You are using a selective definition of loot boxes.
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loot_box:
A Seal fits that definition. Adding a hoop to jump through before you can open the loot box does not change the fact that you are opening a loot box.In video games, a loot box (also called a loot/prize crate) is a consumable virtual item which can be redeemed to receive a randomized selection of further virtual items, ranging from simple customization options for a player's avatar or character, to game-changing equipment such as weapons and armor.
What is your definition of a loot box?
I disagree with the first step, which also makes the third untrue. People purporting that loot boxes are gambling however, are arguing the first is true. They haven't given a reason why the second isn't true. So if 1 and 2 are true, so is 3.
But why not?
There also content in WoW you can solo by face rolling your keyboard, and then use tokens for bonus rolls. Trivial. You've also made the solo blanket decision that every example I am giving is non-trivial. If the governing gambling body considered them trivial, would they be gambling under Belgium law?
Congratulations on that nice pair of blinders you are wearing. The bolded part of your above statement is EXACTLY what a bonus seal roll is. You have a chance to get in-game value or perceived value. You just want to hand wave it away for a reason you haven't given. The closest I can tell is that it is because you have to do something you subjectively consider non-trivial.
I totally get that the what gamers dislike loot boxes like those in FIFA and Overwatch. That doesn't mean that the laws being proposed are ONLY targeting those. The wording is too broad and will logically apply to much more than just that.
They can amplify the problem but the do not change the fact that gambling is gambling. Is betting on who wins the World Cup not gambling because you can only make that bet once every four years? No. It's gambling.
But ultimately irrelevant. As stated, the proposed or enacted legislation in every country does not care about the frequency of the loot box. Just on their existence. When you apply for a lottery licence, it doesn't matter if you are holding one lottery, a lottery once a month, or a lottery once an hour. You're gambling.
Because?
So a non-time gated loot box is gambling, but a time gated loot box is not. Non-time gated gambling is gambling, but time gated gambling is still gambling. Your logic is inconsistent.
Everything you have been arguing keeps focusing on frequency, and difficulty. Frequency is irrelevant. The laws do not care about the frequency of occurrence. It's the act that matters. The game of chance. When it comes to difficulty, you have to apply what an "average" person would find difficult. While a regular FIFA player might have no problem winning a game on an easy or normal difficult setting, for a random "average" person they would likely lose.So it would be classified as a non-trivial activity, but for the people who would actually be spending money, it would be a trivial activity. Regardless, the level of difficulty does not automatically eliminate it from being gambling or not.
And that is where legislation like this will lead. It's the logical end point.
I'd also be curious to see if there is a breakdown of % of total MTX revenue by age group. It's a stat that is probably incredibly difficult to track though.
And while you have given a pass to my examples on WoW and the FIFA proposal that's exactly what game developers will shift their boxes too. Considering they have teams of people doing it they'll likely be able come up with more / better ideas than what I came up with in a day. While you think that shift may be better than how things are currently, there are many ways in which they can make the revenue exactly the same (or squeeze out even more).