If possible, it probably would need at least the unanimous agreement of the 27 members. If possible at all.

Legal experts are divided on this. Some say it's possible to withdraw from Article 50 the same way it was invoked, because that scenario isn't defined in the legal text. Others say once you've invoked Article 50, the proceedings have to be agreed upon by all member states. Including an end to the proceedings by withdrawing. Who knows, I personally would prefer if the EU had to vote on it, simply because otherwise you're right... countries could use Art. 50 as a negotiation token at their whim. That would be very, very cumbersome.

[Slant]

But those privileges have been unfair from the get go. They are what allowed the UK to have such a skewed perception of the EU. If they want to stay, they better commit to staying. What is the point otherwise? You'd get people asking for a referendum again within a few years.

And that is the flip side of this issue. Look at Scotland, always holding independence hostage in the house of commons. It's ridiculous and I'm fairly certain the British are just as irritated by that as we are with British exceptions. It's ironic really, but the British know best how the EU feels right now. You'd think it would give them an advantage...

[Pann]

quick question, to entertain the idea. Who would be enforcing the settlement.

I would imagine it was to happen it would either go the ECJ or the ICJ. Why?

[Nigel Tufnel]

Nigel, I have to ask what exactly do you think is going to happen to the UK post Brexit?

But Pann - it isn't just post-Brexit: it's the here and now.

My other half was made redundant from her job late last year (vaguely construction/design). This was a direct result of economic uncertainty in the city, cancelled contracts & a small amount of non-payerss. I posted this here.

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...4#post47953224

Exactly the same thing happened in 2008. Exactly the same thing. Her's was one of the very first industries to be affected by the economic downturn.

My point being is this: what sort of economic hit do you think people are going to accept so as to allow racist baby boomers the security of not having to talk to 'foreign' people?

There's a certain amount of "well, collateral damage is fine if we achieve the end result" - I can assure you, if you're on the receiving end, it isn't fine.

I linked one study above re. effect on GDP. Literally, I can link hundreds more. But there's no point. It all comes down to whether or not you're *insulated* from the economic shock or not.

[Slant]

What would be the point though?

Continuity. A large reason why we have laws and rulesets is to provide certainty and continuity. Because that is what businesses need to grow. Essentially, this is all about money in the private sector, believe it or not. Look at those investment banks and the service sector in London. They're freaking out right now. They don't know whether to ship their staff to Europe or stay. Oh, some have moved a couple hundred, some haven't. But trust me, everyone there is thinking about it and double checking the rules about whether or not they can continue to offer services in the EU.

This, in different flavours, would happen in every country and to the EU, every single time someone triggered Article 50. Jurisdiction hates uncertainty. Business hates an atmosphere of Schrödinger politics. It's damaging not just reputations, it's damaging investments. And that's not a small feat you read about in the press. It can't be stressed enough that you really, really want to avoid legalese where one party can decide to throw everyone into a huge mess and then simply cancels out, because "oh boy, it's really much worse than we expected..."

You can do that in your personal life, but these are nations with GDPs in the trillions. They should know better than to risk economic crashes like this.

[Vankrys]

I would imagine it was to happen it would either go the ECJ or the ICJ. Why?

i meant enforce the settlement, as in what would be police force that forces the parties to obey the settlement. In a country, typically you have 3 branch of government. The executive branch job is to enforce, using force if necessary, the decision of the judicial branch.

So what is the force in the world that would make the parties obey to the settlement, by force if necessary.

[Slant]

My other half was made redundant from her job late last year (vaguely construction/design). This was a direct result of economic uncertainty in the city, cancelled contracts & a small amount of non-payerss. I posted this here.

This is what I'm talking about and why Art. 50 needs to be handled in a fashion that guarantees certainty, one way or another. But not simply gambling with the actual livelihood of humans "just to see what happens", which is how Brexit always felt like, considering how ill prepared the UK actually was for it, politically.

[Nigel Tufnel]

In a word yes, all thanks to the brexit vote. Just before the referendum in anticipation of the result and following UK/EU stupid negotiations I moved half of everything to America, more by luck than judgement investing into, tax free in the UK (ISA's, SIPP etc), funds heavily weighted with FAANG shares. Thanks to Brexit, now I am very alright Jack, without that vote happening I probably would never haved moved the money.

Didn't everyone do this? It was bloody obvious looking back... even if you had stuck with the UK FTSE 100 that is still 25% up since the vote, and probably with 4% (at least) annual dividend income as the cream on top. Thanks again Brexit.

The very real threat coming is a Corbyn government, I have never voted Labour ever, but if the Conservatives do not deliver a proper Brexit and in effect declare democracy dead in the UK, I will for the first time ever vote for Labours Corbyn. I suspect many Brexiteer Tories will do the same, not because he will be any good, but the financial and social destruction he will visit upon the UK will be a sight to behold. And those whining remainers who are stopping a proper Brexit deserve to experience that.

I'll be alright you understand, my money is in and will stay in the US. And if the US fails the world is fucked, not just me.

