Surprised to see a lack of debate about this.
Leave or remain?
I will vote leave because:
a) I do not feel, at heart, that I'm a "European" and I do not want further political or economic integration of the sort that the federalists in Brussels are pushing for. I believe that the original post WW2 argument that European countries who trade with each other are less likely to go to war has been superseded.
b) TTIP, specifically the introduction of ISDS (Investor State Dispute Settlements), which would allow companies to sue governments if those governments’ policies cause a loss of profits. A spectacular devaluation of democratic process, especially considering how the Tories are busy privatising the NHS. Enter Corbyn and then a host of American lawyers will be taking billions from the public purse. Completely unacceptable. TTIP fails to take into account ongoing variations in local political opinion.
c) Democratic accountability. Rightly or wrongly I feel the EU is a distant and unaccountable institution that I have little influence over. An unelected council drafts legislation that MEPs (assimilated into right, centre right, centre left, and left voting blocs) vote on? I just don't see how this is right. If there were a democratically elected President and European Commission I might feel differently about this, but that's not the case.
d) The incredible, overwhelmingly negative campaigning of the Remain camp. Not a day goes by without Cameron or Osborne trundling out some new apocalyptic statistic. If they were to actually say something positive for a change I might feel differently. But it's an ongoing onslaught of "you *WILL* lose £x" in relation to e.g. house prices and "you *WILL* lose £x" in relation to e.g. the cost of foreign holidays. It just puts my back up.
I will not vote leave because of fears about:
a) Immigration. Immigrants contribute a huge amount, culturally and economically, to the UK. I do not worry about strains on public services, although I accept that views will differ on this.
b) The costs of membership of the EU - 0.5% of GDP.
I am worried about voting leave because:
a) As a tax-payer who has had to tolerate 8 years of austerity, the immediate short-term economic effect of Brexit will be negative (even according to the least pessimistic of estimations). Having paid for the financial sector's shortcoming over the last 8 years, I'd then face a further 10 years of uncertainty, possible recession, further austerity, etc.
b) Destabilisation of the EU as a whole. In the face of increased economic protectionism e.g. Trump in the White House, China's distortion of commodity markets, and open military aggressiveness from e.g. Russia. Can the EU afford to lose the UK?
UK folk - how will you vote and what are you reasons for doing so?
:::::::::::::::::
Edit: 25/06/16
So, the UK voted to Leave by 51.9% - 48.1%
Over the last 20 days or so since I made this post, and having done a lot research, I chose to alter my initial stance and voted Remain on the basis that my fears regarding the potential economic downturn following a Leave vote, in both the short term and the long term, outweighed all other considerations.
It's too early to tell what will happen. In the very short term, the financial markets have made clear they don't like uncertainty and reacted accordingly. We'll see.
The result is hardly an unequivocal triumph for the Leave camp. 17,410,742 voters of a total electorate of ~46,500,000. England & Wales choosing to Leave, Scotland & Northern Ireland choosing to Remain.
Personally, I see a deeply divided UK. Voters heavily split by the region they live in, their age & their class. I sense no feeling of overwhelming euphoria. No sense of elation. Just a huge amount of division.
This was a massive, massive decision. As the Guardian puts it: "[it] represents a turning point in British history to rank alongside the two world wars of the 20th century". I sincerely hope all those who voted made their choice after considering the arguments carefully. I also hope that the two sides can unite now and work to address the economic & political change that will follow as a result.