The Brexit aftermath thread

[ranzino]

future predictions:

sir graham brady announces a VoNC is taking place
2018/19 budget takes place: DUP abstain, government passes the bill
VoNC takes place, theresa may wins - immune for 1 year
theresa may's deal is voted on in parliament, passes narrowly due to labour moderates not wanting a "no deal" brexit

Look, to reach a scenario when you need a GE you need to kill the brexit bill immediately. Labour is not fond of helping May and is not fond of the brexit deal.

[Deleted]

LOL Producing insulin isn't rocket science, just because the UK doesn't produce it today doesn't mean it couldn't tomorrow. Calm down with your sensationalist clap trap. And with no border or checks in Ireland even I could walk across and bring a suitcase full back, or will the EU deny the Irish insulin too?

Don't worry all you diabetics, Dribs is gonna start knocking up Insulin with one of those brew your own beer kits.

[Huehuecoyotl]

https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/sta...779920384?s=19

I have spent the last few days in Washington talking to US Government Trade and Treasury officials encouraging a free trade deal with the UK. Excellent response. They have already started on the procedures to allow negotiations to start immediately once we leave the EU in March.

Not very long at all.

Ah, isn't that cute. Dribbles doesn't understand the difference between starting the negotiations for a trade deal, and finishing them. That lack of understanding does go some way to explaining his posts in this thread, mind you.

[Pann]

LOL Producing insulin isn't rocket science, just because the UK doesn't produce it today doesn't mean it couldn't tomorrow. Calm down with your sensationalist clap trap. And with no border or checks in Ireland even I could walk across and bring a suitcase full back, or will the EU deny the Irish insulin too?

Insulin is produced in the UK, although UK production is only a small percentage of demand, however the major insulin producers do not expect any issues with supplying the UK post Brexit.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...no-deal-brexit

[Slant]

Assuming that's not a set-up, that's an amazing bit of radio. Really hard to listen to. James O'Brien is great on LBC.

I thought so, it sounds genuine.

[Teleros]

There need to be regulations in place before the companies in the EU will be able to sell it to the UK.

1. The UK has been at work to ensure that all EU regs in force when we leave the EU will remain in place.
2. There are WTO rules to refer to.

Thus, so long as the EU company is allowed under EU laws to sell to non-EU countries, and so long as they meet the regulations in place in the UK (see above), then the regulations you talk about will be in place.

Now, the price is a separate issue, and will depend on the tariffs in place for insulin entering the UK. Now I know, I'm just a random guy on the internet, but it seems to me that it might just be possible to factor in such considerations, and come to an agreement with UK insulin buyers, perhaps via an agreeable third party, to mitigate the tariff situation.

"Well Mr Anglo, worst case is there'd be a 20% tariff on insulin, and it looks like the NHS doesn't give a damn, so what say you pay the usual rate, plus the 20% tariff to a third party to hold onto it, then if things to tits up with the tariff we get it, and if not you get that money back?"

Don't tell me international businesses can't handle something like that.

Not just the scope or the countries involved but also where those countries are and what trade deals they have. You can't just make a free trade deal with Canada without involvevement of the US/Mexico and the EU because of CETA.

Okay, so it's more complicated with Canada*, fine. There's still Australia & New Zealand to think about for example.

*As if Canadian lawyers and such don't already know, or aren't already thinking about, how any new trade agreement would have to work with or around their existing trade agreements.

In place for what? Do you know under which terms they will be trading with the UK in 6 months? Are you a time traveler? Because right now NO ONE knows.

In place for the post-Brexit world.

"Okay so Article 50's been activated, let's make sure we've got at least, oh, three months of insulin on ice so that in 2 years time we don't run low if negotiations go tits up. We can't store it for longer than that, but it'll give us a window in which to secure more supplies."

If you're responsible for buying insulin and can't do something like that (or failing that, get a guaranteed backstop price etc in place that your suppliers will definitely be able to sell to you at, assuming a worst case scenario etc), you're a failure.

The EU doesn't have a say in this. This is business. Insuline and other medical supplies are supervised, dangerous goods. Why? Because I could kill you with insuline. So you need permits. You need certifications. You need skilled personnel. None of those are valid in the UK in the case of a hard Brexit. Those permits are invalid outside the EU and the UK doesn't have the resources to give anyone those permits. The certifications of these things are invalid in the UK. Personnel doesn't have driving licenses in the UK. The lorries don't have insurance nor any other kind of valid papers in the UK, they couldn't even drive off the ferry.

Again, the UK is grandfathering in EU regulations once we leave the EU, so a huge chunk of your nightmare scenario is simply not going to be an issue.

