2018-2019 NFL Thread

[Grube]

The Jets either think the Browns and Giants aren't taking a QB in the 1st 2 picks, or they are fine with any of their top 3 and needed to move past teams that might not even take a QB to make sure they get one.

I'm not sure if the Bills will even move up. They have to be sure they are sold enough on one of the 4 QBs (history shows only 0-2 of that group will work out outside of 83 and 04) to do it. If they aren't, they are better off taking one of the next tier guys (Rudolph/Falk/Lauletta) later on. Really the Cardinals need to trade up more, because Bradford won't last very long before getting hurt again.

[xskarma]

The Jets either think the Browns and Giants aren't taking a QB in the 1st 2 picks, or they are fine with any of their top 3 and needed to move past teams that might not even take a QB to make sure they get one.

I'm not sure if the Bills will even move up. They have to be sure they are sold enough on one of the 4 QBs (history shows only 0-2 of that group will work out outside of 83 and 04) to do it. If they aren't, they are better off taking one of the next tier guys (Rudolph/Falk/Lauletta) later on. Really the Cardinals need to trade up more, because Bradford won't last very long before getting hurt again.

There's no way the Bills moved up to 12 for anything but a QB. I'm sure stories will be coming out about it soon enough, but I think they lost the battle for the 3rd pick to the Jets and are now in trouble. Unless the Bills know 100% sure that the QB they want will still be available after the Browns, Giants and Jets have picked they will have to convince one of those teams to give up their spot and with the Colts spot gone, that is getting increasingly hard.

[eschatological]

We *have* to move up. At this rate, Lamar Jackson will be gone at #12 too. A few things for sure now:

1) Cleveland has to pick a QB at #1, no more talk about Barkley. You could have maybe risked it if 2 and 3 weren't going to pick QBs, but now 3 definitely is and possibly even 2, and QB hungry teams will be gunning for #2 if you pick up Barkley at #1.

2) QBs can easily go at 1, 3, 5, possibly 2, possibly 11. That'd be 5 off the board before they get to the Bills, and that's assuming no one trades up into those meaty 7-10 spots, which Arizona will definitely be gunning for, and possibly teams like Baltimore and SD and maybe even NO.

3) The Bills have to gun for 2. David Gettleman, the Giants GM, is old friends with Brandon Beane, the Bills GM (Beane was his AGM at Carolina). The problem is convincing the Giants they want to fall all the way to 12. They have to settle it sooner than later. Beane has been throwing up smoke screens, making it "deliberately known" they're going for Allen (they're not), and on Friday saying he might be content at 12, and maybe not even drafting a QB in the 1st round. If that's true, that's asinine fucking nonsense. Especially considering Beane said when he got here that the most important piece is the QB, and he was pretty much brought here to get a QB. Not to mention all of last year's draft was about stockpiling to get a QB.

4) I cannot believe the price of that #3 pick. The Bills have 2 2nd round picks too, I would have given the 2 1sts, the 2 2nds, and possibly the future 2nd as well to get that #3 pick. I can't believe the Bills didn't offer a competitive price for that.

5) What's the price to move down 10 spots? I think the feeling in Buffalo is anything but next year's 1st. We have 5 picks in the first 65, I think if that's what it takes, give it up. I cannot watch the Jets have a franchise QB for the next decade in my division.

- - - Updated - - -

You also have to wonder why the Jets just didn't jump up to 2. I'm hoping Gettleman has a gentleman's agreement with Beane at this point, or something.

The problem is that the Jets price sets the baseline for the price on the #2 pick. It's no coincidence that the Jets made this trade like a day after Rosen's pro day.

[xskarma]

We *have* to move up. At this rate, Lamar Jackson will be gone at #12 too. A few things for sure now:

1) Cleveland has to pick a QB at #1, no more talk about Barkley. You could have maybe risked it if 2 and 3 weren't going to pick QBs, but now 3 definitely is and possibly even 2, and QB hungry teams will be gunning for #2 if you pick up Barkley at #1.

2) QBs can easily go at 1, 3, 5, possibly 2, possibly 11. That'd be 5 off the board before they get to the Bills, and that's assuming no one trades up into those meaty 7-10 spots, which Arizona will definitely be gunning for, and possibly teams like Baltimore and SD and maybe even NO.

3) The Bills have to gun for 2. David Gettleman, the Giants GM, is old friends with Brandon Beane, the Bills GM (Beane was his AGM at Carolina). The problem is convincing the Giants they want to fall all the way to 12. They have to settle it sooner than later. Beane has been throwing up smoke screens, making it "deliberately known" they're going for Allen (they're not), and on Friday saying he might be content at 12, and maybe not even drafting a QB in the 1st round. If that's true, that's asinine fucking nonsense. Especially considering Beane said when he got here that the most important piece is the QB, and he was pretty much brought here to get a QB. Not to mention all of last year's draft was about stockpiling to get a QB.

4) I cannot believe the price of that #3 pick. The Bills have 2 2nd round picks too, I would have given the 2 1sts, the 2 2nds, and possibly the future 2nd as well to get that #3 pick. I can't believe the Bills didn't offer a competitive price for that.

