Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Felya]

Claiming that I am saying it's a conspiracy doesn't mean I'm saying it's a conspiracy.

No, saying they are putting on a show, is a conspiracy.

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Probably just impossible, as long as the minimum number of hands needed to skin and gut a carcass is greater than two.

I don’t think you know what you are talking about:

[Nadiru]

Not even you believe that. You do not believe that closing the plant Friday through Monday for a deep cleaning is the standard.

It's not standard, but its also a difference of degree, not of like.

No, saying they are putting on a show, is a conspiracy.


I don’t think you know what you are talking about:

The "show" is supplied by the news agency, in this case. Which isn't conspiratorial, it's what the media does. Also, a video showing that pigs (less than 25% of the size of a steer) need 4 people just to gut it, isn't really the W you think it is.

[Breccia]

*ahem*

That news article makes zero implications or statements saying that deep cleaning is not standard.

Several posts later:

It's not standard

This conversation is over. Please post constructively.

Hey @Zan15 those DOW futures like kind of low. Any honest conversation on the thread's topic?

[Nadiru]

*ahem*



Several posts later:



This conversation is over. Please post constructively.

Hey @Zan15 those DOW futures like kind of low. Any honest conversation on the thread's topic?

This cleaning wasn't standard, is what I'm saying. Meatpacking plants do routinely get deep cleaning every couple of weeks, however.

[Felya]

The "show" is supplied by the news agency, in this case. Which isn't conspiratorial, it's what the media does.

No, that’s a national conspiracy of news hiding the truth.

Also, a video showing that pigs (less than 25% of the size of a steer) need 4 people just to gut it, isn't really the W you think it is.

How many people and how close were they standing, during the roping? The kill shot? The burning? The packing? The blood letting?

[Nadiru]

No, that’s a national conspiracy of news hiding the truth.



How many people and how close were they standing, during the roping? The kill shot? The burning? The packing? The blood letting?

That's not even remotely what I'm getting at. The news isn't hiding the truth, at least not in this case. And not that many people were at every station, which is great: You can implement social distancing in those places. But not in all of the line, which was my point. And furthermore, if there's risk at any point along the line it jeopardizes the entire plant.

[Breccia]

Nearly 900 employees, 40 percent of the workforce, at a Tyson Foods pork-processing plant in Indiana have tested positive for the coronavirus.

The plant in Logansport halted operations April 25, one of several Tyson plants across the country that have voluntarily closed in an effort to help contain the spread of the virus.

The Cass County Health Department's administrator, Serenity Alter, said 890 employees at the plant have tested positive so far, and that a couple of hundred of others still need to be screened.

Hli Yang, a spokeswoman for the company, said the Logansport plant employs 2,200 people. She declined to confirm the number who have tested positive for the virus.

"Since this is an ever-changing situation, we are not disclosing the number of confirmed cases associated with a plant," she told NBC News.

Hmm. Not disclosing the numbers because the numbers keep changing is a novel tactic. I wonder what else it could be used for? "I just told the IRS that we wouldn't pay taxes, because our income kept changing throughout the year."

The plant recently made some changes and took state and local health officials on a tour. But I guess being closed over a week and allowing such an inspection is also standard?

[Dontrike]

The fines they get for this shit is a pittance. If I cut corners to save X dollars a month, I get caught once maybe twice every few years and pay a fine that may not even be X and promise pretty please I'll never do it again. Which makes it profitable to ignore silly things like that. Workers are a dime a dozen.

Off topic, want to make fines mean something? X% of that company/plant/persons income. Gross income.

The closing and the fine is probably going to be more than what they would like when it comes to it. My point is there's no reason to take the hit to begin with anyways. It definitely would have been cheaper to take the precautions than not. In this scenario it definitely cost them more money from not taking precautions than taking them would have.

[Poopymonster]

The closing and the fine is probably going to be more than what they would like when it comes to it. My point is there's no reason to take the hit to begin with anyways. It definitely would have been cheaper to take the precautions than not. In this scenario it definitely cost them more money from not taking precautions than taking them would have.

