Mafia #FFA500 - Monsters Among US

[TimeskipPistol]

And just for Robo as for why I'm pushing the lynch on you.

If you're scum, great.

If you're town? Honestly, you're the only person I fully trust to make full use of the ghost role. I firmly believe that you'd continue to analyze and theorize and share all your findings with us.

So my reasons arent entirely fluffy. They're just super selfish.

[Kryllian]

There is also chances that the Vamps/wolves hit each other with attempted recruiting, then forcing them into NK the following night.

If their recruit fails, they either targeted the other team or a witch. If they attempt a kill the following night they have a 50% chance of dying themselves since killing a witch means the killer also dies. No one in their right mind would attempt a kill on that fail until they have to. More likely they'll wait until they have two fails and a big enough team that they get a redirect bonus and try to redirect one fail to another fail.

[SatsuBL]

What about the people that just hop on for no reason

I think they do it either from self preservation or they don't care. Trick here is try to figure out if they are doing it for no reason or they have a reason.

[JynxieJ]

So whats your take on me not reacting and switching my vote to you?

That is your right to switch your vote to me. I wouldn't take it wrongly. As it is day 1 and the fluff is very much alive.

[Xanjori]

If their recruit fails, they either targeted the other team or a witch. If they attempt a kill the following night they have a 50% chance of dying themselves since killing a witch means the killer also dies. No one in their right mind would attempt a kill on that fail until they have to. More likely they'll wait until they have two fails and a big enough team that they get a redirect bonus and try to redirect one fail to another fail.

Yeah maybe, but there are chances they get real unlucky and fail to recruit some 5 nights in a row. There is time for town, but its definitely a hard game to win while staying as town. I've seen these kinda games before, often it comes down to one of the cult offering up information in exchange for revealing themselves, and offering a spot to the town that vote with them. How we stop it getting to that point...I don't really know. I get the feeling town aren't meant to win this game, but if we get lucky we can.

[Firebert]

So what you are saying is if you die as a Townie you can't win as recruitments are inevitably going to wash over the entire town, so No Lynch is the best way to ensure a personal victory if you are Town?

This implies that lynching is scummy?

Unvote

[Xanjori]

No, voting no lynch is a good way to try and stay alive, play the long con and win as one of the factions. Its betting that town wont score the good fortune needed to win the game.

Lynching is taking a gamble. If you do hit one of the 4 scum its a big blow, but its a long shot.

[Kryllian]

Lynching is literally the only way we can win as town. Without a dr to block kills, a cop to investigate, or a NK of our own, we will never eliminate the wolves/vamps without attempting lynches. And yes, we have a good chance at a mislynch but all a no-lynch does is delay the rate at which we get to endgame without improving our chances of getting there as town.

The only way I see a no-lynch being a good idea at this point is if we do a quick no-lynch vote every day phase and basically let this game play out in the night phases. Then townies will win if we are recruited AND that side wins the night battles. But Witches are screwed by doing that since they can't be recruited.

- - - Updated - - -

And before anyone points out I posted about no-lynching as an option early in the game, I said I felt bad about taking out players early when we haven't played in so long. But the ghost feature lets them still play so that thought was negated.

[Virothe]

No, voting no lynch is a good way to try and stay alive, play the long con and win as one of the factions. Its betting that town wont score the good fortune needed to win the game.

Lynching is taking a gamble. If you do hit one of the 4 scum its a big blow, but its a long shot.

No voting is dumb and always leads to a town fuck up, not because it's inherently bad but because it's so easy to utilize against the person who promoted it's use. In a cult game with seemingly at least 2 recruiters, we're going to lose ground much more quickly not lynching people than we will lynching people because at the very least the people we lynch can't be utilized against us later in the game.

We no lynch tonight - > Two get recruited to either side - > Both sides push for no lynch promoter to be killed (Because really you'd be stupid to recruit said person) - > We just lost five town members at least given the likelyhood of recruitment the following night.

- - - Updated - - -

We NEED to kill a cult recruiter by night 2 or we're done 100% and your victory just comes down to who recruits you.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Thank you Krylian for the breakdown in the math.

Sounds like this game is pretty much hopeless for town, unless by a miracle we just keep hitting scum. We won't though. Guess I shouldn't get too invested at this point since this seems like a lost cause.

I guess I'll take the gamble but IDK who to vote for. Robo seems to be the popular train atm but I'm indifferent to him.

- - - Updated - - -

Current vote tally

Bageloaf voted for Robozerim but he didn't unvote first.

Robozerim - 4 (Listo95, Catta, TimeskipPistol, SatsuBL)
Listo95 - 3 (dupti, Robozerim, Bageloaf)
Marack - 2 (JynxieJ, Blood Fox)
TimeskipPistol - 2 (lora, Marack)
Graeham - 1 (Kryllian)
Catta - 1 (Xanjori)
Lora - 1 (Bwonsamdi)
Foxximcleod - 1 (Val the Moofia Boss)
No Lynch - 1 (Graeham)

[Graeham]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's 'hopeless'. There's been quite a few games where things have seemingly been stacked in favour of one side only for things to play out in a way even the mod could not predict.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

I'd vote dupti because I still have scores to settle with him... though I don't remember what was all about actually. I just remember that I do. I don't think people will switch to dupti before the day is over, so I should probably pick someone with at least 2 votes.

unvote

vote TimeskipPistol

[Virothe]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's 'hopeless'. There's been quite a few games where things have seemingly been stacked in favour of one side only for things to play out in a way even the mod could not predict.

Eh, town always starts on the lower end of possibility for a win. town being the underdog story is kinda the point of the game, all it takes is some solid luck and good insight for us to win. It's rarely hopeless though.

- - - Updated - - -

I'd vote dupti because I still have scores to settle with him...

Meh I've let go of past grudges at this point personally :P

[Graeham]

Unvote

I'll give some thought as to where I want to shift my vote, then.

- - - Updated - - -

How many hours do we have left, exactly? I'm terrible with converting time zones...

[Val the Moofia Boss]

How many hours do we have left, exactly? I'm terrible with converting time zones...

5 hours 25 minutes

[Blood Fox]

Meh I've let go of past grudges at this point personally :P

I will never forgive and never forget

[Virothe]

I will never forgive and never forget

Well good thing I never crossed you then, We've always gotten along kinda well I thought XD

[TimeskipPistol]

I'd vote dupti because I still have scores to settle with him... though I don't remember what was all about actually. I just remember that I do. I don't think people will switch to dupti before the day is over, so I should probably pick someone with at least 2 votes.

unvote

vote TimeskipPistol

If you're indifferent to Robozerim, then why not vote him? Why move it onto me five hours before deadline?

Is the sheep your scumdaddy?

[Val the Moofia Boss]

i like robo slightly more than you

[TimeskipPistol]

Good to know.