Quinnipiac Poll July 13: Trump tied or beating Clinton in OH, FL, and PA

[Masark]

Well, that is very difficult to tell. It is certainly true that younger people vote overwhelmingly democratic, but just the opposite is true as people age. Not all baby boomers came out of the womb republican after all. There was something called the 60s if I do remember my history lessons.

Hippies were a small minority in their time, not a majority like pop culture likes to depict.

And the older=more republican thing isn't really correct. It's more strongly associated with the party that was in power when you started voting and how good a job they were doing. If they were seen as good (Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Reagan, Bush), you'll likely keep voting for them. If they sucked (Carter, Nixon), you'll likely vote for the other party forever.

[Deathquoi]

I don't understand where your getting your information from.

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No, it just means that at this very point in history, this is what the polls tell us. A few weeks ago it was a different story.

What about the other polls at this very point in history that say that Clinton is ahead?

[alexw]

Being to the Left and voting for the DNC are not the same thing. Plenty of people are theoretically ideal voters and simply don't vote.

You say the DNC is assured victory from this future advantage, but youth voting only really shot up for Obama once, and since then has been as dead as normal, with Obama struggling to keep those voters. You said if people vote the same way three times they are locked in? But how much of the youth vote actually went for for the Democrats and how much continued to go for the Democrats.

What I see is the DNC believing it can have its cake and eat it too.

Umm actually the data shows that the youth vote was roughly the same in 2012 (19% of the electorate) as it was in 2008 (18% of the electorate). That data also shows that it went overwhelmingly to Obama (67% vs 30% for Romney), and that without it everyone would be calling Romney "Mr President" these last 4 years.

[ControlWarrior]

Hippies were a small minority in their time, not a majority like pop culture likes to depict.

And the older=more republican thing isn't really correct. It's more strongly associated with the party that was in power when you started voting and how good a job they were doing. If they were seen as good (Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Reagan, Bush), you'll likely keep voting for them. If they sucked (Carter, Nixon), you'll likely vote for the other party forever.

Successful peace/wartime presidents like Roosevelt can shift a generation of voters, but voters don't typically become more "liberal" as they age.

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What about the other polls at this very point in history that say that Clinton is ahead?

Those are snapshots too, but the thread I posted in was about this one in particular. Your welcome to start a new thread about those ones.

[Tijuana]

Hippies were a small minority in their time, not a majority like pop culture likes to depict.

And the older=more republican thing isn't really correct. It's more strongly associated with the party that was in power when you started voting and how good a job they were doing. If they were seen as good (Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Reagan, Bush), you'll likely keep voting for them. If they sucked (Carter, Nixon), you'll likely vote for the other party forever.

So you define the "party in power" as who holds the white house only? The Republicans only had control of Congress for about 10 of the years on your chart. Just sayin...not sure on that study conclusion.

[alexw]

I don't understand where your getting your information from.

Looks like I need to explain. In midterms like 2010 and 2014 only a portion of the electorate votes and mostly the older part. Ergo democrats win the overall electorate as presidential elections years show, but in off years because only the older part of it votes they don't do well in it. But that older part is shrinking and dying off and slowly being replaced by democrats. So its only a matter of time before the democrats electorate wins translate into off year wins too.

[Celista]

Trump bringing in 0% of the black vote in Ohio

Lol, damn.

That isn't just low, that is impressively low. Way to go, Trump.

[alexw]

So you define the "party in power" as who holds the white house only? The Republicans only had control of Congress for about 10 of the years on your chart. Just sayin...not sure on that study conclusion.

People always end up blaming or praising the president for whatever happens during that presidents term in office even if he has little/nothing to do with whatever happened.

[Tijuana]

Looks like I need to explain. In midterms like 2010 and 2014 only a portion of the electorate votes and mostly the older part. Ergo democrats win the overall electorate as presidential elections years show, but in off years because only the older part of it votes they don't do well in it. But that older part is shrinking and dying off and slowly being replaced by democrats. So its only a matter of time before the democrats electorate wins translate into off year wins too.

