Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Zan15]

So 10% of those surveyed blamed themselves?



So far nobody blamed the fully vaccinated. All is good.

Of course, republicans and extreme right wing folks continue the decades old pattern of blaming the brown people from south of the border. It even great in states where there is none unless they are swimming the gulf.....

[caractacus]

I think covid is demonstrably more dangerous than the flu but I do think there is a perception that covid is much more dangerous than it is. You can't take a single location and point in time and compare the two, for example saying a hospital last month had 100 people with covid and 1 person with the flu so it must be 100 times more dangerous. I think you need to do a large data analysis of the case or fatality infection rates and many studies such as these have shown that for young and healthy people the difference isn't all that great.

[Gaidax]

If you truly need hard lockdowns again to prevent hospital overflow, despite having most of the population vaccinated, we can kiss our lives goodbye ... for good.

It is what it is.

I'm pretty sure our healthcare system can "tank" quite a lot more than numbers we see now, which are not that big compared to what we dealt with in past, but the question is - does it have to? And then, these numbers can yet spike some more.

If hard and fast lockdown can nip this in the bud, then it's ok, IMO. It's better than risking it.

I'll just leave it to professionals to decide, thankfully we don't have MOH and govt filled with anti-vaxxers or reality deniers, so at least I can be chill about that one.

- - - Updated - - -

I think covid is demonstrably more dangerous than the flu but I do think there is a perception that covid is much more dangerous than it is. You can't take a single location and point in time and compare the two, for example saying a hospital last month had 100 people with covid and 1 person with the flu so it must be 100 times more dangerous. I think you need to do a large data analysis of the case or fatality infection rates and many studies such as these have shown that for young and healthy people the difference isn't all that great.

Unlike flu - we don't have effective treatment for C19 as of yet. When we will be able to treat C19 as effectively as we can treat flu, then it will be less of an issue it is now.

[Granyala]

The odds of significant population reduction is definitely not zero. Especially since in another couple of months or so there is a good chance that the lambda mutation will eclipse the delta one. For me, my biggest hope is that at some point, people taking the virus seriously again (like they did when the last wave was at a peak) combined with a lot of people already being dead will cause just as abrupt of a virus decline as we've seen repeatedly in the past. Previous peaks have been very bad, but short lived. Fingers crossed that the upcoming wave will have a similar pattern.

I doubt that any significant population reduction will happen.
That would have happened before the vaccination efforts already, especially in countries like India.

SARS-CoV-2 is not problematic enough to cause a significant drop in the human population, even if left unchecked.
I know bleeding hearts will crucify me for saying so but a few million dead, while tragic to the individuals involved, is hardly statistically relevant, given the rate at which we die/reproduce under normal circumstances.

Most certainly, this virus will not kill enough of us to hinder it's own spread.

- - - Updated - - -

If hard and fast lockdown can nip this in the bud, then it's ok, IMO. It's better than risking it.

Sure but go ask your economics department what "hard and fast" lockdowns will do to your economy and people's lives if used in perpetuity.
That's what you are basically looking at, if vaccines "do not work".

- - - Updated - - -

I think covid is demonstrably more dangerous than the flu but I do think there is a perception that covid is much more dangerous than it is. You can't take a single location and point in time and compare the two, for example saying a hospital last month had 100 people with covid and 1 person with the flu so it must be 100 times more dangerous. I think you need to do a large data analysis of the case or fatality infection rates and many studies such as these have shown that for young and healthy people the difference isn't all that great.

I think the problem with Covid-19 is less about the actual death rate (esp. in younger population segments) and more about the large percentage of individuals that have long lasting or permanent effects after an infection. So called "long covid". More data is needed on that front for sure.

[Rasulis]

I mentioned earlier that my wife had a fever of 101 and tested positive for Covid last week. I have always been careful with her health. Her family, on her father side, has history of COPD. Her father spent 10 years on oxygen and her brother is due for double lung transplant. Neither are smokers. She is also over 60 and has a black speck on her left lung which our doctor has been keeping an eye on since she was 30. Benign and not growing so far.

