Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Milchshake]

Biden hasn't spoken out in public for more than 5 minutes without shouting at a voter or journalist. I guess him and Trump have that in common. LOL

Biden gets more done in 5 minutes, than Bernie rambling about Billionaires 400 times in 30 minutes.

Biden rapidly grew his base in 2 weeks.
Bernie has shrunk his base over 5 years.

A few of us have been pointing out that Bernie is a grifter for years.

Sorry about your $27, no refunds.

[starlord]

Biden gets more done in 5 minutes, than Bernie rambling about Billionaires 400 times in 30 minutes.

Biden rapidly grew his base in 2 weeks.
Bernie has shrunk his base over 5 years.

A few of us have been pointing out that Bernie is a grifter for years.

Sorry about your $27, no refunds.

wall street isn't afraid of bernie at all;

As prediction markets showed the probability of Sanders winning the Democratic nomination going up earlier this year, the probability of Trump winning reelection in November went up, too. That means people betting on the election don’t think Sanders can win, and it’s a comparable crowd to the Wall Street world.

“He is audibly laughed at at work for his repetitive stream of hippie grandpa platitudes that serve as his ‘platform,’” said Emma Johnston, a vice president at asset manager State Street Global Advisors. “Gauging Sanders’s electability has effectively become guessing how many jellybeans are in the jar. Can he break even on the centrists he loses versus those he pulls from Trump’s base? People at my job don’t seem to think he can, and they certainly will not be voting for him.”
“Bernie likes to complain about billionaires, but he never really accomplished any particular policy or regulation that really got in their way, and I wonder if Wall Street folks kind of think of him as somewhat harmless,” said Charlie O’Donnell, a venture capitalist at Brooklyn Bridge Ventures. “It’s not clear that financial regulation is going to be something that he has a leg up on.”

“Broadly speaking, yes, I know Sanders loathes investment banks, but his subscription to the entire liberal orthodoxy is baked in, versus Warren who speaks with more precision about what she would do to Wall Street,” Johnston said. Though she also noted that in focusing so much on the details, some in the industry might be missing the point: “Bernie is popular precisely because he is imprecise.”

Many in finance can’t imagine a world where Sanders is in the White House, but even if they do, they think there’s a strong chance he’ll be restrained.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox...en-coronavirus

[breadisfunny]

Decades of championing the Palestinians kinda paints one as not very friendly to Israel. Anti-semitism, then, is a very small leap to make.

being against israels policies does not make one an anti-semite.

[Levelfive]

I don't really understand what you think is arguing with my stance.

I have explicitly said numerous times Dems mistakenly think independent voters = moderate voters. Go back and look, it is one of the main tenets of my argument.

I have also said numerous times, (though admittedly not since before yesterday) that Repubs run with a salesman's approach while Dems run with a lawyer's approach. Bernie is not a salesman. That should be a good thing but instead it is considered a marked weakness. Biden, is a salesman, but Trump is a better salesman. The left doesn't have a salesman on Trump's level, so, it will come down to record and the hope that people are upset enough with Trump that they'll vote against him on principle. Since that is the case, it makes more sense to run the most principled person, then it is to run a worse salesman against him.

But that won't happen because certain members of the Democratic party cannot stop marching oblivious towards moderate.

You said right here, "The difference being, lots of you think they are moderate voters. They aren't, they are independent." I'm saying there really aren't independent voters. There aren't even really swing states--it turns out, they're just as polarized as other states, but their numbers are balanced. What I'm primarily getting at, though, is that generally the same people who call Hillary a shit candidate who lost because she was moderate then say Bernie lost because he was too principled and not enough of a salesman, or whatever. The worst part is that not only are Democrats consistently on the right side of the issues--even if we have internecine fights about how policy should be implemented--a majority of the population agrees with us. Like 90% of the job is done for us but we're too principled to campaign like Republicans. That is not going great for us.

[Bodakane]

You said right here, "The difference being, lots of you think they are moderate voters. They aren't, they are independent." I'm saying there really aren't independent voters. There aren't even really swing states--it turns out, they're just as polarized as other states, but their numbers are balanced. What I'm primarily getting at, though, is that generally the same people who call Hillary a shit candidate who lost because she was moderate then say Bernie lost because he was too principled and not enough of a salesman, or whatever. The worst part is that not only are Democrats consistently on the right side of the issues--even if we have internecine fights about how policy should be implemented--a majority of the population agrees with us. Like 90% of the job is done for us but we're too principled to campaign like Republicans. That is not going great for us.

There are independent voters. There's no evidence to suggest otherwise.

You also cannot compare Hillary in the general election to Bernie in the primaries. They aren't the same thing in any regard. The rules are different, the goals are different and the amount of competition is different. Because of those very factual things, you absolutely can say Hillary was too moderate which was a big part in her losing the general election and Bernie isn't a good salesman and that contributed to him losing a primary.

