Roy Moores loss was NOT an outlier - GOP headed for heavy losses in 2018.

[Omega10]

1) Nobody would forget about a constitutional crisis. The people that won't care won't care, but it would still be a monumental event. It would occupy 99% of the oxygen in the room for a very long time. As for the tax cuts: most polls show support for the bill just below or barely cracking 30% approval. Obamacare- a bill which has been a rallying point for Republican support since before it was passed, and is partially responsible for their House majority- has never polled that low. The electorate's memory can be short, but it isn't that short.

2) Of course, the party wanted to put up a decent human being (Luther Strange, which was a dumb choice- strategically they should've backed Mo Brooks instead), but the voters picked Roy Moore. The GoP is having a major clash between what their base wants and what the party establishment wants. Look at Arizona: the Bannon-backed candidate that by all indications leads the charge for Flake's seat is Kelli Ward. The GoP can push for "decent human beings" but if the base picks more nut jobs in the primaries, they could be in for some more hurt in the generals.

I hope you are correct. We won't know for quite some time.

[lockedout]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...as-an-outlier/

Jones ' victory very much gives Democrats a chance of taking back the Senate next year. I'm expecting at least a 50 seat gain in the house at this point.

He barely lost and was a pedophile. I wouldn't consider it a victory of merit. I think he lost by 1-1.5%?

[Xeones]

He barely lost and was a pedophile. I wouldn't consider it a victory of merit. I think he lost by 1-1.5%?

There are plenty of red states that don't require a 30 point swing to win.

[Lenonis]

By 2018, voters will have either forgotten about him or won't weigh him into their decision on who they vote for in their state. Trump is of course the elephant in the room but I still think most voters will tow the party line.

The dems won't let voters forget about him. It would be far worse if Moore was actually elected, but the GOP decided in the end to fully back, both financially and via campaigning, Moore. That generates any number of really painful attack ads against any GOP opponent in any race.

That, of course, doesn't mean voters still won't vote the party line -- but as we're seeing in the last several elections there are more and more people who don't identify with a party and they are able to have their vote swayed. I think things are lot more up in the air than you'd think -- especially on the right. Normally it's the GOP that's been good at keep their party in line and moving as a unified block, but there is so much civil war in the party who knows what'll happen, or who will be primaried, or what drama unfolds before it even gets to a (R) vs (D) decision.

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If Trump fires Mueller

You cannot possibly think that would work as a positive for the GOP do you?

[lockedout]

There are plenty of red states that don't require a 30 point swing to win.

How many of those red states have representatives that are accused of being pedophiles?

[Lenonis]

How many of those red states have representatives that are accused of being pedophiles?

There are numerous elections that have shown that the 2016 margins that the GOP won with have eroded. Many of those margins are in the 5-10% range and thus vulnerable to the weakening of GOP support. The Moore situation was unique in that it was one of the largest gaps to close -- and yes, it took an extraordinary set of circumstances to cause Jones to win.

But no one is saying 2018 and 2020 is going to see the south turn blue. The Dems just need to pick up a few seats here and there in states and districts that are far more competitive to win back the house and to a lesser degree the senate.

If you want to ignore the danger, that's fine. Then we'll just get to point out how cocky you were just like the dems were in 2016. Can't help but enjoy seeing the GOP make the very same mistakes about ignoring the electorate that they accused the Dems of doing in 2016.

[lockedout]

There are numerous elections that have shown that the 2016 margins that the GOP won with have eroded. Many of those margins are in the 5-10% range and thus vulnerable to the weakening of GOP support. The Moore situation was unique in that it was one of the largest gaps to close -- and yes, it took an extraordinary set of circumstances to cause Jones to win.

But no one is saying 2018 and 2020 is going to see the south turn blue. The Dems just need to pick up a few seats here and there in states and districts that are far more competitive to win back the house and to a lesser degree the senate.

If you want to ignore the danger, that's fine. Then we'll just get to point out how cocky you were just like the dems were in 2016. Can't help but enjoy seeing the GOP make the very same mistakes about ignoring the electorate that they accused the Dems of doing in 2016.

Well I agree that republicans will most likely lose a lot of what they won. I just wouldn't look at THIS win as anything due to the factors at play.

[LaserSharkDFB]

Well I agree that republicans will most likely lose a lot of what they won. I just wouldn't look at THIS win as anything due to the factors at play.

On the other hand, Trump and any Republican who didn't denounce Moore are now on record as supporting that pedophile. Democrats can use that against the GOP Brand for the near future.

[lockedout]

On the other hand, Trump and any Republican who didn't denounce Moore are now on record as supporting that pedophile. Democrats can use that against the GOP Brand for the near future.

Yeah that won't do much if anything at all.

[ipaq]

Yeah that won't do much if anything at all.

For more than a year, you got a whole party lying their asses off on in public, you have TV network lying their asses off, you even have a president lying his ass off.

And yet the US electorate are applauding it.

Can't fix stupid. Just have to wait them out.

[Lenonis]

Well I agree that republicans will most likely lose a lot of what they won. I just wouldn't look at THIS win as anything due to the factors at play.

