1. #4081
    The Undying Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Also, 44 oil & gas companies filed Chapter 11 in the third quarter of 2020 (17 in the exploration and production sector, and 27 in the oil field services sector).
    Are you saying that U.S. oil producers on pace for most bankruptcies since last oil downturn?

  2. #4082
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Probably worse. Most oil & gas companies that went bankrupt in 2014 - 2017 were able to restructure. This time, many won't be able to restructure due to their debt level and lack of investors. Even the price of fracking acreage has gone down by 67%.

    Approximately 12 million Americans will lose their jobless benefits the day after Christmas.

    - - - Updated - - -

    More bad news.

    Domestic airline passengers down 64% from the same time last year.

    International airline passengers down 74% from the same time last year.

    Business travel passengers down well over 90% from the same time last year.

  3. #4083
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    More bad news.
    The fact that so many airlines still exist at all is good news. I remember lots about 9/11 but included is the aftermath for the airline industry. Being 100% grounded for four days (or whatever it was) nealry shattered them. They've been smart and that's why those that are still flying, are still flying.

    But everyone has a breaking point.

  4. #4084
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    The fact that so many airlines still exist at all is good news. I remember lots about 9/11 but included is the aftermath for the airline industry. Being 100% grounded for four days (or whatever it was) nealry shattered them. They've been smart and that's why those that are still flying, are still flying.

    But everyone has a breaking point.
    To that I say "Tesla market cap now exceeds the combined EU auto industry."

    Go go USA! Go go Renee'!

    Renee' is my wife and she invested part of our 2020 vacation funds into Tesla stocks earlier this year.

  5. #4085
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    To that I say "Tesla market cap now exceeds the combined EU auto industry."

    Go go USA! Go go Renee'!

    Renee' is my wife and she invested part of our 2020 vacation funds into Tesla stocks earlier this year.
    i just don't get it....fucking crazy.

    They would have to have a growth rate in the thousands....for decades....
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  6. #4086
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    JPMorgan says that the GDP will contract again in Q1 2020, due to COVID raging out of control.

    "What about this quarter?"

    I don't see many new reports, but, even over the last month I have not seen any Q4 predictions higher than Q1's loss. 2020 will see a loss.

    At some point, you'd think Trump would want to flee.

  7. #4087
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    JPMorgan says that the GDP will contract again in Q1 2020, due to COVID raging out of control.

    "What about this quarter?"

    I don't see many new reports, but, even over the last month I have not seen any Q4 predictions higher than Q1's loss. 2020 will see a loss.

    At some point, you'd think Trump would want to flee.
    Guessing you meant Q1 2021?

    And yea, next 4 months feel like they are going to be brutal. The COVID numbers are staggering and are going to get worse until a vaccine starts rolling out, and even if its approved tomorrow theres a LOT of logistics work to do to actually get them to people.

  8. #4088
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    Trump's chronic inaction continues to weigh on the nation. While the DOW isn't crashing, unemployment continues to rise in the face of new cases/day setting records and deaths/day now back in May territory.

    This was 100% avoidable.

  9. #4089
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Trump's chronic inaction continues to weigh on the nation. While the DOW isn't crashing, unemployment continues to rise in the face of new cases/day setting records and deaths/day now back in May territory.

    This was 100% avoidable.
    i think you got your links mixed up.


    Only reason Dow is not crashing is the rotation into those stocks vs just about everyone putting money on tech.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Deja Thoris View Post
    Guessing you meant Q1 2021?

    And yea, next 4 months feel like they are going to be brutal. The COVID numbers are staggering and are going to get worse until a vaccine starts rolling out, and even if its approved tomorrow theres a LOT of logistics work to do to actually get them to people.
    and we've seen how this administration handles logistics.
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  10. #4090
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Trump's chronic inaction continues to weigh on the nation. While the DOW isn't crashing, unemployment continues to rise in the face of new cases/day setting records and deaths/day now back in May territory.

    This was 100% avoidable.
    And you can guarantee the GOP will try and blame this all on Biden once he is sworn in.
    "If you are ever asking yourself 'Is Trump lying or is he stupid?', the answer is most likely C: All of the Above" - Seth Meyers

  11. #4091
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Trump's chronic inaction continues to weigh on the nation. While the DOW isn't crashing, unemployment continues to rise in the face of new cases/day setting records and deaths/day now back in May territory.

    This was 100% avoidable.
    It is as bad as it can get.

    778,000 American workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

    20.4 million Americans are on some form of unemployment assistance.

    12 million unemployed US citizens will lose their unemployment benefit the day after Christmas.

    7 million people will be facing eviction on January 1, 2021.

    Yet, for every Chapter 11 filing, two new businesses were formed.




    Traveling nurses make up $8,000 per week plus cost of living.

    Demand for garlic is crushing it. Christopher Ranch of Gilroy, the last large garlic farm and processing company in the US, garlic sales went up by 70%. BTW, buy California garlic. Not Chinese garlic. Because of the soil and abundant sunlight, California garlic has much higher sugar content than Chinese garlic.

