Mafia 68: The West Wing

[Deleted]

@Dendrek - why won't you lynch me? Everyone else is on the fence which is fair enough but you're so adamant that I'm not to be lynched

[Dendrek]

@Dendrek - why won't you lynch me? Everyone else is on the fence which is fair enough but you're so adamant that I'm not to be lynched

I thought you were Bartlet.

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Now I'm on the fence.

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Celtic responded and didn't immediately counter claim Ret. At this point, I believe Ret. God damn it Ret...

[Deleted]

Vote Count:

Kurenai: 3- Catta(1495)/ Celtic(1506)/ Robo(1543)
Reticence: 1- Dendrek(1544)


With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

[Dendrek]

Unvote

/10char

[Reticence]

Yes, well, I stayed up five hours later than I should have just to answer your questions.

I should really try to get some sleep if I'm going to be at all useful tomorrow.

Anyway, here's the theory I came up with. Maybe it's completely off, but I'd be remiss in my duties if I did not share it for consideration.

The one point you'll probably have the most trouble with is the idea that Largehorn and Uggor were on the same team. Me, personally, I think it's plausible, as I do feel that regardless of whether it was the same team or opposing, a Visitor that's a Thief would just have been called a Thief. That sort of distinction seems out of place to me for what amounts to duplicate cards, and I feel as if there's something more to the Visitor role that has been "modified" out of the flip. Historically, that's been a thing.

Beyond that, I think the vote records of the parties involved fit this, but, as I said, I haven't been taking very good notes this game, so I'd have to go back through the past 80 pages to verify all of the interactions.

Part Two: The Theory

Spoiler: 

In the West Wing, just because President Bartlet was a Democrat didn't mean that Democrats were the good guys and Republicans were the bad guys. What happened more often than not is the Presidential Staff would get caught between the two feuding parties. Not entirely inaccurate, I'm sure, and given Cruelle's general adherence to the themes that he creates, this makes sense to me from a setup perspective.

Theory Three: Two Teams: The More Likely Scenario
(Theory One was my original. Theory Two was the apocalyptic scenario in which Dendrek and Danner had fooled us all)
- Requires 3 OR 5 mafiosi
- West Wing Characters are TPRs
- Mafias are Democrat/Republican divided

Team 1 - The Democrats

Spoiler: 

• Virothe - Eli Warren (Elizabeth Warren), Senator

• Largehorn - Wilma Jefferson (William Jefferson), Visitor

• Uggor - Cindy Kruger (Carl Kruger), Thief

• ??

+

• ??

Team 2 - The Republicans

Spoiler: 

• Dupti - Mary McConnell (Mitch McConnell), Majority Leader

• ??

• ??

• ??

+

• Crackleslap - Betty O'Really (Bill O'Reilly), Commentator

West Wing

Spoiler: 

• Danner - Charlie Young

• Dendrek - Dr. Abigail Bartlet

• Probably the hardest pill for anyone to swallow with this theory is why Largehorn and Uggor have nearly-identical roles, and why they would be on the same team if they did. I don’t have a good answer for that except to say that I think there is more to the Visitor role than we know. If it's the same role on the same team, or the same role on a different team, I would still have expected it to just be called a Thief. It's not like we're in the habit of renaming Godfathers or Roleblockers for opposing teams. Sadly, this isn’t something we can really confirm until we see some of the Republican mafiosi drop.
  
  If we look at this purely through votes, however, you’ll see a late vote on Largehorn from Uggor, but otherwise not much interaction from them. So this is plausible in that regard.

• Given that Graeham is lying about his stunt with Valyrian and Kryllian likely tried to save Dupti, and operating under the assumption that the mafia teams are split Democrat and Republican, I have taken the liberty of placing Graeham under Uggor’s team and Kryllian under Dupti’s.

Given that Graeham is the last man standing on the Democrat’s side, this actually puts Catta into a better perspective for me:

• I believe Catta when he says that he can survivor win with the town and is the counterpart to Crackleslap. I do not believe that he is the town counterpart, but rather the Democratic counterpart.