Fortunately, by the time I got back from work, her temperature had gone down to 97.5. The rest of the week, she ran and biked with me, we went scuba diving on Sunday, and she did her peloton classes regularly. Retested on Monday and came out negative. We thought the first test result was a false positive. Turned out they did additional genomic screening, which apparently is standard now in CA for positive tests, and the test indicates that she had Delta varian Covid virus in her system. I was tested this Monday and came out negative.

I guess Moderna vaccine worked for us.

[Jtbrig7390]

but I do think there is a perception that covid is much more dangerous than it is.

You should tell that to the family's of the 600k+ who are dead and the people with long lasting effects of it.

Covid was the 3rd leading cause of death in 2020 behind cancer and heart disease in the US...

[Rasulis]

A South Florida hospital system that typically doesn't have more than 1,400 people admitted at one time took in more than 1,600 COVID-19 patients for overnight stays on Wednesday, the Associated Press reported. The system's facilities had to add beds in conference rooms, an auditorium and a cafeteria to keep up with the influx of patients.

Those unvaccinated people are making not just their own, but everybody else's life miserable. Many hospitals have placed non immediate life threatening procedures on hold right now. So liberty or selfishness?

Across Florida, more than 12,000 patients were hospitalized with COVID-19 on Wednesday, and nearly 2,500 of them were in ICU beds.

- - - Updated - - -

You should tell that to the family's of the 600k+ who are dead and the people with long lasting effects of it.

Covid was the 3rd leading cause of death in 2020 behind cancer and heart disease in the US...

How many of those cancer and heart disease mortalities were caused by delayed treatment due to hospitals being overwhelmed by Covid cases? Covid has made preventive health care system in the US worse. Many early detection measures, mammogram, colonoscopy, etc., especially in rural area were put on hold or rescheduled for months later because of Covid.

[Forogil]

The odds of significant population reduction is definitely not zero. Especially since in another couple of months or so there is a good chance that the lambda mutation will eclipse the delta one.

Seems doubtful, it hasn't been designed a "variant of concern" yet; and is about a year old.

- - - Updated - - -

I doubt that any significant population reduction will happen.
That would have happened before the vaccination efforts already, especially in countries like India.

It seems the population reduction in India has been perhaps 0.3%.
The worst hit country is Peru (for some reasons: lack of refrigerators, older population than India, poor healthcare, ...) with a population reduction of about 0.6%.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53150808

That's similar to the 1917-1918 flu pandemic, which was then forgotten. The Black Death centuries ago was devastating with 30-50% reduction in population in many countries.

SARS-CoV-2 is not problematic enough to cause a significant drop in the human population, even if left unchecked.
I know bleeding hearts will crucify me for saying so but a few million dead, while tragic to the individuals involved, is hardly statistically relevant, given the rate at which we die/reproduce under normal circumstances.

Most certainly, this virus will not kill enough of us to hinder it's own spread.

Considering the fact that it mostly kill the elderly (and to some extent men) one could say even if it would kill of a significant portion of the population it wouldn't have much of a long-term effect.

[Rasulis]

Logistically, it is easy to get a booster shot in the US. We received our vaccine doses in CA. If we want a third booster shot, all we have to do is take a weekend trip to Sedona in AZ and get a shot there. Since the states do not communicate with each other, nobody would know that we have had our two doses.

[Rasulis]

Wait. She was COVID positive and you didn’t quarantine?

With each others, no. Still shared the same bed. With other people, yes. I worked from home last week. She is retired.

[Rasulis]

You said you were out doing things that week together, yes? Biking, scuba, peloton classes? If she had a fever, even if it subsided, don’t you think you both should have stayed home?

Unless I’m reading this wrong?

Peloton cycle classes are virtual. As for biking, running and diving, all outdoor activities. We just stay away from people. Point Lobos only allow 10 diving teams per day. We made our reservation months back. We saw cars parked at PLSR parking lot, but we did not actually see any other divers.

[Tuor]

Unlike flu - we don't have effective treatment for C19 as of yet. When we will be able to treat C19 as effectively as we can treat flu, then it will be less of an issue it is now.

Guess what? The flu treatment isn't much better then the covid, its done to relief simptoms, and wait that the virus gets out of the system. The common med prescrived for flu is paracetamol.