    Investments in U.S. based start-ups rose 30% in the third quarter to $36.5 billion, driven by a record number of mega rounds of at least $100 million.

    Start-up spending is now at an all-time high, roughly 5% higher than it was before the pandemic. Start-up employees are spending far less on Seamless orders and Uber trips as restaurant and rideshare transactions plunged 60% and 40% from pre-pandemic levels. Travel and events-related spending is only 25% of what it was before. But growth in online marketing and recurring software costs like Amazon Web Services and work-from-home stipends has made up for those declines.

    2020 has been a record breaking year for new IPOs. It is not slowing down yet. DoorDash, Airbnb, Affirm, Roblox and Wish unveiled their prospectuses in the past eight days, with plans to go public before year-end. All five are California companies.

    M&A is also strong. Salesforce is in talk to buy Slack (17 billion market cap).

    E-commerce started around 2000 and grew at a pace of around 1 percent per year. In 2020, it grew from 18% to 28% of the US retail market. Basically it experienced a decade worth of growth in a single year.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Back to my regularly schedule oil & gas kvetch.

    According to a new analysis by BailoutWatch, Public Citizen, and Friends of the Earth, the fossil fuel industry received between US$10.4 billion and US$15.2 billion in direct economic relief, with more than 26,000 coal, oil, and gas companies benefiting directly. In addition, indirect benefits in the form of bond funds bought by the Fed and billions of newly issued company bonds pushed government aid to the industry past US$110 billion.

    If only they had spent a fraction of it into the EV industry, battery technology and offshore windmill farms.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2020-11-26 at 07:30 AM.

  12. #4092

  13. #4093
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post
    And you can guarantee the GOP will try and blame this all on Biden once he is sworn in.
    It will be exactly like the Bush - Obama 2008-2009 shit all over again.

    They will complain that Biden could not fix the crap that was left to him fast enough.

    It will be a slow and steady recovery without huge risk and major flimsy gimmicks that only fix the problem in the short term but make the long term hell (trump tax cuts)
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  14. #4094
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    As @Benggaul 's numbers continue to alarm and concern, other numbers increase as well.

    Initial jobless claims rose this week, from about 700k to about 850k. This is only one week of significant reversal and could be a spike, but, there hasn't been a relief bill and we still have zero federal leadership -- in fact, Team Trump is still pretty vehemently for re-opening in a surge while not wearing masks, as evidenced by pretty much any Trump rally, holiday party, lawyer or the funerals that follow them.

  15. #4095
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    As @Benggaul 's numbers continue to alarm and concern, other numbers increase as well.

    Initial jobless claims rose this week, from about 700k to about 850k. This is only one week of significant reversal and could be a spike, but, there hasn't been a relief bill and we still have zero federal leadership -- in fact, Team Trump is still pretty vehemently for re-opening in a surge while not wearing masks, as evidenced by pretty much any Trump rally, holiday party, lawyer or the funerals that follow them.
    Problem with the markets are they are forward looking and people are betting on year 2 of the vaccine so we won't see much downside unless something seriously goes wrong with the vaccine rollout.

    i put a lot of bets on the cyclical stocks like Citibank that basically print money each year. A lot of money is starting to be pumped into those stocks that have been money generators for decades but have not seen the recovery "yet".

    We'll see if that last.
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  16. #4096
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    As @Benggaul 's numbers continue to alarm and concern, other numbers increase as well.

    Initial jobless claims rose this week, from about 700k to about 850k. This is only one week of significant reversal and could be a spike, but, there hasn't been a relief bill and we still have zero federal leadership -- in fact, Team Trump is still pretty vehemently for re-opening in a surge while not wearing masks, as evidenced by pretty much any Trump rally, holiday party, lawyer or the funerals that follow them.
    Trump is acting like a high school senior on his last semester. No interest in actually doing real work. Just marking time, partying and settling grudges. It is unbelievable that somebody like this can get elected to be the president of the United States.

    On a side note, I think Tesla Powerwall is the best thing since white bread. We had 50 mph sustained wind with 90 mph gust last week. Due to wild fire risk, SDG&E turned off power in our area from Wednesday night to Friday afternoon. We did not even notice it. My first inkling was when I drove to work Thursday morning and all the traffic lights and billboards at Barona were off. Coming home, everything was dark. Except for our house.

  17. #4097
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    As @Benggaul 's numbers continue to alarm and concern, other numbers increase as well.