• I also believe Catta when he says that he claimed because his vest popped. But I also believe he claimed because he figured this all out before we did and knows that his mafia team only has one person left. What this also means is that I believe Catta when he says that his best chance is to align himself with the town. Particularly if we remove Graeham, the only way he can win is with us, or by helping the Republicans win faster.

• I would just like to point out that this also means that Catta missed and hit his own teammate, Virothe. Between this and Polygons, let’s just never give Catta a Vigi role, ever.

• @Catta: As I dangerously approach territory that I never thought I'd be in, if the above is true, I feel that it is in your best interest to come forward and admit it, as I still feel that your best shot at winning is with the town. Normally this would prompt a policy lynch, but I don't feel it is in town's best interest to do so at this time. I cannot guarantee your safety later, however.

Updated List

Team 1 - The Democrats

• Virothe - Eli Warren (Elizabeth Warren), Senator

• Largehorn - Wilma Jefferson (William Jefferson), Visitor

• Uggor - Paul Kruger (Carl Kruger), Thief

• Graeham - Jane Biden (Joe Biden, obv), "Appealer"

+

• Catta - Beverly Marr (Bill Maher), Commentator

Team 2 - The Republicans

• Dupti - Mary McConnell (Mitch McConnell), Majority Leader

• Kryllian - ??, Appealer

• ??

• ??

+

• Crackleslap - Betty O'Really (Bill O'Reilly), Commentator

West Wing

• Danner - Charlie Young

• Dendrek - Dr. Abigail Bartlet

• Reticence - President Josiah Bartlet

And, at last, this means that two of the following people are Republican mafiosi:

• Celtic - Softclaimed Nothing Specific

• Kurenai

• Robo

• Xanjori

What’s Next?

• A: We can lynch Graeham because he’s a liar and because he’s the last Democrat. While this would not necessarily ensure that Catta would play ball with us (as a survivor win could still happen with the Republicans), it would likely remove a kill from play. However, this also allows the Republicans to hit us indiscriminately tonight. If we feel our TPRs are up to the challenge, this is a sensible course of action.

• B: We can lynch Kryllian because he very likely submitted the appeal on behalf of Dupti and the Republicans currently have three members at their disposal. This potentially leaves more kills in play that could hit us, but puts the Republicans in a less-stable position for endgame.

• C: We continue with lynching Kurenai and do option A or B tomorrow.

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See y'all tomorrow. And by tomorrow I mean in five hours.

[Dendrek]

I have a lot to reevaluate. But it's late and I'm tired (so much so that I almost typed that out as "I'm late and it's tired"). I'll try to have something useful typed up before the day ends. I really don't know who I want to push at the moment though.
@Graeham: You really need to respond to Ret's accusation.

[Catta]

stuff

No I don't win with "democrats" I win with the town. I am still not sold on there being two teams. I still think theres only one team with 2 kills or an SK about.

Furthermore I did tell you that Trump would have been my best interview - its not strictly partisan, its just about ratings.

[Deleted]

I thought you were Bartlet.

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Now I'm on the fence.

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Celtic responded and didn't immediately counter claim Ret. At this point, I believe Ret. God damn it Ret...

I'm not Bartlet but apparently I am/was white house staff

[Reticence]

No I don't win with "democrats" I win with the town. I am still not sold on there being two teams. I still think theres only one team with 2 kills or an SK about.

Fair enough. I'll factor that in to my possibilities.

You have to admit, though, Catta... that would be pretty funny, having to explain to your team that you killed one of them.

On that note, two topics for you:
1) Did you already say why you picked Virothe? If not, why did you?
2) If you are correct in that there is only one team, what do you make of the appeals? Does this scum team have two of them?

Furthermore I did tell you that Trump would have been my best interview - its not strictly partisan, its just about ratings.

Right, but I figured the ratings had more to do with the ability mechanics than it did your alignment. Trump has been high ratings for everyone, regardless of their affiliation.

