I really doubt it.
Erdogan may be thin skinned, paranoid and defensive, but the people around him are not idiots. They know the next President is going to take the games that Erdogan has been able to play the last 8 years, far less willingly.
Here;s my prediction. He'll huff and puff about it until the new Administration comes to power, and then his entire approach will be de-Americanized to reflected the needs to work with the new government here. If needed, he'll tag the Obama Administration about it.
America is too powerful, too involved in the region and Turkey, for Turkey to do anything drastic. And Turkey is too dependent on it. That's Erdogan's stopping-point. We're not going away or anything. If we were to leave Turkey we would double down on Romania and Greece and Iraq. He would still have to talk to us about pretty much everything that happens outside Turkey's borders.
Alienating us wins him nothing and gets him nowhere.
And he knows Turkey's value to NATO, although I will admit, seeing the state of the coup-Turkish military has me deeply concerned about it's potency. As I said then, it looked like an Army straight out of the Vietnam era. Where was the modern vehicles, the body armor, the professional troops that we've seen used before in Afghanistan? They put a bunch of kids with World War II era helmets, some old rifles and not so much as a flak jacket in the streets and called it a coup.
Because he knows Turkey's value to NATO, he'll be a pain in the ass and drive a hard bargain because he wants something. That is how Erdogan has worked since 2002. Maybe it'll be as simple as a bunch of military freebees to "defend democracy in Turkey". Maybe it'll be technology transfers (Turkey building up an independent defense industrial base has long been a key Turkish foreign/security/economic/industrial goal) and domestic production contracts.
I think the conversation is really far too dramatic. Erdogan may feel vulnerable, but without NATO and with Russia tied down in Ukraine and Syria, it would be all on it's own, surrounded by hostile actors. He needs one side to be friendly, even if he is always mad at it.
I am reading that Turkey is considering reinstating the death penalty and they will hold a referendum on it. Apparently these news will appear in an interview that the Turkish FM gave to Frankfurter Allgemeine Ζeitung Sunday edition.
The US Governent loves to meddle into the affairs of every country around the world, ESPECIALLY in the Middle East... so I wouldn't be surprised.
Things are gonna get rough on Sunday in Germany. Cologne supposedly has a protest rally with organisators claiming 30k Turks will attend. The question everyone else is asking, why the fuck do Turks in Germany make a rally for something that's essentially not concerning us? A lot of people would like to shut them up. Alas, free speech and all that jazz...
Ironically, the Kurds aren't going to protest that rally, fearing it might lead to violence. Who's the evil guy here now? :P
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36925723
That was really unexpected lol.
He's specifically not dropping the lawsuit against that German goat-joker. This is just appeasement in his own country. Besides, if he drops the lawsuits now it makes big press and when he picks them up again later, he can have harsher laws installed AND controls the press to an extent that they'll celebrate it as some sort of victory for democracy or some other bullshit.
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Lol, the Germans at it again...
If the US had been involved, I'm pretty sure Erdogan would've been shot down and the palace blown to hell and back. We are not that incompetent at overthrowing leaders we dislike.
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What the hell...? Do you see the way this guy talks? 'Know your place!' 'Mind your own business.' 'One-off gesture of goodwill.' and so on. What an arrogant douchebag.
Hahahahaha, everyone and their dead great grandparents know that Erdogan organised the coup himself, people knew that half an hour into the "coup" ... seems that Turkey really wants the whole world to hate them. Oh well, whatever ...
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Well yeah, vote yes to death penalty or be shot.
So, curious... how long does the "state of emergency" have to last beyond the 3 months for it to be clear who was behind the coup? Or is "state of emergency" just assumed from the outset to be open-ended, even if there is a timeline? Not trying to be snarky... genuinely curious.
r.i.p. alleria. 1997-2017. blizzard ruined alleria forever. blizz assassinated alleria's character and appearance.
i will never forgive you for this blizzard.
Turks blow off at anything at times. Fuck knows why. As people in Germany go, nobody is as emotional and proud as the Turks. Every rally has police escorting it as a matter of public safety and order, both to protect the rally from protesters and to protect the public from the rally. There's no intervention of the police unless you deviate from the agreed organisational plan.
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I know that this rally was prohibited, people took the case to the court and that's how they were able to rally up. The question is why is West. full of Western values, trying to shut people up? And why suddenly all FoS lover Westerners, such as yourself, taking negative stance.
It's quite funny that your perspective is pretty much shaped by Western Media
sheep.
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Western media started to pump weird news about Turkey like hell:
- The west claims this is a Kemalist coup
Reality: No, this is an Islamist coup
- West claims Erdogan is trying to shut opposition up
Reality: No, he's exclusively targeting Gulenists for now. Entire opposition (MHP, CHP, HDP) is supporting this purge.
- Turkey is going to be new Syria
Reality: No, Turkey is probably safer compared to few months ago, considering Gulenists are cleansed (not yet fully) from Army and other institutions of bureaucracy.
Obviously, they are trying to achieve something. This all started after Erdogan took a clear con-Western stance. And the very first victim I could spot is @Slant. Poor fella is now in a completely different mentality compared to a month ago. His entire perspective is shaped by his media
Last edited by Kuntantee; 2016-07-30 at 08:43 PM.