Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[PACOX]

What do you mean by "researchers aren't sure the antibodies actually mean anything"?

If you can be reinfected like WHO suggests than the antibodies are as useful as a flu shot for the virus.

[Puupi]

What do you mean by "researchers aren't sure the antibodies actually mean anything"?

1. The results of antibody tests are unreliable.
2. There are both false positives and false negatives.
3. There is no guarantee of immunity regardless of antibodies.
4. Even if there is, we don't know for how long.

[Mayhem]

Chance would be a fine thing, except I can't just go get infected to achieve immunity before the supposed deadly second wave can I? There's a damn stupid lockdown on and I'm not in sensible Sweden.

I am sure you can find someone who's infected over the internet and meet each other in the next Evans Cycles or just increase your chances by hanging out at the next hospital's ER?

Get creative, just like you do when you project blame onto others.

[Gorsameth]

Nice, I just learned about this new unit of measurement:

People have trouble parsing big numbers. As seen in this thread with wonderful things like "1% isn't that much". So it makes sense to use other measurements to get through to people.

"a 9/11 in deaths every single day" helps to get through to people.

[stevenho]

If you can be reinfected like WHO suggests than the antibodies are as useful as a flu shot for the virus.

Yeah there is no proven data on that yet.

But you mentioned mortality rate - the antibody testing and data that emerges from it is precisely what puts COVID mortality rate at around 1% and that is quite important information.

[PhaelixWW]

1. The results of antibody tests are unreliable.
2. There are both false positives and false negatives.
3. There is no guarantee of immunity regardless of antibodies.
4. Even if there is, we don't know for how long.

I think the WHO information is being misunderstood a bit. I don't think #3 is really a thing. From what I've read, the WHO is just stating #4, as there's been plenty of evidence that the antibodies work to provide immunity in the short term. They're just warning that we don't know how short that term is.

[Mayhem]

Chance would be a fine thing, except I can't just go get infected to achieve immunity before the supposed deadly second wave can I? There's a damn stupid lockdown on and I'm not in sensible Sweden.

Or just volunteer at the nearest hospital in need? What're the next big three, maybe they need you? 2 flies with one stone, they get some help, you get infected!

Win/Win

[Poopymonster]

Nice, I just learned about this new unit of measurement:

Reminds me of when I saw this.

[Teleros]

I've seen the conspiracy theory in a few places, but a simple check showed that the Gates related stuff was never kicked out of India, with a HPV related association getting in minor trouble for some paperwork that they corrected.

The article merely says that Indian doctors asked the Gates Foundation to quit India, not that they were kicked out. The HPV stuff is working its way through to the Indian Supreme Court & from what I've seen, at the very least the Gates were retarded in funding the yahoos at PATH for their HPV work:

-snip-

Similarly stuff like "Gates’ operatives forcibly vaccinated thousands of African children against meningitis. Approximately 50 of the 500 children vaccinated developed paralysis." Well, the numbers don't even match up in two sentences...

If you'd clicked the link that comprised the 2nd sentence, it'd be obvious that Kennedy went from talking about large-scale issues to a specific example.

Is Gates pro-vaccine, sure. Has he put his fortune behind it? sure. Is he probably so egotistical that he thinks he knows better than the people he's vaccinating? I'd guess yes. How that translated into anything else they put forth is just more anti-vac delusion.

There is the infamous TED talk where he talks about using vaccines for population control. It's not like he didn't say those things.

Here's something important that you probably missed from one of the linked sources in that horrible anti-vaxxer opinion piece.

Finally someone gets it - actual information & data instead of "muh anti-vaxxer" stuff.

That's not at all what it's saying. Prior to mass OPV usage, India was recording 500-1000 paralyzations due to polio every day. That means that during the same 18 year time-frame, polio would have resulted in over 4.9 million paralyzations. Instead, less than 1/10th the numbers have been affected, and those numbers have continued to fall, now that polio has been eradicated from India.

"The last case of polio from India was reported in 2011. That year, the non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP) rate in India was 13.35/100,000, where the expected rate is 1–2/100,000."

1.25bn Indians in 2011, so with a rate of 13.35/100k, that's 166,875 cases of NPAFP, or 457/day. The higher expected figures were 2/100k, or 25k total, or 68/day. If your anti-polio vaccine is very nearly as bad as polio (457/day NPAFP vs 500-1000/day polio), I think you probably need a better vaccine or a better vaccine schedule (because per the paper, the incidents of NPAFP correlated well with the schedule of the polio vaccine). Can't, you know, better lab trials be done - because we both know that if someone said they had a cure for cancer - but half the people who took it died because of the drug, that drug would never make it past the regulators.

[Tuor]

[dribbles]

Or just volunteer at the nearest hospital in need? What're the next big three, maybe they need you? 2 flies with one stone, they get some help, you get infected!