Business: "I'm certified under EU Law Blah Blah Blah to ferry insulin around Europe."
UK Customs: "Wow, it just so happens our regulations are identical to EU Law Blah Blah Blah for insulin. Carry on."

You don't get it, do you? This isn't the EU being a big ol' meanie, this is private business not wanting to be liable if anything goes wrong.

Or as above, you buy the stuff you need in advance.

This is existing regulations and a future lack of regulations. You wanted out, well, you are going to be out. OUT OF EVERYTHING. You are cut off. NOTHING can move into the UK from the EU and nothing from the UK can move into the EU. The tunnel? Everything stops, because those trains lose their certification for the UK.

Lol.

What part of grandfathering in EU law don't you understand? Oh sure, maybe the EU will throw a hissy fit because they don't recognise post-EU UK regulations (even though they're literally identical to their own), but this side of the Channel things are going to be a mite different.

And this isn't even talking about the fucking 20 mile long QUEUE the UK is planning. It's not just a traffic jam, they expect lorries to be on the queues for DAYS on end. Do you know how long a lorry can sit at idle engine power before fuel goes out? I don't. But I do know once fuel does go out, there is no refrigeration for the cargo. Do you know what needs cooling? Food. And medical supplies.

1. Sensible planning will consider bad scenarios such as days-long queues, just to be on the safe side if nothing else.
2. I didn't know it was impossible to turn off a lorry engine and top it up with petrol. Unless those refrigeration units are so ludicrously sensitive that 10 minutes without power will ruin things (in which case, WTF were you doing not designing them well?), I think we'll manage.

This isn't even talking about how bloody wrecking it would be to your economy to rely on a trade bloc that is OBLIGATED by the WTO to give you the harshest customs the WTO has to offer.

That's fine - the only reason we've relied on EU trade for so long is simply because we've been a member. We used to have amazing trade with the Commonwealth and such before joining, and once we're out you'll see our EU trade drop off as we do deals with the rest of the world and gain better access to all their markets. Whatever hiccups we have to start with won't last long.

"Fall back to WTO"? It's not an alternative. The only thing worse than WTO rules is no trade at all.

Lol.

And even if you could just freeze it up forever, how much capacity do you think the EU has to bulk up your supply within 2 years so you can survive the expected 5-10 years before the first handful of trade deals come into effect?

5-10 years to secure a new supply of insulin? What the devil are you smoking - or are you just mainlining whatever it is?

I swear, I'd let you make fun of me forever if you guys just stopped this thing.

I doubt that, but regardless, we're leaving the EU, period.

It's not about the price. It's about there not being any insuline. Even if you're a billionaire.

There's this thing called foreign travel, right, and if you have enough money you can - and get this, because it's really amazing - travel to other countries. And then buy stuff there! Amazing, I know! Hey, did you know some people even bring things back with them - even when they're not supposed to? Wow...

Is this really the point we're at? Sacrificing people's lives for a political fantasy? We may as well have ignored the WW1 centenary.

What's the political fantasy exactly? National sovereignty and self-determination?

We've spent 2 years trying to negotiate leaving the EU when the people on the other side are being incredibly nice

You must read different news sources than I do.

how long do you think a trade deal will take to properly negotiate? Especially since we've got absolutely no power in that arena at all anymore.

I know, right? Who'd want to do business with the 5th largest economy in the world? You'd have to be a total whacko loser country to want that...

As for the US coming to the rescue? You want to shackle us to Trump and his madness?

Shackle? No. Get a nice deal with them? Sure.

You want them to ransack the NHS even more than they already are doing?

And I swear to god, will you Brexit fucks stop bringing up the fishing industry? It's nothing, it's less than a % of our GDP.

Don't really care all that much about the GDP figures for it TBH. There's plenty of other concerns relating to it besides nonsense numbers.

Brexit was never sold as anything but a positive thing. It’s only now phrases like ‘short term pain’ are being bandied about by Leavers.

Not how I remember it, but whatever.

@Teleros you’ve been remarkably quiet on the subject for a couple of years Is this now the end game?

Hopefully. Like I said, with any luck Labour & the Tory rebels will kill this deal and we'll end up on WTO rules.

Is it not that no deal is the sole reserve of those who a) can afford the economic hit, the very wealthy b) those who think they can afford the economic hit (but who are going to get a nasty surprise when people like me stop paying taxes), the baby boomer pensioners and c) the very poor, marginalised by years of ‘we’re in it all together’ austerity and whose lives will only be about to become much, much worse.

