Paragon disbanding

[Raiju]

Cant say I ever really cared for the race. The big reason is you don't get to really see the race. You just hear about it. It is like watching a number that looks like this 0/13 for a day. Then the next day you hit the front page of MMOC or some other monitoring site and it turns into 1/13. Really not all that intersting.

Not really... there's a lot of speculation about how guilds do difficult fights, clever tactics etc.

[Deleted]

It's lonely at the top.

[Deleted]

Man, so many guilds have stopped these past years Vodka, Blood Legion, Exodus and now Paragon.

[Kazuchika]

Vodka called it quits?

Grats to Limit on every single US first in Legion?

[Deja Thoris]

Man, so many guilds have stopped these past years Vodka, Blood Legion, Exodus and now Paragon.

I just did the analysis in another thread,

40% of the top 20 25man guilds in SoO are dead (2 on life support so make it 50%)

70% of the top 10 10man guilds in SoO are dead.


But gais, 20 man mythic is a roaring success!

[durrtygoodz]

I just did the analysis in another thread,

40% of the top 20 25man guilds in SoO are dead (2 on life support so make it 50%)

70% of the top 10 10man guilds in SoO are dead.


But gais, 20 man mythic is a roaring success!

Instead of blaming 20man mythic why not blame the fact the game is just shit

[khazmodan]

being number 1 in a quickly dying game is like playing table tennis against the wall alone...

[Dracodraco]

I just did the analysis in another thread,

40% of the top 20 25man guilds in SoO are dead (2 on life support so make it 50%)

70% of the top 10 10man guilds in SoO are dead.


But gais, 20 man mythic is a roaring success!

Question is, how many top 20 10/25 man guilds from DS->SoO died? 40-50% For an entire expansion doesn't really seem bad. At a quick glance (Take top 20 and see if the guild did any kills in SoO - not sure which method you used), out of top 20, these guilds didn't do anything serious in SoO:

#1 ???? - chinese first to kill madness, can't do the name. Disbanded.
#2 Stars - on "life support", from top 10 material to top 100.
#4 Paragon - Went 10 man instead (Later reformed in the end of SoO).
#7 Exodus - Disbanded.
#8 Wings of Aurora - Disbanded.
#9 Vodka - Disbanded (later reformed in WOD).
#11 Ground Zero - Went 10 man instead.
#12 Wraith - on "life support", from top 20 to top 1000.
#14 Zenith - Disbanded.
#15 Enigma - Disbanded.
#16 Pulse - Disbanded.
#19 For The Horde - Disbanded.
#20 Slashcry - Disbanded

So that's 45% guilds dead. 10% struggling to stay alive, taking heavy hits in rankings because of it (Life Support). And 10% struggling so much that they had to downsize to 10 Man. Depending on how you look at it, that's either 45-55% or 45-65% (we all know Paragon went 10 man because of struggling to find proper recruits, so I'd personally count that as a "dead" 25 man guild - if it was a choise to go 10 with the ability to remain 25 I wouldn't).

Also,

#13 Apex gets a slight mention as they went from rank 13 to 45 - that's a severe fall, but probably not bad enough to call them "on life support". They were dead by the next expansion, though (their last tier).


That's worse than your numbers - 40% disbanded VS 45%, without bothering to get into semantics about the struggling/downsized guilds.


For 10 man, we have:
#1 In Extremis - Disbanded.
#2 Silent - Disbanded.
#3 [russianname] - Disbanded.
#4 Hordlinge - Disbanded (Merged with Moonz, #13, to form Moonzlinge).
#5 Overtake - Disbanded.
#6 Angered - Disbanded (Now reformed on Draenor? I think).
#7 Crakers - Disbanded.
#8 Incredible Miracle - Life support/Disbanded, from top 10 to top 8000 (11/14 HC, didn't finish the tier).
#9 [Chinesename] - Disbanded.

#11 [Chinesename] - Disbanded.
#12 For The Horde - Disbanded.
#13 Moonz - Disbanded (Merged with Hordlinge, #4, to form Moonzlinge).
#14 Why So Serious - Disbanded.
#15 STeam - Disbanded.
#16 Realm First - Disbanded.
#17 X Team Raiders - Disbanded.
#18 [Chinesename] - Disbanded.
#20 Quantum - Disbanded.


Moonz and Hordlinge merged to form a single (living) guild to do 25 man, which I guess means one of them counts as dead.

You'll notice the only guilds left totally out of this list is #10 and #19.
#10 Infinite Challenge is a little odd. They did well on 10 man Garrosh (rank 49 world had asia been on the world score), then got a top 100 kill on 25 two weeks later. So their 10 man quality dropped a ton, but they also managed to expand into 25 man, so I guess they count as alive.

And #19 Loot FTW managed to persist, with slightly worse ranks (19->29).


So that's a best-case scenario of a 85% mortality rate for the 10 man guilds. Again, far worse than the numbers you threw up.

