Russia is seriously running out of cash

[Mavett]

Russia economy was given that it would take a hit from the oil war that USA started.
However, not only it showed resiliance, it will actually start growing from 2017 as world bank indicated.

That article is fearmongering non stop, idiotic of nature.

Russia will be fine, move on©

Now it's the "Oil War", everyone is guilty, just not Russia's shitty petrol station based economy, Russia will not be fine if such a trend continues, deal with it.

[Deleted]

The whole "Russia is running out of money" thing has been posted since forever and has yet to come true and all I see here is just a repeat of the same old story.

Russia has I believe 3 backup funds to cover budget holes. All this article points out is that the 1st one may run out in 2017. Alternatively Russia could give out bonds or obligations to cover budget gaps.

So kind of a misleading headline.

[Deleted]

Russia has I believe 3 backup funds to cover budget holes. All this article points out is that the 1st one may run out in 2017.

What about this.... Russia will start to take funds from already deposited money to cover future pensions to cover existed deflict in 2017, do that sound healthy? But according to you its only one more source of cash.

Alternatively Russia could give out bonds or obligations to cover budget gaps.

So if it was so easy, why do they do it more often? Becuse they have to pay a arm and a leg in intrest....

Russia will never run out of money, but how they get the money coming is of intrest, like make peace to west, sell Siberia to China etc

[bloodmoth13]

Doesnt help when the worlds largest economy sanctions you over trumped up pretexts, then starts an oil war specifically to ruin your country.

They will bounce back, china is pivoting towards russia, US is in a new quagmire in syria (US backed rebels refuse to fight alongside US troops fucking lol), EU is drowning in refugees, gotta say id be much happier there still than in the US or EU atm.

Russia is resilient, they have paid off their countries national dept (good luck with that america) so they can handle a rough patch, they are also expanding their economy into other areas, they have already recognized their overreliance on gas.

[Bakis]

The sooner the better.

[Skroe]

Notice the word SOVEIRGN.

and read what i wrote:



The following is another of their funds:

now cry me a river "boohooo"

31/08/2016 - 339,198 million USD
31/08/2013 - 545,012 million USD (around the very start of Ukraine).

*golfclap*

Thanks for making my case. As usual Ulmita, you're America's most reliable accomplice is exposing Vladmir Putin's Mafia State.

Oh and by the way, Bloomberg's statement stands. 2017 might the Pension reserve fund raided.

Breadlines inc!

[Deleted]

What about this.... Russia will start to take funds from already deposited money to cover future pensions to cover existed deflict in 2017, do that sound healthy? But according to you its only one more source of cash.

Were did I say it was healthy or a source of cash?

So if it was so easy, why do they do it more often? Becuse they have to pay a arm and a leg in intrest....

If you know the answer to your own Question, why even bother posting it? Of course Bonds pay interests. Investors want to earn money. No reason to buy Bonds if the things have the same worth as when you bought them.

Russia will never run out of money, but how they get the money coming is of intrest, like make peace to west, sell Siberia to China etc

Western-Russian relations are cold. But it is hardly close to the point of warfare. And why exactly would Russia sell a Siberia to China? Because of a temporary Budget Issue?

[Skroe]

Western-Russian relations are cold. But it is hardly close to the point of warfare. And why exactly would Russia sell a Siberia to China? Because of a temporary Budget Issue?

Warfare? No. But no matter what a return to the status quo ante is never happening. The United States and Europe have spent most of the past 18 months, once it became clear this is a lasting shift in relations, reactivating Cold War-era organizations and groups specifically to counter Russia across the world. Intelligence Agencies were ordered to dedicate over 10% of their resources and money to Russia in 2016, up from almost nothing. Congress ordered the the reactivation of the Col War era information warfare / anti-propaganda unit. Aside from US military modernization and moving weapons to Europe and that sort of thing, the infrastructure for a long term hostile relationship is being erected around this scaffolding. Even if Russia assented to all Western demands on Ukraine, forgive and forget is simply not in the cards.

Russia's problem is that it making a really terrible bet. We see it with it's Cyberwarfare approach. We see it with Syria. We see it in Ukraine. It's entire strategy is based on a bad bet that the West's threshold for decisive action is very far away, giving Russia much more room to make expansionist moves than it had thought a few years ago.

