I KNEW the movie would flop

[Pann]

Really? http://www.businessinsider.com/ameri...es-less-2014-1

Yes, really. There was a sharp decline in the mid 2000s, which I am sure even you can see how an event 11 years ago is not relevant. Last year 1319 million movie tickets were sold in the US and Canada compared to 1268 million in 2014, 1343million in 2013, 1361.5 in 2012.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/1...ce-since-1980/

A 3% drop last year from the peak of the last 5 years is not, as you claim, indicative of Americans not going to the movies much any more.

[Seefer]

Yes, really. There was a sharp decline in the mid 2000s, which I am sure even you can see how an event 11 years ago is not relevant. Last year 1319 million movie tickets were sold in the US and Canada compared to 1268 million in 2014, 1343million in 2013, 1361.5 in 2012.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/1...ce-since-1980/

A 3% drop last year from the peak of the last 5 years is not, as you claim, indicative of Americans not going to the movies much any more.

If you are going to sit there and tell me that less people are going because of price and convenience then I dunno what to tell ya. Not to mention those years had comic book movies out which kids freak the fuck out about not to mention Harry Potter.

[Pann]

If you are going to sit there and tell me that less people are going because of price and convenience then I dunno what to tell ya. Not to mention those years had comic book movies out which kids freak the fuck out about not to mention Harry Potter.

What? You're not making any sense. You claimed "Fact: Americans don't go to the movies much anymore it costs too much..." and now you're saying, well, I don't actually know what you're saying. Your assertion that kids freak the fuck out for comic book movies and Harry Potter would appear to be at odds with your previous claim.

[DeadlyAccuracy]

So many armchair analysts here giving their input if it's even, not even, never going to be even etc. Do the film-makers wish they'd have done better in the US? absolutely! Did they foresee not doing well in the US and maybe chose to delay the launch and make plans around other markets or even other methods of creating revenue from the movie? again, very possible! We don't even have the exact data to tell what is even and what is not, but even if we could make a decent approximation, the only revenue we're analyzing is the ticket sales....

[Relapses]

So many armchair analysts here giving their input if it's even, not even, never going to be even etc. Do the film-makers wish they'd have done better in the US? absolutely! Did they foresee not doing well in the US and maybe chose to delay the launch and make plans around other markets or even other methods of creating revenue from the movie? again, very possible! We don't even have the exact data to tell what is even and what is not, but even if we could make a decent approximation, the only revenue we're analyzing is the ticket sales....

A good 100 pages of this thread can be summarized as one person saying, "I thought the movie did great and it'll get sequels. Here's the reason why: {cites commonly known information}" followed by another saying "Well, I don't think it'll get sequels and here's the reason why: {cites the same information with a different perspective}."

[CostinR]

Maybe, although realize there's a lag on the reporting of the international numbers. I think it has a good shot at passing 450.

The big question is what that international number means. In particular, what fraction of the China box office flows back to Legendary, and also what fraction flows to Wanda (which owns Legendary). Considerations like these, which are somewhat opaque, will determine how satisfied the backers are with the outcome.

I doubt Activision-Blizzard is very happy with how the movie did in NA/EU (where I imagine they hoped it would cause an increase in subs). I wonder how long ago they knew it wasn't likely to be a hit?

It actually did quite well in Europe, at least in countries that had and may still have an a large active Warcraft player base. As for NA, not surprising as NA never really was the place for the most dedicated fans and this movie is only really good for those kind of people. Remove the Warcraft universe and all that attachment people have and it's a very shitty movie.

[Count Zero]

People are really discounting some of the variables here that are not hard numbers. Warcraft is the movie that in future decades analysts will point to as the herald of the coming shift in global box office revenue. The Chinese backers are probably chomping at the bit to get a sequel, and they will pay what it takes to convince the Western backers to chip in again. Warcraft basically is the poster child for the power of the Chinese box office right now, and they will not let the train stop here.

Of course I could be wrong, and either way we're pretty much right in the territory where it looks like it might just get a sequel anyway even without the factors I mentioned. But I'm about willing to bet real money that we hear that the Chinese backers are in for a bigger percentage of the sequel.

[Roadblock]

Blizzard fanboys are good for entertainment.

WoW Subs cut in half in 5months: The mmo genre is dying, the subscription model is dead.
WoW Movie tanks in the west: Future analysts will look at this as the start of the shift in global box office revenue.

