Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Milchshake]

I honestly don't think they're quite ready for what that means.

Bernie's spent his entire career being a professional underdog and that is part of the draw. So we'll see how he manages under frontrunner scrutiny.

It will be a bloodbath. Since I will be spending the next 6 months shitposting on Bernie. Sorry, it's contracual payback for the last 5 years. I've been vetting Bernie the past few weeks. There's a mountain of ways to troll Bernie.

Lets see. Bernie's troll army is now tweeting that Pete is unelectable, since "he cant win the black vote".

To discourage black voters if Bernie is the nom. All the GOP has to do is:
Play clips of 2012 Bernie calling "Obama a disappointment!" Clips of his senior campaign staff saying worse about Obama.
Play Clips of 2019 Bernie calling Obama "lazy", since he only won 10% of the white vote in Mississippi.

I cant wait until wikileaks gets the raw footage of Bernie's Moscow honeymoon. A former KGB agaent will mysteriously drop it in their laps about October, 2020.

[Elegiac]

The DNC has all sorts of fucked up ties to the people who fucked up the Iowa caucus.

And the Iowa caucus largely only took place because of the Bernie campaign.

So who's at fault here, hm?

- - - Updated - - -

It will be a bloodbath. Since I will be spending the next 6 months shitposting on Bernie. Sorry, it's contracual payback for the last 5 years. I've been vetting Bernie the past few weeks. There's a mountain of ways to troll Bernie.

Lets see. Bernie's troll army is now tweeting that Pete is unelectable, since "he cant win the black vote".

To discourage black voters if Bernie is the nom. All the GOP has to do is:
Play clips of 2012 Bernie calling "Obama a disappointment!" Clips of his senior campaign staff saying worse about Obama.
Play Clips of 2019 Bernie calling Obama "lazy", since he only won 10% of the white vote in Mississippi.

I cant wait until wikileaks gets the raw footage of Bernie's Moscow honeymoon. A former KGB agaent will mysteriously drop it in their laps about October, 2020.

What will also be interesting is seeing how Bernie's difficulty in admitting error will factor into that. Because I get the feeling that trying to weasel out of it as a "product of the times" situation will draw some very unfavorable Biden comparisons.

No politician is clean. Not even Bernie Sanders. And that shoe is likely going to drop over the next few months.

[Fugus]

God, I wish we could just move to a ranked choice voting method nationally and ditch the whole primary/caucus thing entirely.

Just set aside 2 days nationally and let the entire thing play out then with everyone voting during those days which are a national holiday.

No spoiler votes, no super delegates, no "Momentum" from previous states. No any of that.

Just like them all run at the same time, the DNC wants to put up 12 candidates and the Republicans want to put up another 12 while Sanders and the others run as independent/green/libertarian or other that is fine. I can rank the 30+ candidates I want in order and I don't have to put them down.

I just rank the ones I actually want and leave the rest blank or fill out a "None of the Above" option as my last and leave it at that.

Would solve SO many problems with that system. Then we deal with money in politics as well.

[kaelleria]

Bullshit. Literal horseshit.

They just won't fucking cover Sanders for example. They just don't. They give more fucking air time to Klobuchar than they do to Sanders. The occasional coverage Sanders gets is either mocking and dismissive or he is just ignored.

Furthermore whenever Sanders is on TV, people running the show don't want to talk about the stuff Sanders wants to talk about. It turns into shitshows where they are loading questions or try to stir drama.

I shit you fucking not, Fox News almost does a better job at talking to Sanders than anyone else. Sure, they hate him, but at least they tend to let him talk about his platform rather than fishing for him to attack others.

- - - Updated - - -



Yeah. After Iowa, I'd trust the GOP more with running the Democratic primaries than I trust the DNC.

I would probably vote for anyone who's nominated against Trump, but I'd drop my party affiliation and would never give another cent in my life to anything that might put a penny in the DNCs coffers.

Like I'm already 100% done with the Democratic party, I'm just hoping that if Progressives take the reign they might reform the thing, but if not, I'd rather see it die.

You are delusional. I bet you think there's a Bernie blackout too?

[Elegiac]

Okay, so...Googling "Pete Eating" was a mistake.



"Why can't politicians just eat normally." A question for the philosophers.

[Martymark]

Sanders won't be the nominee.

So, you say Trump is going to be president after the DNC very publicly makes sure of that?

[Blur4stuff]

I have a difficult time listening to other people eat. At least with goofy pictures I can't hear it.

Looks like Pete is getting some of Biden's voters for NH. If he manages to pull off a win there he may have a shot at some super tuesday states but it's gonna require a lot of fucking word done quickly.

[Edge-]

"Why can't politicians just eat normally." A question for the philosophers.