This is probably accurate of Barack Obama, who would much rather be Prime Minister of Ireland or New Zealand or something rather than the world's only superpower. But Congress? Hillary (his likely successor)? Or hell the US military which is nearly insubordinate over this Syrian ceasefire? Not so. An American shift is coming, and it's one that punches back because litterally the only man constraining such action is history in a few months.

What would this mean? American Cyberwar against Russia. American advanced lethal arms to Ukraine. Ordering Russia to leave Syria and bombing Assad into the dirt. I'm not saying any or all of these will happen, but they are all options that, should the US choose to pursue them - and there is nothing that Russia could do to stop the US from doing that - Russia's position in all three places will be dramatically and severely eroded.

Case in point, the Cyberwar. Russia's cyberwarriors are good. The US's are known to be in a class all their own. The chief constraint is Obama moralizing over "lines" and a concern about exposing methods. But what if Russian interference in American democracy reaches a point that Obama's successors decide that a fair retaliation would be something along the lines of infodumping their decade of research on the finances of Russia's inner circle online? Or remotely destroying Russia computer hardware? Or shutting down critical Russian infrastructure? That may sound dramatic, but during the Cold War, utilizing operatives in Russia, the CIA sabotages Soviet infrastructure and it would be a logical continuation of something we've already done.

The point is, Russia is picking a fight it's hopelessly overmatches on, and carrying on expecting that Obama's foreign policy survives his Presidency. To say that's a misreading of historic proportions is being polite. If Hillary Clinton becomes President, what do you reckon she is more likely to do? Put all this with Putin in the past? Or make sure he pays dearly for it?

Russia doesn't have the resources to enter a multispectrum cold war with the US. It'll destroy itself in the process.

[Uzkin]

The whole "Russia is running out of money" thing has been posted since forever and has yet to come true and all I see here is just a repeat of the same old story.

Russia has I believe 3 backup funds to cover budget holes. All this article points out is that the 1st one may run out in 2017. Alternatively Russia could give out bonds or obligations to cover budget gaps.

So kind of a misleading headline.

Hubcap is a known anti-Russian troll, posting misleading headlines like that. Just a while ago a mod had to change the title of another troll post of his, to a less misleading one.

infracted - minor spam

[jdbond592]

No doubt GREAT LEADER Putin will fix it! He is so strong and loved!


Better get Donald Trump in. Must save Russia.

[Shalcker]

Restructuring the economy to being a resource seller is a massive step backwards, not only for the Russian people, but also for Putin's own designs to influence Eastern European states again.

Which is exactly what isn't happening.
They did need oil price shock to take it seriously (rather then "oh well, wouldn't it be nice?"), but they are doing it.

Foreign reserves can only be used to buy stuff from the issuer of those reserves, in practice. I'm going to guess that the amount is denominated in USD but is largely in RMB or some intermediary currency between Russia and China; the CBR link didn't specify, afaik. Regardless of the particular balancing of those 400 billion dollars worth of reserves, that's less than three months worth of output from the Russian economy. If Russia ever needs to call on it to save the Russian economy, that may in of itself be a lose condition for Russia.

Most of the time it was something like 30-40% USD/EUR (as Eurozone is still our top import/export destination), around 10% GBP, 5-10% Gold, and then small amounts of different other things.

Credibility counts: The US can chug along at 104% GDP, but Argentina is paralyzed at 48%. And, in this regard, Russia's more like Argentina than the USA.

Except when we were hit by "financial" sanctions our corporations just paid back debt - while oil dropped just like for Argentine. Never came anywhere close to "paralyzed".

[Ulmita]

31/08/2016 - 339,198 million USD
31/08/2013 - 545,012 million USD (around the very start of Ukraine).

*golfclap*

Thanks for making my case. As usual Ulmita, you're America's most reliable accomplice is exposing Vladmir Putin's Mafia State.

Oh and by the way, Bloomberg's statement stands. 2017 might the Pension reserve fund raided.

Breadlines inc!

There is an oil war in between as well as a major military modernization. Lastly, the fact that the fund grew by 30 or so billions just in last year and the forecasts of world bank for a 1.3% increase to GDP in 2017 should be clear enough even for you, that the fearmonger of that article OP linked, is bs.

[Anon56]

They should force the rest of the world to use the Rubble as currency for international trade like oil and attack countries when they even dare to think of switching to another currency. Maybe they could afford a gigantic debt supported by the rest of the world like the US.

