BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Wildtree]

Newsflash, the prime trade partner of the UK is the United State who is, another newsflash, not an EU member.

That is not really the correct answer...

The USA is the UK's #1 export partner. Germany is the UK's #1 Import partner.
Plus, the USA is just one country, and on the other side of the planet.
While right outside the UK's doors is mainland Europe with the rest of the UK's most important trade partners.

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

[Deleted]

Those two years are basically just the overture. You'll need an estimated 10 years to negotiate THE EXIT. You seem to be under the impression that these negotiations are part of a new trade agreement. They're not, the purpose of these negotiations is to finalise the termination of your membership. This is not an opportunity for you to win. This is the only way for you to not instantly lose all agreements in one go.

WTF takes so long? Are they such goddamn slackers? It could be done within 1-2 months if you put some effort into it.
How long did the accession of Crimea into the Russian Federation take? Maybe 2 weeks?

[Deleted]

Those two years are basically just the overture. You'll need an estimated 10 years to negotiate THE EXIT. You seem to be under the impression that these negotiations are part of a new trade agreement. They're not, the purpose of these negotiations is to finalise the termination of your membership. This is not an opportunity for you to win. This is the only way for you to not instantly lose all agreements in one go.

Alright, we've got 10 years to negotiate our new trade deals with the EU before we even leave, that sounds great. What was your point again?

[Jessicka]

WTF takes so long? Are they such goddamn slackers? It could be done within 1-2 months if you put some effort into it.
How long did the accession of Crimea into the Russian Federation take? Maybe 2 weeks?

We don't have negotiators any more, we let the EU do that because the collective organisation had significantly more weight.

[Gangresnake]

Ok, the UK now has a 160 trillion Euros GDP. That happened mighty fast.

If you repeat it enough, it might become true. I suggest donating sour grape on your altar for Juncker.

Realistically speaking. Nothing changed overnight so far. Market is overreacting to change as it always do and people are waving it around as a political tool as they always do while no one have any proper hindsight on what will really happen.

[mvaliz]

So... Silly question, but can they re-vote to stay in at some point? I think a nice long period of England in a recession might prove a bit of a motivator to rejoin

[Mehrunes]

I'm not saying it'd be a total slap in the face of democracy, but there is still a huge difference between leaving the EU, considering the vast shift and changes that it's gone through since we joined just a mere 40 years ago, to a country breaking a union that has held for many more, and where cultural ties and relationships are far stronger than those of the E.U.

And all those vast shift and changes by default apply to your own union because they are a change of circumstances under which said union continues. Not to mention UK pushed for many of these shifts and changes.

[Slant]

Sounds like sour grapes to me. UK is 5th largest economy in the world.; it's nothing to sneeze at. Also, I have to wonder if other countries will follow suit. Greece? Spain even? If another major EU country puts up for exit, the EU's standing will be very seriously questioned.

UK vs. EU. Are people still not able to make that comparison? Keep telling yourself that shit about the 5th largest economy if it helps you sleep at night, but you're missing the point nonetheless...

[Deleted]

I think this issue might have just turned me into a begrudging Tory. Do I need to buy a starter kit, a new set of ties, or something...

[Macaquerie]

That is not really the correct answer...

The USA is the UK's #1 export partner. Germany is the UK's #1 Import partner.
Plus, the USA is just one country, and on the other side of the planet.
While right outside the UK's doors is mainland Europe with the rest of the UK's most important trade partners.

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

Also worth noting that the UK has less trade with the US than Germany does, let alone the entire EU.

[Jessicka]

Alright, we've got 10 years to negotiate our new trade deals with the EU before we even leave, that sounds great. What was your point again?

Nope, we have 2 years. If we stretch it out 10 years, there'll be nothing left to save thanks to the uncertainty that'll generate. Over night our stock exchange lost £200Bn, that's 24 years worth of membership fees. Sterling lost 10% of it's value. And we dropped behind France as an economic power. You seriously think we can stand 10 years of dicking about?