On a general clarification/disclaimer note, the counter-theory posted above is just that, an alternative theory. I'm not even especially confident that it is more true than what's been theorized by Dendrek prior to me jumping on-board, but I do think a fair amount of it lines up rather nicely with what we know thus far. There is also some room for variability in it, as well, such as in the case of Catta / Crackleslap, so let me know if you think I should consider something in particular. Either way, I don't think it changes our strategy all that much, as I feel like there is some agreement on where to look for the remaining scum. The only strategy it might change is with regards to order, but even then I'm not so sure.

[Catta]

Fair enough. I'll factor that in to my possibilities.

You have to admit, though, Catta... that would be pretty funny, having to explain to your team that you killed one of them.

Something like that happened in the Drow Game. I was the investigator and got 2-3 of one team killed. It was only by sheer coincidence that it wasn't my team because in the end I won with the other team. The team I antagonized tried to kill me twice then gave up, then my own team tried to kill me and failed. Then they lynched me the day after.

1) I picked Virothe because I had a strong gutfeel he was scum and he tends to just scoot by without getting pressured like Robo.

2) No idea how the appeals work. I could imagine that town appealers had to post in the thread while the scum could post theirs in their QT and the thread.

[KurenaiXIII]

I'd like to know why the people voting me are adamant I'm scum.

I know Catta is hinging his vote on what I said about Uggor before his flip.

[Graeham]

@Reticence: I'm confused. I believe your claim - though I'm not certain why you're so insistent that I'm lying about my role. Are you absolutely certain that you're not mistaken? I assume that I have need to submit my appeal in the day thread because town works for the benefit of town and speaking up about my desire helps get a debate going. Scum, meanwhile, are more likely to have to be sneaky and avoid exposing themselves. If they have a QT it makes more sense that they'd place their appeal there.

@KurenaiXIII: I'm not certain either. The idea that you 'defended' Uggor is silly when people are being given a free pass for letting Dupti live for most of the game despite the immense amount of evidence against him as well as them letting Val die. At this point in the game scum are going to want to get a mislynch off on anyone who is town which is precisely why I haven't yet voted on you. I firmly believe at least one of the players on your train is scum.

[Deleted]

4 outta 10 votes with just under 7 hours to go

Come on people, time to decide

[Dendrek]

@Reticence, regarding your belief that Graeham lied about having to post in the game thread, how certain are you that he didn't? You said it was indicated he didn't have to, but is it possible you misinterpreted that rule? (If it was vaguely worded, it *might* have meant that it's possible for appeals not to be submitted in the game thread -- as evidence by the fact that Dupti's wasn't -- but not that all appealers are capable of appealing outside the game thread. Hopefully that makes sense.) Also, you said you get information from the appealer: When Graeham appealed Val's lynch, did you get any information from him?

Of your two suspicions, I am more inclined to lynch Kryllian. This, I believe, will provide us the greatest amount of information. I say this for two reasons: 1) If Kryllian actually made the appeal for Dupti, we will learn definitively what the role is of the scum player who can make that appeal. 2) I can't shake the feeling there is a town appealer, and despite the possibility that Graeham lied (and even if he did) that doesn't guarantee he's scum (although I will have lost all trust in him at that point), so it feels like a gamble to test your theory with him.

4 outta 10 votes with just under 7 hours to go

Come on people, time to decide

No...

Seriously. Do you not see what's going on today? You want to push someone to L-2 or L-1? The lack of votes is actually a very good and very important thing until we can figure out who we trust.

[Robozerim]

[b][size=3]
Since you have not been counterclaimed as members of the West Wing, I honestly believe that the two of you are town, which is why it's been so fucking frustrating trying to converse with you today, Dendrek. If you weren't so convinced that I was scum, I feel like you would have given my theories at least a moment more of consideration. And even if you ultimately disagreed with them, you would not have "immediately dismissed" them. That's not smart play, or town play. That's called tunnel vision, and if I'm right about the setup then this claim may be the only thing stopping you from playing directly into one of the team's hands.

All of that said, do not worry about me tonight. I half-expect I will be ignored now that they know who is receiving their appeals and now that I have called them out.

Trying to catch up before I have to go to work for the day, I'm not sure if I'll be back before day ends after I leave in less than half an hour.

