1. #2661
    Quote Originally Posted by Captain N View Post
    I know its still very early but seeing the Dow jump 700 points after an announcement of 3.28 million people filing for unemployment leads me to believe that the stock market isn't indicative of the US Economy as a whole.
    They got their millions and billions so of course they're giddy about it AND many of those businesses will get rid of employees anyways on top of it.

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  2. #2662
    Quote Originally Posted by Dontrike View Post
    They got their millions and billions so of course they're giddy about it AND many of those businesses will get rid of employees anyways on top of it.
    Oh its expected. My former employer just put out a memo that in addition to the 3000 employees it had scheduled to furlough this year an additional 2000 will also be furloughed due to "unexpected decline in freight volumes".

    In a nutshell for the Chicagoland Area that means every employee with a seniority date of 2009 or below is going to end up out of a job by the end of the year.
    “You're not to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it or says it.”― Malcolm X

  3. #2663
    Merely a Setback Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain N View Post
    I know its still very early but seeing the Dow jump 700 points after an announcement of 3.28 million people filing for unemployment leads me to believe that the stock market isn't indicative of the US Economy as a whole.
    Oh, it isn't. Remember, the stock market is a predictive force of how the companies in question will do. They're getting massive bailouts.

    From the looks of things, individuals will get that unemployment boost, so hopefully, they'll be okay, too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain N View Post
    Oh its expected. My former employer just put out a memo that in addition to the 3000 employees it had scheduled to furlough this year an additional 2000 will also be furloughed due to "unexpected decline in freight volumes"..
    Yeah, and some people have already posted about salary cuts. I expect those to get more aggressive now. Remember, if your boss cuts your salary, and you quit in protest, you lose unemployment.

    No-one is above the law.

  4. #2664
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Yeah, and some people have already posted about salary cuts. I expect those to get more aggressive now. Remember, if your boss cuts your salary, and you quit in protest, you lose unemployment.
    The problem with that employer though is that they'll consider a furloughed employee at the cusp of being called back to work a "Zero Hour Employee" meaning that their status is temporary and they'll be getting some type of work in the next 30 days. It used to be a call board that gave them 2 days a week so they could maintain their benefits, but that was before the Company went total shit heel and stocked its Executive Board with hedge fund managers. Now its just used so they can legally claim that the employee isn't unemployed...he's just "temporarily" out of work making them ineligible for unemployment benefits.

    I would not doubt that this system is in place in other workplaces as well.
    “You're not to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it or says it.”― Malcolm X

  5. #2665
    Merely a Setback Breccia's Avatar
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    No-one is above the law.

  6. #2666
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post

    I am risking that tomorrows report won't be as bad as we think. Next week numbers however might hit the numbers they are talking about.

    Welp nothing like waking up to a horrible prediction....Shocked the market is taking that number so well.
    I just wonder how much of this is a short term panic buying that is going to crash hard soon again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain N View Post
    I know its still very early but seeing the Dow jump 700 points after an announcement of 3.28 million people filing for unemployment leads me to believe that the stock market isn't indicative of the US Economy as a whole.
    well short term those 3.3 million people will still get receiving at least one more check from their employer, severance pay and then unemployment. By the start of people not being able to pay bills they will get the govt check.

    So the stock market is looking at short term quick gains and the sheep follow


    The next big thing after employment is 401k's being tapped for regular living expenses. Outflows from funds will cause a huge liquidity problem if unemployment 's are bad for a couple weeks. Means massive selling on the market over the long term till people get back to work.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaelleria View Post
    3.3m


    Didn't Texas and Ohio not submit their numbers at Trump's behest.
    they were just hiding their normal public daily and weekly releases at the state level.
    they still reported to the feds to be included in the final number.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Incidentally, this will spike unemployment by several percent. I don't actually have the numbers or coffee to work with...just kidding. BLS keeps the numbers and I never run out of coffee, motherfucker.