[starlord]

The General Election Trump Michigan ad just about writes itself. Especially after the Biden endorsement and promise to place Beto in charge of Gun Control.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pro-gun-w...184041176.html

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysi...tration/25787/

nice, beto was very popular in texas. came closer to turning it blue than its been since before the Southern Strategy.

[Milchshake]

nice, beto was very popular in texas. came closer to turning it blue than its been since before the Southern Strategy.

• Nice to see real progressives still want to challenge the Gun Lobby
• Sad to see Bernie and his supporters turn into establishment shills for the NRA <again>

Gun Control polls more popularly than M4A?

[Theodarzna]

The General Election Trump Michigan ad just about writes itself. Especially after the Biden endorsement and promise to place Beto in charge of Gun Control.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pro-gun-w...184041176.html

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysi...tration/25787/

Gun grabber who vowed to confiscate firearms by force, and also said he'd tax every religious institution that didn't change their theology is both going to be luke warm in popularity and also GALVANIZE people to vote Trump to protect what they do have.

Given that Biden isn't offering any material benefit to these people, only vowing to seize their property and picks the guy who also wants to use the strength of the State to change their religious beliefs, yeah.... I suspect people will rally to defend their God and Guns. Especially since Dementia Joe ain't planning to do anything really for them.

Heck just run the clip of him hectoring a union worker.

[JohnBrown1917]

• Nice to see real progressives still want to challenge the Gun Lobby
• Sad to see Bernie and his supporters turn into establishment shills for the NRA <again>

Gun Control polls more popularly than M4A?

Yeah, you have no idea who is a progressive or not. Don't you have some anti-antifa protests to go to?

[Levelfive]

There are independent voters. There's no evidence to suggest otherwise.

You also cannot compare Hillary in the general election to Bernie in the primaries. They aren't the same thing in any regard. The rules are different, the goals are different and the amount of competition is different. Because of those very factual things, you absolutely can say Hillary was too moderate which was a big part in her losing the general election and Bernie isn't a good salesman and that contributed to him losing a primary.

There is actually: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-independents/

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...-theory-108944

"Though about four-in-ten Americans call themselves "independent" few are truly independent." --Pew Research Center

And it turns out only a minority of those even vote.

As for Hillary, it's becoming more and more clear that her gender really was a huge factor in the way people voted, and that Sanders' support from certain groups in 2016 evaporated against Joe Biden, who is the same type of moderate, among Democrats. Bernie lost the advantage of running against a woman and didn't expand beyond that, which points to a shortcoming in his messaging and his campaigning rather than an ostensible weakness of his opponents' moderation. My guess is that we are very likely to see that carry over into the general, but if it doesn't I'll revise my view.

[starlord]

Yeah, that was before he said he was going to take everyone's AR-15 in a presidential debate. He also couldn't get Biden a win in his own District. Bernie would have won that one. :P

sanders said he's endorsing biden if he wins. *shrug*
beto has a lot of overlap with demographics sanders did well with:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/ex...s/texas/senate

isn't that what you wanted? folding in candidates that young non white progressives favor?

[Rukh]

Lmao... some of you people try so hard to take such a simple, basic fact and make argument out of it. I'm debating whether to even respond to this unbelievably stupid as fuck post.

Of course people had to fight for it. Of course setbacks occur.

Are you going to tell me that the stock market doesn't always tend to grow because sometimes recessions happen???????????????????????????????????

Too many people take the centuries of fighting for rights for granted and assume that things will be fine with no effort. If you don't think it's a big deal, what can I say.

[Bodakane]

There is actually: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-independents/

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...-theory-108944

"Though about four-in-ten Americans call themselves "independent" few are truly independent." --Pew Research Center

And it turns out only a minority of those even vote.

As for Hillary, it's becoming more and more clear that her gender really was a huge factor in the way people voted, and that Sanders' support from certain groups in 2016 evaporated against Joe Biden, who is the same type of moderate, among Democrats. Bernie lost the advantage of running against a woman and didn't expand beyond that, which points to a shortcoming in his messaging and his campaigning rather than an ostensible weakness of his opponents' moderation. My guess is that we are very likely to see that carry over into the general, but if it doesn't I'll revise my view.

I fully understand this is going to sound like a copout, but it isn't...the bulk of that pew research is discussing independence based on issues, rather than candidates. Once it does discuss candidates, it does play out more like real independents. When it comes to candidates, independents are protest voting...they hate traditional politicians, that's why Trump won their vote and I don't know Biden will.

I agree sexism is rampant in this country, but Hillary still got 3 million more votes. I think sexism hurt Warren this primary because there were so many other choices. Warren vs Trump though? She wins hands down.