And you have americans in this thread coming "Maybe they should build a stronger economy" when they don't even know how their own economy works or how they can sustain it.

Russian economy as been shit since decades, it was even worse when Yeltsin the alcoholic (an agreed US puppet) was in power. You can't deny that under Putin the Russian economy has been doing incredibly better. But when you have two superpower hammering you permanently to make sure you don't crawl out of the hole you're in, you do as best as you can.

[segara82]

As someone living in central europe i would prefer more cooporation between the EU and Russia, less dick-measuring and sable rattling. These sanctions do nothing except hurt the little people, barely those in power. As history has proven a good trade-based and tightly knitt economy is a far better deterrent for war than armies showing their newest deadliest toys.
So how about NOT delivering guns/weapons to Ukraine but better help them fight corruption and re-establish a stable goverment and economy?
Shit, if the various intelligence agencies really relocated 10% of their ressources to hold off the 'evul russkis' how about you instead deal with the before mentioned corruption and crime? That should make live much more pleasant and would be cheaper in the long run.
Side-question: Did the US rediscover all the lost funds/cash from Iraq or is some/most of that still missing?

And don't hand the neo-nazi brigades (yes, they got those in the Ukraine) new weapons. Stop it with arming extremists, we already have IS, Al-Nusra and Al-Quaida to deal with (among others). We also got Orban and a few other nationalistic groups in various countries in power or on the rise, no need to arm even more neo-nazis before we get a real war in Europe again.

[Crispin]

First of all, the care for the "little people" is really up to their goverment, secondly, Trade can be a factor for not going to war for most goverments, yet in 1913 global trade was at an all time high and the year after the ww1 started, trade did nothing to prevent ww1 and obviously cant be used as a guarantee to prevent war, thirdly, afaik we do not deliver weapons to Ukraine, not sure how you expect the CIA to fight corruption in Ukraine.... The americans arent too happy about paying for wars thousand of miles away, I'm sure they'll be even less happy about dealing with corruption in countries they cant locate on a map, and I fail to see what money in iraq has got to do with anything? did Putin find the money that was intended for food while he worked as a deputy mayor?

[Forogil]

Old people paid into Social Security; Medicare...not so much.

Actually they didn't pay enough into Social Security; it's underfunded like almost all such systems.

Remember the first one who got social security in the US?
"Ida May Fuller worked for three years under the Social Security program. The accumulated taxes on her salary during those three years was a total of $24.75. Her initial monthly check was $22.54. During her lifetime she collected a total of $22,888.92 in Social Security benefits."

Not her fault - or the fault of other old people; just that pay-as-go systems are attractive to politicians and constantly underfunded.

The article itself is interesting - I was surprised that Russia would run out that soon, compared to Saudi Arabia who had 5 years this spring (unless they reform - or oil prices increase), but still better than Venezuela.

[Berengil]

You want more money for the poor? Let's start with cuts to Medicare and Social Security spending. They're the beast. Oh but wait... liberals never saw a dollar of social spending they never liked. All the more reason to strangle Universal Basic Income in it's demonic crib.

I think, with a careful observation of trends in technology and business, UBI is inevitable.

Increasing use of automation that eliminates low-skilled work and the desire of business for short-term gains over true long term planning leads to UBI, I believe.

It's simply not a good idea to have lots of unskilled workers feeling hopeless. Bad things happen. Things that are far, far worse than Donald Trump.

[Shalcker]

The article itself is interesting - I was surprised that Russia would run out that soon, compared to Saudi Arabia who had 5 years this spring (unless they reform - or oil prices increase), but still better than Venezuela.

We don't really "run out" - not in the same way as Saudi Arabia would anyway.

There are multiple funds earmarked for different purposes and holding different properties that were aligned with those purposes (it is not just "money held in bank"). One of them is running out, and there can be two outcomes - things get better and draw-down stops or slows down (most likely), or if things get worse they will tap another fund.

They already "raided" pension savings before to pay for Crimean accession, so it's far from being "unconceivable" - just unpopular... but Duma elections ended just now, Presidential elections are two years later, 2017 is perfect year to raid pensions if necessary.

[Daerio]

Not enough money? Let's just steal it from the rich to continue paying for the war effort.

If you're willing to steal from pre-funded social security and medicaid, why not steal from the people who actually have money?

[Independent voter]

The IMF does more than give out loans, they give advice as well. Russia could consult with the IMF and see what the IMF has to say.