    The last listed month had 158,759,000 employed people. Also, BLS says unemployment was 3.5%. Simple algebra says that means there were 164,517,098 total employable people, give or take a Hoboken, and 5,758,098 of them were out of work.

    Add those 3.25 million.

    Unemployment is now 5.5 percent. That's higher than Nov 2016. For now, at least, Trump has lost everything that he bragged about gaining in unemployment.

    t.
    Good work!!! You are about spot on in your numbers.
    Based on the first 3 full days of this week, 5.5% is amazing to what its going to be next week and the week after.
    He has a chance of undoing Obama's whole second term @7.7% by next week



    BLS also has the full employment numbers too so you don't have to guess on workforce for next week, cause MAFF is Hards!

    https://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm

    https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm - Choose - Civilian labor force adjusted

    Labor force Feb = 164,546,000 (so you were close)!!!

    Feb unemployed # = 5,787,000

    Today # = 3,283,000


    https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    . I don't actually have the numbers or coffee to work with...just kidding. …. and I never run out of coffee, motherfucker.

    .
    did you stock up on coffee like everyone else did with TP?

    I happen to have 4 Dunkin gift cards from Christmas....spent it all on about 11 lbs of coffee last week, as I saw coffee start to fly off the shelves! Got a 12 pack of gigantic drums of creamer and 8lbs of sugar!!

    I am ready to finish digging the bunker now!!
    Whether SHE IS INDICTED OR EVEN GUILTY IT DOESNT MATTER. HER GUILT IS A MOOT POINT!!! - Fox News 2016
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  7. #2667
    Merely a Setback Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    did you stock up on coffee like everyone else did with TP?
    Well, yes and no. By coincidence I had just picked up two new pounds from two sources to test. That's above and beyond my normal supply. That was pure luck, especially with places like Starbucks and local places shutting down.

    On that topic, I'm sure Starbucks' stock is the same as most places. It, too, took a nose-dive right around the time Trump said everything was bigly and yuge and perfect. But unlike a lot of restaurants, they were pre-diversified. In particular, pounds of beans and instant should keep them from turning to dust like Cheesecake Factory or Waffle House. Quite frankly, those that close might never re-open.

    Personal info is not evidence, but, when Katrina hit New Orleans, two of my favorite restaurants on the planet were affected. One never came back.

    No-one is above the law.

  8. #2668
    Rather than looking at total numbers of unemployment benefit claims, it is interesting to see total claims per 1,000 workers. Some interesting observations.

    I understand why NV is so high, but why are MT, ND, PA so high? Also, since tourism employment account for a large chunk of FL workforce, why is their’s only 7? That does not make sense. NY is only 8?


  9. #2669
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Rather than looking at total numbers of unemployment benefit claims, it is interesting to see total claims per 1,000 workers. Some interesting observations.
    Florida might not have the issues since both Disney World and Universal Studios have commented that they will continue to pay employees throughout the crisis. This includes people working in their resorts, restaurants, and kiosks in Disney Springs and Universal's Citywalk.
    “You're not to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it or says it.”― Malcolm X

  10. #2670
    Scarab Lord Poopymonster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Well, yes and no. By coincidence I had just picked up two new pounds from two sources to test. That's above and beyond my normal supply. That was pure luck, especially with places like Starbucks and local places shutting down.

    On that topic, I'm sure Starbucks' stock is the same as most places. It, too, took a nose-dive right around the time Trump said everything was bigly and yuge and perfect. But unlike a lot of restaurants, they were pre-diversified. In particular, pounds of beans and instant should keep them from turning to dust like Cheesecake Factory or Waffle House. Quite frankly, those that close might never re-open.

    Personal info is not evidence, but, when Katrina hit New Orleans, two of my favorite restaurants on the planet were affected. One never came back.
    ....I miss Waffle House.
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    Quit using other posters as levels of crazy. That is not ok

  11. #2671
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    *snip*
    I have thought on it, these are unemployed but not bankruptcies. So the jobs can come back in theory for all of them. Now if alot of companies say "we can't hold our breath anymore" and bow out. Then those jobs are truly gone. At that point I'd expect the market slide to return

  12. #2672
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Rather than looking at total numbers of unemployment benefit claims, it is interesting to see total claims per 1,000 workers. Some interesting observations.

