Originally Posted by
DisposableHero
If you express the sales figures for each expansion as a percentage of the total subscriber base at the time, you find the following:
Burning Crusade - 2.4 million first day sales, 8.3 million subscribers, 28.9% first day adoption
Wrath of the Lich King - 2.8 million first day sales, 11 million subscribers, 25.4% first day adoption
Cataclysm - 3.3 million first day sales, 12 million subscribers, 27.5% first day adoption
Mists of Pandaria - 2.7 million first week sales (since we don't have first day sales numbers to look at), 9.1 million subscribers, 29.7% first week adoption
If we make the logical assumption that most of the first week MoP adopters are also first day adopters, and consider that this does not include the launch in China, I think it is safe to say that MoP had the exact same 25-28% of the subscriber base as first day adopters that every previous expansion has had, and the figures are neither disappointing nor inspiring but basically what should have been expected.
Mists also increased subscriptions at the launch by 900,000. Looking at the gains in the first quarter for each of the other expansions, BC bumped the subscriber base by a 600,000, Wrath by 1.2 million, and Cata's launch saw a 100,000 subscriber decline over its first quarter in action. So numbers for sales so far look average and increased subscriber count is very strong, but they will need to maintain those numbers over this quarter before that can really be found in evidence.
So the numbers are decidedly average, and basically, look roughly in line with the previous expansions, with the exception of Cata's subscriber performance.
Cata breaking sales records is entirely an effect of the peak subscriber base playing in late wrath of the lich king, and them getting their usual adoption rate. MoP sales are correspondingly down because their active player base is down substantially.
Interestingly if you look back at WoW's largest subscriber gains on a quarterly basis, the sharpest gains are mid 2005, late 2006, and late 2008, each corresponding to a gain of 1.0 to 1.3 million subscribers. A 900,000 subscriber gain probably ranks in the top 5 or 6 quarterly subscription performances in the game's history, so there really is no reason for blizzard to express disappointment. The game is clearly alive and well and this is a first step in moving on from the failures of cataclysm that caused them to lose almost 3 million subscribers over the expansion.
Those calling these numbers abysmal really are looking for any excuse to say the game is failing, and people calling these numbers amazing are looking for any excuse to trumpet the game's success. The reality is the numbers are typical, but encouraging.