Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[eschatological]

I have to admit, your sarcasm gives me some chuckles at times.

But this is one link which may show his approval rating among blacks is getting better than some may think.....https://www.fitsnews.com/2020/06/03/...rities-are-up/

A part of the article....

Something very surprising (and worth watching) within these numbers, though? Black Americans – the ostensible victims of Trump’s “racism” – are backing Trump in stronger numbers after the riots, according to the YouGuv data. Last week, 12 percent of black voters approved of the job Trump was doing – including 7 percent who strongly approved. This week, 18 percent approved – including 11 percent who strongly approved.

The margin of error overall is 3 points. Within racial categories, it would be even higher. IE, well within the margin of error.

But I mean, sure, congrats on finding one poll from the May 30-June 3, long before countrywide riots happened. Hell, it even was sampling from a period the day before the photo op where Trump had protesters gassed. Those numbers are down in the most recent surveys. His strong approve among blacks is 6% this past week.

[Ghostpanther]

The margin of error overall is 3 points. Within racial categories, it would be even higher. IE, well within the margin of error.

But I mean, sure, congrats on finding one poll from the May 30-June 3, long before countrywide riots happened. Hell, it even was sampling from a period the day before the photo op where Trump had protesters gassed. Those numbers are down in the most recent surveys. His strong approve among blacks is 6% this past week.

Sorry to disappoint you, but there are other polls showing his approval among blacks is higher than it was in 2016. But I am sure you will dismiss them also.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...-black-voters/

Trump’s approval rating is at 41% among likely black voters according to a new Rasmussen poll.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...s-near-20-poll

President Trump earned a 19% job approval rating from black voters in the latest Fox News poll as the Trump reelection campaign works to double the 8% support he received from this cohort four years ago.

[Benggaul]

The margin of error overall is 3 points. Within racial categories, it would be even higher. IE, well within the margin of error.

But I mean, sure, congrats on finding one poll from the May 30-June 3, long before countrywide riots happened. Hell, it even was sampling from a period the day before the photo op where Trump had protesters gassed. Those numbers are down in the most recent surveys. His strong approve among blacks is 6% this past week.

*sputter sputter sputter* "B-b-but polls don't matter!"

[eschatological]

I'm sorry, quoting Rasmussen/FoxNews polls that're then published by Ben Shapiro and the Washington Times is fucking nonsense and you know it.

[Ghostpanther]

I'm sorry, quoting Rasmussen/FoxNews polls that're then published by Ben Shapiro and the Washington Times is fucking nonsense and you know it.

I do not share your opinion. And it seems this time, I actually predicted a correct response for once. lol!

And for your knowledge, Rasmussen was the second most accurate pollster in 2016. I would link that info also, but with you, I would be wasting my time I am afraid.

[eschatological]

I do not share your opinion. And it seems this time, I actually predicted a correct response for once. lol!

And for your knowledge, Rasmussen was the second most accurate pollster in 2016. I would link that info also, but with you, I would be wasting my time I am afraid.

Rasmussen had Hillary winning by 2.

They, as usual, had slanted their polling to favor the conservative candidate, and Trump pulled out a rather miraculous win by less than 70k votes in 3 key battleground states.

That doesn't make Rasmussen accurate. They were badly wrong in 2018, and have been badly wrong for the better part of a decade.

[Ghostpanther]

Rasmussen had Hillary winning by 2.

They, as usual, had slanted their polling to favor the conservative candidate, and Trump pulled out a rather miraculous win by less than 70k votes in 3 key battleground states.

That doesn't make Rasmussen accurate. They were badly wrong in 2018, and have been badly wrong for the better part of a decade.

Not really.....https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...tion_forecasts

The forecasts

With the history, arithmetic, and climate considered, we can now turn to the systematic estimates of how these factors are likely to come together in this year’s election. What follows are four independent congressional forecasts that inform us about what we should expect to come out of this election. Table 1 presents a summary of these congressional forecasts. Although there are differences among them, two points are common. This is likely to be a very good year for the Democrats in the House of Representatives. In fact, all four forecasts expect a Democratic House majority. In the Senate, Republicans are likely to hold their own and perhaps pick up a seat or two. So, on to the forecasts. For more details about the forecasts, see the links at the top of this piece.