    I understand why NV is so high, but why are MT, ND, PA so high? Also, since tourism employment account for a large chunk of FL workforce, why is their’s only 7? That does not make sense. NY is only 8?

    ND= oil oil and oil....and everything related to oil....shale...oil...did I mention oil yet?

    PA= they were more aggressive and faster pace of shutdown. Greater portion of hospitality and low wage workers then a lot of states?
    https://paworkstats.geosolinc.com/vo...fQRDmcU06QaUs=

    MT= Ya got me, I know nothing about that state. Nothing seems crazy in their labor #'s by industries.
    http://lmi.mt.gov/Industry/cesSector


    I would also gander it has to do with companies ability to continue to pay people while:
    -They are not working
    -Working from home

    I would bet these states have an abnormally high % of low-mid size companies vs big companies/corporations.

    Like NY has a shocking low number relative to what's going on and how many workers because many of them can work from home and the businesses are better financed to continue to pay people instead of lay them off right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain N View Post
    Florida might not have the issues since both Disney World and Universal Studios have commented that they will continue to pay employees throughout the crisis. This includes people working in their resorts, restaurants, and kiosks in Disney Springs and Universal's Citywalk.
    that is what I was just saying/thinking.

    For now…..

    for as much as people hate them the top 100 ish large corporations is the only thing that saved the unemployment number from being 6m+ this week.

    but it just kicks the can down the road to when unemployment checks get increased 2-3x what it is now as max and the 1200 dollar+ checks start going out.
    Companies will be more willing to lay people off because the blow back won't be as bad if people are getting all their money too

    I expect Disney specifically to layoff/furlough en'mass once they know people will get their full pay from the govt for 4 months.....

    that will be round two of unemployment spike
    You just need one of the majors to take the risk and be the first to get the ball rolling.
    Whether SHE IS INDICTED OR EVEN GUILTY IT DOESNT MATTER. HER GUILT IS A MOOT POINT!!! - Fox News 2016
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  13. #2673
    The more I hear about the "bailout" bill the worse it gets. At least it's a good thing they expanded reinsurance benefits.
    The worst part about the internet is that it let the truly crazy, racist, and bigots find each other easily.

  14. #2674
    The Lightbringer Zaydin's Avatar
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    I wonder how long this bubble of optimism from the markets will last. My guess is that things will crater when we get GDP numbers for the quarter and the job losses from the outbreak.
    "If you are ever asking yourself 'Is Trump lying or is he stupid?', the answer is most likely C: All of the Above" - Seth Meyers


  15. #2675
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post
    I wonder how long this bubble of optimism from the markets will last. My guess is that things will crater when we get GDP numbers for the quarter and the job losses from the outbreak.
    Till the big corporations stop paying people for not actually working
    and the april wish date comes and goes and we are still in the thick of things.

    there is a lot of profit makers trying to get in on this quick bump, its basically a reverse panic just like selling was now people are trying to get in before the quick money is gone
    Whether SHE IS INDICTED OR EVEN GUILTY IT DOESNT MATTER. HER GUILT IS A MOOT POINT!!! - Fox News 2016
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  16. #2676
    The Unstoppable Force Theodarzna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post
    I wonder how long this bubble of optimism from the markets will last. My guess is that things will crater when we get GDP numbers for the quarter and the job losses from the outbreak.
    Once April 1st hits and nobody can pay rent, mortgages, or any bills, I mean eventually someone MIGHT have to pay that stuff and right now with 3 million unemployment claims and rising, 30%? Unemployment generally (And that is the propaganda number that is meant to look good, not even REAL unemployment), 1200 dollars once being all the help that's coming and a disease spreading that is only JUST starting to kill people and has burned across the country through people who are asymptomatic for weeks; idk, I suspect after April 1st the 2nd crash comes as big or bigger than the first.