So are we sure it's really a case of "HERP DERP 20 MAN KILLED THE GUILDS WAAAH" - or could it be the fact that through an entire expansion, guilds tend to die off (and new ones be made in their place)? Your numbers actually comes out in favor of 20 man raiding; FAR more guilds lived through the expansion this time around than previously, with no changes to raid size (DS->SoO was all pure 10/25 with "same difficulty").


EDIT: Just noticed you only took top 10 10man guilds.
In that case, 10 man guilds had a 80-90% mortality rate; You can count Hordlinge as being disbanded (90%) or as living due to merging with Moonz (80%), and Infinite challenge persisted.
Still, a best case scenario that's worse than your numbers.

[Deja Thoris]

It's a fair point Draco. The only caveat is that this expansion isn't over yet so theres still time for a lot of guilds to fail.

I'm actually surprised at the amount of churn. It seems theres very little longevity in any form.

[Dracodraco]

It's a fair point Draco. The only caveat is that this expansion isn't over yet so theres still time for a lot of guilds to fail.

I'm actually surprised at the amount of churn. It seems theres very little longevity in any form.

Actually, that's entirely irrelevant; the only way these numbers can change is if some of the dead guilds right now returns to raiding (and even so, at this point, they'd be "life support" guilds).

Remember, you tested from SoO till and including HFC - and all of those data sets have been completed the way you describe it. It's 8 AM and I haven't slept so I'm having a hard time putting it into words, so this is going to sound retarded, but hopefully you get the point:

The 20 guilds from SoO are set in stone. You took the top 20, we're working with those. They can't change.
10 Of these guilds finished HFC (50%) already. That can't change. This means that 50% of the guilds survived to and through this tier.

The only way the numbers can change is if a dead guild becomes active. And that's for the better, not for the worse. The 10 guilds that were alive this tier can't be considered "dead" the way you've laid out the data, in any way whatsoever, even if they disbanded the day after killing Archi. They still lived through the tier.

I laid out the data the same way as you did - from DS till and including SoO. If guilds that die later are supposed to be included in your findings, that means that any guilds that defeated Garrosh, but then disbanded before WOD was released needs to be considered dead (such as Not So Serious). I can give that info because the tier is over, but you can't give that info because we're still in the middle of this tier.


I'm not saying it isn't possible that more guilds will disband - I'm just saying that the way you're looking at the data, 20 man is far better at retention than the previous system of 10+25. If you want to look at expansion burnout, then you need to look from T14-16 for MOP, and T17-18 for WOD after the tiers have ended and compare those - or if you want to find out just how many of the guilds died through the entire expansion, you need to compare SoO with T19 (legions first tier), and then compare T14 (DS) with 17 (WODs first tier). If you compare SoO to HFC, then these are the numbers you'll find, now or in 12 months.

[Deja Thoris]

True! 2 hours sleep just wrecked me too :/

[Nuckels]

The following post will probably get me infracted but its time I got this off my chest.

Anyone who thinks the removal of 10man raiding is killing WoW/guilds is fucking thick.
I was GM of a casual 10man guild, we ended SoO top 50 west and after that took a break to figure out what the plan was for legion.
After that that I decided to continue my guild back in to 20man (we were a 25man guild since wrath and swapped to 10man during first tier of mop).

So why did we go 10man? Because I coudn't recruit good people and I coudn't be fucked trying to anymore either. 10man was a easy way out, raid with people I enjoy, still do heroic and all is good. Slight problem? MoP raiding was terrible from a design standpoint, the tuning was god awful almost every boss for atleast one of the two difficulties, class balancing was a huge problem cause 10man guilds did not have all 10 classes in a raid. (Do you know how lame it was to do garrosh 10 hc pre nerf with no warlock?)

The reason guilds are disbanding has nothing to do with the lack of 10man, and it has everything to do with the following. One: the lack of GM's / Officers wanting to continue when legion feels miles away. Two: People who leave guilds for the most part take a break because they can still find a guild closer to legion, why farm HFC for another couple of months when they can do something they actually enjoy and come back to the game when there is actually something new to do. This makes recruitment a real pain. Three: The only thing you can blame Blizzard for is to not offer GM's a easy way out to go to 10man when they cant be fucked to put in the amount of effort it really requiers to run a succesfull 20man guild and instead prioritise balanced pve content.

The origin of the issue in the end comes down to leadership not wanting to try anymore as the amount of effort vs reward is shit and the fact Blizzard brings out content WAY to slowly at the end of a expansion making people not want to play.

10man being removed was good for the game, WoD raiding from a balancing and design PoV was done extremely well. Get your head out of your ass please if you think the issue guilds are dieing = no 10man. The root of the issue is way more complex as to why this game is dieing then most seem to even be able to comprehend.

[kamuimac]

The following post will probably get me infracted but its time I got this off my chest.

Anyone who thinks the removal of 10man raiding is killing WoW/guilds is fucking thick.
I was GM of a casual 10man guild, we ended SoO top 50 west and after that took a break to figure out what the plan was for legion.
After that that I decided to continue my guild back in to 20man (we were a 25man guild since wrath and swapped to 10man during first tier of mop).