"Why people care at all about how others eat." Similarly, a question for the philosophers.

I mean...does anyone actually fucking care?

[Nurasu]

"Why people care at all about how others eat." Similarly, a question for the philosophers.

I mean...does anyone actually fucking care?

For me, the Cinnabon was the final straw. Call me superficial. Or privileged. Probably both.

[Elegiac]

"Why people care at all about how others eat." Similarly, a question for the philosophers.

I mean...does anyone actually fucking care?

Don't hate me, it's my thing.

I also watch the older seasons of Bad Girls Club sometimes when I'm drunk.

[starlord]

i eat cinnamon rolls like a fruit roll up so i don't judge.

[Elegiac]

There is implicit bias, they are all friends and do favors for each other. If you don't think the National Party has sway of the state party you're delusional. Making the National Party happy helps you go from being Mayor to Congressman, Senator, or hell even President apparently. Either that are you have way to much faith in people.

This in no way rings true when you account for the fact the DNC was explicitly opposed to the virtual caucus at all.

Facts, s'il te plait.

[Skroe]

So, you say Trump is going to be president after the DNC very publicly makes sure of that?

Again, I give Trump a 60% chance of being re-elected.

Sanders won't be the nominee because he splits the vote with the other Democrats in the big-progressive states (thus failing to establish a delegate lead there) while falling behind to Biden (or Mayor Pete) on delegates in the big-centrist Democratic states.

The DNC has nothing to do with it. Maybe instead of blaming the DNC, you should ask Bernie why he has such limited appeal in, say Texas.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...imary-d/texas/
Biden - 25.6%
Bernie - 19.6%

or Georgia
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ary-d/georgia/
Biden 33.1%
Sanders 18.4%

or Florida
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ary-d/florida/
Biden - 33.0%
Sanders - 17.3%

or Virginia
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ry-d/virginia/
Biden - 29.0%
Sanders - 18.9%


or Pennsylvania
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/
Biden - 26.2%
Sanders - 18.3%

or North Carolina
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orth-carolina/
Biden - 29.0%
Sanders - 19.3%


Now as people drop out (Warren, Mayor Pete) this could change, in either direction, but its honestly getting to be a joke that this has to keep being declared. Sanders simply cannot expect to lose states by this magnitude and be the nominee. The math doesn't work at all. It won't be the DNC that fucks Sanders. It'll be Sanders that fucks Sanders because losing the above states - all early, delegate rich states - isn't countered by winning delegate-lite states like North Dakota, or acheving narrow victories in places like Michigan where the delegate distribution between 1st and 2nd place is nearly equal due to how narrow the victory is.

A key thing to note in all the above - Warren and Mayor Pete poll around 10% in each of them. Being below the 15% threshold, that means they get no delegates, but we can eyeball how the distribution would be adjusted if either or both would drop out. In many of these, if Mayor Pete drops out and his share broadly shifts to Biden, it extends Biden's lead more. If Warren drops out and her share broadly shifts to Bernie while Mayor Pete stays in, Bernie gets near ties in many of these states. This is why Warren staying in is comparatively damaging to Bernie than Pete is to Biden. Because Bernie needs her voters support early while Biden doesn't need Petes. Lastly if both drop out, then both Biden and Bernie just go up about +10ish each and Biden's lead stays.

In short, Biden, or more broadly, a centrist Democrat, is primed for wins in delegate rich centrist/conservative Democratic leaning states that are head and shoulders above the progressive alternative (bernie in this case). Meanwhole the progressive alternative has no comparable state that is delegate rich that they decisively win. California for example, looks like this:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-d/california/
Sanders - 26.4%
Biden 20.1%
Warren 14.8%

Let's examine two scenarios: Warren goes above 15% with 15.1% of the vote, and Warren stays at exactly 14.8%. Plugging this into the 270 to win delegate calculator:

15.1% scenario:
Total delegates: 144.
Sanders - 54 delegates
Biden - 52 delegates.
Warren - 38 delegates
others - 0 delegates.

14.8% scenario
Sanders - 82 delegates
Biden - 62 delegates
Warren - 0 delegates

Thus you can see how immensely damaging Warren staying in is to Bernie. Her staying in turns California - the most delegate rich state in the union and a big state for progressives - into a virtual draw between Sanders and Biden - Bernie's "win" nets him just 2 more delegates. All by being at 15.1%. But if she falls a hair below 15% at 14.8%, she allows Sanders to net a 20 delegate advantage over Biden.

This is how Bernie Sanders loses... or wins. It's largely up to Warren. If she stays in until Super Tuesday - the day California, Texas, North Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, and Vermont all vote - he's toast.

