In February-March 2016, the European Leadership Network contacted its members
– former, present and emerging political, military, and diplomatic leaders from the
broader Europe area – to seek out their opinions regarding the current state of and future
prospects for EU–Russia relations and the pan-European security architecture. The 42
respondents represent a diverse and experienced group of individuals from 20 countries
and all major regions of Europe.
The main findings of the survey can be summarized as follows:
• The pan-European security system is not ideal, but it is worth preserving.
While some modifications were proposed, there was very little support for the creation
of a new system.
• The EU should put its weight behind the OSCE as an instrument for monitoring
and mediating the conflicts in the broader European area.
• A transformation of Russia’s policy, not accommodation with Moscow, should
be the EU’s goal. The current EU policy of making a full resumption of ties and any
future deepening of cooperation with Russia contingent on a change in Russian behaviour received the broadest support.
• The top three areas of potential EU security cooperation with Russia, as identi-
fied by the respondents, should be:
• The Middle East crisis;
• the fight against terrorism and;
• Non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and arms control.
• Regarding the common EU-Russia neighbourhood, cooperation is possible to
envision, but difficult to pursue at the present time.
The majority thought that it is possible to reach a satisfactory modus vivendi with Russia at some point, but Moscow’s policy towards the region remains the main obstacle.
• An overwhelming majority of respondents (85%) remained in favour of maintaining the original linkage of EU sanctions removal with Russia’s actions in
Ukraine.
More specifically, half of the respondents supported the position that the sanctions
should be gradually phased out only in return for progress on the implementation of
the Minsk 2 agreements. There was substantial backing for the EU’s engagement with the Eurasian Economic Union, but most of the respondents opted for a conditional offer, with EU-
EEU cooperation being made dependant on the modification of Russian behaviour.
• With regard to the sufficiency of protection of EU member states against hybrid
warfare through EU/NATO cooperation, the survey revealed widely diverging
assessments.
While 26% considered the actions taken so far by NATO and the EU as adequate, 29%
thought them insufficient.