You are assuming people stay liberal for life and the reality is just not there. People have been saying as soon as these conservatives all die, the world will be liberal for 100 years or more now.

[Masark]

So you define the "party in power" as who holds the white house only?

For the purpose of this discussion, yes. The President is much more visibly and memorably in power than Congress, so they make the major impression on the new voter. There's a reason why voter turnout picks up during presidential election years.

[ControlWarrior]

Looks like I need to explain. In midterms like 2010 and 2014 only a portion of the electorate votes and mostly the older part. Ergo democrats win the overall electorate as presidential elections years show, but in off years because only the older part of it votes they don't do well in it. But that older part is shrinking and dying off and slowly being replaced by democrats. So its only a matter of time before the democrats electorate wins translate into off year wins too.

But the republicans won a 33 seat lead in 2012.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...lections,_2012

Despite Democrats having a bigger turnout. You cannot rely on national totals if they don't translate into local and state victories.

[Blur4stuff]

This is what happened from FBI director calling Clinton a careless liar on national TV. If you're a trump supporter you should be worried.

Trump will get a boost next week (maybe) from convention. Then Clinton is gonna get a really big one in the following weeks.

[Tijuana]

But the republicans won 33 seats in 2012.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...lections,_2012

Despite Democrats having a bigger turnout. You cannot rely on national totals if they don't translate into local and state victories.

100% this^

It's way more complicated that people make it out. You have regional bias, turn out, who is up for what seat when, etc.

[Kraenen]

Lol, damn.

That isn't just low, that is impressively low. Way to go, Trump.

Propaganda must be working?

[alexw]

But the republicans won a 33 seat lead in 2012.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...lections,_2012

Despite Democrats having a bigger turnout. You cannot rely on national totals if they don't translate into local and state victories.

*sigh*. I suggest you reread what I posted a couple dozen times until it actually sinks into that brain of yours. I cannot help you more than that.

[Masark]

100% this^

It's way more complicated that people make it out. You have regional bias, turn out, who is up for what seat when, etc.

Or in the case of 2012, simple out and out cheating in the form of gerrymandering.

[ControlWarrior]

*sigh*. I suggest you reread what I posted a couple dozen times until it actually sinks into that brain of yours. I cannot help you more than that.

It's okay to have an opinion, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[Tijuana]

*sigh*. I suggest you reread what I posted a couple dozen times until it actually sinks into that brain of yours. I cannot help you more than that.

I read what you posted, and I understand it. He posted facts that counter your assertion. Now you just say he doesn't understand? He literally refuted what you said with actual data. I don't get people like this.

[alexw]

You are assuming people stay liberal for life and the reality is just not there. People have been saying as soon as these conservatives all die, the world will be liberal for 100 years or more now.

No people tend to stay with whatever they align themselves with when they come of age. You only need to look at the data I and Masark posted to see that.

Oh and the western world has gradually become more liberal over the last 100 years. It used to be that children worked in mines, women could not vote, and gays were jailed. Not anymore....

[Tijuana]

Or in the case of 2012, simple out and out cheating in the form of gerrymandering.

Please, tell me more. I am interested to hear what your definition of gerrymandering is, and how you propose those lines be drawn fairly (hint: they can't ever be).

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No people tend to stay with whatever they align themselves with when they come of age. You only need to look at the data I and Masark posted to see that.

Oh and the western world has gradually become more liberal over the last 100 years. It used to be that children worked in mines, women could not vote, and gays were jailed. Not anymore....

So you equate any cultural progress to being liberalism? Wow, that's interesting, to say the least. All good is your guys, all bad is those other guys, amirite?

People becoming more conservative as they age is not a new concept and it's refuted by few. Your chart that shows people are 3% more likely to be Republicans if they turned 18 under Reagan in no way addresses the issue of people changing their politics. It only shows where they stand today, or did on that day. So, grats on finding a chart that loosely supports your claim, but you failed on disproving a long held belief that is shared by a massive majority of humans.