Consider my state, Massachusetts. I will be voting for Biden or Warren or Pete, but not Sanders. Currently Warren is polling at 33%, and will net 18 delegates, while Biden is polling at 26% and get 14. Bernie is poling at 13% and gets zero. This opens a 13 delegate advantage for Biden over Bernie (presuming Warren drops out), that if Warren were to leave before Super Tuesday, would be effectively zeroed as Bernie would go above 15% (maybe even above Biden).

The math on this hasn't changed in 6 months. But sure, let's blame the DNC for some reason.

BernieBros, your problem is Elizabeth Warren staying in until after March 3rd. The math says fuck your feelings.

- - - Updated - - -

There is implicit bias, they are all friends and do favors for each other. If you don't think the National Party has sway of the state party you're delusional. Making the National Party happy helps you go from being Mayor to Congressman, Senator, or hell even President apparently. Either that are you have way to much faith in people.

The National Party does not have sway over the state party by itself. It only does that with the help of OTHER state parties. The DNC, like the RNC, is weak by itself.

If you actually paid attention to politics since the last time Bernie Sanders decided to inflict his so-called political revolution on America, you'd know that. Because after the 2016 election, the DNC got into a bit of a tiff with a few states about the primary calendar - moving them early into the year and trying to leapfrog others - and was only able to fix that by having the other states basically strong arm the several rebel states. It couldn't do it by itself.

As someone who was active within the Massachusetts Republican Party, I can tell you from personal experience the National Party plays little role in any kind of state politics. It's, at best, a top-level coordinator. And more often an unwelcome meddler that is generally ignored.

[Shalcker]

Again, I give Trump a 60% chance of being re-elected.

Sanders won't be the nominee because he splits the vote with the other Democrats in the big-progressive states (thus failing to establish a delegate lead there) while falling behind to Biden (or Mayor Pete) on delegates in the big-centrist Democratic states.

The DNC has nothing to do with it. Maybe instead of blaming the DNC, you should ask Bernie why he has such limited appeal in, say Texas.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...imary-d/texas/
Biden - 25.6%
Bernie - 19.6%

or Georgia
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ary-d/georgia/
Biden 33.1%
Sanders 18.4%

or Florida
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ary-d/florida/
Biden - 33.0%
Sanders - 17.3%

or Virginia
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ry-d/virginia/
Biden - 29.0%
Sanders - 18.9%


or Pennsylvania
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/
Biden - 26.2%
Sanders - 18.3%

or North Carolina
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orth-carolina/
Biden - 29.0%
Sanders - 19.3%

It's weird to use this data as predictive when you can look at Iowa
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...rimary-d/iowa/
and see Sanders at 22, Biden at 20, and Buttigieg at 15...

when we know that Sanders and Buttigieg basically tied on delegates there and Biden went to fourth place.

Clearly polls are missing a lot.

[Skroe]

As I said you have much more faith in people then you should. If you don't think people will grease a gear in a machine to get ahead or that next promotion.

This is a sad act of you waving a magic wand and wishing something to be true because it fits a narrative.

There is precisely no evidence of what you are saying.

Like honestly, do you want to win the fucking Presidency or what, @Jettisawn? Because you sir, have a serious problem on your hand if you do. It's called the Florida Democratic Party. The FDP has been an unreformable shit show for a decade. It's been a money black hole. Money goes into it. It gives money to grifters and consultancies . Those grifters and consultancies don't get out the vote and don't deliever on the money they get. As a result, Democrats badly underperform in a state they should win as easily as they do Virginia now.

The Florida Republican Party is, by contrast, a highly professional operation... one of the best of the country. So in Florida you have one of the best state-level party organizations in the country on the Republican side, and one of the most serially incompetent on the Democratic side. That's how what should be a reliably D+5 state is now really an R+3 state. There is a, let's say, 8 point incompetence tax.

If you wanted to actually win the presidency and not jerk yourself off about your fucking beliefs and how Saint Sanders is gonna be screwed by the dastardly DNC, you would be going to Defcon 1 about the Florida Democratic Party being unreformable despite the best efforts of the DNC and Sanders' people, and other PACs. Because the Democratic map WITH Florida is very easy and WITHOUT Florida is far narrower. Democrats are actually making ANY path to the Presidency far harder because of the Florida Democratic Party being the worst.

That's not the DNC's doing anymore than it is in Iowa. It's Flordia Democrats being terrible at running their affairs.

So you can spend your energies beating up the wrong goddamn target, or you can be productive for a change and muster your progressive verve to actually win elections by going after one of the actual villains, which is, in this example, the Florida Democratic Party's inability to get it done.

Or we can keep talking about Tom Perez. Because you know. That helps anything.

You know, I take it back. Trump isn't going to beat you people should Bernie Sanders make it to the general. You people will beat you people. Your attention to detail is embarrassing, and Trump's people are exquisite about that sort of thing now.