So Floopa and perhaps you Nigel might get Corbyn, Floopa is off to France I think. Corbyn is coming Nigel, your preparations are?

As an aside, and just to rub a little salt in those remainer wounds, isn't this site owned by Amazon? Everytime you visit it Amazon makes a bit of money and a bit of that bit ends up with me. Keep on coming at me remainers, keep it up - you are making me very rich! And all thanks to Brexit....woohoo!

Dude...

You don't work? You derive an income from investments?

You don't have a job?

We all have pensions. I have a SIPP. I've weighted it in favour of technology, America & Asia. I have a few ISAs.

But that's a pension & a few ISAs lol

Please tell me you at least have a job?

I mean I'm guessing you're not public sector?

Anyway... this will have to wait. Gin-soaked haze is overcoming me. Gn

[szechuan]

Seems like Thunder triggered Sargon again lol.

[Pann]

But Pann - it isn't just post-Brexit: it's the here and now.

My other half was made redundant from her job late last year (vaguely construction/design). This was a direct result of economic uncertainty in the city, cancelled contracts & a small amount of non-payerss. I posted this here.

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...4#post47953224

Exactly the same thing happened in 2008. Exactly the same thing. Her's was one of the very first industries to be affected by the economic downturn.

My point being is this: what sort of economic hit do you think people are going to accept so as to allow racist baby boomers the security of not having to talk to 'foreign' people?

There's a certain amount of "well, collateral damage is fine if we achieve the end result" - I can assure you, if you're on the receiving end, it isn't fine.

I linked one study above re. effect on GDP. Literally, I can link hundreds more. But there's no point. It all comes down to whether or not you're *insulated* from the economic shock or not.

Thanks for the detailed reply. First all I am sorry to hear about what happened to your other half and I hope that things work out for you both.

I must say that I am not comfortable with labelling those who voted differently as stupid, racist or whatever. I feel this is one of the major reasons why remain lost the referendum and has failed any headway in bringing leave supporters around to the realities of Brexit.

I read the link you provided earlier and it was that prompted my question. The worst case scenario in the link is a fall back to WTO terms which may result in a 4% reduction in GDP growth over a ten year period. To put this in perspective current UK GDP is in the region of £2trillion per annum if we say for argument sake it will grow by 10% in the next ten years to £2.2T under the worst case scenario GDP would grow to £2.11T in ten years time.

I appreciate that this is no consolation to your situation and in no way am I trying to trivialise your family's experience nor am I trying to paint this as a price worth paying for Brexit but it is far from the doom and gloom situation that many try to portray it as.

Anyway whatever happens I hope you are all okay.

- - - Updated - - -

i meant enforce the settlement, as in what would be police force that forces the parties to obey the settlement. In a country, typically you have 3 branch of government. The executive branch job is to enforce, using force if necessary, the decision of the judicial branch.

So what is the force in the world that would make the parties obey to the settlement, by force if necessary.

Why would it need to be enforced? Do you think that it would be successful and the EU would ignore a legal judgement against them?

[dribbles]

Dude...

You don't work? You derive an income from investments?

You don't have a job?

We all have pensions. I have a SIPP. I've weighted it in favour of technology, America & Asia. I have a few ISAs.

But that's a pension & a few ISAs lol

Please tell me you at least have a job?

I mean I'm guessing you're not public sector?

Anyway... this will have to wait. Gin-soaked haze is overcoming me. Gn

Of course I have a job, two in fact, well one is more like a hobby. Like you I do my quarterly VAT returns for one "job" so no, not public sector either.

One is doing ok, the hobby one, the other is booming even though perhaps 20% of my customers use my manufactured components in their end product exported to the EU.

None will be affected by Brexit in any way whatsoever profits wise, except perhaps another shed load of paperwork for me and a little bit more to the accountants.

Enjoy your gin, made in England I hope, where else after all.

[Slant]

Seems like Thunder triggered Sargon again lol.

That's actually not bad of a video.

[Shadowmelded]

And that is the flip side of this issue. Look at Scotland, always holding independence hostage in the house of commons. It's ridiculous and I'm fairly certain the British are just as irritated by that as we are with British exceptions. It's ironic really, but the British know best how the EU feels right now. You'd think it would give them an advantage...

This isn't really accurate. Independence rarely gets mentioned in the Commons by the pro-independence party. It's usually used by the Tories to dodge questions posed by the SNP. Sturgeon brought it up last year in Holyrood after no mention of it since 2014, mostly due to pressure from her base.

[Mayhem]

I read the link you provided earlier and it was that prompted my question. The worst case scenario in the link is a fall back to WTO terms which may result in a 4% reduction in GDP growth over a ten year period. To put this in perspective current UK GDP is in the region of £2trillion per annum if we say for argument sake it will grow by 10% in the next ten years to £2.2T under the worst case scenario GDP would grow to £2.11T in ten years time.

I'm not sure I've read that link, are they taking into account that the UK doesn't have customs in place?