I'm not saying those two aren't town, but we've had a couple of mafians claim characters from the show without being counterclaimed. Either they got lucky with picking names off the cast list, or they have some fake claims handy.

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Hm. I had nailed Celtic for the president role, that's why I was giving Celtic a pass for what I considered low profiling.
Ret claiming it... that's within parameters I guess. Unless someone wants to counterclaim Ret by now, I'd say his role is set.

The only lingering question in my mind is whether the president is a scum role. I mean, that could happen. It'd be the ultimate bastardry, but it's the kind of thing I would have done had I been the moderator. For now though, I have no immediate desire to lynch Reticence. But Dendrek's points are worth noting I think.

I would guess that the president is a survivor before I'd guess that he is scum, personally. Serial killer would also fit for me if there was any evidence at all that a serial killer actually existed in this game, but the kills would indicate not.

[Dendrek]

@KurenaiXIII: I'm not certain either. The idea that you 'defended' Uggor is silly when people are being given a free pass for letting Dupti live for most of the game despite the immense amount of evidence against him as well as them letting Val die. At this point in the game scum are going to want to get a mislynch off on anyone who is town which is precisely why I haven't yet voted on you. I firmly believe at least one of the players on your train is scum.

Despite the fact that I was wrong about Reticence on this: I still believe that unless Kurenai is clueless, there's no way he could have had any trust for Uggor (or the willingness to believe Uggor's claim that Dupti was lying) despite Uggor's soft scum claim. I hope it's clear what I mean by "soft scum claim." Uggor saying he knows who the real doctor is can only be true if he has a role check on the doctor. There's no way he could have had such a check unless he was in a scum team (or some kind of psudo-masonry with someone who had a role check ability), or if he was lying about his own abilities and checks. The one last possibility I could come up with is that he was given RP information in his QT (perhaps in his rolecard) that indicated who the real doctor was. The fact he would not explain how he knew meant we could eliminate all the possible town reasons for him knowing. That left only the scum reasons.

Maybe Kurenai was so driven to get Dupti lynched that he ignored such an obvious observation?

You said at least one scum is on his train. Unless there is only 1 mafia, this point is irrelevant. There could easily be scum from the opposing team pushing him. His own team member(s) could be pushing him if they think he's a lost cause.

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I'm not saying those two aren't town, but we've had a couple of mafians claim characters from the show without being counterclaimed. Either they got lucky with picking names off the cast list, or they have some fake claims handy.

It's not impossible, but how likely do you think it would be that the president's wife is one such fake claim? The fake claims we've seen were minor characters. (At least, that's my take on what Ret was saying. I personally wouldn't know.) That either means they don't have fake claims, in which case they had to be careful not to pick someone too obvious (or they didn't know what character would be best suited for their particular claim), of if fake claims are a thing then they aren't the obvious or prominent cast members.

[Robozerim]

It's not impossible, but how likely do you think it would be that the president's wife is one such fake claim? The fake claims we've seen were minor characters. (At least, that's my take on what Ret was saying. I personally wouldn't know.) That either means they don't have fake claims, in which case they had to be careful not to pick someone too obvious (or they didn't know what character would be best suited for their particular claim), of if fake claims are a thing then they aren't the obvious or prominent cast members.

I don't know how likely it is, and not a single one of these names mean anything to me. If you told me President Bartlet was a minor character in the show I wouldn't have the knowledge to say otherwise. I think that if I were moderating a game (not likely to happen anytime soon even if I wanted to), fake claims I gave wouldn't all be minor characters, some would be major. Is that the case this time? I dunno. Maybe? Maybe not. As I said, I'm not calling out the two of you as scum now. Still a little suspicious of Danner, but I'll put some trust in your insistence on him being town, at least for now anyway.

[Reticence]

@Reticence: I'm confused. I believe your claim - though I'm not certain why you're so insistent that I'm lying about my role. Are you absolutely certain that you're not mistaken?

I am quite certain.

