Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

SNIPPED VIDEO

Interesting interview from 2019 that I hadn't seen before. Kinda helps understand why I feel that peace talks or talks of neutrality are meaningless unless there is a regime change in Russia. Their aspirations stretch beyond Ukraine and the true goal has always been weakening the West. We should do everything in our power to make them fail and end Putin's regime.

No time to watch now but does this take the sanctions in play to account? I mean given the current sanctions I doubt Russia will be in a state to go for round two in 2024-2026. Not to mention that the relative element of surprise is gone.

I will admit, I ruled out Russia shelling its own depot...but "Russia is so incompetent they set their own ammo on fire" wasn't something I thought I had to discuss.

And yet, here we are.

Not necessarily incompetence, accidents do happen, but yeah...

I 100% get denying air strikes and saboteurs, the info we have suggests it was shelling anyhow, but..denying explosions?

This war has seen some REALLY weird twists and turns so I wouldn't be surprised if they'd deny explosions.

[Breccia]

Not necessarily incompetence, accidents do happen

"I set my ammunition on fire by accident" is incompetence.

[Poopymonster]

"I set my ammunition on fire by accident" is incompetence.

'Twas God himself gloriously showing up! On our side! Onward fodder!

[PC2]

Their aspirations stretch beyond Ukraine and the true goal has always been weakening the West.

Yeah I think that's because they're jealous and because Russian nationalists blame the West for internal problems the West didn't create.

We should do everything in our power to make them fail and end Putin's regime.

Sure that would be good to get new leadership but it's not okay to push for a kind of regime change that requires violence and isn't based on a large consensus among the citizens. That could easily make the situation worse.

[Breccia]

Seeing this do the rounds at the moment, seems to be going as well as expected so far.

The AP is also reporting that shelling has intensified.

Russian forces bombarded areas around Kyiv and another city, just hours after pledging to scale back military operations in those places to help negotiations along, Ukrainian authorities said Wednesday.

The shelling — and intensified Russian attacks on other parts of the country — tempered optimism about any progress in the talks aimed at ending the punishing war.

In announcing plans Tuesday to de-escalate near the capital and the northern city of Chernihiv to “increase mutual trust,” Russia’s military did not spell out what it planned to do, and the move was met with deep suspicion from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the West.

Soon after, Ukrainian officials said Russian shelling hit homes, stores, libraries and other civilian sites in Chernihiv and on the outskirts of Kyiv. Russian troops also stepped up their attacks around the eastern city of Izyum and the eastern Donetsk region, after redeploying some units from other areas, the Ukrainian side said.

Putin is just proving that there is no reason to trust him.

[Iphie]

You'd think this wasn't' possible at this stage, but here we are Putin is still being lied to about the war, apparently.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-...al-2022-03-30/

[Easo]

So Russia did backpedal today. You should have seen the butthurt on Russian interwebs yesterday - "Medinsky is a traitor!"
This might be placating those people. And it seems someone did not get that "reduction" does not mean "stopping".

To their benefit, probably.

It has pros, cons and caveats. This is quite complicated topic, honestly.

How much of that "better" relied specifically on Russian equipment and not on Ukrainian skill and effort, though?

Economically and militarily, integrating with Western equipment and Western partners has a much higher ceiling than with their Russian counterparts.

Especially if trade between Russia and Ukraine is going to be pretty much non-existent for a while.

You are aware that Ukrainian military industry was by now quite far away from Russian one and not dependant on it...? Technically - actually Soviet equipment, details-shmetails. As I said - it's a complex topic.

Didn't the Ukrainians hit Rostov early on already?

Not Rostov itself, but Millerovo military airfield at the start of the war with Tochka-U, at least one Su-30SM destroyed.

Ah, so you do have a sense of humour. "I am all for a realistic view". Very funny.

At this stage, I honestly don't see the point of you continuing to post. Your pretence of trying to educate is laughable.

Ok then, so I assume that you think Ukraine is doing fine and dandy, logistics are only for Russians, Ukrainians do not need fuel and artillery shells.

Don't tell me what to do and I won't tell you where to go.

The Ukrainians have some kind of intermediate range missile system, it is what they sunk that landing ship with and they have apparently been attacking Russian airfields with it for some time.

Seems like a possible candidate.

Tochka-U ballistic missile.

Ongoing in: They've got vast stockpiles of replacements and components ... seriously!



thought this has not been independently verified.[/I]

Just go ahead and say "only every hundredth tank!", why go so low with such bold claims?
I wonder how people even imagine taking "tank optics" looks like. It's not just some lens, it's a big ass mechanism that can easily reach 100kg and is partially integrated into turret.
Also what kind of article calls T-80U modern? It's more than 30 years old and Russia did not put this variant through major modernization unlike the earlier T-80BV models.
And commander shot himself? Uhu, sure. Unsurprisingly no one in the Westernm militaries are reporting this, of course it has not been independently verified. Just like that "dead Chechen general". People really do not understand that claims of both Ukraine's and Russia's MoD's are to be taken with bucket of salt because propaganda is not onesided.