In this instance it may cost them more. How often do these circumstances happen though? Why spend the money on the precautions when it's unlikely to be needed? "Will it happen this year? Probably not? I hear money!"

I agree they SHOULD have been taking precautions since the get go. But it's only their workers. It's a feature, not a bug, in Capitalism.

[Breccia]

The headline of this CNN article, now admitted real news by everyone on these forums, is Tariffs could be back in play. That's bad news for shaky markets

Trump is basically attacking Phase One by way of blaming China for the tens of thousands of deaths at his feet. The thing is, even if he was right, blaming China for tens of thousands of deaths while trying to make a trade deal with China isn't going to work.

The same article also says J.Crew, Neiman Marcus and J.C. Penney are all in trouble.

[Felya]

10 min to open... futures down 250.

[Breccia]

10 min to open... futures down 250.

That's actually up from the last time I looked, it was around -350 or so when I called out Zan15. I've heard no good news about oil, I've seen bad things about retail and of course the second Trump adds more tariffs on China -- even if he has a good reason -- the market drops.

[Thepersona]

That's actually up from the last time I looked, it was around -350 or so when I called out Zan15. I've heard no good news about oil, I've seen bad things about retail and of course the second Trump adds more tariffs on China -- even if he has a good reason -- the market drops.

I'm still amazed on how the market isnt crashing and burning, since we have 15-20% (!) unemployment at this point.

[Lenonis]

I'm still amazed on how the market isnt crashing and burning, since we have 15-20% (!) unemployment at this point.

I'm guessing because markets are predictive in nature -- and many of these job losses are temporary. And given the political pressure to overrule the medical experts and open up everything ASAP they are taking into account that the jobs are likely to coming back sooner rather than later.

I'd balance that with a lot of large companies that drive the market being able to operate in this environment without too much of a problem. The mom and pop shops are getting smacked around but they aren't part of the stock market directly.

Maybe someone with more expertise can give info but that's my guess as to why the market isn't even further down.

[Thepersona]

I'm guessing because markets are predictive in nature -- and many of these job losses are temporary. And given the political pressure to overrule the medical experts and open up everything ASAP they are taking into account that the jobs are likely to coming back sooner rather than later.

I'd balance that with a lot of large companies that drive the market being able to operate in this environment without too much of a problem. The mom and pop shops are getting smacked around but they aren't part of the stock market directly.

Maybe someone with more expertise can give info but that's my guess as to why the market isn't even further down.

Yeah, but they dont seem to understand that when the second wave hits in late may/early june, the economy will shut down again.
Doing shit hastily because of greed is not good for them in the mid term.

[Lenonis]

Yeah, but they dont seem to understand that when the second wave hits in late may/early june, the economy will shut down again.
Doing shit hastily because of greed is not good for them in the mid term.

Yeah, I'm actually responsible at my company for the budget of the work I cover which is including making some decisions about live events in Q4 and it's a nightmare to try to figure out what the best approach is. The common consensus is basically until we have a vaccine or truly on-demand rapid testing big in person events are a thing of the past. There is some guidance going around that there won't be international travel until Q2 2021 at the earliest.

I do suspect that market is being overly optimistic. I've seen quite a few articles with the same speculation. There is a lot of gambling being done on the viability of a vaccine early. I also think the market isn't taking into account that even when restrictions are lifted people may be too scared to get on a plane still, and travel and tourism is still going to be way down for quite some time.

[Rasulis]

I'm still amazed on how the market isnt crashing and burning, since we have 15-20% (!) unemployment at this point.

Right now we have two parallel economies. Some sectors are doing badly, some are doing okay and some are, based on last week quarterly reports, doing great even under normal circumstances.



The market cap of the sectors of that did badly is so low now that they could lose another 50% of their market cap and they would barely affect the market overall value. Most energy companies, with exception of Chevron, are -90% to -50% YTD right now. Airlines around -30% - 70% YTD. Cruise, manufacturing, etc. are about the same. If S&P 500 index does not have to maintain a market wide representation, the bottom 100 companies would have been kicked off the index.