Win/Win

Yeah I thought of snuffling around the clinical waste bins at my local hospital under cover of darkness but you know what? They haven't had a Covid death since March, so that's out.

Then I thought of volunteering at the 7 newly created in panic Nightingale hospitals with a capacity of 15k beds. Except they are empty too and all look like this, most yet to see a patient. So much for the health service being overwhelmed, wasn't that the only justification for the lockdown?

[Mayhem]

Yeah I thought of snuffling around the clinical waste bins at my local hospital under cover of darkness but you know what? They haven't had a Covid death since March, so that's out.

Then I thought of volunteering at the 7 newly created in panic Nightingale hospitals with a capacity of 15k beds. Except they are empty too and all look like this, most yet to see a patient. So much for the health service being overwhelmed, wasn't that the only justification for the lockdown?

I don't know what your government gave as justification for the lockdown. So about that Evans Cycles meet up, why's that out of question?

[Granyala]

Reminds me of when I saw this.

So Corona barely managed 34,6 millihitlers™. It has a long way to go.

[Poopymonster]

So Corona barely managed 34,6 millihitlers™. It has a long way to go.

The numbers for EPA is claimed to be from 2010. Humans are probably worth less to the government today.

[Granyala]

The numbers for EPA is claimed to be from 2010. Humans are probably worth less to the government today.

Oh I didn't calculate the value of human life, I calculated how much it killed compared to him. So the EPA figures are irrelevant.^^

[dribbles]

I don't know what your government gave as justification for the lockdown. So about that Evans Cycles meet up, why's that out of question?

Nearest store is miles away, probably not open, and would have to drive. Not sure the local constabulary would accept it if my excuse for essential travel was sorry officer am on my way to share spittle with a stranger at Evans Cycles.

What about tinder for a corona hook up? Better?

[PhaelixWW]

"The last case of polio from India was reported in 2011. That year, the non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP) rate in India was 13.35/100,000, where the expected rate is 1–2/100,000."

1.25bn Indians in 2011, so with a rate of 13.35/100k, that's 166,875 cases of NPAFP, or 457/day.

Dear god, no. For MANY reasons.

First, those rates aren't for the entire population of India; it's only the rate of children.

We calculated the number of paralyzed children each year which exceeded the expected numbers(assuming a NPAFP rate of 2/100,000) and the results are displayed in Table 2. A total of 640,000children developed NPAFP in the years 2000–2017, suggesting that there were an additional 491,000paralyzed children above our expected numbers for children with NPAFP.

You mathed out 166,875 cases a year, right? But the aforementioned Table 2 shows that the 2011 rate of 13.35 translates to 59,849 cases, which is roughly 1/3 of what you surmised. Furthermore, that's the peak rate, at the exact time that they eradicated polio. And it has subsequently fallen to a rate of 8.72 (38,232 cases) in 2017.

Also, I was partially mistaken before, because when I quoted the 1980s rate of 500-1000 paralyzations a day, I forgot to account for the fact that India only had a population of ~780 million then. Which means that, if you extrapolate to today, you'd be seeing ~500k cases of AFP per year instead of somewhere lower than 38k.

So we're talking some 92% better than without the OPV. Of course, the injection version would be better still.

[Mayhem]

Nearest store is miles away, probably not open, and would have to drive. Not sure the local constabulary would accept it if my excuse for essential travel was sorry officer am on my way to share spittle with a stranger at Evans Cycles.

What about tinder for a corona hook up? Better?

See, I knew you'd get creative, best of luck!

[Rasulis]

The numbers for EPA is claimed to be from 2010. Humans are probably worth less to the government today.

The EPA put a statistical value of 10 million dollar for human life. From EPA official website.

"The EPA does not place a dollar value on individual lives. Rather, when conducting a benefit-cost analysis of new environmental policies, the Agency uses estimates of how much people are willing to pay for small reductions in their risks of dying from adverse health conditions that may be caused by environmental pollution."

"Suppose each person in a sample of 100,000 people were asked how much he or she would be willing to pay for a reduction in their individual risk of dying of 1 in 100,000, or 0.001%, over the next year. Since this reduction in risk would mean that we would expect one fewer death among the sample of 100,000 people over the next year on average, this is sometimes described as "one statistical life saved.” Now suppose that the average response to this hypothetical question was $100. Then the total dollar amount that the group would be willing to pay to save one statistical life in a year would be $100 per person × 100,000 people, or $10 million. This is what is meant by the "value of a statistical life.” Importantly, this is not an estimate of how much money any single individual or group would be willing to pay to prevent the certain death of any particular person."

[Teleros]

Dear god, no. For MANY reasons.

Yikes, thanks though.