Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Kathranis]

How badly did Trump telling his base to vote in-person backfire?

I'm curious to see if there is a spike in Covid cases in a few days. I know polling places had mask and social distancing requirements but lots of Trump supporters seem to be gathering before and after, not to mention protests and whatnot.

[Thekri]

Nobody is going to call it based on Georgia, that one is just going to be way too close. Nevada is looking like a guaranteed Biden win, and Arizona is safe, and that alone wins even without Pennsylvania BUT think the networks will be very nervous about calling based on Nevada+Arizona, because both are technically possible to see a surprise Trump comeback (Although it is extremely unlikely). So we might wind up in a wierd situation where some networks have called Arizona, and some Networks have called Nevada, but nobody has called both.

That changes if Pennsylvania flips though. 1 second after Biden has a lead there, you might as well call all three and Biden has 290 EVs. There is nothing red left to count in Pennsylvania, once that lead is gone, it stays gone. But I get the nervousness to call the race on just NV and AZ. Even though Penn and GA are technically irrelevant at this point.

[Thepersona]

Nevada is looking pretty safe for Biden. Assuming Arizona is actually sound, there shouldn't be too much that can throw it now.

I fully expect the last 10k votes in Georgia to break for Trump at exactly the ratio he needs to barely keep the lead. There is no way Raffensburger is going to give a close election to Biden, even if he has to fill out the last two thousand ballots himself.

There are 40k votes left in georgia tho. And Trump is ahead by 9.5k

[Felya]

Trump is always very wrong.

A good rule to remember.

Yeah, winning on his rhetoric than increasing his voter base, does not mean his political attacks were wrong to use.

A good to remember is to ask how he is wrong... his facts are wrong, because it’s all about the rhetoric. His rhetoric working is undeniable...

[Easo]

Thanks to those explaining about Nevada, got a good laugh out of it too.
I suppose one more day, then...

[Blur4stuff]

There's things Biden and dems won't be able to do if republicans control the senate. There's also a tremendous amount of good they can do. Lots of opportunities to improve the country and people's lives.

[Belize]

90.5k in PA. 320k left to count
9.5k in GA. 40k left to count

There's also 75-100K votes in PA that are counted but not released

[PhaelixWW]

90.5k in PA. 320k left to count
9.5k in GA. 40k left to count

Yeah, that block of ~6k votes that just got reported went for Biden in a 76/34% split. Good sign, as now Biden only needs ~62% of the remaining 40k in order to pull ahead.

[CastletonSnob]

Is AZ still safely Biden?

[kaid]

Sorry, but this is literally the dumbest fucking hot take I’ve seen on these forums and that’s saying a lot considering the number of trolls running around here.

Doing none of that above will be INCREDIBLY damaging to the Senate and GOP and it’s a SURE way for Mitch to lose Senate control in 2022.

By literally doing nothing, he’s setting himself up to lose even more support. Then the “liberal agenda” they’re desperately afraid of kicks into overdrive for 2 years.

Yes if you can have the dem house and dem president just flogging the senate who clearly are doing nothing thats a pretty solid message for the next election cycle. And biden can just do the appoint whoever you want temporary nonsense too and just put some super liberal people and nominate some more mainstream people and just go do you want a mainstream pick or do you want us to just pick who we want to really push the bar.

[Valdhammer]

How badly did Trump telling his base to vote in-person backfire?

I think it's the opposite. More states should have kept in-person voting places open. Where I live, I had no choice but to vote by mail. I was terrified about it as I had 0 faith my vote would arrive in time and be counted. I gotta believe there was a safe way to let more people vote in person.

[Felya]

Don't know.

Maybe people just vote for Trump because they dislike Biden's flawed rhetoric more?

Trump's success might not have anything to do with Trump at all.

What do you mean you don’t know? Trump has all of these hard core fans because they don’t like Biden and it’s not the rhetoric? Four years of drinking liberal tears and you don’t know? What ever...

- - - Updated - - -

Is AZ still safely Biden?

No, nothing is safe... it’s 2020...

[Thekri]

Is AZ still safely Biden?

Looks it. There are a suprising number of votes still out, but there is little reason to believe they are going to go for Trump in any where near the numbers he needs to compete. Biden is up by about 68k, and the votes that are left probably don't have nearly enough Trump votes in them to close that. In fact, Biden's lead may actually grow there.

[beanman12345]

They got Perdue to a runoff. fucking insiding trader for covid fucker. will probably win the special election but at least a nice FU for now.

[PhaelixWW]

I think it's the opposite. More states should have kept in-person voting places open. Where I live, I had no choice but to vote by mail. I was terrified about it as I had 0 faith my vote would arrive in time and be counted. I gotta believe there was a safe way to let more people vote in person.

In-person mail-in ballot drop boxes seem to work just fine.

[Felya]

Trump out performed the polls as he did in 2016. Despite his actual policies he sells himself as a populous and people believe him. There is also a large group of Americans looking for real change. It's why you had two time Obama voters vote for Trump, IMO. I see a lot of people simply voting against the what can be viewed as ruling governance class. Bernie and Trump don't fall within that category and Obama use not too either.