[Edge-]

https://www.newsweek.com/2-arkansas-...sk-ban-1616688

Hundreds of kids quarantining, dozens testing positive, because the Death Cult wants to ban mask mandates for schools. Could these cases have all been avoided with masks? Probably not, but a great many may have been.

Arkansas has seen a 517 percent increase in the number of virus cases among people under the age of 18 between April and July, the state's top health official said. Nineteen percent of the state's virus cases are among that age group.

Guess they don't really care about the kids, actually.

[Granyala]

You said you were out doing things that week together, yes? Biking, scuba, peloton classes? If she had a fever, even if it subsided, don’t you think you both should have stayed home?

I had similar thought. It's not wise to exert oneself that much when the body is fighting an illness. Oo

[shimerra]

Considering the fact that it mostly kill the elderly (and to some extent men) one could say even if it would kill of a significant portion of the population it wouldn't have much of a long-term effect.

That'd be true if we weren't already seeing drops in birth rates because of COVID worsening an already worrying trend in many countries. And unlike the similar effect which was seen in the 1918 pandemic there's worry it wont bounce back and the decline will stick. That's gonna be a noticeable long term impact as some estimates put the decline at 5-10% and it could get worse.

Covid killed about 2 million last year confirmed. So definitely killed quite a few more given testing shortages or a complete lack in many parts. And that's with extreme measures taken to reduce deaths/spread. And there's a few studies that claim the lock downs saved millions more https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23F1G3 .

@Granyala and hey Economist here! Not a PhD but hope a masters is good enough for ya. You complain a lot about the short term issues caused by lock downs but ignore basically any long term problems with letting COVID go rampant. Like oh say what I mentioned above and declining birth rates among other things, and a big part of why your "lock downs in perpetuity" is even on the table is because of a half ass/incomplete measure to commit to them in the first place. There's data indicting the stricter lock downs and reducing the spread help promote a faster and stronger economic recovery over the long term. To put it more pithly lockdowns caused a little bit of short term pain for a bigger long term boost.

There's also the economic impact of having a sicker work force on wages and productivity, having to maintain distancing/covid protocols in the work place, etc.


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN2842WS

But evidence also suggest that stringent but temporary restrictions, could actually benefit the economic recovery because they reduce the spread of the disease. The International Monetary Fund, for example, determined here that while lockdowns “impose short-term costs” they may lead to “a faster economic recovery. The organization states that “by bringing infections under control, lockdowns may thus pave the way to a faster economic recovery as people feel more comfortable about resuming normal activities” ( bit.ly/2UXoIUy page 74).

They also make a point that lock downs don't have to be nation wide mass lock downs but can be targeted to areas of concern to minimize economic impact. It's an older article at this point but the information in it still holds and if anything time's shown the more right than wrong. The places that took COVID seriously with harsher restrictions tended to do better economically. The places that had your approach and whinged about lock downs and mask mandates, tended to do worse.

[caractacus]

That'd be true if we weren't already seeing drops in birth rates because of COVID worsening an already worrying trend in many countries. And unlike the similar effect which was seen in the 1918 pandemic there's worry it wont bounce back and the decline will stick. That's gonna be a noticeable long term impact as some estimates put the decline at 5-10% and it could get worse.

Covid killed about 2 million last year confirmed. So definitely killed quite a few more given testing shortages or a complete lack in many parts. And that's with extreme measures taken to reduce deaths/spread. And there's a few studies that claim the lock downs saved millions more https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23F1G3 .

@Granyala and hey Economist here! Not a PhD but hope a masters is good enough for ya. You complain a lot about the short term issues caused by lock downs but ignore basically any long term problems with letting COVID go rampant. Like oh say what I mentioned above and declining birth rates among other things, and a big part of why your "lock downs in perpetuity" is even on the table is because of a half ass/incomplete measure to commit to them in the first place. There's data indicting the stricter lock downs and reducing the spread help promote a faster and stronger economic recovery over the long term. To put it more pithly lockdowns caused a little bit of short term pain for a bigger long term boost.

There's also the economic impact of having a sicker work force on wages and productivity, having to maintain distancing/covid protocols in the work place, etc.