    Initial jobless claims rose this week, from about 700k to about 850k. This is only one week of significant reversal and could be a spike, but, there hasn't been a relief bill and we still have zero federal leadership -- in fact, Team Trump is still pretty vehemently for re-opening in a surge while not wearing masks, as evidenced by pretty much any Trump rally, holiday party, lawyer or the funerals that follow them.
    Your post from a week ago pretty much still holds.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/initi...171303207.html

    Title: Jobless claims: Another 885,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week

    The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main results in the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

    Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 12: 885,000 vs. 818,000 expected and a revised 862,000 during the prior week

    Continuing claims, week ended Dec. 5: 5.508 million vs. 5.7 million expected and a revised 5.781 million during the prior week

    Over the past month, record new COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations gave way to new mobility restrictions across the country, weighing on employment. Some officials have warned of even more restrictions following the holiday season, as regions look to stem the unabated spread of COVID-19 with widespread vaccine distribution still months away.
    And this is on top of structural issues that are hiding not far below the surface.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...110000761.html

    Title: America’s Zombie Companies Rack Up $2 Trillion of Debt

    Excerpts:

    They were once America’s corporate titans. Beloved household names. Case studies in success.

    But now, they’re increasingly looking like something else -- zombies. And their numbers are swelling.

    From Boeing Co., Carnival Corp. and Delta Air Lines Inc. to Exxon Mobil Corp. and Macy’s Inc., many of the nation’s most iconic companies aren’t earning enough to cover their interest expenses (a key criterion, as most market experts define it, for zombie status).

    More than 200 corporations have joined the ranks of so-called zombie firms since the onset of the pandemic, according to a Bloomberg analysis of financial data from 3,000 of the country’s largest publicly-traded companies. In fact, zombies now account for nearly a quarter of those firms. Even more stark, they’ve added almost $1 trillion of debt to their balance sheets in the span, bringing total obligations to $1.98 trillion. That’s more than the roughly $1.58 trillion zombie companies owed at the peak of the financial crisis.
    There is a lot of debt to cover. The bad news? Even if most of it gets covered, it's not all that great. Zombie companies tend to be a drag on national economies.

    Zombie companies get their nickname because of their tendency to limp along, unable to earn enough to dig out from under their obligations, but still with sufficient access to credit to roll over their debts. They’re a drag on the economy because they keep assets tied up in companies that can’t afford to invest and build their businesses.
    “Zombie firms have been building due to lax markets that provided staying power for seemingly insolvent companies. The pandemic exacerbated this perennial issue. From an economic theory standpoint, zombies lower long-term growth as you have mis-allocation of capital and companies commanding market share but without the ability to invest in growth. Nearer term, because zombie firms exhaust value, credit-recovery assumptions should go lower, which arguably should send spreads higher to compensate.”
    Specific industries have been hit hard.

    Among new entrants, all four major U.S. airlines, with a combined $128 billion of debt, have become zombies in 2020. And entertainment companies on the list grew from 6 last year to 12, accounting for about $13 billion of additional debt.
    The good news? Zombie companies have lost so much value that they are not that large of the economy anymore. So their continuing problems won't drag down the rest of the economy TOO much.

    Some say the concern over the spread of zombie companies is being over-hyped.

    While they accounted for 41% of U.S. firms in a UBS Group AG analysis based on their interest-coverage ratios as of the second quarter, weighted by assets the percentage declined dramatically, to just 10%. And when using the bank’s preferred methodology, which looks at debt to enterprise value, the share fell to just 6%, close to average levels since the late 1990s.

    “The zombie problem is fairly benign in the U.S.,” said Matthew Mish, a strategist at UBS. “I don’t think the problem looks any worse than the last two recessions.”
    Of course, "I don't think the problem looks any worse than the last two recessions." is hardly a ringing endorsement.

  18. #4098
    The Undying Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    Jobless claims: Another 885,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week
    I wonder if we'll be able to tell the difference between more jobs lost from the, sigh, increasingly dismal death count because y'all won't wear a mask and the end of the holiday season. I know BLS says things like "seasonally adjusted" and stuff but these are not normal times.

  19. #4099
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    Your post from a week ago pretty much still holds.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/initi...171303207.html

    Title: Jobless claims: Another 885,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week



    And this is on top of structural issues that are hiding not far below the surface.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...110000761.html

    Title: America’s Zombie Companies Rack Up $2 Trillion of Debt

    Excerpts:



    There is a lot of debt to cover. The bad news? Even if most of it gets covered, it's not all that great. Zombie companies tend to be a drag on national economies.





    Specific industries have been hit hard.



    The good news? Zombie companies have lost so much value that they are not that large of the economy anymore. So their continuing problems won't drag down the rest of the economy TOO much.



    Of course, "I don't think the problem looks any worse than the last two recessions." is hardly a ringing endorsement.
    I think they are referring to the fact that although the amount of outstanding debt is larger that what it was during the last two recessions, the cumulative market value of the current ghost companies is a fraction of the market/economy as a whole. In 2000 and 2008, the the values were much higher. Dot com companies were over 50% of the market value in 2000 and financial companies were 40% of the market value in 2008. What is the impact of 2 trillion dollars of bad debt on the market/economy? Dunno. I guess we'll find out. Personally, I think the market can absorb 2 trillion of bad debt without too much upheaval.

  20. #4100
    The Undying Breccia's Avatar
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    Trump breaks another record.

    Poverty is rising at the fastest rate in America in the history of ever ever.

    Add eight million people since this summer.

    Eight. As in "start with the population of Indiana, then add enough people to fill every NFL stadium all at once"

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