What we do know is that Kantemirovskaja has most of the tank losses, majority without battle by abandoning them due to lack of fuel or getting stuck in the mud - for a supposed elite division. Leadership changes in the future are to be expected I guess.

Mariupol yday, still just about alive. Red arrows are russian advances.

Way too optimistic map, especially regarding northwest one, it should be fully gone. Funny though, Azovstal territory is probably overachieved in this map. Western reports are giving it days.

Eh, the opposite is true. Not only is old industry replaceable, but it will have to be replaced due to destruction. Unless you think Ukraine won't build new factories after this ends.

With what money...? They could barely keep Soviet ones alive (and doing that is probably the main reason why Ukraine could field the current army), ask Antonov. Western help is not gonna focus on military industry first, but more important shit, like the destroyed infrastructure.

Is it a chance to built everything by the standards/book? Yes. But I have my doubts, primary because money really really will be needed for other tasks.

[Gaidax]

Is it a chance to built everything by the standards/book? Yes. But I have my doubts, primary because money really really will be needed for other tasks.

And a chunk of that aid will be stolen anyway, because corruption is as much of a national sport in Ukraine as it is in Russia. I hope some will tame their appetites there a bit given the situation, but I am not optimistic on that front.

[dextersmith]

The AP is also reporting that shelling has intensified.



Putin is just proving that there is no reason to trust him.

Everyone saw that coming.

[Easo]

So New York Times has joined CNN in giving away Ukrainian positions, this time in a chemical factory.
What kind of fucking morons still do not get that geolocating is a thing?!

And a chunk of that aid will be stolen anyway, because corruption is as much of a national sport in Ukraine as it is in Russia. I hope some will tame their appetites there a bit given the situation, but I am not optimistic on that front.

A small point for hope is that good part of the rich people left the country right away - and I would guess not all of them will return.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Ok then, so I assume that you think Ukraine is doing fine and dandy, logistics are only for Russians, Ukrainians do not need fuel and artillery shells.

Don't tell me what to do and I won't tell you where to go.

I don't know how many times I have to educate you on this; I'm not the one claiming to know things about this topic. I'm interested in it, certainly, and I'm keen to learn what I can. But I'm not coming into this thread and claiming to know exactly what's happening. That's you.

Or at least it's you when it comes to negative stories about Ukraine. Then you have a direct line to god, and can make statements of facts as if they happened before your very eyes. You do it repeatedly, it's been pointed out to you by multiple posters.

Then when anyone else posts something negative about Russia, in you jump with your "fog of war" and make it clear that the poster can't possibly know what they claim about what's happening. Any evidence is hand-waved away by you. You patronise anyone that dares to make posts like that.

So if you don't like what I'm saying to you, that's on you. Because all I'm doing is holding up a mirror. If you don't like what you're seeing, I'd suggest that you change. But you won't, because it's crystal clear that you're just here to fanboy what Russia is doing. God knows why, but I'm assuming you must have some reasons.

[Kallisto]

You'd think this wasn't' possible at this stage, but here we are Putin is still being lied to about the war, apparently.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-...al-2022-03-30/

Wouldn't be surprised if by end of the week Putin will be getting maps saying everything east/south of Dniper is fully controlled by Russian forces.

[dextersmith]

You'd think this wasn't' possible at this stage, but here we are Putin is still being lied to about the war, apparently.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-...al-2022-03-30/

I would love to see his reaction upon finding out. He can't kill all his staff. How could a former intelligence agent be so uninformed? Everything is on the news.

[Fugus]

I would love to see his reaction upon finding out. He can't kill all his staff. How could a former intelligence agent be so uninformed? Everything is on the news.

Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug, especially when you made sure that people fear telling you stuff you don't want to hear.

[Rasulis]

Drug-Molecule Development Industry Hit By Ukraine Invasion

Russian attacks are endangering Ukraine’s world-leading medicinal chemistry industry, which supplies scientists across the globe with molecular building blocks needed for early drug development. Ukraine’s dominance in medicinal chemistry is little known beyond drug developers, who fine-tune a drug’s molecular design to give it the best chance of hitting the desired biological target in the body. Kyiv-based Enamine Ltd. has become a go-to supplier for drug-discovery scientists at academic laboratories and the largest pharmaceutical companies.

We may soon see a spread of drug-resistant TB in Eastern Europe. Maybe even spreading into Western Europe.