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN2842WS



They also make a point that lock downs don't have to be nation wide mass lock downs but can be targeted to areas of concern to minimize economic impact. It's an older article at this point but the information in it still holds and if anything time's shown the more right than wrong. The places that took COVID seriously with harsher restrictions tended to do better economically. The places that had your approach and whinged about lock downs and mask mandates, tended to do worse.

Is Sweden just an anomoly then as they had lighter restrictions than other European countries but are fairing better economically?

[Rasulis]

I had similar thought. It's not wise to exert oneself that much when the body is fighting an illness. Oo

Not like I could tied her down. Although technically I could. She only weight 105 lbs and I outweigh her by 60 lbs.

Anyway, I did not see any reason to argue about it. She was 101 in the morning and then back to normal at 97.5 in the evening of the same day. She said she was fine.

[Forogil]

That'd be true if we weren't already seeing drops in birth rates because of COVID worsening an already worrying trend in many countries.

I have seen the headlines, but are they true?
There's an increasing birth rates in other countries - like Germany; https://www.dw.com/en/baby-boom-or-b...tes/a-58028699
And in the US there are indications it was a decline followed by an increase - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2780572

And then there's a separate issue whether declining fertility rates are actually good or bad.

Covid killed about 2 million last year confirmed. So definitely killed quite a few more given testing shortages or a complete lack in many parts. And that's with extreme measures taken to reduce deaths/spread. And there's a few studies that claim the lock downs saved millions more https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23F1G3

That study was from June 2020; and stated that Europe could have policies driving R below 1.

In hindsight that was at best an optimistic estimate - but in reality it is just debunked bad science; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-3025-y

Although the NPIs that were considered have indisputably contributed to reducing the spread of the virus, our analysis indicates that the individual effectiveness of these NPIs cannot be reliably quantified.

Science-speak for: we don't know what works and you mangled your data too hard.

It seems unlikely to be a result of circumstance that lockdown was implemented in the 10 countries in which it had a large effect on Rt, and omitted in the single country in which the public events ban instead had a similar effect

(due to the pooling-part of the model) Science-speak for: your analysis stinks.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN2842WS
They also make a point that lock downs don't have to be nation wide mass lock downs but can be targeted to areas of concern to minimize economic impact.

They more importantly state that you don't have to have lockdowns (unless you think it sounds cool) but targeted interventions.

Limiting restaurants to outdoor seating (or seating capacity) doesn't sound like "lockdown"; neither is avoiding full arenas at football games.

Does it still have some economic impact? Yes.
Does it limit the spread of the disease to some extent? Yes, likely.
With higher vaccination rates (primarily in parts of the developed world - I still don't know what will happen in Japan and Australia) it seems even more unrealistic to go back to discussing full lockdowns.

- - - Updated - - -

Is Sweden just an anomoly then as they had lighter restrictions than other European countries but are fairing better economically?

Spoiler, the 11th country (noted above) that didn't fit into the flawed model from Imperial College without some seriously bad handling was: Sweden.

[PACOX]

https://twitter.com/rossjonesWXYZ/st...06707309146113

Even Fox and Friends are about to go at it because of shots.

[Granyala]

Like oh say what I mentioned above and declining birth rates among other things, and a big part of why your "lock downs in perpetuity" is even on the table is because of a half ass/incomplete measure to commit to them in the first place. There's data indicting the stricter lock downs and reducing the spread help promote a faster and stronger economic recovery over the long term. To put it more pithly lockdowns caused a little bit of short term pain for a bigger long term boost.

There's also the economic impact of having a sicker work force on wages and productivity, having to maintain distancing/covid protocols in the work place, etc.
The places that had your approach and whinged about lock downs and mask mandates, tended to do worse.

I don't whine about lockdowns. I don't care about them personally, because I am not the "go out and do stuff person".
Also I work in a School, so most of the lockdowns didn't affect me in neither work nor finances.

I know a lot of people that weren't so lucky though.

Still, Israel had relatively strict lockdowns and they have a high vaccination quote. If they are truly worried and contemplating locking down again, that means lockdowns during winter will always be a thing or at least for a couple more years. You use your masters to determine what that would mean for most businesses that have been kept alive with dwindling state funds as it is.

Will the economy eventually bounce back? Sure it will, after all the demand is still there. But it will take time.