So why did we go 10man? Because I coudn't recruit good people and I coudn't be fucked trying to anymore either. 10man was a easy way out, raid with people I enjoy, still do heroic and all is good. Slight problem? MoP raiding was terrible from a design standpoint, the tuning was god awful almost every boss for atleast one of the two difficulties, class balancing was a huge problem cause 10man guilds did not have all 10 classes in a raid. (Do you know how lame it was to do garrosh 10 hc pre nerf with no warlock?)

The reason guilds are disbanding has nothing to do with the lack of 10man, and it has everything to do with the following. One: the lack of GM's / Officers wanting to continue when legion feels miles away. Two: People who leave guilds for the most part take a break because they can still find a guild closer to legion, why farm HFC for another couple of months when they can do something they actually enjoy and come back to the game when there is actually something new to do. This makes recruitment a real pain. Three: The only thing you can blame Blizzard for is to not offer GM's a easy way out to go to 10man when they cant be fucked to put in the amount of effort it really requiers to run a succesfull 20man guild and instead prioritise balanced pve content.

The origin of the issue in the end comes down to leadership not wanting to try anymore as the amount of effort vs reward is shit and the fact Blizzard brings out content WAY to slowly at the end of a expansion making people not want to play.

10man being removed was good for the game, WoD raiding from a balancing and design PoV was done extremely well. Get your head out of your ass please if you think the issue guilds are dieing = no 10man. The root of the issue is way more complex as to why this game is dieing then most seem to even be able to comprehend.

so in your eyes 20 man format is a huge succes the only once at fault are those awefull bad majority playerbase who refuse to see its succes and who cant be arsed with recruitment for this marvelous 20 man format that everyone aroud adores only nobody want to put any effort in - everybody loves this 20 man format but at the same time nearly eveyrbody refuses to participate in it ye ? such a huge succes indeed.

[Nuckels]

so in your eyes 20 man format is a huge succes the only once at fault are those awefull bad majority playerbase who refuse to see its succes and who cant be arsed with recruitment for this marvelous 20 man format that everyone aroud adores only nobody want to put any effort in - everybody loves this 20 man format but at the same time nearly eveyrbody refuses to participate in it ye ? such a huge succes indeed.

You absolutely missed the point entirely, congratulations.

[Xilurm]

So, who is actually left for Legion?

[Deleted]

So, who is actually left for Legion?

Limit/Ascension will obtain the early world first bosses. Serenity is guaranteed the rest when EU servers open. Limit is guaranteed US first. Asian guilds are always reforming and renaming like always and their raids open too late anyways to obtain a world first. There is nothing else to the race anymore.

[Ebalina]

so in your eyes 20 man format is a huge succes the only once at fault are those awefull bad majority playerbase who refuse to see its succes and who cant be arsed with recruitment for this marvelous 20 man format that everyone aroud adores only nobody want to put any effort in - everybody loves this 20 man format but at the same time nearly eveyrbody refuses to participate in it ye ? such a huge succes indeed.

Oh my the blind rage within you is real.

[Raiju]

10man being removed was good for the game, WoD raiding from a balancing and design PoV was done extremely well. Get your head out of your ass please if you think the issue guilds are dieing = no 10man. The root of the issue is way more complex as to why this game is dieing then most seem to even be able to comprehend.

emphasis mine, I'm not sure that game they tried to preserve is going to be around much longer. On top of that 10man being removed is not a requirement of there being a single raid setting. It was a common argument that going to 15man would've posed a similar adapting difficulty to both 10 & 25, rather than the relative guildbreaking that happened in preparation of 20. Maybe 10 would've been the best single format to keep (I know that will be unpopular on a 25man centric board)

[Deleted]

Three: The only thing you can blame Blizzard for is to not offer GM's a easy way out to go to 10man when they cant be fucked to put in the amount of effort it really requiers to run a succesfull 20man guild and instead prioritise balanced pve content.

I would have worded it differently but yes, that's exactly what we've been saying on these forums. I was really surprised how I went from disagreeing with you, to agreeing with you as soon as you hit point 3.

You started as 25 man and went 10. We started as 10 and had to go 20. Not a pleasant change for us who got used to being able to play the game without doing 7 days of in-game admin work. We want to continue raiding the way we started.

[Dracodraco]

emphasis mine, I'm not sure that game they tried to preserve is going to be around much longer. On top of that 10man being removed is not a requirement of there being a single raid setting. It was a common argument that going to 15man would've posed a similar adapting difficulty to both 10 & 25, rather than the relative guildbreaking that happened in preparation of 20. Maybe 10 would've been the best single format to keep (I know that will be unpopular on a 25man centric board)

The argument, however common it is, is also 100% unsubstantiated though. I'd still argue that unless you were lucky enough to have enough people quit without ripping apart your roster (forcing you to recruit someone to replace them) before WOD, guilds that had to cut up to five people from their roster faced more drama than 10 mans who "just" had to recruit. It was so freaking easy to recruit during SoO compared to how it is now, because everyone needed to find a 20 man team to be a part of - there really wasn't any issue getting enough players, as evidenced by the many successfull 10->20 teams that popped up.