The market is now highly concentrated in a few companies at the top. I mentioned before that Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google are 22% of the S&P 500 and around 18% of the entire US stock market. Which are good and bad at the same time. It is good because it kept the market stable. Large drops would require large drops in the stocks of these companies. Which does not appear likely based on their last reports. The bad part is that it would be very hard for these companies’ stocks to go up quickly. On average, these stocks have already increased in value by 30% in one month. I think they are priced out right now. If you are an index investors, the index will likely be pretty flat for awhile.

[Zan15]

Hey @Zan15 those DOW futures like kind of low. Any honest conversation on the thread's topic?

Whelp I went to bed on Friday with the notion that the market is now consumer amauture stock trader driven.
These people eat the media, drink the media and live the media.

Something changed the last few days of April.

For one hell of a month it was nothing but rosy outlooks and good news.

Then the media and "stock market experts" started to report how bad things were going to be even after the "grand re-opening sale" started.

Now its been about 90/10% bad news about the future for stocks and I expect because of this these "newbie" stock folks are rushing for the door in fear.


I said a while ago that this climb was most likely the same pattern that repeats its self in most recession/depressions/crashes. You have the crash, the fake recovery, the second crash and then a couple smaller peaks and dips before the long climb back to point zero.

I think its called a W recovery vs the V recovery people were talking about last month. (the letters representing a stock market chart.)

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I'm still amazed on how the market isnt crashing and burning, since we have 15-20% (!) unemployment at this point.

because those people are still getting paid, and a lot of them paid more than they were making between the extra 600 and the 1200+.

Then they are not spending that money on things like Rent because most states have suspended actions against non rent payment.

If those people were just getting flat unemployment (35-55% of normal income) there would be a much different story.

Also 1Q earnings were 80% based on most of the US still open.

Amazon was a perfect example, with how much money they are going to have to spend on this virus even the shit ton of stimulus spending they are receiving is not going to offset the cost.

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I'm still amazed on how the market isnt crashing and burning, since we have 15-20% (!) unemployment at this point.

SEE ^ about the W shaped stock market. This is normal for most crashes, depression and recessions.... good old fake recoveries.

[Breccia]

It's almost a good thing that oil took such a beating, between the trade war and now the Saudis vs. Russia spill, that they backed off doing any major development.

Because they might have been kicked out.

A federal court on Friday vacated 287 oil and gas leases issued by the U.S. government that covered 145,063 acres of land in Montana, deciding that the Trump administration did not adequately consider risks to the environment and water supply.

“The Court does not fault BLM for providing a faulty analysis of cumulative impacts or impacts to groundwater, it largely faults BLM for failing to provide any analysis,” said the decision by Obama appointee Brian Morris, referring to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM).

He vacated the leases, which were sold by the administration to oil and gas producers between December 2017 and March 2018.

He also ordered the bureau to conduct further analysis of the environmental impacts granting the leases would cause.

The decision came in response to a suit filed on behalf of landowners and environmental groups.

“The oil rush on Montana’s public lands put generational rural landowners at risk of losing clean water and the sustainability of their communities.” said a statement from Elizabeth Forsyth, an attorney at Earthjustice, which represented the environmental groups.

“The Bureau of Land Management was well aware that current oil and gas drilling practices would not protect sources of drinking water in these Montana communities, but rushed the sale anyway,” Forsyth added.

BLM officials said the agency would evaluate the ruling and determine its next steps.

The next steps appear to be "work with the half of the employees who decided to move out of Washington DC instead of quitting", so, I don't foresee a viable response to this court ruling.

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Airbnb waits till just after 4:30PM to announce 25% layoffs.

[Rasulis]

Airbnb waits till just after 4:30PM to announce 25% layoffs.

I am actually surprised they waited this long. The market for vacation rental is totally dead. We have vacation rentals (not through Airbnb) in Catalina, Carmel and Ft. Bragg. Catalina daily boat service to the island is suspended. The conservancy is closed. Our two houses there are generating zero income. The condos in Carmel are probably at less than 50% occupancy. The Ft. Bragg house is still at 100% occupancy. Probably because of its remote location. Good thing they are all paid off.