Actually believing we've had any real austerity... boy that's a good one. Go read up on the austerity of the Great Depression for a bit... want a 10% pay cut, effective immediately? No? Too goddamn bad, you're a civil servant you'll take your 10% pay cut and like it.

That is austerity. A decline in the rate of growth of government spending is not.

I’ll reluctantly except May’s deal with respect to the referendum result. I won’t accept no deal.

The brexiteers succeed in ousting May and installing Davis / Raab / BJ etc? I’ll fucking riot. I promise you.

Yet another left wing sore loser I see. Oh don't worry, I believe you when you say you'll riot - the salt mining has been great ever since we won the referendum and I don't expect it to stop any time soon.

Are this lot of Brexiteer cabinet ministers deaf as well as brain dead? The EU have already said they won't renegotiate.

Good. We don't want to renegotiate. We want out, and we're more than happy to use WTO rules.

Ha ha ha. Beans on toast and a whisky. Fuck me. Ketamine and two bottles of Abinthe more like.

You might think that, I couldn't possibly comment .

[dribbles]

Don't worry all you diabetics, Dribs is gonna start knocking up Insulin with one of those brew your own beer kits.

I'm not sure there would be any demand seeing as there is no shortage of insulin in the UK with just weeks to go until we leave, but you highlight how simple it is to do. You would think people would be panic buying if there are going to be shortages? I'd wager the same would exist after Brexit as today. Tell you what eurochums, I don't have diabetes but I am betting I could still get any type of insulin delivered to my door tomorrow, probably more quickly than you can get it in protectionist Euroland.

A simple google "buy insulin online" returns 100's of results...

I will be able to do exactly the same 3,6,12 months from now, before and after Brexit. The levels project fear 2.0 will stoop to, the mind boggles what fantasies they will dream up next.

[Deleted]

Ah, isn't that cute. Dribbles doesn't understand the difference between starting the negotiations for a trade deal, and finishing them. That lack of understanding does go some way to explaining his posts in this thread, mind you.

davis davis has no role in government to do any trade deals and no civil service team with him.

I don't think we need to go through all his brexit quotes or the video clips of him being grilled by the brexit commitee, hes an absolute mongo.


I think we've gone through WTO rules and what they are and why they suck and why anyone who advocates for them is mince as well in this thread

[Muzjhath]

Or as above, you buy the stuff you need in advance.

As this was about Insulin. That isn't a possibility really. As it isn't stable and even when stored refrigerated it loses it's effect. So buying a huge bulk isn't something doctors want to do as it might mean patients will get a bad batch and die.

As for your assumption of grandfathering. We just don't know. Some people in the UK are saying that, at the same time JRM wants to scrap everything and get a blank slate from everything I've read.

[Floopa]

the no deal brexit squad want a deal with the US because a deal with the US will reduce employee rights, consumer protections, quality etc.

US food, specifically, is actual garbage compared to the quality of food produced by countries that operate within the european union.

[Pann]

Someone’s attitude is a reflection of that person, calling that persons attitude bizarre is calling that person bizarre. What’s so difficult to understand?

It really isn't.

Calling a extremely stupid person a moron isn’t an insult, it’s a fact.

There is a great deal of irony in labelling 17million plus people morons based on the way they voted.

Brexit will have a devastating effect on the lives of millions of people in the uk, it isn’t an over exaggeration to describe remainers who suffer at the hands of the brexit morons as victims.

This has nothing to do with what I wrote.

It will? What information do you have to support this assertion?

It is a massive over exaggeration.

You are delusional if you think we have any chance of reversing brexit and I will continue to call out the brexiteers for what they are, fucking morons every last one of those little englanders cunts.

Believing in the possibility that there is a chance of reversing Brexit is not the same as saying that it will be reversed nor is it delusional.

If that helps you in some way I'm happy for you.

- - - Updated - - -

As this was about Insulin. That isn't a possibility really. As it isn't stable and even when stored refrigerated it loses it's effect. So buying a huge bulk isn't something doctors want to do as it might mean patients will get a bad batch and die.

You'd better tell the UK government as well the insulin producers this information as they seem to be labouring under the assumption that this is possible. Experts... huh?

[Slant]

[snip]

When people start dissection posts and respond sentence by sentence, they usually don't have an actual argument. This is literally someone discussing semantics, missing the point.

[Teleros]

As for your assumption of grandfathering. We just don't know. Some people in the UK are saying that, at the same time JRM wants to scrap everything and get a blank slate from everything I've read.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45912824

I'm not sure I'd lose any sleep if we lost all those 12,000 regulations overnight - I like my laissez-faire economics - but this seems to be what's going on.