5) What's the price to move down 10 spots? I think the feeling in Buffalo is anything but next year's 1st. We have 5 picks in the first 65, I think if that's what it takes, give it up. I cannot watch the Jets have a franchise QB for the next decade in my division.

I agree, the Bills seem to have made a critical error. They moved up to 12, making clear their intentions to move up further (probably to no. 3), then took too long to negotiate about that no. 3 pick or didn't offer enough compared to the Jets and got sniped.

Whatever happens, the Bills will now either pick after at least 3 teams have picked a QB OR they end up paying more to move up even further then no. 3.


There's one silver lining though. IF they can convince the Giants to trade the no. 2 to them, then they end up in front of the Jets. Which would mean that if they had traded for 3 and someone else had traded for 2, that they would have had to sweat it out that they get the guy they want. That's now probably not going to happen.

But yeah, only option now is to trade for the no. 2 pick.

I cannot watch the Jets have a franchise QB for the next decade in my division.

That is the darkest time line. Pls no.

[dwightyo39]

Or maybe the Bills don't like any of the qbs enough to trade for a top 3 pick. The sports media does a good job of hyping them up to the point where fans assume this is a redo of the 1983 draft.

[eschatological]

Dwight, I know you're a long time Bills fan, I am too. QB is the position that matters. Last year shows we can cobble together any sort of bullshit at other positions and make the playoffs if coached well, but QB is the next step. Don't let the Foles/Keenum/Bortles thing fool you, there's only been 2 Super Bowls in the past 18 years where the AFC wasn't repped by one of three guys: Brady, Roethlisberger, or Manning.

Keep in mind, the '83 draft didn't look that great before they were drafted either. Both Kelly and Marino had sub-60% completion percentages, Elway had about a 62%. This is the deepest QB class since '04 at the very least, and maybe '83, and the tools to evaluate these guys are the best they've ever been. There hasn't been a top 5 bust on QBs since Mark Sanchez, and nobody but the Jets thought he was going to be good, and then JaMarcus Russell they year before him, which everyone but the Raiders knew was going to be a bust. Those two picks were 10 years ago, and analytics have gone crazy since then. The "worst" QB taken since then in the top 5 is probably Jameis Winston, and I'd love to have Winston on my team right about now.

[dwightyo39]

Well if the class is that deep, and guaranteed to be good, the Bills didn't need to trade up to 3 for their next Jim Kelly anyway.

[Deleted]

RG III was a bust. People can argue if the injury caused it or just accelerated it. On the other hand guys taken in the third and fourth round proved to be franchise caliber. If QB analytics were a sure thing, these guys would have been snagged earlier.

[Grube]

I was thinking the Bills were at 21 and 22 still for some reason. Really only the Browns and Jets are for sure taking a QB early. Denver is an unlikely, and Giants/Dolphins are maybe. If the Giants stay 2 and don't go QB, and Browns keep the 4, the Bills only need to move up to 5 to get one of the QBs for sure. Well unless the Browns take 2 QBs, which I would not put past them.

Going back to 2009-2014 (2015-2017 classes are too soon to judge), only 1 of the 7 QBs picked in the top 5 is consistently good. The others either have issues staying healthy, the most inconsistent QB in the league, or Blake Bortles. If you want to include the 2015 group you have more injured or inconsistent QBs.

[eschatological]

Well if the class is that deep, and guaranteed to be good, the Bills didn't need to trade up to 3 for their next Jim Kelly anyway.

Except unlike in '83 when the run game was dominant, this is now a passing league. Dan Marino would not fall to 27 in this year. We're looking at potentially 4 QBs in the top 5 picks right now.


RG3 was Rookie of the Year. He got injured, and that's not something you can really account for in terms of bust status. Outside of Brady and Russell Wilson (undervalued because of his size, which isn't happening to Mayfield this year), who're the franchise QBs taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds? Here's a list of the 2017 starters and the rounds they went in:

Arizona: Carson Palmer, 1st round (1st overall)
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, 1st round, (2nd overall)
Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco, 1st round, (18th overall)
Buffalo Bills: Tyrod Taylor, 5th round (180 overall)
Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, 1st round (1st overall)
Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, 1st round (2nd overall)
Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton, 2nd round, (35th overall)
Cleveland Browns: DeShone Kizer, 2nd round (52nd overall)
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott, 4th round, (135th overall)
Denver Broncos: Who do you want to list here? Simien was a 7th round pick, Osweiller a 2nd round pick who played 2 games and is considered a bust, or Paxton Lynch, 1st round (26th overall).
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, 1st round (1st overall)
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers, 1st round (24th overall)
Houston Texans: DeShaun Watson, 1st round (12th overall)
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, 1st round (1st overall)
Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles, 1st round (3rd overall)
Kansas City Chiefs: Alex Smith, 1st round, (1st overall), their new starter Patrick Maholmes is a 1st rounders (10th overall).
Los Angeles Chargers: Philip Rivers, 1st round (4th overall)
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, 1st round (1st overall)
Miami Dolphins: Played most of their year with Jay Cutler, 1st round (11th overall), but their presumed starter is Tannehill, 1st round (8th overall)
Minnesota Vikings: Case Keenum, undrafted
New England Patriots: Tom Brady, 6th round (199th overall)
New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees, 1st round (32nd overall)
New York Giants: Eli Manning, 1st round, (1st overall)
New York Jets: Josh McCown, 3rd round, (81st overall)
Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr, 2nd round, (36th overall)
Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, 1st round (2nd overall)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st round (18th overall)
San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo, 2nd round (62nd overall)
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson, 3rd round (75th overall)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, 1st round (1st overall)
Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota, 1st round (2nd overall)
Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins, 3rd round (103rd overall), not even the first QB the Redskins took in that draft