The point most people are making is that the Moore loss is just another data point in a series that doesn't look good for the GOP. I don't think people are looking at it in isolation.

[Zaydin]

Yeah that won't do much if anything at all.

So the fact that a Democrat won in deep red Alabama isn't an event of significance?

[Xeones]

So the fact that a Democrat won in deep red Alabama isn't an event of significance?

As long as you don't take it to think you'll be seeing Kansas or Oklahoma going blue without another "uniquely" horrific candidate.

[Zaydin]

As long as you don't take it to think you'll be seeing Kansas or Oklahoma going blue without another "uniquely" horrific candidate.

Just a reminder that Trumps approval rating in deep red Alabama is 48% right now. Above the national average, sure, but still underwater in one of the reddest states in the country.

[Omega10]

The dems won't let voters forget about him. It would be far worse if Moore was actually elected, but the GOP decided in the end to fully back, both financially and via campaigning, Moore. That generates any number of really painful attack ads against any GOP opponent in any race.

That, of course, doesn't mean voters still won't vote the party line -- but as we're seeing in the last several elections there are more and more people who don't identify with a party and they are able to have their vote swayed. I think things are lot more up in the air than you'd think -- especially on the right. Normally it's the GOP that's been good at keep their party in line and moving as a unified block, but there is so much civil war in the party who knows what'll happen, or who will be primaried, or what drama unfolds before it even gets to a (R) vs (D) decision.

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You cannot possibly think that would work as a positive for the GOP do you?

Actually I very much do. It will neutralize a negative. And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.

His supporters are 100% behind him, and he only needs republicans to have a decent approval rate on one day next year for next year to be a success for them. Republicans do not need anyone to vote FOR republicans due to him firing Mueller, they just need not too many people to flock to the polls AGAINST them due to firing Mueller. And I think there is a decent chance this will come to fruition.

[Orbitus]

Actually I very much do. It will neutralize a negative. And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.

His supporters are 100% behind him, and he only needs republicans to have a decent approval rate on one day next year for next year to be a success for them. Republicans do not need anyone to vote FOR republicans due to him firing Mueller, they just need not too many people to flock to the polls AGAINST them due to firing Mueller. And I think there is a decent chance this will come to fruition.

His supporters are dwindling. He is down to what? 32%?

[Lenonis]

Actually I very much do. It will neutralize a negative. And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.

His supporters are 100% behind him, and he only needs republicans to have a decent approval rate on one day next year for next year to be a success for them. Republicans do not need anyone to vote FOR republicans due to him firing Mueller, they just need not too many people to flock to the polls AGAINST them due to firing Mueller. And I think there is a decent chance this will come to fruition.

Your entire theory is based on Trump being able to be re-elected with just his base. He can't. There aren't enough of them.

Yes, him firing Mueller will help with his base (which, btw is not the entirety of the GOP base so we're talking a subset of a subset of the voters). Meanwhile it will encourage turnout among independents and democrats who will likely bury Trump and the GOP in 2018.

I mean...you did see what happened in Alabama right?

[Omega10]

Your entire theory is based on Trump being able to be re-elected with just his base. He can't. There aren't enough of them.

Yes, him firing Mueller will help with his base (which, btw is not the entirety of the GOP base so we're talking a subset of a subset of the voters). Meanwhile it will encourage turnout among independents and democrats who will likely bury Trump and the GOP in 2018.

I mean...you did see what happened in Alabama right?

I DID see what happened in Alabama. And I REALLY REALLY hope that similar things happen in November and that both the Senate and the House become blue, and that enough state seats flip for democrats to prevent the gerrymandering of the last decade from being extended another decade.

But that is a year away. And I also remember what happened a year ago November.

[Lenonis]

I DID see what happened in Alabama. And I REALLY REALLY hope that similar things happen in November and that both the Senate and the House become blue, and that enough state seats flip for democrats to prevent the gerrymandering of the last decade from being extended another decade.

But that is a year away. And I also remember what happened a year ago November.

Right -- not sure which thread I posted in but I did say that a year is a long time in political terms. And anything can really happen. However if we assume more-or-less status quo then Trump's popularity (or lack thereof) is not a plus for the GOP. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if some GOP candidates run on a soft anti-Trump platform in purple states.

[Daelak]

Actually I very much do. It will neutralize a negative. And if he campaigns well throughout all of 2018, or most of it, which he is talking about doing, the sheer amount of feel good stories about his enthusiastic crowds shouting out praise and admiration for him will drown out any memories of the Mueller investigation.

His supporters are 100% behind him, and he only needs republicans to have a decent approval rate on one day next year for next year to be a success for them. Republicans do not need anyone to vote FOR republicans due to him firing Mueller, they just need not too many people to flock to the polls AGAINST them due to firing Mueller. And I think there is a decent chance this will come to fruition.

What historically happens in mid-term years is the party in power's faithful do not show up to vote due to apathy or snubbing their nose at perceived lack of progress made for their agenda. Republicans now will be up against the historical trend and having the most unpopular sitting president who is being investigated for criminal conspiracy with a hostile foreign adversary. I don't even think the Trump faithful will come out in droves.