Batman: Arkham Mafia

[Decagon]

And how do we know that the only people to be killed will be town? In a game of this size we likely have more than one team of mafia, which means mafia can kill mafia, same goes for SK. Beyond that, we have doctors, role blocks, vigilantes, and cops (though obviously cops can't kill scum directly or save someone directly). There is probably abou the same chance of scum dying on the night as there is Treann to be scum.

[Arlee]

This assumes that the D1 lynch is random. The D1 lynch is only random if the person being lynched offers no believable defense, which is itself, IMO, something of a confession.

Doesn't the person being lynched offering no believable defense mean that the lynch is less random... at least by your thought process? I mean if you assume that offering no defense is something of a confession then lynching that person isn't random.

[Decagon]

FoS decagon for possibly being scumbuddies with Treann :P

restored Keleb

Yes, because it's not characteristic of me to defend people from needless lynches, and they've always been scum and I've totally been affiliated with their particular scum faction.

[BrandonC]

Doesn't the person being lynched offering no believable defense mean that the lynch is less random... at least by your thought process? I mean if you assume that offering no defense is something of a confession then lynching that person isn't random.

That was kind of my point, which was that D1 lynches aren't really random. I was being all subtle-like.

[Decagon]

That was kind of my point, which was that D1 lynches aren't really random. I was being all subtle-like.

So in other words, I'm incorrect in assuming Treann is being lynched randomly/on joke logic?

[Arlee]

That was kind of my point, which was that D1 lynches aren't really random. I was being all subtle-like.

I'm not good at being subtle

[BrandonC]

So in other words, I'm incorrect in assuming Treann is being lynched randomly/on joke logic?

Who gets picked on D1 might be random, but that doesn't mean that the resulting lynch is random.

[Deleted]

As Brandon says, most of the time on D1 I find that there is some logic to it, however I don't always find that the logic is the most sound in the world. In this game, we have an additional thing to be weary of - in the signup thread, Greeney advised that the mafia's will be given a choice of a power or a fake claim, so any claims need to be considered with a bit of extra care.

[Vanatos]

And how do we know that the only people to be killed will be town? In a game of this size we likely have more than one team of mafia, which means mafia can kill mafia, same goes for SK. Beyond that, we have doctors, role blocks, vigilantes, and cops (though obviously cops can't kill scum directly or save someone directly). There is probably abou the same chance of scum dying on the night as there is Treann to be scum.

Wow, so there is a chance of another team of mafia? I thought the Joker team is the only one. I guess we will find out.

Anways, I'm wondering if there are any negative consequences for not answering the puzzle correctly or at all? On the flip side, what kind of benefit to answering the puzzle correctly like is there some kind of prize/bonus? Thanks?

[Loaf]

With a game the size of 30 people and 5 day long days and 2 day long nights(that's a week for each daynight cycle), it'd be silly not to have multiple scum teams. Otherwise this game will last a couple of months easy.

[Lysah]

So in other words, I'm incorrect in assuming Treann is being lynched randomly/on joke logic?

At this point it more likely that Treann is part of a scum team. Here is my reasoning:

With a ridiculously large amount of votes required to lynch (16), a team of, let's say, 4 or 5 mafia have no reason to vote on their ally. It is very unlikely such a large number will vote for the same person, none of the town members have any reason to trust each other, especially on day 1. Therefore, we are left with two trains of thought.

Treann is town:
He gets to 12-13/16 votes, scum will see a chance to lynch someone not on their team and several of them will likely join in to help make the kill. In this case, we probably have more than one scum team, which would mean even more people would pile on the wagon. A town lynch is likely to get pushed over as soon as it hits a high majority simply due to the nature of scum players wanting to lynch "not us."

Treann is mafia:
He is still "far" from a lynch, even -1 gets turned over more often than it succeeds in most games. For this reason, mafia have no reason to jump on the wagon as they can likely use their "lets just lynch nobody instead!" reasoning to get people to unvote, or better yet, to vote for a no lynch. A no lynch still gets them one step closer to victory, and as long as its their ally in the spotlight, this is a much preferable situation than being forced to hammer him in hopes of blending in, or not voting at all and being called out for it later.

tl;dr
Same logic as prior games, only expanded due to the huge player count. If Treann was innocent he would have been hammered already. Of course, this is all WIFOM, as is par for the mafian course. Whether or not the scum already jumped on the wagon of a townie in the first place remains to be seen. Let's not forget that those of us who ARE innocent have no idea what the makeup of the game is. Assuming I'm town, I only know my role, and as I said before, that is all I can be sure of. This game might very well be 29 scum and Lysah.


And while a town aligned player should be cautious of any lynch and, by comparison, scum players should be a little *too* happy to lynch anyone, let's keep in mind that playing the "I don't think lynching is safe" card is still a great strategy for scum. Not only does it make them look town (not wanting to "mislynch"), it also wastes a game day that could have resulted in a lynch and, therefore, a vote record.

[Deleted]

This game might very well be 29 scum and Lysah.

I knew it. You're Batman!

No, Batwoman! Ah!

[Loaf]

vote Nightfury Treann

Sorry Treann, but this day is dragging on forever :\

[Lysah]

I knew it. You're Batman!

No, Batwoman! Ah!

I already implied I was Commissioner Gordon, silly.

[Deleted]

I already implied I was Commissioner Gordon, silly.

No. Batwoman.

[Nightfury Treann]

vote Nightfury Treann

Sorry Treann, but this day is dragging on forever :\

So you vote cause of day reasons, and no real reasons.

Hello Gotham City, nice to meet you. I am the Commissioner James Gordon (cop) and Batman left me out without help.

I can't believe that you guys managed to make me r-claim on first day.

Didn't claimed "Town" "Scum" all that cause i knew people will come "WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM"

[Deleted]

So you vote cause of day reasons, and no real reasons.

Hello Gotham City, nice to meet you. I am the Commissioner James Gordon (cop) and Batman left me out without help.

I can't believe that you guys managed to make me r-claim on first day.

Didn't claimed "Town" "Scum" all that cause i knew people will come "WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM"

Well, the scum got what they wanted...

Also, people really need to think for themselves more often and stop targeting people because "HE WAS MAFIA IN LOTS OF GAMES" or "HE'S ACTING FUNNY" or" HE'S MORE ACTIVE, SO HE'S SCUM" stuff. It's pretty annoying and I can't believe people actually followed that logic lol.

[kel]

You're a power role, must be evil !!

[Loaf]

unvote

what's this? Cop? :O is it true though? desperate fake claim maybe? Waht about Lysah saying she was the comish?

[Arlee]

Lysah... you theories don't take into account the fact that a lynch vote doesn't have to reach 16 to make a lynch happen. As long as Treann ends the day with the most votes he will be lynched. I think that changes the equation on voting a bit.

I just don't even know what to say about the role claim though Treann.