Russia's war with Ukraine is devastating for Ukraine's war on TB

"We have 20 patients we can't find, so we don't know if they are alive or not," says Dr. Olha Konstantynovska.

She's referring to the tuberculosis patients under her care in Kharkiv, where, as in much of Ukraine, the Russian war has disrupted lives – including her own. She and her three daughters evacuated to her father's home about 20 miles away after a bomb hit a building down the street from their apartment.

TB — a serious bacterial infection of the lungs — is a big problem in Ukraine. According to the World Health Organization, the country has the fourth highest incidence of the disease in Europe. And it has one of the highest rates of multidrug resistant TB anywhere in the world.

In the tuberculosis hospital in Kharkiv, where Konstantynovska treats TB patients, about 70 of the 200 residential beds are filled. That's because at the beginning of the war, her team discharged as many people as possible to allow them to evacuate.

"I called to the hospital to speak with one doctor and she said that hospital has no potato and bread," says Konstantynovska. "We have drugs, but we have no food."

She says that before the war, "people from the whole city of Kharkiv — two and a half million citizens — [went] to this dispensary to be checked for tuberculosis." It's also where those with TB could receive medication, treatment and even surgery if necessary. Konstantynovska is a member of the small army of people in Ukraine who've mounted a stiff resistance against the disease, one that's been supported by the government.

But now, Konstantynovska says doctors are having a hard time getting to the hospital in Kharkiv. It's too dangerous to move about outside, and the roads are ravaged. One of the physicians walks a total of three hours each day to get to and from work. The head of a local dispensary is living in her office because her apartment was destroyed.

Without intervention, people can live with tuberculosis — and spread it, through the air — for years. At some point, however, usually due to the stresses of hunger and injury; or a weakened immune system, it can turn fatal. Treatment consists of an antibiotics regimen that takes anywhere from six months to two years.

The contagiousness of TB is why Konstantynovska is especially worried about those missing patients. If they're on the move, she says, they're taking their TB with them, giving the disease more opportunities to spread through the air. "Eleven patients right now are in other regions of Ukraine," she adds. "They are trying to find the drugs because they stop[ped] treatment two weeks ago."

Interrupting an antibiotic regimen aimed at TB is worrisome for two reasons. First, drugs prevent someone from infecting others. So without meds, the disease has more opportunities to spread. And second, TB can become insensitive to the drugs if they're not taken regularly because insufficient dosing gives the tuberculosis bacteria time to mutate, selecting for populations of the bug that can dodge the meds. This is called multidrug resistant tuberculosis.

There's even extensively drug-resistant TB when the bacteria don't respond to the first or second lines of drugs. And once that form of resistant TB emerges, it can be passed from person to person, transmitted through the air just like regular TB. In 2020, a third of Ukraine's TB cases were drug-resistant, one of the highest rates in the world. And that number is likely to grow.

That's why Loyce Pace, the assistant secretary for global affairs at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, says her office is coordinating with the CDC and USAID "to track patients [within and beyond Ukraine] to understand where they are, what they need in terms of their meds and ensure that there's no gap."

To understand why Ukraine has so many TB cases, we need to rewind a hundred years.

For much of the twentieth century, when Ukraine was a republic of the former Soviet Union, tuberculosis was managed rather well, according to Tom Nicholson, executive director of the non-profit Advanced Access and Delivery. "The medical care system was quite comprehensive and was based on community medicine," he says. "It had a system of rural health posts, even in the most far-flung areas." There may not have been doctors on-site, but there were often nurses and medical technicians who could do a chest X-ray to screen for TB and dispense drugs to treat it.

The situation deteriorated with the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991. The economy in its republics tanked. Unemployment soared. Crime escalated, which sent a lot of people to prison. And that created a kind of "epidemiological pump," says Dr. Salmaan Keshavjee, director of the Center for Global Health Delivery at Harvard Medical School.

"Some people had TB," he explains. "It spread in the jails and in the prisons. And then they went back to their community, of course, when they were released. So the TB also went back to the communities." Tuberculosis rates soared, he says, including in some parts of Ukraine, which regained independence that same year.

With government resources, Ukraine has since worked hard to build back its infrastructure for treating TB, registering a decade of declines between 2010 and 2020. But then COVID hit. Lockdowns early on in the pandemic shuttered hospitals where routine screening would take place.

"Sometimes it was impossible to check patients for TB," says Dr. Olha Konstantynovska, the physician currently living with her extended family outside of Kharkiv.

Without proper screenings and treatment, when tuberculosis did manifest and people came to the hospital, they'd be in bad shape — severely underweight, a wracking cough, bleeding in the lungs.

In 2020, the percent of people receiving treatment fell dramatically from 75% the year prior to just over half. And now, in many parts of the country, the war's upended everything further.