[eschatological]

@Skroe You seem very convinced Bernie and Warren are going to split progressive states, but not that Biden is going to split votes with Pete/Klobuchar in moderate/conservative states who're wary of Biden for whatever reason?

[kaelleria]

@Skroe You seem very convinced Bernie and Warren are going to split progressive states, but not that Biden is going to split votes with Pete/Klobuchar in moderate/conservative states who're wary of Biden for whatever reason?

Klobuchar is going to drop after NH barring some miracle of her beating Biden for 4th.

[Skroe]

@Skroe You seem very convinced Bernie and Warren are going to split progressive states, but not that Biden is going to split votes with Pete/Klobuchar in moderate/conservative states who're wary of Biden for whatever reason?

I explained why above:

in short, Biden's lead above Bernie is is big enough where he doesn't need the Pete/Klobchar vote (who both fall well below 15%) to have a substantial lead over Sanders. Meanwhile Sanders needs Warren's voter share - nearly 1:1 - to tie Biden or, at best, narrowly pass him.

I'll offer an example once again let's consider the following 4 scenarios.

North Carolina. Big Super Tuesday state. 99 delegates. Big scoring opportunity.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orth-carolina/

Biden - 29%
Sanders -18.9%
Warren - 10.3%
Buttigieg - 9.5%
Others - the rest.

Scenario 1: The above numbers hold precisely. Nothing changes. Neither Buttigieg or Warren drop out before Super Tuesday.
Outcome: If those numbers hold to exactly that, Biden gets 61 delegates while Sanders gets 38. That creates a nice opening for Biden.


Scenario 2: The "ideal for Bernie Sanders Scenario". Warren drops out before Super Tuesday and Sanders gets 100% of her supporters. Buttigieg stays in and divides the "centrist" vote:
Biden - 29%
Sanders -29.2%
Buttigieg - 9.5%
Outcome: Biden gets 45 delegates, Sanders get 53. Good for Sanders, but only a narrow loss for Biden.



Scenario 3: The "ideal for Biden scenario". Buttigieg drops out before Super Tuesday. Warren stays in. Buttigieg voters go 100% to Biden.
Biden - 38.5%
Sanders -18.9%
Warren - 10.3%
Others - the rest.

Outcome: Biden gets 67, Bernie gets 32, Warren gets 0. Biden scores a pretty substantial delegate lead over Bernie, however the number of delegates are almost the same as Scenario 1. The conclusion we can draw Buttigieg being in the race doesn't hurt him compared to the damage Warren inflicts on Bernie by her being the race. Buttiegieg doesn't create a substantial delegate drag on Biden, but Warren does on Bernie.


Scenario 4: It becomes a 2 man Biden-Bernie race BEFORE Super Tuesday.
Biden - 38.5%
Sanders - 29.2%

Outcome: Biden gets 54 delegates, Bernie gets 45. A narrow / borderline modest lost for Bernie. Not great, but not a disaster. This too illustrates how much of a comparative drag Bernie is.



Simply put, Warren eats up a larger share of Bernie's pie than Pete/Klobochar does for Biden. And with Biden already having a lead, he can afford that. Bernie, who is facing a 10% deficit, cannot. Not if he hopes to close the large delegate gaps her presence creates.

Bernie's problem is that due to reconfiguring of Super Tuesday since 2016, the primary season is quite frontloaded - March 3rd and March 10th are big days. If the primaries had big delegate rich-states with progressive/conservative tilts equally distributed on the calendar, then losing big on a smaller March 3rd wouldn't hurt because as the field gets narrowed down, he'd see more wins or losses in the mold of Scenario 4 in other states. His problem is that due to where states are on the calendar, many of his "best case scenarios" see Secnario 4-ish outcomes before the end of March while many of Biden's "best case scenarios" see big delegate takes.

[eschatological]

I haven't looked into the polls, but I would imagine most of them were conducted pre-Iowa when Pete was low on people's radar. Do you not wonder if Pete will carry some momentum into a 3rd (maybe 2nd) place finish in Iowa, and Biden will fail?

For some reason, people gain and lose momentum based on Iowa. Voters listen to that dumb state, for better or for worse.

[kaelleria]

I haven't looked into the polls, but I would imagine most of them were conducted pre-Iowa when Pete was low on people's radar. Do you not wonder if Pete will carry some momentum into a 3rd (maybe 2nd) place finish in Iowa, and Biden will fail?

For some reason, people gain and lose momentum based on Iowa. Voters listen to that dumb state, for better or for worse.

Yep... Pete gained 4 points nationally in a tracking poll since yesterday. Add in a strong second place finish in NH and he'll rise even further. Who knows, he could even beat Sanders in NH...