Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Coolthulhu]

Fine, fine. How about the Daily Telegraph?

Meleam S.p.A.? Interesting. Wanna know what S.p.A. means? It's an acronym for "joint-stock company". And the Daily Telegraph? Are you actually serious? Try Nature or Lancet, then we'll talk. Newspapers are literally unreadable for everything related to the pandemic due to their political bias (truth be told, they are unreadable about just any topic, given the average journalist's habit to ramble about anything and everything sine cognitio causae).
That's not to say peer-reviewed journals are immune from bias, personal vendettas, conflicts of interests and other flaws, but at least some of them retain a modicum of decorum, much unlike newspapers and InfoWars-like YouTube channels with videos struggling to hit 10k views.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, okay. I couldn't find any info on radioradio.it that wasn't in Italian, a language I don't speak. Thanks, that's how the google translated version read.

Google did a pretty good job at translating the article, but the article did a really poor job at conveying the video's content.

[Pohut]

And Russia now has had, 8 or 9 days of continuous 10k+ new cases per day, yet the deaths are very low.
And they are easing their "nor-working period" (seriously, wtf was that? Extended holiday?).
Yeah, this will not end well, they are on 3rd/4th spot now and it does not look like those 10-11k new cases per day will stop anytime soon.

There are 2 things that might get Russia through this:
1. Hardly anyone lives past 60 in Russia. All the potential Covid-19 victims been dead for 10+ years.
2. Mass BCG vaccination schedule (TB situation is Russia is as bad as in Africa). BCG vaccine seems to be helping against Covid-19 as well.

[Skulltaker]

Statistics =/= science.

Look, I can take a look at past data and say "well, based on that I should expect X many deaths this year". That's what we call a model. It does not mean that there will be X deaths this year, because, being created by a finite mind, it cannot take into account all the relevant variables, some of which (hi, wuflu) said finite mind doesn't even know exist. If in a wuflu-free year you have only a mild flu pandemic, your model will be wrong because fewer will die. If you have a severe flu pandemic that year, your model will be wrong because more people will die. Et cetera et cetera et cetera.


So when I tell you that Brexit is a roaring success, because I'm British you should just believe me? Cool.

= = =

Well, Troleros, you're correct, statistics are mathematics. It's quintessential for any form of science, but let's leave math out of this, it has it hard enough.

First of all, Trolores, no, you can't, first, you need the qualification to properly analyze the data in question.

And second of all, Del Trores, no, it isn't. Models like the ones in question work with a baseline of decades of data, not the one from the previous year. You use your basis and compare it to the trends of a developing situation, and then adjust the norm with your newfound parameters to predict how the developing situation will deviate from the norm, and the resulting curve is your model.

You're right that situations can change, though, Lorestros, that's why the models are regularly updated to encompass all new data. I'm sorry that your very very finite mind struggles with this.

And, no, but a simple excursion into other articles that said outlet has posted over the past few months paint a pretty grim picture as to the credibility of the site.

- - - Updated - - -

Unfortunately recording methods aren't comparable. As I've mentioned before, if you count every death that occurs in which the deceased tests positive for wuflu as death to wuflu, then you will inflate the numbers. "John had cancer & died of a heart attack" =/= "add John to the list of deaths due to cancer". Now it's true, there will also no doubt be reasons to deflate the numbers - people dying with no wuflu tests done on them, or false negatives etc. But again, that just means the numbers are still pretty suspect.

First of all, there is no such thing as wuflu. Second of all, please do explain how medical professionals determine the cause of death. You seem to have a very good understanding of the subject, Sorelet.

[Masark]

Also, if you really can’t afford to buy any, here’s a guide to make your own. Try to use cotton shirts.

That kind of mask is basically useless.

Testing shows you get about 12% filtration.

There are some potential homemade masks that come close to surgical mask effectiveness, but none that meet that standard.

[stevenho]

Hopefully, at this time, we already have enought data to compare.

In 4 month's, Covid-19 killed over 70k people just in the US, the Flu kills in average just 60k... per year. And then people keep poping out of no where and claim the virus is harmless, wtf, its not a matter of statistics, its a matter of brute numbers, in just 5 months this virus caused more harm then any other virus since the spanish flu.

If you are into posting about some random countries then how about this:

In 4 month's, Covid-19 killed over 280 people just in the Czech Republic, the Flu kills in average over 1400... per year. And then people keep poping out of no where and claim the virus is so scary, wtf, its not a matter of statistics, its a matter of brute numbers, considering that deaths are almost at 0 now this virus caused 20% of the harm then the common flu does every year.

Do you see how cherrypicking stats for a single country is ridiculous?

- - - Updated - - -

1. Hardly anyone lives past 60 in Russia. All the potential Covid-19 victims been dead for 10+ years.

Average life expectancy in Russia (2017): 72,12 years.
Moscow metro: 78 years.