I assume that I have need to submit my appeal in the day thread because town works for the benefit of town and speaking up about my desire helps get a debate going. Scum, meanwhile, are more likely to have to be sneaky and avoid exposing themselves. If they have a QT it makes more sense that they'd place their appeal there.

Town also have reason to file anonymously. Since your claim that you used a one-time appeal ability, you have essentially been a confirmed VT, and can no longer try to soak kills. The message included with your appeal also allows you to share your beliefs alongside your appeal, albeit only to those who can view the appeal. And I still contend that you can't really make a case for filing publicly to take a stand, given your lukewarm opinions prior to that point.

Scum also have a reason to make a spectacle out of it, hence my suspicion of you from the time of the appeal.

@Reticence, regarding your belief that Graeham lied about having to post in the game thread, how certain are you that he didn't? You said it was indicated he didn't have to, but is it possible you misinterpreted that rule? (If it was vaguely worded, it *might* have meant that it's possible for appeals not to be submitted in the game thread -- as evidence by the fact that Dupti's wasn't -- but not that all appealers are capable of appealing outside the game thread. Hopefully that makes sense.)

Also, you said you get information from the appealer: When Graeham appealed Val's lynch, did you get any information from him?

It does make sense, and I get what and why you're asking. I know what I want to say in reply to these questions, but I would like to run them by Cruelle before I do to ensure I'm not pushing any boundaries with my QT information.

What I will say for now is that based upon what I was told and when I was told it, it did not seem ambiguous to me in the slightest.

Stay tuned, please.

Of your two suspicions, I am more inclined to lynch Kryllian. This, I believe, will provide us the greatest amount of information. I say this for two reasons: 1) If Kryllian actually made the appeal for Dupti, we will learn definitively what the role is of the scum player who can make that appeal. 2) I can't shake the feeling there is a town appealer, and despite the possibility that Graeham lied (and even if he did) that doesn't guarantee he's scum (although I will have lost all trust in him at that point), so it feels like a gamble to test your theory with him.

I have no problem with that. We can also have Catta try to get Graeham onto his show and see what happens.

[Robozerim]

I would guess that the president is a survivor before I'd guess that he is scum, personally. Serial killer would also fit for me if there was any evidence at all that a serial killer actually existed in this game, but the kills would indicate not.

Actually, I rescind the serial killer part, as a serial killer wouldn't save anybody with the appeal system ever. It just wouldn't make any sense at all.

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Looking at the timer, I should be able to get back from work before the day ends....probably. I might be cutting it awfully close if it's really busy, though. I'll take off my vote and see what you guys want to do after I get back (I would still love to go after Graeham), but if you guys want to go after Kryllian instead, then I can go that route too, what with how the tpr's seem so certain about him being the one to send the other appeal.

unvote

And now I must leave. I'll see you guys in a few hours.

[Reticence]

It's not impossible, but how likely do you think it would be that the president's wife is one such fake claim? The fake claims we've seen were minor characters. (At least, that's my take on what Ret was saying. I personally wouldn't know.) That either means they don't have fake claims, in which case they had to be careful not to pick someone too obvious (or they didn't know what character would be best suited for their particular claim), of if fake claims are a thing then they aren't the obvious or prominent cast members.

I'll clarify this. Actually, having read your take on this I can see it being the cause for your suspicion of me on the day of Uggor's lynch, just as it was the cause for my actions on that day as well.

Obligatory spoilers alert in the following links, blah blah.

• Crackleslap claimed Annabeth Schott, who was somewhat prominent near the end of the series. It'd be a very believable fake-claim, but it's also the sort of perfectly prominent-but-not-quite-essential fakeclaim that I would expect from players with a history of pulling off believable claims as scum. It's hard to say.

• Dupti claimed Millicent Griffith, a Surgeon-General who was only in three episodes. Ultimately, that's why I suddenly began to doubt Dupti that day; prior to that, I made the mistake of trusting him, but I also anticipated him claiming Abigail Bartlet. When he didn't, I couldn't ignore the dissonance.

• Uggor claimed Toby Ziegler, one of the main characters. This is the one that concerns me, because an uncountered Toby is the closest thing to evidence of fake-claims that we've had this game.