[DarkTZeratul]

No way Beto does that well in the future. His new stance could have even put his congressional seat in danger.

What Congressional seat? He lost the Senate race to Ted Cruz, and his term in the Texas state legislature ended last year.

[starlord]

No way Beto does that well in the future. His new stance could have even put his congressional seat in danger. it certainly does not help paint Biden as being Moderate on Gun Reform. Comprehensive background checks are fine even among NRA members, but confiscation or even buy back programs is split.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-ins...oll_us_090919/

as someone pointed out, he didn't win.
but he did do better than most dems ever do in texas.
biden's picking him because he made a big name for himself among progressives, especially in the south. if the repubs have to work that much harder to hold their home territory, its a win.
gun control has a lot of support nationwide - having someone like beto signals that biden is serious about it. biden won't necessarily implement every one of betos ideas, though.

[Bodakane]

No way Beto does that well in the future. His new stance could have even put his congressional seat in danger. it certainly does not help paint Biden as being Moderate on Gun Reform. Comprehensive background checks are fine even among NRA members, but confiscation or even buy back programs is split.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-ins...oll_us_090919/

Who cares about NRA members in that regard? 77% are republican and aren't going to vote for Beto, Biden or whoever, regardless of what gun legislation they are or are not considering.

[Levelfive]

I fully understand this is going to sound like a copout, but it isn't...the bulk of that pew research is discussing independence based on issues, rather than candidates. Once it does discuss candidates, it does play out more like real independents. When it comes to candidates, independents are protest voting...they hate traditional politicians, that's why Trump won their vote and I don't know Biden will.

I agree sexism is rampant in this country, but Hillary still got 3 million more votes. I think sexism hurt Warren this primary because there were so many other choices. Warren vs Trump though? She wins hands down.

I might have believed that before but I don't anymore, I'm sad to say--she would have made a great president. The other article I linked also discusses that actual independents are a very small minority, and talks more about how people voted for candidates if you're interested in that one.

I'm totally with you on Hillary winning the popular vote--that means she was much less of a "shit candidate" than people claim *and* that her being a moderate probably isn't what cost us the election. Trump won a lot of votes from people who would never have voted for a woman--he won white men without a college degree by the largest margin in decades (looking at you, 77k), which are votes Biden has a good shot at picking up.

Democrats have won every election since '92 except '04, and the pace that the country has shifted on progressive issues, which shifted elected Democrats as well, has actually been pretty remarkable, but we still keep getting boxed out and outmaneuvered structurally (a SC decision, the EC relic), and Republicans are doing their best to erect more and more structural obstacles to keep Democrats out of power even though a majority of the people vote for Democrats to have it. If we want to even interrupt that, Trump has to go. He just has to go. Not only is he an existential threat to democracy, now we will get to experience the full horrifying magnitude of his malign incompetence as it collides with a global pandemic.

Pardon the digression.

[Vash The Stampede]

vote or not, you removed yourself as a factor already in the eyes of politicians.

Who said I'm not voting? Not voting gives you no power, but voting gives you immense power. If Joe Biden doesn't agree with Medicare for All then I'm voting for Trump. Not because I agree with Trumps ideals or because I believe in him or even like him. In fact, I absolutely hate him, but to teach the Democrat party a lesson. You want 4 more years of Trump because this is how you get 4 more years of Trump. Adopt Medicare for All and I don't care about the details of why it can't be done just yet. Every other country in the world has it, including broke ass Greece. You'll find de way.

[starlord]

Biden has spit on every single policy progressive have at the top of their list. He has spoken down to young adults who are burdened with college debt. Beto has lost favor with progressives just like Warren. If progressive vote for Biden in the General Election they are voting against Trump and not for Biden at this point. We all know how well that worked in 2016. At least Bernie was kind enough to provide Joe a cheat sheet for the debate, not that I think it'll do him any good.

bernie said he will back biden, if that isn't good enough for you then i'm afraid there's no point.
bernie is going to... gasp... compromise.

- - - Updated - - -

Who said I'm not voting? Not voting gives you no power, but voting gives you immense power. If Joe Biden doesn't agree with Medicare for All then I'm voting for Trump. Not because I agree with Trumps ideals or because I believe in him or even like him. In fact, I absolutely hate him, but to teach the Democrat party a lesson. You want 4 more years of Trump because this is how you get 4 more years of Trump. Adopt Medicare for All and I don't care about the details of why it can't be done just yet. Every other country in the world has it, including broke ass Greece. You'll find de way.

good luck voting for trump!

[Vash The Stampede]

Nope, people are responsible for their own choices in life. I'm not going to vote for Biden, but I also don't think that the DNC somehow owes me anything.

You're right, the DNC doesn't owe me anything. I'd be in favor of a 3rd choice in American politics but this is what I'm given and this is what I have to work with. I wonder if Jill Stein is running for president?