UK already entering recession say economists

[ranzino]

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty does not say that the exit process cannot be stopped or cancelled.

All it says, is

Any member can ask to leave
The exit is subject to approval by the parliament and council

AFAIK the process is irreversible, because you need the consent of the EU ( of every member, not just a majority) to call it off OR for longer term of negotiations ?
Next general election is scheduled for may 2020, unless parliament disassembles itself earlier. some chance then the winner of the election is not the same party who startet the art. 50 process.

[Teaklog]

First you say that they will enter into a recession during Q3 and Q4 until early 2017, then you go on to say that growth will be .1%... Thats not a recession

A recession is two consequtive quarters of NEGATIVE GDP growth. Do not say "its the same thing," because you said they are entering a technical recession, then proceed with describing what is technically not a recession.

[ranzino]

First you say that they will enter into a recession during Q3 and Q4 until early 2017, then you go on to say that growth will be .1%... Thats not a recession

A recession is two consequtive quarters of NEGATIVE GDP growth. Do not say "its the same thing," because you said they are entering a technical recession, then proceed with describing what is technically not a recession.

0.1 growth is still bad.

[Gorsameth]

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty does not say that the exit process cannot be stopped or cancelled.

article 50 has no cancellation built into it. Once it is triggered the country is out of the EU after 2 years and the only option is to extend to delay but that requires a unanimous vote from all EU members.

[Teaklog]

0.1 growth is still bad.

Oh yeah its bad but its not a recession

[Deleted]

You're arguing semantics at this point.

[Deleted]

You're arguing semantics at this point.

Welcome to every thread on this forum ever

[Deleted]

100 is a joke number for Britain. In fact, it's a joke number for any country with similar demographic figures. Their population is around 65 million. Also, Britain has one of the best foreign departments in the world, certainly the best in Europe.

I wonder why do you think the answer is no.

because the UK foreign department currently is A, doing things, B, Doing other things more specifically, and that number was per treaty basically, C, those workers do not have the requisite skill-set still, because for the last 40 years they have been doing different things.
watch this.

I have no idea what you are even saying. The UK drafting something similar to NAFTA with other countries, even EU countries in the future is almost certainly going to happen to keep their economy afloat.

A, they cant do that until they leave, that will take about a decade -
B, so in 12 years, (at best) you will have something like now, but not as good, (because you have way less negotiating power)
have fun - and watch the video.

[Themius]

ooh the pound is so cheap... time for passport renewal.

[Deleted]

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty does not say that the exit process cannot be stopped or cancelled.

it does not say it can either though.
In theory this would be solved by a quick end to the 2 year negotiating time (this time can be cut) and then an immediate rejoining of the UK.
In practice this wont happen, because it would requires unanimous consent, twice, and because the UK's new deal would have to be worse than what they currently have, they might lose their schengen exemption, they would lose their euro exemption.

[oxymoronic]

None of this really matters. The rest of the world only wants to know when the new season of Doctor Who will start and why it was removed from Netflix.

people actually watch that?

[Kuntantee]

and still they still have a huge problem in negotiate the Britt-exit.....You think negotiate with a one large unit is hard, think to individually negotiate with all the nations of Africa.....

Problem in what? Human resources?

[Deleted]

Problem in what? Human resources?

yes - the UK does not have the requisite number of trained people for this task.

[Kuntantee]

yes - the UK does not have the requisite number of trained people for this task.

How do you know this?

[Ripster42]

How do you know this?

Because the brits are questioning if they can even finish negotiations with just the EU in two years. That, and the fact that I don't think even the US has the personnel to renegotiate all of its trade deals if they had to in two years. Look at how long the most recently proposed trade deals took to negotiate. 7 years for tpp.

Edit: TTIP has been going on since july 2013.
Double Edit: TTIP began it's first round of negotiations in july 2013, but really, it had been in the works before then, so even that isn't a long enough estimate.

[Deleted]

How do you know this?

because its a 100+ team of lawyers and diplomats and experts for something that will take around a decade.
Per treaty.
Its not random paper pushing nobodies that can be hired of the street.
If the UK had that kind of staff doing nothing in the civil service, that would be a huge fucking waste of money and brain power.
So they don't.

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Because the brits are questioning if they can even finish negotiations with just the EU in two years. That, and the fact that I don't think even the US has the personnel to renegotiate all of its trade deals if they had to in two years. Look at how long the most recently proposed trade deals took to negotiate. 7 years for tpp.

Edit: TTIP has been going on since july 2013.
Double Edit: TTIP began it's first round of negotiations in july 2013, but really, it had been in the works before then, so even that isn't a long enough estimate.

TTIP is also part N+1 of N series of treaties.
its not starting from scratch.

[Cyberowl]

How do you know this?

Because they are hiring for those positions. The Brexit and the trade deal branch aren't even close to getting their staff together.

If all those deals were made by EU diplomats for decades, you have no qualified staff for your own negotiations.

[Slant]

I doubt the long term consequences will be that serious. Many economists are failing to take into consideration that the UK might seek freer trade with the rest of the world, primarily North America and Africa.

NGDP is more likely to fall in smaller, poorer EU countries that rely on larger ones like the UK or Germany. I would expect the UK to rebound to pre-Brexit GDP growth levels by next year.

Pfft, you're right. What do they know. They're only the guys that are doing the investments talking about investments...

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100 is a joke number for Britain. In fact, it's a joke number for any country with similar demographic figures. Their population is around 65 million. Also, Britain has one of the best foreign departments in the world, certainly the best in Europe.

I wonder why do you think the answer is no.

Yeah, ok... not even sure the EU has enough skilled negotiators capable of doing close to hundred trade deals within a year that was thrown around in this thread already. This isn't some forum dwellers going "No, I want more money!" It's a bit more complicated than that.

[Tinch]

Nope? Most countries are seeing economic growth, of course with the UK suddenly derping some of that growth might slow down a bit, but in the meantime the UK's loss has also become the EU's gain since a lot of businesses from the UK are moving to Brussels or Germany, especially financial businesses.

Except the UK is still predicted to outperform Germany and France both this year and next.

[Deleted]

Isn't all of the EU in recession?

I don't see what has changed...

Spot on...