Of the 32 teams in the NFL, 7 teams have a starter from outside the first two rounds: of those 7, the only "franchise QB" worthy ones are Kirk Cousins (who can't even get his team to the playoffs by himself cause he's not that great), Rusell Wilson, Tom Brady, maybe Dak Prescott (ask Dallas fans how they feel about him after this past year).

It's a QB league, and QBs are taken high.

[eschatological]

Holy crap they gave up a lot. As a Giants fan I wish we had taken that deal, we could have drafted a new left tackle in round one then fixed the rest of our line in round 2.

Don't worry, we'll give you two firsts and a whole shitton more for the 2nd spot.

[eschatological]

Eli is a weird case in that he was the younger brother of a QB who, even only 6 years into his career, seemed destined for the HoF. In spite of Eli's performance, the dude has won 2 Super Bowls, which is more Super Bowls in the past 20 years than anyone other than Brady, and ties him with his brother and Big Ben. I don't think Eli's unique situation (of being that subpar but staying in) has happened elsewhere. Hell, we've drafted a first round QB in EJ Manuel, it didn't work out.

Nevertheless, Eli was a 1st round pick.

Plus, the rookie CBA has changed a lot since then. Eli signed huge contracts, but that changed after I believe Stafford's rookie deal. It makes it easier to move on from 1st round picks. There's literally no downside to drafting QBs high now because you only pay them a few million for 4-5 years now.

[xskarma]

"Source: Patriots free agent Matthew Slater, a seven-time Pro Bowl special teamer, is in Pittsburgh visiting the Steelers today. Intrigue amongst top AFC teams."

lol, they want to sign him as pay back fro Harrison I bet. Well good luck Steelers. He's a great person and a team leader and he would be a much bigger loss to the Patriots then he would ever be a gain to the Steelers, but don;t think for 1 second that Belichick would not replace him with some other guy and have Patriots special teams continue to tick like clockwork.

I hope he comes back though. Slater is probably one of the best all round people the Patriots have on the roster.

[Deleted]

Dak - correct in your list - and Cousins were 4th rounders.

Apart from that I agree, QBs have obviously the best risk - reward ratio as a top pick and the new rookie CBA has made it even more tempting to gamble on rookies vs rely on veteran signings. On the other hand, and that's the Bills situation, trading up and investing multiple valuable draft picks and still not getting the draft's best talent on the position is a much bigger gamble.

[eschatological]

I'll be content with Rosen at 2 if the Browns want to take Darnold at 1. Still don't know why Darnold is considered better than Rosen in most circles.

[dwightyo39]

Well according to the Bills message boards all hope is lost. The sky is falling. If they don't have a pick in the top 3, the team needs to disband, and the city of Buffalo should be nuked from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

[Grube]

For the Bills specifically, if they can't move up to 2 and only like 1-2 of the QBs, would it really be worth moving up for one they don't really want over taking Rudolph with their 22nd pick? Taking a 2nd round QB later in the 1st makes sense because of the 5th year option. There is going to be a really good player still there at 12 anyway, so moving up from 21 wouldn't be completely wasted.

[dwightyo39]

For the Bills specifically, if they can't move up to 2 and only like 1-2 of the QBs, would it really be worth moving up for one they don't really want over taking Rudolph with their 22nd pick? Taking a 2nd round QB later in the 1st makes sense because of the 5th year option. There is going to be a really good player still there at 12 anyway, so moving up from 21 wouldn't be completely wasted.

There is also the misconception that they gave up a lot to move up to 12. They didnt. They traded a tackle who is injured more often than not. They already had a replacement tackle on the team.

[eschatological]

Rudolph had literally one of the worst combines in QB history. I wouldn't take him earlier than mid-2nd.

[Espo]

I'm still saying the Browns take Barkley #1. I just don't understand the appeal of any of these QBs. Call me contrarian, or maybe I just can't see something everyone else can. All 4 of those QBs look like absolute shit. They all have significant flaws whether it be mechanical or character issues. The only one of them to even remotely come to play in big games was Mayfield, and he comes with a host of issues.

I know QBs are at a premium, but I don't understand reaching for ones who just aren't the right choice. This isn't reaching for proven guys. This is reaching for what looks to be a really small chance that one of those guys will be good. I just don't get it. I get the Eagles moving up to take Wentz. I get the Rams moving up to take Goff. But I don't understand it this year.

On the Bills topic: I hope, for their sake, they can't move up for one of those guys. Let the rest of the league save the Bills from themselves. It isn't worth it.