Not just Ukraine, but Russia too

In the chaos of battle, diseases find opportunity, disproportionately affecting people at the margins of society. Dr. Salmaan Keshavjee says, "In these moments of deprivation as a result of war, as a result of being refugees, as a result of being crowded in, not having enough food, et cetera, your TB rates go up." This isn't just true of Ukraine.

"I've spent many years working [with TB] with prison and other populations in Russia," says Keshavjee. "I have grave concerns that many of them are going to be dying. My guess is that they're trying to maintain their TB treatment programs. But Russia's under sanction. As funds and things get diverted to other efforts, you will see that the drug supply is going to drop."

For now, Ukraine's stockpile of tuberculosis drugs is sufficient, provided they can be distributed. For instance, in Kyiv, Dr. Vasyl Petrenko, head of the physiatry and pulmonology department at Bogomolets National Medical University, says that Russian assaults on the city are limiting treatment options for patients.

When he's able to do his rounds, he tells his patients not to worry. "We are going to win," he reassures them. "The victory will be ours." He says it's crucial for morale. "It gives a lot of power, energy to every single person here."

The question is, how long will his optimism last?

- - - Updated - - -

Germany Calls Russia's Bluff in Gas Dispute. It Looks to Have Worked

Who else are they going to sell their gas to?

[Iphie]

I would love to see his reaction upon finding out. He can't kill all his staff. How could a former intelligence agent be so uninformed? Everything is on the news.

As far as him being a former intelligence agent: his superiors apparently felt he was a mediocre agent at best:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ies-ukraine-us

From the article:

By all accounts, though, Putin was a pretty mediocre KGB officer. For all the artfully crafted mythology built around him, Putin was never some Soviet James Bond.

[snebb]

Putin is just proving that there is no reason to trust him.

Between what they are doing to control MOEX and this new stereotype of 'cant trust Russia' they are trying to create, they are gonna fuck their economy more than the current sanctions will.

[Poopymonster]

Drug-Molecule Development Industry Hit By Ukraine Invasion



We may soon see a spread of drug-resistant TB in Eastern Europe. Maybe even spreading into Western Europe.

Russia's war with Ukraine is devastating for Ukraine's war on TB



- - - Updated - - -

Germany Calls Russia's Bluff in Gas Dispute. It Looks to Have Worked

Who else are they going to sell their gas to?

So, Russian invasion caused TB patients to be set loose due to lack of drugs.
If one of these people, knowing their lungs are gonna go to shit without meds, might surrender to the Russians.
Immediately and unconditionally. They might try to surround myself with them, get as close to as many as possible.
It's just an easily spread and potentially fatal illness. Amongst people with malnutrition, severe cold weather conditions, and probably a less than average immune system due to ongoing shitty conditions.

Damn, we were so close. We're at 34 days since Russia invaded. Just 6 days too late.

Wait, the article is dated March 19th. 23 days. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Breccia]

How could a former intelligence agent be so uninformed?

This remains a bit of a mystery to me. Yes, we've all discussed how Putin's Russia is so corrupt it makes N'Zoth blush. But you'd still think Putin would occasionally want accurate information.

The solution I've seen the most, not sure if I agree yet, is even more chilling: he was informed. He doesn't care. (These pre-date @Iphie 's article) That not only did Putin know his army was not prepared when he sent it, but also knew it was losing the whole time. But the victory in Ukraine was just that important, because Putin either can't have neighbors who make him look bad, or he's so psychotic that reforming the USSR is worth any cost to people who aren't Putin.

I like your optimism that he can't kill his entire staff. He'll need to leave the janitor alive to clean up the bodies.

Everything is on the news.

Our news. Oh I get your point, it reflects very poorly on Putin, but don't forget how badly state-run press wants to not die from food poisoning, too.

[Easo]

Kadirov keeps doing his "I don't care about part line" https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/49653
Basically - he said everything opposite to what Medinsky said yesterday, talked about Ukrainian puppets, etc. etc.

It is interesting to see an official to just do this. Well, the nationalistic elements do approve.

In other news under the shadow of this war Houthis are vowing to keep doing whatever necessary if certain forces will keep the current course - we can probably expect more and more strikes on Saudi oil facilities, leading to some worldwide resonance regarding oil prices.

This needs some humour:

Gamers do not care
https://9gag.com/gag/a0Z0xeX

Special taskforce "Babushki" are decrying Biden and cutting diplomatic relations with USA
https://twitter.com/CardinalisRavus/...16932820492302

Who else are they going to sell their gas to?

I can tell where at least some oil is going - Indonesia (specifically Pertamina, the state oil company) wants more Russian crude.

Funny story: MOEX actually improved a little on the claims that Russia and Ukraine would hold peace talks.

Then Russia intensified shelling.

Well, let's see how that pans out.

Everything improved upon that news, European markets for example.