When people start dissection posts and respond sentence by sentence, they usually don't have an actual argument. This is literally someone discussing semantics, missing the point.

I'll take your word for-

Sorry. Couldn't do it. Couldn't keep a straight face.

[Dizzeeyooo]

I'm not sure I'd lose any sleep if we lost all those 12,000 regulations overnight - I like my laissez-faire economics

which specific regulations that currently impact you directly are you looking forward to losing? do you have any examples you can share?

[Mayhem]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45912824

I'm not sure I'd lose any sleep if we lost all those 12,000 regulations overnight - I like my laissez-faire economics - but this seems to be what's going on.

But if you lose those regulations you won't be able to buy stuff from the EU. o_O

[ranzino]

But if you lose those regulations you won't be able to buy stuff from the EU. o_O

no import, no export.

[Mayhem]

no import, no export.

It's madness right now.

If they c/p all EU regulations they have to keep them in line until a new trade agreement is reached which would give the EU a bargaining chip beyond measure.

If they lose all EU regulations they have to create those regulations themselves before being able to trade regardless with whom.

So, what will it be dear brexiteers? Bind yourself to EU regulations or killing all trade within a day?

[Pann]

How so?

They are different.

Where is the irony? These Brexit morons voted to tank the country and make us all much worse off, and why? Was it because of their little Englander mindset, their xenophobia, their racism, is its simply moronic stupidity or it could even be all of the above.

If you cannot see the irony in labelling others, who you nothing about, morons based on how they voted then I am not sure what to say to you.

Eh? Maybe you should have a reread over our conversation, my reply is pertinent to the discussion.

It really wasn't.

Our immanent cliff edge Brexit isn't going to tank our economy and bring millions more people into poverty? More delusion from the Brexit apologist, ffs wake up kalis.

Is it? What data you have to support this assumption? Challenging your nonsense does not make me a Brexit apologist. Nor am I Kalis. Please stop making a fool out of yourself.

Nonsensical delusional drivel.

Why? Come on support your argument.

- - - Updated - - -

But if you lose those regulations you won't be able to buy stuff from the EU. o_O

Why? Are you seriously suggesting that EU companies will stop selling to UK because the UK has different regulations to the EU? If this is the case how do EU companies sell to US customers?

[Deleted]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45912824

I'm not sure I'd lose any sleep if we lost all those 12,000 regulations overnight - I like my laissez-faire economics - but this seems to be what's going on.


I'll take your word for-

Sorry. Couldn't do it. Couldn't keep a straight face.

Loosing that many regulations that quickly is a recipe for people getting rippled off and exploited as well as dangerous and defective products flooding on to the market.

Neither of those should be considered as good outcomes.

[Slant]

I'll take your word for-

Sorry. Couldn't do it. Couldn't keep a straight face.

Remember to laugh when your supermarket has empty shelves, when your aspirin is sold out and other fun stuff happens. And I'm not willing to spend an hour to compile a line by line commentary on your bullshit. If you think you've somehow "won" the argument by being the most obnoxious... well, go ahead and give yourself a pat on the shoulder, pal. If you can't make a coherent paragraph on your own, you are in fact just discussing semantics. I'd tell you to think about it, but given the silly things you write, it's probably beyond hoping that you would...

Just as an example: When you have regulations about the brake power a lorry of a given weight has to produce, it's all great if the UK has the same regulation... but nobody in the EU is going to "just believe" the UK that. They'd like to see certificates that certify it actually does have the needed brake power. No, we do not give a shit what your UK based technical institute says. Because you are not in the EU. You can comply all you want, but your lorries won't be driving on EU streets without proper papers.

Your lorry driver? Has no insurance in the EU. No driver's license. Likewise, a EU wide insurance for lorries and their drivers is not valid in the UK. I know, "but we keep the same regulations!" You are not in the EU. When the regulation says "this driving license is valid within the EU" it means our lorry drivers won't have a driving license in the UK. Period. The same for insurances, our drivers and the lorry and the cargo are not insured in the UK. Why would anyone drive into the UK without having proper insurance?

What you want is irrelevant. What you think ought to be isn't. This is the real world, where people like you are simply ignored, because it's just too stupid to even explain to you how an insurance works. Or what a certificate is there for. Or why people won't risk their lives savings because some dude told them "Oh, it's fine... we'll still have the same regulations."

Yes, you know what's funny? Most of those rules start in one way or another with "In member states of the European Union". You know why? Because we can't make rules outside the EU. Funny, isn't that. Go ahead, keep those rules. See how much good they are to you.