[Masark]

Oh yeah, definitely. They say you should use double cotton layers to make it better but it won’t be as good as the n95 masks.

The paper tested that. Double layers of cotton didn't improve effectiveness.

[Sagarious]

This pandemic is really changing the world, I really hope it will pass soon.

[Shadowferal]

In one of the world’s largest slums, the fight against the coronavirus has turned into a struggle to survive

Dharavi’s one square mile — about three-quarters the size of New York’s Central Park — is home to nearly a million people, making social distancing a fantasy. It is also a place where the quest to save lives is pitted directly against the need to make a living.

India’s lockdown has caused unemployment on a massive scale: More than 100 million people have lost jobs or left the labor force, according to an analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs, and the unemployment rate has shot up to 27 percent.

India’s vast informal workforce “has no safety net, not even the bare minimum,” said Radhicka Kapoor, a senior fellow at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations in Delhi. Nine in 10 workers have no job protections, unemployment benefits or health insurance, Kapoor said, leaving them “very, very vulnerable.”

The real-life Dharavi is a teeming hub of small-scale industry. Families and workers pack into tiny one-room shacks along snaking lanes barely wide enough for two people. Toilets are communal, and water is scarce.

Everyone is anxious about the future. Those who run the small recycling businesses in the area, like Kamble’s parents, are facing huge losses. They cannot pay their workers’ salaries if they are closed. The situation is far more dire for those at the bottom of the labor ladder, like the ragpickers who earn just 3 cents per piece of plastic they find.

If the restrictions don’t end soon, Kamble said, “I don’t know what will happen to the people of Dharavi.”

In the afternoons, less than a mile away, Shedge, the widowed housekeeper, and her two 20-something sons spend the hot, sticky hours under a single fan, sitting around uneasily watching television.

They live in a room so small in parts that if you spread your arms, you can almost touch the sides. There is a counter for cooking in one corner and a tiny bathing area in another. At night, the three sleep on mats on the floor.

The family relies on a nearby communal toilet, where each visit costs 3 cents. These days Shedge avoids the early morning hours when the crowds are bigger, but even at 10:30 a.m., she sometimes waits in line for half an hour.

Shedge, a small woman with square glasses perched on her nose, has stopped paying bills and is down to her last $21. The family is eating mainly rice and lentils, thanks to supplies provided by a local activist. “The main challenge now is food and hunger,” Shedge said. “The rest we can figure out later.” If the lockdown doesn’t lift, she and her sons will start living on one meal a day, she said.

--------------------

...on one hand a roll of the dice. On the other, certain starvation.

[Logwyn]

If you are into posting about some random countries then how about this:

In 4 month's, Covid-19 killed over 280 people just in the Czech Republic, the Flu kills in average over 1400... per year. And then people keep poping out of no where and claim the virus is so scary, wtf, its not a matter of statistics, its a matter of brute numbers, considering that deaths are almost at 0 now this virus caused 20% of the harm then the common flu does every year.
.

How many people get the flu and how many die?
How many people get Covid-19 and how many die?

The number of people did not get Covid-19 because we shut down and it did not spread like the flu.

The problem was at the start we did not really know what this would totally do. Wasn't Wuhan at the beginning reporting like 50-60% of people get it die?
What if that was the case and we did not shelter in place and take steps to lower the numbers that did get it and half the world did die?

[breadisfunny]

Hopefully, at this time, we already have enought data to compare.

In 4 month's, Covid-19 killed over 70k people just in the US, the Flu kills in average just 60k... per year. And then people keep poping out of no where and claim the virus is harmless, wtf, its not a matter of statistics, its a matter of brute numbers, in just 5 months this virus caused more harm then any other virus since the spanish flu.

correction make that over 80k now.

- - - Updated - - -

How many people get the flu and how many die?
How many people get Covid-19 and how many die?

The number of people did not get Covid-19 because we shut down and it did not spread like the flu.

The problem was at the start we did not really know what this would totally do. Wasn't Wuhan at the beginning reporting like 50-60% of people get it die?
What if that was the case and we did not shelter in place and take steps to lower the numbers that did get it and half the world did die?

why are people still engaging with the obvious bad faith poster. like he's been posting disingenious garbage for the last what 100 pages?

[Zantos]

Immune for two months is not being generous. Other estimates put the lower range at 6 months to a few years.

Id like to see that since 1) I have a coworker whose sister lasted a month before catching it again and 2) there have been zero studies that even suggests it has Any immunity at all.

Right now, the answer is clear. We have no conclusive information on if and / or how long someone may or may not be immune. Here is one such article when talking about possible reinfections.

So that statement of "estimates" defies medical experts in the field who have the answer of "we don't know". Not to mention the other news that the virus is mutating. Though its trying to be less deadly, any mutation big enough could throw any immunity right out the window.

- - - Updated - - -

This pandemic is really changing the world, I really hope it will pass soon.