Seems pretty accurate to me. The Republicans did pick up two seats in the Senate. And the Democrats did very well in the House races.

[Felya]

Not really.....https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...tion_forecasts

Uhm... that’s an editorial that is based on four models, that are not Rasmussen polling...

Generic Congressional Ballot
Published November 5th
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...l_ballot_nov05

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Nice try though...

Your article is from September 15th:

So far, we’ve published models from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz and from the team of Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson, and Christopher Wlezien. Both suggest the Democrats are favored to retake the House majority. This week, we’re featuring two more models from James Campbell and the team of Charles Tien and Michael Lewis-Beck. They too forecast a Democratic House takeover, and of a bigger size than the two previously published models.

Those are not Rasmussen pollsters... your article is not only 2 months early, but also has nothing to do with Rasmussen.

But... I think am on ignore... so keep spreading misinformation...

[Endus]

Seems pretty accurate to me. The Republicans did pick up two seats in the Senate. And the Democrats did very well in the House races.

Data trumps feelings.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Rasmussen is consistently one of the most inaccurate major pollsters.

[Felya]

Rasmussen is consistently one of the most inaccurate major pollsters.

To add to my above post...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_U...ates_elections

Popular vote margin: Democratic +8.6%

They were off by 9.6% in 2018 midterms... thats nearly a 10th...

[cubby]

For one, I think he will get more African American votes this time than in 2016. Will it be enough? Time will tell. The polls are not looking good at the moment for him. But they have been improving a little lately. He is in better position according to the polls now, than he was in 2016 this same time of the year.

I still think it will be a very close race and with the mail in voting, we may have to wait weeks after Nov.3 to know for sure who won.

What in the holy hell makes you think he'll get more black votes this year than in 2016? I am genuinely curious...because that is just insanity talking. Actually, come to think of it, Trump said something similar in the Axios implosion, didn't he?

Are you still chugging the kool-aid Ghosty....

- - - Updated - - -

It can't be Susan Rice. She's been too much a part of the "Obama scandal" machine for too long. Biden managed to largely escape that, she didn't.

Harris has her issues, but they're mainly issues that people on the very Left of the spectrum have, and we've seen this primary season that those people don't show the fuck up anyways. The whole "tough prosecutor" thing can't be used against her by Republicans because they love that shit, and she intimidates them. Her questioning in Congressional hearings should be enough to make Mike Pence piss his pants in a debate. Susan Rice seems too professionally polite to asshole Republicans, very much like Obama.

If these are the two on the short list, it has to be Kamala. She doesn't bring much in terms of electoral math, being from California, but she has (generally) wide support among Democrats whenever they see her in attack mode, and she has no scandals that Republicans can really use. There might be some minor blowback to the left of her, but oh well.

Plus, Biden has a chance to bury the hatchet with the race stuff she accused him of in a debate. "I was angry, and didn't respond well when Senator Harris first mentioned suchandsuch and my position on suchandsuch. But after months of listening, of speaking to the wonderful people of this country, I've learned something new." Etc.

Her issues among black people (in re: her run for Presidency) was largely about her electibility. I predict that they'll still turn up for her if she's on the ticket as VP.

I agree - it just cannot be Rice. If Harris and Rice are truly the final short list, than it has to be Harris. Rice has never won an election, she's never campaigned - it would be ridiculous to throw her into such an important race where she has to learn almost everything from the ground up (given her truly illustrious career in the Executive Branch - I'm not disparaging that in the least, just to be clear - but it's an entirely different ballgame).

Plus all the Obamagate bullshit that would (unfairly) galvanize the Right Wing Idiocy.

What surprises me is that Bass is now being listed as a red herring. She is a far better choice than Rice. I'm still irrationally stuck on Abrams as well...but that ship seems to have sailed.

When does he announce?

[Edge-]

He has over 90% approval within the Republican party.

