Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Saradain]

Oh you wanted a citation

A tweet versus actual journalists. Cute.

A tweet without anything but words saying "it happened". I could make a Twitter account pretending to be Putin and say anything, you'd gobble it up.

[Cynical Asshole]

I didn't realize South Africa's President is synonymous with AFRICA and its 1.4 billion people and 54 countries.

Guess I learned something new today.

Could you try not to start your day with alcohol? Why can't you just be normal?

Poor and unstable countries are always allies of Russia and China. So yes, you can safely assume that the entire African continent will throw their lot in with Russia and China in WW3. Not to mention China already bought off a bunch of them with the belt&road thing.

[Elder Millennial]

Poor and unstable countries are always allies of Russia and China. So yes, you can safely assume that the entire African continent will throw their lot in with Russia and China in WW3. Not to mention China already bought off a bunch of them with the belt&road thing.

These unhinged delusional takes legitimately boggle the mind.

China itself seems utterly uninterested in throwing in its lots with Russia. Also what the fuck has WW3 have to do with anything? Also how is it that the whole African continent didn't join the USSR then?

There are a handful of African countries with Chinese connections, but even half of those have already soured horribly.

I swear to fucking God, Yuppies utter brain rot is spreading.

Not a single fucking African country would risk it's existence so Putin can take a ruined village somewhere in Eastern Ukraine.

Dial down the delusions. I know you're from some Eastern European hellhole, but I told you before, stop projecting your personal traumas and delusions onto others.

[YUPPIE]

China itself seems utterly uninterested in throwing in its lots with Russia.

No, the Ukraine war is meaningful for China because Russia's success will mean they will feel emboldened to seize Taiwan. I know for a fact the only reason they haven't invaded Taiwan yet is noticing how fucked up Russia has it, so they're assessing the situation as it goes on. Also, providing minor support of course.

[Elder Millennial]

No, the Ukraine war is meaningful for China because Russia's success will mean they will feel emboldened to seize Taiwan. I know for a fact the only reason they haven't invaded Taiwan yet is noticing how fucked up Russia has it, so they're assessing the situation as it goes on. Also, providing minor support of course.

Citation fucking needed for the bolded delusions.

Stop.with.the.unhinged.claims.

[Gabriel]

No, the Ukraine war is meaningful for China because Russia's success will mean they will feel emboldened to seize Taiwan. I know for a fact the only reason they haven't invaded Taiwan yet is noticing how fucked up Russia has it, so they're assessing the situation as it goes on. Also, providing minor support of course.

The Ukrainian war is meaningful to China because they get to feast on the carcass of Russia and steal Siberia once Russia is beaten soundly enough. They'll provide minor support to Russia just to keep the conflict going and for Russia to get more of their male demographic killed.

[Forogil]

"Fraction of their power" is really misunderstood here. Power is not synonymous with = manpower. Manpower is an element, but it's utterly pointless to mobilize 100% of your available manpower (everyone between the ages of 16 and 60 that can hold a gun) if you can't train them, put guns in their hands, get them to the front lines, keep them supplied etc.

True, my point was just that using drafted soldiers wasn't a good indicator of that; since large countries have used that before in unsuccesful unpopular minor wars.

Specifically since Russia has a conscript army the general idea is that you have trained the conscripts in advance and have equipment in storage ready before a major war. That's why officially Russia had about 3k Tanks in 2022 and 10k in storage ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...ipment_summary ).

However, since the war isn't that popular in Russia it wasn't possible to mobilise the personnel that was already trained, and instead they drafted new ones.
To be mostly trained in place, since Russia doesn't have a tradition of separate training regiments.

And most of the tanks in storage were actually not usable and Oryx did already in February report that they lost at least 2k tanks - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/09/e...-ml/index.html

Here's something I only found out recently.

As the US was mobilizing for WW2 (this at a time where there was still the perception that the Germans might knock the Soviets out) the military projected it would need 250 ARMY divisions to beat the Germans alone. (WW2 US divisions were 15k troops, so that's 3 million 750 thousand troops). And of course these divisions would have had to be refiled etc. In the end the US ended up setting up 91 Army divisions.

The realization was....that despite of actually being able to technically raise those 250 divisions and despite of the immense logistical and industrial capabilities of US...even the US would have not been able to actually gear, supply and most importantly get across the ocean and onto the battlefield 250 divisions. Even worse, the affect on the labor force would have been so severe that in turn it could cause industrial shortages.

The second part is an important consideration for a total war. You don't only need people in uniform, but also people making the military hardware.

Currently the US is spending 3.6% of GDP on defense; SIPRI estimated that Russia spent 4.1% during 2022, and Ukraine spent 3.1% in 2021.
Both of those figures may look impressive, but only for peace-time.

During WWII the US figure was above 40%; in Germany it reached 75% - for comparison Ukraine was at 34% in 2022 (with a smaller GDP) - but that doesn't include foreign donations as far as I understand.

Russia is trying to increase their spending - but not those levels, due to a number of reasons - corruption, and that the war isn't popular enough in Russia.

- - - Updated - - -

Russia claims to have taken out a bunch of Leopard tanks, but in the end they were just farming equipment.

I know farmers are Russia's natural enemy, but it's hilarious for them to think that Ukraine would just leave high end tanks in the middle of a field for no reason.

On a related note - Russian have announced that soldiers who destroy Leopard tanks get a bonus of about 1k$.