    Add in that the bodies will start to hit the floor in a big way by then and our shit tier Health Care "system" will be flat out overrun?
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
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  17. #2677
    plus, other than here, I havent heard about the 1200 being a glorified loan

    im guessing it that accurate, and becomes widely known, thats gonna hurt things too

  18. #2678
    Quote Originally Posted by D Luniz View Post
    plus, other than here, I havent heard about the 1200 being a glorified loan

    im guessing it that accurate, and becomes widely known, thats gonna hurt things too
    For people making too much money, yes.

    They want to make sure people who have worked this year also get the money but they will have to wait a year to get it.
    In return they also don't want to give money to people who really don't need it anymore than they need it based on their 2018,2019 income.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/everyth...navirus-ribbon


    The advance payments will be determined based on 2019 income—or 2018 income if that is all that is available to IRS—and the final amount of the benefits will be determined based on 2020 income and settled on the 2020 tax return.

    So people who ultimately qualify for more money than they receive this year—a person whose income drops from $100,000 to $70,000, for example—would get the rest through a larger tax refund or smaller tax payment in early 2021.

    But people who ultimately qualify for less money than they got this year—a person whose income rises from $70,000 to $100,000—wouldn’t have to pay it back.
    Whether SHE IS INDICTED OR EVEN GUILTY IT DOESNT MATTER. HER GUILT IS A MOOT POINT!!! - Fox News 2016
    You don’t have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this Constitutional Republic,” - Sen (r) Graham 1999

  19. #2679
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    *snip*
    And what do you think on my idea here as to why the markets are recovering so quickly?

  20. #2680
    Quote Originally Posted by D Luniz View Post
    I have thought on it, these are unemployed but not bankruptcies. So the jobs can come back in theory for all of them. Now if alot of companies say "we can't hold our breath anymore" and bow out. Then those jobs are truly gone. At that point I'd expect the market slide to return
    in 2008-2009 there were a relativly low amount of bankrupt companies in the first few months (took a while to get to small and medium companies) but layoffs went banana's in a rush to save money and prop up stocks.

    The problem is a lot of small and medium size companies will run out of money shortly to keep their businesses open. They will lead the charge this time in layoffs and bankruptcy not corporations.

    In return they will cause a slow roll in the bigger corporations as they decide they don't have the desire to keep paying people for not being at work.
    it was good press for the first few weeks, now its just cash burning in the backyard. They are starting with furloughs and pay cuts, its going to snowball into big layoffs.

    That's why people have to stop calling this bill a "bailout", its not (except maybe for boeing). They are loans to keep paying their employees. They are going to have to pay them back eventually.

    Disney is not going to borrow 10 billion dollars to pay people for 10-16 weeks to do nothing when they can furlough them and just bring them back when it done and make the govt shoulder the cost of paying these people's salaries for 10-16 weeks.

    That is the only real bailout, even then its not really a bailout because layoffs and unemployment have been around forever if that was the case then we've been bailing them out for decades.

    However, we should raise the amount employers have to pay in unemployment taxes so that the system is solvent for situations like this.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by D Luniz View Post
    I have thought on it, these are unemployed but not bankruptcies. So the jobs can come back in theory for all of them. Now if alot of companies say "we can't hold our breath anymore" and bow out. Then those jobs are truly gone. At that point I'd expect the market slide to return
    if i had my guess its just....


    people grabbing a quick profit on the bounce, it always happens in a bear market. very few bear markets hold the impending 10% bounce they all seem to end up having before another huge drop. not always, but almost.

    Rebalancing by funds, forced to by their own "investment rules" to buy stocks when they become disconnected with the index they are tracking. Trillion dollar fund managers causing whole industry shifts because of their "automatic investments"

    Gamblers....nuff said.
    Whether SHE IS INDICTED OR EVEN GUILTY IT DOESNT MATTER. HER GUILT IS A MOOT POINT!!! - Fox News 2016
    You don’t have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this Constitutional Republic,” - Sen (r) Graham 1999

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