If Hillary can look presidential, and make Trump look like a bafoon, she'll win. If Trump can pull her down to his level, than Trump will win. If Hillary has any more of her coughing fits, or any other visible health issues, trump will win. If Trump can just manage to look presidential the entire debate, than I believe he'll win. I believe that Hillary probably has a greater chance at winning, but Trump has more paths to victory within the debate.