How big do you think the dropoff will be and when?

[Fawkess]

So obviously classic will launch with a lot of people playing it and trying it out but how big do you think the amount of people that will quit will be and when do you think a lot of people will stop (Either in terms of level or time?)

I'm a large fan of classic but let's be real here a large amount of people who play classic will stop and I am curious to know what your thoughts are?

[Unholyground]

Since it is coupled in with the regular monthly fee, I bet a fuckton of people are going to play both versions of the game.

[Kanadei]

Since it is coupled in with the regular monthly fee, I bet a fuckton of people are going to play both versions of the game.

This.

I doubt there will be a big drop, more likely to be a constant influx of players dipping their toes in every so often for luls

[Ryzael]

small dropoff the first week, all uphill after that.

not many retailers check it out.

[Frolk]

small dropoff the first week, all uphill after that.

not many retailers check it out.

I bet most will check it out, but 80% dropoff before lvl 6, then another 10% before lvl 30, ppl who make it past lvl 30 are likely to hit 60.

[Puxycat]

people who want to "check out classic" will drop out before hitting level 20 and people will keep playing until 8.3 comes out .

[CrawlFromThePit]

So obviously classic will launch with a lot of people playing it and trying it out but how big do you think the amount of people that will quit will be and when do you think a lot of people will stop (Either in terms of level or time?)

I'm a large fan of classic but let's be real here a large amount of people who play classic will stop and I am curious to know what your thoughts are?

I think it won't be as bad as the p.server situation that I anticipated for Classic. The subscription model changes that a bit and the popularity of streamers will keep it more alive than I thought for longer.

That being said, most retail players who try it for the first time will not even reach lvl 10, people who come back for nostalgia will stay for a while, at least for their month they paid for. I'd expect classic to look very healthy for at least 2 months. Slight decrease in population after the first month but probably not too much. After 2 months a lot of people will be max lvl and stuck in multiple grind for gold and doing stuff for others (running to meeting stone cuz no one ever moves their fucking ass) and trying to find a good guild with their awesome ret pally cuz they misunderstood Esfand and think it's fine to play ret and everyone should accept them.

So yeah, the game will be over populated in every starting area pre lvl 10, then we'll see less and less people but it's only after 2 months that we should start noticing the real decline of the overall population.

[Ryzael]

I bet most will check it out, but 80% dropoff before lvl 6, then another 10% before lvl 30, ppl who make it past lvl 30 are likely to hit 60.

they already had a chance to check it out, the stress test was so dead they had to drop from like 15 realms to 2 just to stress it

there's plenty of people who desperately want classic that can't even get the release date right, i can't see many retailers who usually bash classic wasting their time downloading the client or sitting in a login queue just to be on the first day or so.

[Fawkess]

they already had a chance to check it out, the stress test was so dead they had to drop from like 15 realms to 2 just to stress it

there's plenty of people who desperately want classic that can't even get the release date right, i can't see many retailers who usually bash classic wasting their time downloading the client or sitting in a login queue just to be on the first day or so.

Well to be fair the stress test is meaningless because all your progress is wiped and you can't really level that far

[Ryzael]

Well to be fair the stress test is meaningless because all your progress is wiped and you can't really level that far

really think people who only play to lvl 6 care if their character gets wiped? guarantee most of retailer falls into the category of not even knowing when classic release date is, cause they don't care about it

[Maudib]

Classic will lose approx 40% of it's players in 3 months. But the 60% that stay will still outnumber those playing BfA.

[taishar68]

I suspect it will be kind of wave like, and not a mass exodus. I think some folks who have never played Classic and aren't deeply involved will leave almost immediately when they see how...primitive Classic is. The question is just how many actual people make up that part of the player base. After that the folks who are in for nostalgia might get bored, then folks might remember how slow it is to level, etc. I'd say if people are going to leave, the majority will leave in the first two weeks. I could be way off though, it's just a guess.

[ParanoiD84]

Think many will just play some classic when they have done most things for the week in regular wow.

[Hinastorm]

I think there will be 3 personally, but they will happen at different times for different people.

The biggest one will be when people are around level 10, and realize what a chore leveling is. The second one will be when people hit low-mid 40's, and realize it's only half way. The third will be people who recently hit 60, maybe will run some max level 5 man's, then give up at the daunting grind/attunement stuff.

[Thetruth1400]

I'll use a base 100 scale since it'll be easiest for the hypothetical.

Say at launch, 100 people play.
- Within 1 month, 20 will quit because it's not the experience they thought they'd get.
- 40 more will come and go between live and Classic or just not being subbed, making up the majority of the casual Classic player base.
- 20 more will play it even more casually, usually in lulls between patches only.
- That leaves 20 that will the dedicated Classic players; the ones only subbed for Classic.
- Of that, you'll have maybe 5 that are your tier 3, maybe even multiple characters at max level players.

In other words, a safe guess is 25% - 35% of the starting player base will stick with Classic in some form of play.

[Fascinate]

To me the launch numbers are more important than what happens after 6 months because it shows blizzard the interest level of a 15 year old game and will likely determine if they do tbc or wrath. There is always going to be a market for retro games so the dropoff doesnt really matter, blizz wants to know initial interest so they can see how much money they can bank off hype.

[clevin]

I think about 20-25% of the people who get to level 20 will actually be playing it more than a few hours per month after about 6 months. I would bet there will be small boosts as new phases unlock. But let's say 1M try it and get to 20... that would mean about 2-300k play it regularly after 6 months. For Classic, that would be a win. IF it's way more, that's a home run.

PS: I think that unless Classic flops hard they'll do TBC and LK. Why? Think about it...

August 2019, Classic releases. Boosts subs as people come back to check it out.

~August 2020, 9.0 releases. New box sales, subs boost up
~August 2021, TBC releases just as classic releases the last phase. TBC causes another bump.
~August 2022... 10.0
~August 2023, LK servers

Remember then wanting yearly releases so they didn't have lulls? Well... here we go, kind of.

[Octoberfest99]

I think there will be somewhere between 2 and 3 million unique players who will try Classic within the first month. Somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000 will stay for the long haul and level a character to 60. I suspect the majority of players will quit between level 11 and level 19. However, the 250,000 to 500,000 players who stay will be very active.

[Frolk]

they already had a chance to check it out, the stress test was so dead they had to drop from like 15 realms to 2 just to stress it

there's plenty of people who desperately want classic that can't even get the release date right, i can't see many retailers who usually bash classic wasting their time downloading the client or sitting in a login queue just to be on the first day or so.

I plan on playing Classic, but i didt go beyond lvl 2 the 1 stresstest i took part in as it was sorta pointless and "progressing" on a stresstest realm for 2h was pointless for me.

[Mardux]

really think people who only play to lvl 6 care if their character gets wiped? guarantee most of retailer falls into the category of not even knowing when classic release date is, cause they don't care about it

If you think beta and live have equal interest from players, why not?