We have 2 years till midterms. I'm already looking to see how I can spend my time, money, and energy pushing for more progressive to get into the House and Senate. If Biden winds I don't think people should celebrate too much. From what I've heard Democrats have lost some congressional seats, and looking unlikely to take the Senate. Activism will continue to rise, and once we manage to turn the corner on this pandemic it will be even more prevalent.

Socialism is a populist economic policy... if a billionaire can convince the public he is populist, why can’t socialist? Democracy is a populist political concept... if an autocrat can convince the public he is populist, why can’t socialist?

Edit: Fucked up symmetry... am trying to work...

[Mihalik]

By literally doing nothing, he’s setting himself up to lose even more support. Then the “liberal agenda” they’re desperately afraid of kicks into overdrive for 2 years.

Have you been paying attention the past 12 years?

Not doing absolutely anything is the trademark of Moscow Mitch and he's been incredibly popular for it, because they know how to control the narrative. Shift the blame. Make the situation worse, then shift the blame.

[CastletonSnob]

What if GA and PA both go to Trump?

[Zan15]

A few thoughts. Vote by mail should seriously be outlawed. We have an Election Day, Allowing people to vote before that day is completely retarded. Split Wisconsin's and Michigan's Electoral Votes between the candidates. When it's as close as it was winner-take-all is completely retarded.

This is fucking hilarious coming from someone who constantly makes comments in favor of the electoral college and how the popular vote would ruin America. But yes, most people are absolutely in favor of splitting the electoral college votes in EVERY state. It might mean that there's never a Republican president for the next few decades, but it's far better than our current system.

But of course, you only want to split michigan and wisconsin, the two states Biden ripped away from Trump.

Ok lets split by current popular vote shall we!!!


BIDEN = 272.47

TRUMP = 255.91

I'LL EVEN SHOW MY WORK!!


Biden % Trump % Biden EC Trump EC
Alabama 9 36.30% 62.30% 3.267 5.607
Alaska 3 33.00% 62.90% 0.99 1.887
Arizona 11 50.50% 48.10% 5.555 5.291
Arkansas 6 34.50% 62.70% 2.07 3.762
California 55 65.30% 32.90% 35.915 18.095
Colorado 9 55.10% 42.30% 4.959 3.807
Connecticut 7 58.60% 39.80% 4.102 2.786
Delaware 3 58.80% 39.80% 1.764 1.194
Dc 3 92.60% 5.20% 2.778 0.156
Florida 29 47.80% 51.20% 13.862 14.848
Georgia 16 49.30% 49.50% 7.888 7.92
Hawaii 4 63.70% 34.30% 2.548 1.372
Idaho 4 33.20% 63.70% 1.328 2.548
Illinois 20 55.20% 42.90% 11.04 8.58
Indiana 11 40.50% 57.40% 4.455 6.314
Iowa 6 44.90% 53.10% 2.694 3.186
Kansas 6 41.10% 56.70% 2.466 3.402
Kentucky 8 35.60% 62.70% 2.848 5.016
Louisiana 8 39.80% 58.50% 3.184 4.68
Maine 4 53.80% 43.20% 2.152 1.728
Maryland 10 63.10% 35.10% 6.31 3.51
Massachusetts 11 65.40% 32.30% 7.194 3.553
Michigan 16 50.50% 47.90% 8.08 7.664
Minnesota 10 52.50% 45.40% 5.25 4.54
Mississippi 6 39.21% 59.30% 2.3526 3.558
Missouri 10 41.30% 56.90% 4.13 5.69
Montana 3 40.40% 56.70% 1.212 1.701
Nebraska 5 39.10% 58.70% 1.955 2.935
Nevada 6 49.40% 48.50% 2.964 2.91
New Hampshire 4 52.60% 45.50% 2.104 1.82
New Jersey 14 59.50% 39.10% 8.33 5.474
New Mexico 5 54.20% 43.60% 2.71 2.18
New York 29 58.30% 40.40% 16.907 11.716
North Carolina 15 48.60% 50.00% 7.29 7.5
North Dakota 3 31.70% 65.00% 0.951 1.95
Ohio 18 45.20% 53.30% 8.136 9.594
Oklahoma 7 32.30% 65.40% 2.261 4.578
Oregon 7 56.90% 40.10% 3.983 2.807
Pennsylvania 20 48.70% 50.10% 9.74 10.02
Rhode Island 4 59.40% 39.20% 2.376 1.568
South Carolina 9 43.50% 55.10% 3.915 4.959
South Dakota 3 35.60% 61.80% 1.068 1.854
Tennessee 11 37.40% 60.70% 4.114 6.677
Texas 38 46.30% 52.20% 17.594 19.836
Utah 6 38.00% 58.30% 2.28 3.498
Vermont 3 64.90% 31.70% 1.947 0.951
Virginia 13 53.90% 44.50% 7.007 5.785
Washington 12 60.20% 37.50% 7.224 4.5
West Virginia 5 29.60% 68.60% 1.48 3.43
Wisconsin 10 49.40% 48.80% 4.94 4.88
Wyoming 3 26.60% 69.90% 0.798 2.097
272.4676 255.914

[Machismo]

Now you're just moving goal post.

Nope, I'm just supporting democracy.

Biden beat Bernie, because he got more votes.