[Kalador]

This debate on Brexit is interesting to watch from Québec. The same arguments are served by the parties in Québec and UK.

- If we leave, we will have better control, especially immigration, taxation, laws, etc.
- If we leave, it will be catastrophic for our economy.
- The other party will reply: we will overcome those turmoils, and be better off in the long run.
- If we leave, Canada/EU will make us pay for it dearly, and cut all ties.
- The Yes/Leave party would reply that they would hurt themselves if they do, and will reach a quick agreement with Qc/UK.
- USA/France will back us.
- From some Canadians/Europeans: Qc/UK are all a bunch of whiners that slows the federation down.
- Scotland will leave/ Montreal West Island will leave.

And so on. Very instructive indeed. And ironic. To think that a Quebecer could compare Québec with the United Kingdom...

If you're going out, don't forget your umbrellas, because it looks that pigs will fly.

Yeah the only thing is EU country are in the peak of it and we are past that, what are the latest poll for independence ... 25%... maybe even lower now that we have Trudeau.

[Daws]

Time to see what politicians across Europe are really made off. This could be an orderly and shining example of diplomacy at its best or a no holds barred grudge match where everyone come off battered.

So far though one of the stranger points is that EU presidency is due to pass to UK next year and unless they do some fast maneuvering that won't change.

[Jessicka]

UK vs. EU. Are people still not able to make that comparison? Keep telling yourself that shit about the 5th largest economy if it helps you sleep at night, but you're missing the point nonetheless...

6th largest now thanks to this result.

[Deleted]

Nope, we have 2 years. If we stretch it out 10 years, there'll be nothing left to save thanks to the uncertainty that'll generate. Over night our stock exchange lost £200Bn, that's 24 years worth of membership fees. Sterling lost 10% of it's value. And we dropped behind France as an economic power. You seriously think we can stand 10 years of dicking about?

But Slant just said that it would take 10 years, and he's the expert on the EU.

[Mehrunes]

It's easy to sit on a high horse and start blocking people when you just got your will confirmed by a vote. Small minds do that. It's up to you now to convince everyone else that this can work for both sides. Because as it stands now, I will tell my representative to pass the message on that I want the UK to be actually "out". No special deals, no access, no nothing.

Well, technically they already announced that Oo

[Slant]

WTF takes so long? Are they such goddamn slackers? It could be done within 1-2 months if you put some effort into it.
How long did the accession of Crimea into the Russian Federation take? Maybe 2 weeks?

You do realise that the British Government has to go through the entire British legislation to re-affirm laws if they're based on EU legislation? That alone takes the better part of a decade and will pay for quite a few retirement homes. And as a professor actually working in this field pointed out, the UK will have to renegotiate trade agreements that the EU made on their behalf... with some 70odd countries. And they're barely capable to negotiate more than 1 at a time... Do you think legislation and policy is some sort of Risk game that you can finish in three hours? There's a reason you have paid professionals doing that sort of stuff... it's complicated shit.

[Deleted]

But Slant just said that it would take 10 years, and he's the expert on the EU.

In 10 years, most of the Leave voters will be dead in their graves, leaving the rest to deal with something they never wanted in the first place.

[Jessicka]

But Slant just said that it would take 10 years, and he's the expert on the EU.

Ten years was a figure thrown about by both sides to assuage fears about it being a rapid turnover. The reality is that economically, that'd be catastrophic.

A bit part of the Leave campaign was about it not having to happen over night, if at all because the negotiations and new terms might mean we can change our minds and in that sort of length of time not look completely stupid.

[Kallisto]

Sounds like sour grapes to me. UK is 5th largest economy in the world.; it's nothing to sneeze at. Also, I have to wonder if other countries will follow suit. Greece? Spain even? If another major EU country puts up for exit, the EU's standing will be very seriously questioned.

Not 5th anymore it's already dropped below France.