Honestly? Its showing how crappy humans are. People in the US attacking doctors and nurses. Killing police and guards over mask policies. Protests comparing a lock down for their own safety to Nazi camps. Willful disregard being displayed left and right for anyone's safety other then their own. How inability to handle This.

I mean, this should be a massive wake up call for Everyone in the US. Impacted or not, this has show that our government Can Not keep us safe. It can Not ensure we are prepared. It can Not ensure we even have enough to survive off of. We were not able or prepared to handle this. If this was worse, we would be dead.

[Granyala]

Oh, you're one of the people who think evolution isn't proven because it's called a 'theory', right?

To be fair: you have to differentiate between micro evolution (has been empirically proven) and macro (cross species) evolution, which is simply an extrapolation from observed micro evolution. Due to the time frames involved the latter has not been directly proven yet.

- - - Updated - - -

...on one hand a roll of the dice. On the other, certain starvation.

Aye, if that ain't hell, i don't know what is.

[Breccia]

Sigh...

Overloaded ventilator bursts into flames, killing five patients and forcing an evacuation of the hospital.

[Puupi]

Aye, if that ain't hell, i don't know what is.

War. War is hell.

And cocaine is a hell of a drug.

I'll see myself out.

[jonnysensible]

Sigh...

Overloaded ventilator bursts into flames, killing five patients and forcing an evacuation of the hospital.

damn thats proper fucking horrible.

I see russia and brazil are on big upward trends, not good.

Has anyone found any good information about problems after recovery from covid?

We always do this thing were we measure the dead but never the cost on the survivors.

[Forogil]

Let's go through it once more.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our...-misconception

They state that NYC has 15-21% infected. That gives that actual cases are 6-9 times actual cases, and combined with the number of deaths they give it indicates an IFR of 1-1.4% (or higher) - and they also state the IFR for a cruise ship to be 1%.
The chickenpox IFR comparison indicate that their IFR is above 0.29%, and since it's such a rough estimate it's likely that they mean it's higher.

They then state that to reach 200 million cases with 25k confirmed cases a day it will take well into 2021, i.e. about 300-600 days.
If actual cases are the same as confirmed cases it would be 8,000 days.
If actual cases are 6-9 times confirmed cases - as for NYC then it is 880 days or more, which is beyond 2021.

And if they have an IFR there is no need to count number of days to reach case-numbers to figure out the total number of deaths.

The text uses references 1-10, the reference list has 9 entries.

I don't see how anyone can claim that the numbers make mathematical sense.

Alright, I guess we're doing another round of this, then:

(NY numbers aside), their numbers make mathematical sense

I mean, you've steadfastly ignored the fact that, every single time, I've made it a point to specify the bolded above.

I see you still claim that the text make mathematical sense - when you ignore part of their numbers and use others.

I see no reason to continue this "discussion".

[PhaelixWW]

I see you still claim that the text make mathematical sense - when you ignore part of their numbers and use others.

Yup. Aside from the one piece of data, the rest of their data is all internally mathematically consistent. But that estimate is wrong, and is shown quite clearly by that same piece of data from the New York study.

I'm not sure why this is so hard for you to grasp; it really shouldn't be a difficult concept.

I see no reason to continue this "discussion".

Okay. Glad to see you've finally come around.

[breadisfunny]

Id like to see that since 1) I have a coworker whose sister lasted a month before catching it again and 2) there have been zero studies that even suggests it has Any immunity at all.

Right now, the answer is clear. We have no conclusive information on if and / or how long someone may or may not be immune. Here is one such article when talking about possible reinfections.

So that statement of "estimates" defies medical experts in the field who have the answer of "we don't know". Not to mention the other news that the virus is mutating. Though its trying to be less deadly, any mutation big enough could throw any immunity right out the window.

- - - Updated - - -


Honestly? Its showing how crappy humans are. People in the US attacking doctors and nurses. Killing police and guards over mask policies. Protests comparing a lock down for their own safety to Nazi camps. Willful disregard being displayed left and right for anyone's safety other then their own. How inability to handle This.

I mean, this should be a massive wake up call for Everyone in the US. Impacted or not, this has show that our government Can Not keep us safe. It can Not ensure we are prepared. It can Not ensure we even have enough to survive off of. We were not able or prepared to handle this. If this was worse, we would be dead.

a competent government might be able to.

[MCMLXXXII]

I see no reason to continue this "discussion".

I felt the same about 20 pages ago. It was back and forth without going anywhere. Not picking sides by the way between you 2 guys.

[Skulltaker]

To be fair: you have to differentiate between micro evolution (has been empirically proven) and macro (cross species) evolution, which is simply an extrapolation from observed micro evolution. Due to the time frames involved the latter has not been directly proven yet.

Very true.

Sigh...

Overloaded ventilator bursts into flames, killing five patients and forcing an evacuation of the hospital.

Wear and tear... was bound to happen.