If you're going to be an apologist at least go big I guess...

[Zoldor]

Movie cost 160mil budget. So far global total at Box Office Mojo states 413 mil. Think it will be fine with sequels even if it did poorly domestically. The US isn't the most important market all the time.

[Count Zero]

Blizzard fanboys are good for entertainment.

WoW Subs cut in half in 5months: The mmo genre is dying, the subscription model is dead.
WoW Movie tanks in the west: Future analysts will look at this as the start of the shift in global box office revenue.

If you're going to be an apologist at least go big I guess...

Joke all you want

This article written 2 years ago:
"Just 10 years ago, American box office accounted for 51.3 percent of worldwide gross. Last year that number was down to 42.9 percent."

And this:
"The Chinese box office is expected to generate $10.3 billion next year, while the U.S. will be at $10.1 billion. By 2020, the Chinese box office will reach $15.1 billion versus just $11 billion in the U.S.

So it won't even be 10 / 20 years from now. It'll be 10 / 20 months from now.

[Count Zero]

Now if only they got the same ROI from the Chinese box office that they do from the domestic BO.

Do you know what percentage the various backers (Western vs Chinese) are in for ? Also remember that Legendary and Wanda group have a relationship which may also affect how things get allocated.

[glowpipe]

Just saw the movie today. For what it was. A warcraft movie. It was amazing. If you aren't into warcraft lore and don't care about it. maybe you should have watched lotr or the twilight instead ?

Now bring on a warcraft movie duing the scourge. Fuck yes!

[Relapses]

Do you know what percentage the various backers (Western vs Chinese) are in for ? Also remember that Legendary and Wanda group have a relationship which may also affect how things get allocated.

There have also been claims of fraud. The movie definitely made a metric fuckton money in China but it remains unclear exactly how successful it was and how much of its success was potentially overstated.

[Count Zero]

There have also been claims of fraud. The movie definitely made a metric fuckton money in China but it remains unclear exactly how successful it was and how much of its success was potentially overstated.

Hadn't heard about this but it wouldn't shock me to find out it's true. I can see someone fudging some initial number reports.

[Relapses]

Hadn't heard about this but it wouldn't shock me to find out it's true. I can see someone fudging some initial number reports.

http://chinafilminsider.com/china-bo...come-scrutiny/

Of note, a theater in a flooded city reported an average of 130 viewers per screening.

[prwraith]

http://chinafilminsider.com/china-bo...come-scrutiny/

Of note, a theater in a flooded city reported an average of 130 viewers per screening.

If a theater in a completely flooded city is reporting that I think we can safely say wanda committed quite a bit of fraud.

[Vulgrym]

Up to #10 on the year with $413M. Doesn't look like it'll climb much higher, but I'm pretty happy that the overseas box-office means a follow-up is likely.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/...yr=2016&p=.htm

[Count Zero]

Up to #10 on the year with $413M. Doesn't look like it'll climb much higher, but I'm pretty happy that the overseas box-office means a follow-up is likely.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/...yr=2016&p=.htm

I feel like that's about the same # it's been reporting since before it opened in Japan, tho. But I wasn't paying super close attention until I heard the news of it opening in Japan, so

[clevin]

Joke all you want

This article written 2 years ago:
"Just 10 years ago, American box office accounted for 51.3 percent of worldwide gross. Last year that number was down to 42.9 percent."

And this:
"The Chinese box office is expected to generate $10.3 billion next year, while the U.S. will be at $10.1 billion. By 2020, the Chinese box office will reach $15.1 billion versus just $11 billion in the U.S.

So it won't even be 10 / 20 years from now. It'll be 10 / 20 months from now.

The other issue is that it's even more lopsided for the blockbusters that are released both in the US and China. Keep in mind that not all US movies show there... they allow something like 24 non-Chinese movies in per year and those tend to be blockbusters that don't require the Chinese audience to be fluent in English or get American cultural references to enjoy the movie.

[Plehnard]

Up to #10 on the year with $413M. Doesn't look like it'll climb much higher, but I'm pretty happy that the overseas box-office means a follow-up is likely.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/...yr=2016&p=.htm

Man! Talk about bombing. The new Alice film is a real disaster. Independence day seems to have serious problems as well. Turtles barely turning over more than than production costs.
This year looks like a bomb for a lot of bigger productions.