I don't think that's as significant as you think it is, and honestly I'd argue that's more depressing than anything.

They do not care about his personality.

Quite the contrary, it's not his policies they care for in the slightest. When he was vigorously anti-mask, they were. When he suddenly became pro-mask, they did too. Because it's about him and his personality. This isn't a matter of policy, it's a cult of personality.

For one, I think he will get more African American votes this time than in 2016.

Is it that time he called African nations shithole countries? Those times he repeatedly attacked athletes of color for peaceful protests? The constant dog whistles to "Suburban wives" warning that "the poors are coming"? Was it those times he snubbed people like John Lewis, a civil rights legend, and tried to claim credit for some of his work? How about the time he was asked about police violence against black people and responded by saying "more white people are killed!"?

I mean, there are just so many times he's reached out to or worked to help the black community to choose from, it's difficult.

[Benggaul]

When does he announce?

I would assume via telecom at the convention.

[Felya]

For one, I think he will get more African American votes this time than in 2016.

What? Trump retweeted “White Power” screaming supporter by accident... I don’t think people will forget.

[Paranoid Android]

Let's talk about Kanye West. First and no offense, but I'm not posting in a joke thread about Kanye 2020 or who will be his VP.

Yes, in a big picture is it a farce and hopefully should not impact the election. Yet, the GOP is playing dirty politics to get him on the ballot in key states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.

MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: Kanye West Presidential Bid Revealed As Highly Coordinated Republican Operation to Suppress Black Vote for Biden https://t.co/faB5tPNzEG

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/sta...099826178?s=19

So it is reported that the people helping to file are GOP operatives. Is this legal and legit? Yes.

Here were it is dirty. Kanye is ill. I will get pushback saying he is an egomaniac and narcassit. I believed that also but giving him benefit of the doubt on his mental illness. In short Kanye is being exploited.

This. Is. Insane.

At least 5 Republicans are trying to get Kanye West on the ballot in 5 states to split the Biden vote.

https://t.co/We3NA11WRZ

https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/...510198273?s=19

Of Kanye West's 18 electors in Ohio, six appear to live at the same address in Cleveland

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/statu...400431104?s=19

Now we are talking about the legality of him getting on the ballot. If you remember Kanye was removed in New Jersey. Nothing certain on these states but seems sketchy.

Will Kanye sway the election? No idea. Likely any Kanye voter would not have voted in the first place. But they could mess with polling or exit polls by saying they were Biden but now Kanye.

You know we have a thread in here and we have evidence that discouraging people not to vote or meme vote can be harmful.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

The news is absolutely gone rogue and become nasty, disgusting, bias, and completely garbage. The "news" should not be able to trash talk a political figure, along with their followers, and cut and edit clips to make it seem something they said is controversial when it's not what they said/taken out of context and making another look like they're the savior and using old and bloated statistics to mislead people, creating a confirmation bias to create smoke and mirrors as if the People have chosen the victor already. SAD!!

[Felya]

The news is absolutely gone rogue and become nasty, disgusting, bias, and completely garbage. The "news" should not be able to trash talk a political figure, along with their followers, and cut and edit clips to make it seem something they said is controversial when it's not what they said/taken out of context and making another look like they're the savior and using old and bloated statistics to mislead people, creating a confirmation bias to create smoke and mirrors as if the People have chosen the victor already. SAD!!

More testing helps deaths per tested numbers, it’s not making him look worse, when he is using it to show it’s fine. Arguing that you had 12000 people at your rally, when asked if it was a good idea to have 6000, is idiotic. Responding with “it is what it is” to 1000 dead Americans per day, is barbaric...

@cubby check the post times from my response to you a minute ago, in another thread and this comment... I’m ms Cleo... lol

[Ripster42]

What? Trump retweeted “White Power” screaming supporter by accident... I don’t think people will forget.

The quotation marks should have been around the word "accident."

[Felya]

The quotation marks should have been around the word "accident."

I usually do that... was a mistake not to.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

remember this when CNN said "it's illegal to view something that's about someone else and that you're not supposed to get news from other sources but from them and them only?