[Cynical Asshole]

On a related note - Russian have announced that soldiers who destroy Leopard tanks get a bonus of about 1k$.

Oh good. Motivating soldiers to die doing some stupid shit for a bunch of money.

[Corvus]

On a related note - Russian have announced that soldiers who destroy Leopard tanks get a bonus of about 1k$.

And that is how you get inflated claims. Kind of like the Luftwaffe in ww2 - you got medals for every X number of kills. And so they tended to pad their numbers, like one pilot in north Africa who claimed to have shot down 5 hurricanes in one day. Problem was the RAF lost no hurricanes that day.

[Gabriel]

On a related note - Russian have announced that soldiers who destroy Leopard tanks get a bonus of about 1k$.

Oh good. Motivating soldiers to die doing some stupid shit for a bunch of money.

And that is how you get inflated claims. Kind of like the Luftwaffe in ww2 - you got medals for every X number of kills. And so they tended to pad their numbers, like one pilot in north Africa who claimed to have shot down 5 hurricanes in one day. Problem was the RAF lost no hurricanes that day.

And the system is based on superiors reporting their subordinates destroying said tanks.

>"Happy to hear you destroyed that tank, comrade Mobik."
>"I-I did? Yes of course comrade sir."
>"Here's your $300 reward as promised."
>"I thought it was $1000?"
>"Ohh sorry my mistake here is your $200 reward as promised, or would you prefer a bullet to the back of your neck and $100 to your next of kin?"
>"Thank you comrade sir."

[Cynical Asshole]

And the system is based on superiors reporting their subordinates destroying said tanks.

>"Happy to hear you destroyed that tank, comrade Mobik."
>"I-I did? Yes of course comrade sir."
>"Here's your $300 reward as promised."
>"I thought it was $1000?"
>"Ohh sorry my mistake here is your $200 reward as promised, or would you prefer a bullet to the back of your neck and $100 to your next of kin?"
>"Thank you comrade sir."

No need for that. All the bonuses are to be paid at the end of the war...provided any survivors are entitled to it.

[YUPPIE]

Should Hungary be considered one of Russia's firmest allies now? Orban has long been a sycophant of Putin's, but now Hungary is holding Ukrainian POWs hostage.

Ukraine said it has established the location of 11 captured defenders who, after being captured by the Russians, are being held on the territory of Hungary.

This is reported by Oleh Kotenko, Commissioner for issues of persons missing under special circumstances.

[Gabriel]

Should Hungary be considered one of Russia's firmest allies now?

In the same sense that you should be considered the foremost expert on geopolitics.

[YUPPIE]

In the same sense that you should be considered the foremost expert on geopolitics.

Why is Hungary providing passage for Ukrainian POWs at the hands of Russians? That's beyond merely treasonous for an EU member.

[Gabriel]

Why is Hungary providing passage for Ukrainian POWs at the hands of Russians? That's beyond merely treasonous for an EU member.

Because Orban is a piece of shit.

[Cynical Asshole]

Because Orban is a piece of shit.

I can't argue with that.

Austria, Hungary, Serbia and Turkey seem to have an unhealthy affinity for Putler.

[YUPPIE]

Why do you want war to be exciting?

I don't want it to be exciting in the sense I'd find it entertaining. I just thought the counteroffensive would be like a metaphorical fireball explosion that'd completely catch the Russians offguard, complete one-sided slaughter and advance.

[Poopymonster]

True, my point was just that using drafted soldiers wasn't a good indicator of that; since large countries have used that before in unsuccesful unpopular minor wars.

Specifically since Russia has a conscript army the general idea is that you have trained the conscripts in advance and have equipment in storage ready before a major war. That's why officially Russia had about 3k Tanks in 2022 and 10k in storage ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...ipment_summary ).

However, since the war isn't that popular in Russia it wasn't possible to mobilise the personnel that was already trained, and instead they drafted new ones.
To be mostly trained in place, since Russia doesn't have a tradition of separate training regiments.

And most of the tanks in storage were actually not usable and Oryx did already in February report that they lost at least 2k tanks - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/09/e...-ml/index.html


The second part is an important consideration for a total war. You don't only need people in uniform, but also people making the military hardware.

Currently the US is spending 3.6% of GDP on defense; SIPRI estimated that Russia spent 4.1% during 2022, and Ukraine spent 3.1% in 2021.
Both of those figures may look impressive, but only for peace-time.

During WWII the US figure was above 40%; in Germany it reached 75% - for comparison Ukraine was at 34% in 2022 (with a smaller GDP) - but that doesn't include foreign donations as far as I understand.

Russia is trying to increase their spending - but not those levels, due to a number of reasons - corruption, and that the war isn't popular enough in Russia.

- - - Updated - - -


On a related note - Russian have announced that soldiers who destroy Leopard tanks get a bonus of about 1k$.

I know it predates it, but that sounds so American it's almost a bullet ridden elementary school child.
No, we can't pay you more. There is no money to do it.
There is a financial bonus for achieving X.

[Azadina]

I don't want it to be exciting in the sense I'd find it entertaining. I just thought the counteroffensive would be like a metaphorical fireball explosion that'd completely catch the Russians offguard, complete one-sided slaughter and advance.

You thought. There's the whole problem. There's no success to be had with that premise.

[enigma77]

In the same sense that you should be considered the foremost expert on geopolitics.

Hahaha what a world that'd be